US OIL

[Caseynotes]

While the daily chart still presents as very bullish it's coming up to a long term support level which may turn into resistance. Big OPEC meeting Thursday so may see sideways movement til then.

[trade247]

Also I think there is a lot to say for the 'contrarian' trade to what the  mass media news is saying. When all the news articles are saying 'BUY' or 'we're at the top' its probably worth looking at reducing your longs and selling.

When it comes to oil I have had the following emails today alone...

From IG - "Oil is leading commodity price gains finding a catalyst for the move from in fighting in Libya, which threatens to disrupt global oil supply."

From Reuters - "Oil prices rose to their highest level since November 2018, driven upwards by OPEC's ongoing supply cuts, U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, and strong U.S. jobs data."

From Bloomberg - "Crude is close to the highest level in five months this morning, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate for May delivery trading at $63.45 by 5:40 a.m. Eastern Time as the escalation of fighting in Libya increases supply concerns. In other oil-market news today, there is huge interest in Saudi Aramco’s bond sale. Aramco Chairman and Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told Bloomberg TV this morning that $30 billion of orders have been received. The company is expected to offer at least $10 billion, with pricing as soon as tomorrow"

Blonde Money - "Thrives as oil producers sell futures to protect themselves from price falls and many like to speculate on the market. There is over and under supply and the level of stocks links the spot (immediate) oil price to the futures price. Backwardation is where futures prices are below spot and contango where they are above. Today, see chart below, OPEC cut production, demand is picking up and because of backwardation, suppliers run down inventory. Speculators need a high risk premium as ample stocks dampen price volatility and the reverse is true, low stocks amplify volatility. The curve says high prices will not last yet Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, needs $80 per barrel to balance its budget, a dilemma" 

[Caseynotes]

"OPEC and its partners are unlikely to decide on their output policy in April as it would be too early to get a clear picture of the impact of their supply cuts on the market by then, three OPEC sources said on Monday. The sources said the production policy by the so-called OPEC+ alliance is expected to be agreed on in June with an extension of the pact the likely scenario so far, but much depends on the extent of U.S. sanctions on both OPEC members Iran and Venezuela. “So far the likely decision is to extend the agreement in June. Nothing much is planned for April, just to discuss the OPEC and non-OPEC (cooperation pact),” one OPEC source ... (full story)

 

[Caseynotes]

Oil cruises up through the possible resistance level mentioned in the OP this morning with help from Trump who will now need to talk it down again 😂

[phillo]

Books for Saudi Aramco's USD bond are reportedly now  over $85bln ! Wonder if that has any influence?

[phillo]

[Caseynotes]

9 minutes ago, elle said:

Books for Saudi Aramco's USD bond are reportedly now  over $85bln ! Wonder if that has any influence?

I did see that go through but I've no idea if it would impact on price or not.

[Caseynotes]

Interesting insight into the order book;

[trade247]

and so it pushes on.

another short term resistance level finding it hard to break.

[trade247]

theres the pull back on the 1 hour (to marry the chart above on the right).

[Caseynotes]

Yes, still looking for support, there was a report out this morning that OPEC may abandon quotas and just go all out for market share.

[Caseynotes]

"Further, markets continue to weigh in the weekend’s comments by the Russian Finance Minister Siluanov, citing that Russia and OPEC may decide to boost production to fight for market share with the United States but this would push oil prices as low as $40 per barrel."

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-drops-1-to-test-63-amid-mixed-signals-on-global-supply-201904151027?utm_source=tco&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=fxstreetnews

[phillo]

great interview in my opinion - posted here due to the discussion about US shale oil      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPjUCaueRLw

[Caseynotes]

46 minutes ago, elle said:

great interview in my opinion - posted here due to the discussion about US shale oil      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPjUCaueRLw

Ta, won't get through it all in one sitting but interesting stuff.  Laughed at the  " ... stocks move for a reason, when people don't want to believe what stocks are telling them they just ignore it" ... 

[phillo]

26 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Ta, won't get through it all in one sitting but interesting stuff.  Laughed at the  " ... stocks move for a reason, when people don't want to believe what stocks are telling them they just ignore it" ... 

you may like the bit about TESLA then & what he compares it to

[trade247]

thanks for the Real Vision video.

its almost annoying these sort of clips - you can't have it on in the back ground whilst you're working or doing other stuff. You really need to concentrate to get the value out of it.

Will have to set some time aside!

[Caseynotes]

19 minutes ago, elle said:

you may like the bit about TESLA then & what he compares it to

...  what, Tesla could be the next Blackberry, oh noooo  😧

     

[phillo]

48 minutes ago, cryptotrader said:

thanks for the Real Vision video.

its almost annoying these sort of clips - you can't have it on in the back ground whilst you're working or doing other stuff. You really need to concentrate to get the value out of it.

Will have to set some time aside!

If you "liked that one"   here's another I thought was good   - it covers a lot of stuff   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrDMobbBeyg

[Caseynotes]

Oil shaping up to try for a break higher into clear space.

[trade247]

Oil hits 2019 high above $72 on China growth, lower U.S. inventories

• OPEC supply cuts, U.S. sanctions support oil prices
• China's March refinery throughput up 3.2% year/year
• China's Q1 GDP rises 6.4 percent year/year
• U.S. crude stocks drop by 3.1 mln barrels last week - API

[Caseynotes]

Oil heading towards 70.00, has a liking for resting up at round numbers as has been pointed out before. Big recent boost from the US halting the Iran oil export waivers.

The Chinese are not happy and may well make waves as they import a lot from Iran, so may not be all plain sailing ahead.

Daily chart; 

[Caseynotes]

Looks to be setting up for a push higher on the 1 hour;

[Caseynotes]

Big drop in oil down to support at 63.124, needs to hold here or a drop to 60.00 looks likely.

[trade247]

Like that new chart view withthe smaller one in bottomright. Good insight. 

Trump at it again 😂

[Caseynotes]

I'd seen the IG mini chart app for mt4 before but not used it, it does give extra incite when quickly glancing through the large time frame charts.

[phillo]

an analysis of recent action  FWIW

[phillo]

[phillo]

[Caseynotes]

Just to update this chart. US Oil has recently put in a lower high and now a lower low but wait, does that automatically mean it has turned bearish? Would you automatically assume a reversal? What would be the most probable scenario from just looking at the chart structure?

The most probable next phase is always going to be consolidation, that's a statistical fact, on any chart. V reversals tend to be caused by a fundamental shift and are relatively rare. As we have seen from the SSI thread, trying to pick tops and bottoms is the number one strategy for retail clients, the same guys who are wrong 80% of the time.

So looking at just the chart structure where would you expect the bulls to be gathering to mount a serious challenge after their profit taking (and if the fundamentals were encouraging enough for them to even try)? NB; Oil likes round numbers.

 

 

 

   

[dmedin]

Do you actually place any trades or do you just 'analyse'?

I find it incredibly difficult to take seriously people who don't trade.  I am still in two minds about whether TA is a lot of hocus-pocus, because I've never actually seen someone prove that they can use it to make consistently profitable trades.