US OIL

[Caseynotes]

Who are you talking to? I've been sat here 6 years full time. This forum only started at the end of 2015, I've been posting continuously since March 2016. Who, in any way shape or form is interested in proving any thing to you?  

[Caseynotes]

US Oil catches a bounce off 60.00, what a surprise who could of seen that coming, er ... well I could, see post of 24hr ago.

[Caseynotes]

On 26/04/2019 at 15:19, Caseynotes said:

Big drop in oil down to support at 63.124, needs to hold here or a drop to 60.00 looks likely.

 

On 05/05/2019 at 10:48, Caseynotes said:

So looking at just the chart structure where would you expect the bulls to be gathering to mount a serious challenge after their profit taking (and if the fundamentals were encouraging enough for them to even try)? NB; Oil likes round numbers.

US oil back up to 63.00 yesterday after the bounce up off 60.00, need to check here and look for a clue as to next  direction.

[Caseynotes]

Oil waiting on the trade talks, will the world need more or less in the immediate future? Oil should get a lift on any deal being announced and sink on dispute escalation.

[Caseynotes]

US Oil threatening to drop below support at 60.00. Next level down is around 58.00.

Edited May 23, 2019 by Caseynotes

[Caseynotes]

Oil tags the 58.00 level in 2 hours flat, it's all going risk off.

[Caseynotes]

58 holding;

[Caseynotes]

Crude oil producers 1965 - 2017 video infographic;

(if it loads)

https://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/D7wzVTEVsAAv1YD.mp4

[Guest bandrew]

Brent expiry day today, with a new physical program longer than June. The Dated Brent market has had a spectacular rally in the past 3 weeks, but most of the length has priced out now and the market is not looking to position further. Additionally, weak flat price is providing the environment for a “toppy market” so we expect high volatility in the next few days. Considerable volume on the sell side of both flat price and spreads this morning, which are moving together for the first time in weeks. This is indicative of longs exiting their positions

[phillo]

50% (ish) retrace in the front contract & an area of potential support

[Guest PandaFace]

Thoughts on ultra sell off and 40 bucks oil @elle ?

[Caseynotes]

We also need @elle to start a new Gold thread as well, eg 'Gold heading for ????' 🙂

Edited June 1, 2019 by Caseynotes

[phillo]

7 hours ago, PandaFace said:

Thoughts on ultra sell off and 40 bucks oil @elle ?

was this the message ?    In my amateur opinion , things are being engineered to allow the FED to cut rates. That was some selling in oil this week so more to come

[phillo]

5 hours ago, Caseynotes said:

We also need @elle to start a new Gold thread as well, eg 'Gold heading for ????' 🙂

like I said "still in that channel"  

[phillo]

On ‎31‎/‎05‎/‎2019 at 10:54, elle said:

50% (ish) retrace in the front contract & an area of potential support

what was support, sometimes becomes resistance

[phillo]

On ‎03‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 21:15, elle said:

what was support, sometimes becomes resistance

Oil did not participate in " Turnaround Tuesday" 

[phillo]

8 hours ago, elle said:

Oil did not participate in " Turnaround Tuesday" 

so ,   down it goes

[Caseynotes]

Looking to confirm 54.73 as support turned resistance (red), this was the weekly support level beaten on the May 31st. Recent support at 50.69, current price 54.20

Daily chart;

[Caseynotes]

US Oil continues down towards support at 50.69. US inventories today at 3:30. Current price 52.48.

Daily chart;

[Guest backwardation]

Looks to me like a H&S (starting June 5th) that's about to complete the last down leg.  But what happens after that?  Crude hasn't been following the SPX up.

[Caseynotes]

9 minutes ago, backwardation said:

Looks to me like a H&S (starting June 5th) that's about to complete the last down leg.  But what happens after that?  Crude hasn't been following the SPX up.

Hi @backwardation,  not really seeing a case for a H&S pattern as the overall price action would need to be heading into it from below not above, there is a case for an inverse H&S if we get a turn around and a break of the neckline. 

Yes, Oil is a bit out of step with the S&P at the mo, see weekly chart comparison second down.

[Guest backwardation]

@Caseynotes Very well spotted sir!  

[Caseynotes]

42 minutes ago, backwardation said:

Looks to me like a H&S (starting June 5th) that's about to complete the last down leg.  But what happens after that?  Crude hasn't been following the SPX up.

@backwardation, good point about oil and S&P being out of sync though there are always going to be adjustments especially on the lesser time frames, also interesting is that gold isn't playing ball at the moment either as it heads higher. Money is being shifted around on a continual basis it's not always easy to keep track of it, the more eyes out the better.

[Guest backwardation]

@Caseynotes  This could explain gold to some extent:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-10/china-snaps-up-more-gold-in-six-month-spree-as-tensions-escalate

[Caseynotes]

Just now, backwardation said:

@Caseynotes  This could explain gold to some extent:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-10/china-snaps-up-more-gold-in-six-month-spree-as-tensions-escalate

Could be @backwardation, I've seen similar reports in a few places over the last few days and indeed Govts do go on spending sprees esp China, India and Russia but that's probably past as usually they buy at the low rather than the high ie they're smarter than Gordon Brown who sells at the low ☹️ 

[phillo]

On ‎03‎/‎06‎/‎2019 at 21:15, elle said:

what was support, sometimes becomes resistance

resistance sorta held

[Caseynotes]

US Oil checks support around 50.69 and on it's way to check resistance up at 54.73, currently at 53.00.

[Caseynotes]

The oil tanker news spreading now is coming out a bit late, the Iranian (pob perps) news agency released the news early this morning so the initial price surge in oil has all ready happened.

 

[Caseynotes]

Reports that torpedoes were used in the attack on two oil tankers marks a big escalation of conflict in the sea of Oman if true.

[Caseynotes]

Luckily Iranian ships were on hand to rescue 44 crew members from the two stricken vessels.