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See if that blue area holds for a potential reversal up & GAP fill

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Posted (edited)

That's interesting, can you explain?

I saw this from Reuters and don't understand. 

Quote

USD/JPY's "bear trap" below the major 109.23 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of the 104.10 to 112.40 2019 rise, increases the odds of a bigger recovery occurring.

 

Edited by dmedin

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12 minutes ago, dmedin said:

That's interesting, can you explain?

I saw this from Reuters and don't understand. 

 

This is my guess

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Okay thanks.  I didn't think to draw a Fib from the flash crash low.  😁

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On the weekly chart ... who would be taking a long position based off this picture?

usdyen.jpg

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@dmedin a lot of FX is a bit scary at the moment, I think waiting for some kind of signal on a lower timeframe chart is better for me

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In all honesty trading on weekly and monthly charts is best left to hedge fund managers. 

On the H4 you've got 3 x failures at 110.030 then a failure at the pivot, I'd be looking lower rather than higher at least until there was a breakout past such strong resistance.

image.thumb.png.924be244f8eb8621302edb1685301812.png

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17 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

In all honesty trading on weekly and monthly charts is best left to hedge fund managers. 

On the H4 you've got 3 x failures at 110.030 then a failure at the pivot, I'd be looking lower rather than higher at least until there was a breakout past such strong resistance.

image.thumb.png.924be244f8eb8621302edb1685301812.png

 

 

Joshua Mahoney said something similar this morning and was looking at 30 minute charts in FX pairs.

I don't have a lot of confidence in trading in short-term time frames and there are a lot of 'sharks' pushing day trading stuff.

And yes longer range stuff is better for hedge fund managers with deep pockets.

So ... I would probably be better off doing something else.  😁

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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I don't have a lot of confidence in trading in short-term time frames and there are a lot of 'sharks' pushing day trading stuff.

The H4 chart is quite a good one for medium term trades lasting 2 or 3 days so not really day trading and the stops are not so big as to be weighing too heavily on the account.

Not sure who these 'sharks' are what you mention, of far greater concern to you should be all the bs'ers.

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20 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

The H4 chart is quite a good one for medium term trades lasting 2 or 3 days so not really day trading and the stops are not so big as to be weighing too heavily on the account.

Not sure who these 'sharks' are what you mention, of far greater concern to you should be all the bs'ers.

You're quite right. :D

I'm going to practice this approach and go for it.

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Interesting development, usdjpy broke key resistance that's been in place since early May on this 4th attempt.

Why did that happen? There was a surge in US indices on the US open so money came out of ultra safe Yen and went into stocks.

Not a totally convincing break though because come end of day some decided to reduce risk for the weekend and sent money back the other way but the dollar bulls did manage to keep the close above the break.

So what happens now? That will depend on whether there are any developments in the trade war, a worsening situation will send price back down but if there's no bad news big traders are expecting price to keep rising.

How do you know that? Because the big traders wouldn't have bothered to push price though resistance in the first place otherwise 🙄

So what do I do now? Well personally I'd be refreshing my memory of Cred's 'Entry Triggers' video I remember seeing in the 'Technical Analysis' thread. 

  

image.thumb.png.8718b451f51fb272d9ed248337cfc5f0.png

 

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USDJPY retesting the breakout level now so looking for a bounce and continuation upward.

image.thumb.png.52a88b53433bb02f04963a5eb6920c15.png

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Returns to resistance level with a bit of a thump but a useful demonstration of market memory, resistance turned support.

image.thumb.png.7faaf69896ed0a9ea9833ad378e31cf5.png 

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110,000 wasn't able to hold for long, looking for support now at 109.700.

image.thumb.png.677ca1d017f85672786ebf884aee1481.png

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