Are we in a commodity super cycle (and heading down)?

[trade247]

the argument seems to be a resounding yes from VC - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/what-is-a-commodity-super-cycle/

Edited August 5, 2019 by cryptotrader

[Guest biglivetrade]

Yesterday I have taken a buy call in crude oil at 3890 and exited from the call 10:10 pm at 3957

Total Profit: 67

[Mercury]

Interesting analysis @cryptotrader but not quite sure what to make of it.  The individual commodity patterns are not moving together, sometime Oil peaks around the aggregate top and sometimes it is something else.  I am not convinced that all commodities move alike, I think agri and livestock has very different drivers to base metals and Oil.  Also looks like they have lumped precious metals in with base metals, which is not correct in my opinion as PMs are a separate category (Silver is constantly argued on that, is it a precious metal or a poor industrial metal?  The price charts say PM so that's that for me).

I can't speak for agri and livestock, I only know that things like coffee and rubber are too cheap for farmers to earn sufficient income to keep them in the business.  Others may wish to chip in on the discussion on agri etc, but to me Oil does appear to be bearish, although there is a case for a short bearish phase followed by a strong rally (See chart below).  I have previously shared my bullish stance and analysis on PMs so won't reprice that again here.  Copper is an interesting one.  I am seeing a bearish phase in progress and it could breakout of of long term support into a massive deflationary bear move, which would align with a major deflationary recession.  Alternatively, if the recession (which is in my view a certainty, just a question of when the markets crash in recognition of the fact we are already there) is mostly a financial one (i.e. Central bank policy and Fiat money printing driven) then we may get a flight to safe haven of "real things", in which case it will not just be precious metals that appear precious.  This will be a hoarding mentality that could also drag other necessary commodities like agri up too.

In the end I prefer to look at each market and decide on its intrinsic merits rather than trust to notions of commodities as having a group effect.