Jump to content

Are we in a commodity super cycle (and heading down)?


trade247

Recommended Posts

Interesting analysis @cryptotrader but not quite sure what to make of it.  The individual commodity patterns are not moving together, sometime Oil peaks around the aggregate top and sometimes it is something else.  I am not convinced that all commodities move alike, I think agri and livestock has very different drivers to base metals and Oil.  Also looks like they have lumped precious metals in with base metals, which is not correct in my opinion as PMs are a separate category (Silver is constantly argued on that, is it a precious metal or a poor industrial metal?  The price charts say PM so that's that for me).

I can't speak for agri and livestock, I only know that things like coffee and rubber are too cheap for farmers to earn sufficient income to keep them in the business.  Others may wish to chip in on the discussion on agri etc, but to me Oil does appear to be bearish, although there is a case for a short bearish phase followed by a strong rally (See chart below).  I have previously shared my bullish stance and analysis on PMs so won't reprice that again here.  Copper is an interesting one.  I am seeing a bearish phase in progress and it could breakout of of long term support into a massive deflationary bear move, which would align with a major deflationary recession.  Alternatively, if the recession (which is in my view a certainty, just a question of when the markets crash in recognition of the fact we are already there) is mostly a financial one (i.e. Central bank policy and Fiat money printing driven) then we may get a flight to safe haven of "real things", in which case it will not just be precious metals that appear precious.  This will be a hoarding mentality that could also drag other necessary commodities like agri up too.

In the end I prefer to look at each market and decide on its intrinsic merits rather than trust to notions of commodities as having a group effect.

Brent-Monthly_080819.thumb.png.6adf75bd219e819b28df9b6f4e6b32d8.pngBrent-Weekly_080819.thumb.png.62ea1e954d2b63c12ae098d38e71baac.pngHG-Monthly_080819.thumb.png.70240f8c7d920d3a8e5df910f5677da9.pngHG-Monthly_080819A.thumb.png.c794fb865bf1152bc67a7c58f4fd3c61.pngHG-Weekly_080819.thumb.png.ac6d1ecd8bbdd29cf0247b3f6f1fa41e.pngHG-Daily_080819.thumb.png.9f2415df896ee7312ee886661e58b359.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,303
    • Total Posts
      90,961
    • Total Members
      41,435
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Jas11
    Joined 08/02/23 18:53
  • Posts

    • thanks Andy, will checkout your Excel Add-In (but a bit later, as I have to clear a few things first)  
    • Look Ahead to 09/02/23: US Initial jobless claims; AZN, ULVR, LYFT earnings Hot on the heels of surprisingly strong US jobs numbers, we get initial jobless claims data. AstraZeneca’s (AZN) pipeline will be in focus. Plus, Unilever (ULVR) Credit Suisse (CSGN) and Lyft (LYFT) also report. Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Wednesday 08 February 2023          
    • Since USD/JPY has given a technical sell signal, we would like to go short the cross at ¥130.85 with a downside target at ¥126.50 and a stop-loss just above Monday’s high at ¥132.95.        
×
×
  • Create New...