Jump to content

Are we in a commodity super cycle (and heading down)?


trade247

Recommended Posts

Interesting analysis @cryptotrader but not quite sure what to make of it.  The individual commodity patterns are not moving together, sometime Oil peaks around the aggregate top and sometimes it is something else.  I am not convinced that all commodities move alike, I think agri and livestock has very different drivers to base metals and Oil.  Also looks like they have lumped precious metals in with base metals, which is not correct in my opinion as PMs are a separate category (Silver is constantly argued on that, is it a precious metal or a poor industrial metal?  The price charts say PM so that's that for me).

I can't speak for agri and livestock, I only know that things like coffee and rubber are too cheap for farmers to earn sufficient income to keep them in the business.  Others may wish to chip in on the discussion on agri etc, but to me Oil does appear to be bearish, although there is a case for a short bearish phase followed by a strong rally (See chart below).  I have previously shared my bullish stance and analysis on PMs so won't reprice that again here.  Copper is an interesting one.  I am seeing a bearish phase in progress and it could breakout of of long term support into a massive deflationary bear move, which would align with a major deflationary recession.  Alternatively, if the recession (which is in my view a certainty, just a question of when the markets crash in recognition of the fact we are already there) is mostly a financial one (i.e. Central bank policy and Fiat money printing driven) then we may get a flight to safe haven of "real things", in which case it will not just be precious metals that appear precious.  This will be a hoarding mentality that could also drag other necessary commodities like agri up too.

In the end I prefer to look at each market and decide on its intrinsic merits rather than trust to notions of commodities as having a group effect.

Brent-Monthly_080819.thumb.png.6adf75bd219e819b28df9b6f4e6b32d8.pngBrent-Weekly_080819.thumb.png.62ea1e954d2b63c12ae098d38e71baac.pngHG-Monthly_080819.thumb.png.70240f8c7d920d3a8e5df910f5677da9.pngHG-Monthly_080819A.thumb.png.c794fb865bf1152bc67a7c58f4fd3c61.pngHG-Weekly_080819.thumb.png.ac6d1ecd8bbdd29cf0247b3f6f1fa41e.pngHG-Daily_080819.thumb.png.9f2415df896ee7312ee886661e58b359.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      23,564
    • Total Posts
      96,862
    • Total Members
      44,138
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    avocadotoast
    Joined 29/11/23 04:20
  • Posts

    • Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge Daily Chart, 29 November 23, XRP/ U.S. dollar(XRPUSD) XRPUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter Trend Mode: Corrective Structure: Triangle Position: Wave ((E)) Direction Next higher Degrees: wave 4 of Impulse Wave Cancel invalid level: Details: the Movement within a triangle pattern XRP/ U.S. dollar(XRPUSD)Trading Strategy: Zigzag pattern correction, we have Wave A completed and prices developing in Wave B before entering a downside move in Wave C, which is likely to test the 0.42987 level. XRP/ U.S. dollar(XRPUSD)Technical Indicators: The price is above the MA200 indicating an uptrend, Wave Oscillators a Bearish Momentum. TradingLounge Analyst: Kittiampon Somboonsod, CEWA Source : TradingLounge.com get trial here!         Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge 4H Chart, 29 November 23, XRP/ U.S. dollar(XRPUSD) XRPUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter Trend Mode: Corrective Structure: Zigzag Position: Wave C Direction Next higher Degrees: wave (Z) of triple Corrective Wave Cancel invalid level: 0.52954 Details: : the five-wave decline in Wave c XRP/ U.S. dollar(XRPUSD)Trading Strategy: Zigzag pattern correction, we have Wave A completed and prices developing in Wave B before entering a downside move in Wave C, which is likely to test the 0.42987 level. XRP/ U.S. dollar(XRPUSD)Technical Indicators: The price is above the MA200 indicating an uptrend, Wave Oscillators a Bearish Momentum.      
    • TradingLounge's Commodity Market Update: Favorable Trading Opportunities in Gold and Silver Persist; We Maintain and Expand Our Positions in These Markets. Uranium Shows Upward Movement in Wave 3, Indicating a Substantial Bullish Trend for Long-Term Investment. Natural Gas Continues Its Downward Trend, While Crude Oil Prices Face Restraints Due to Saudi Arabia's Strategy for Higher Prices. Our Long Trade in Crude Oil is Now in a Promising Position with Reduced Risks. The USD DXY Approaches its 61.8% Retracement Level, Expected to Find Support. Yields Could Have Reached a Peak as TLT Bonds Show an Inverse Low. Video Chapters 00:00 Bitcoin (BTC)  08:40 US Dollar Index, DXY 11:15 TLT Bonds. US Gov Bonds 10 Yr Yields 15:50 Precious Metals: Spot Gold  / US Spot Silver / XGD and Gold Stocks US / ASX 25:19 Base Metals: XME ETF, Iron Ore, Copper. Uranium URA. 31:08 Energy: XLE ETF / Crude Oil / Natural Gas  40:15 End Analyst Peter Mathers TradingLounge™ Australian Financial Services Licence - AFSL 317817 Source: tradinglounge.com  Access Trial here  
    • Because of this, it's wise for traders to thoroughly investigate exchanges before choosing one. I exclusively deal with cryptocurrency exchanges that have declared proof of reserve in the wake of the unfortunate events that saw some go bankrupt and others hack. Because of what I've heard traders say about Bitget and the fact that it met my requirements, I had to start using it right away. Therefore, I'd advise DYOR to choose whatever best meets your needs.
×
×
  • Create New...
us