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Are you sure it's all going swimmingly?

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Another record broken, as the Dow breaks 28k, another high goes higher. The Bulls are sure the only way is up. 

Regarding the China trade talks: are they really going so well? Wall street thinks so, but Shanghai is not as convinced. Maybe they sense the trouble in Honk Kong is not really over, or maybe they don't trust the eminent Mr Trump? Curious how there is little mention of the troubles in HK when discussing China trade talks, as if it were an inconvenient irrelevance. Or an elephant in the room? Or the next Tiananmen square? Curious indeed. As is the disregard of the ever widening Federal deficit hitting $134 billion last month.  Mere peanuts?

It would appear, it is the time of the Bull.  

But after the November figure fest and Xmas bump, winter will be upon us. The time of the bears?  Or more unchecked expansion, profit and positivity? I am hedging my bets, even if the hedges are costing me margin.  Either things will change or I miss out on my Xmas and years bonus by being overly cautious and sceptical. 

 

 

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Of course you should always be cautious.  But why trade against a trend?

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    • yes stops are a different story, though I might use prior swing levels for targets I prefer stops to be closer to the entry but appreciate their are many schools of thought. Some like very wide stops because getting direction right is easier than getting the exact entry place right so a wide stop provides leeway. I prefer to just get out early if price turns against and just keep looking, sometimes it takes a couple of bites before getting it right. Probably depends on how much time you have to keep watching the chart.
    • I tried fundamental analysis for years and its was pointless from a trading perspective (well for me anyway). long term investment sure . It takes ages and market just doesn't do what it says on the tin.  I see that many pro traders just focus on a few stocks for their whole career, maybe that's the way to go. Hard to know  Although it seems that everything is equally difficult. I never try FX as I know diddlysquat about that.     I have given up reading books, sick to death of those cherry picked charts and all the fluff like "trade at the start of trend" How the *** are you supposed to know with any degree confidence  that a trend is starting ? The $64,000 question which they all skip over.  Also the other usual  one is that "markets only trend of 20% of time". I could never understand that. Change the time frame and you can find trends  everywhere. 
    • Ha yes, yesterday's S&P candle looks a bit different from when I last looked last night. Dow bull flag on yesterday's high. FTSE and S&P daily. Dax and Dow H1 charts;
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