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GBP pairs look like have put in a tradeable bottom


jbtrader

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Hey folks,

 

Following the BOE decision or non-decision last night I really feel we should be looking at the GBP pairs.

 

GBPNZD looks the strongest for now.

 

GBPAUD, GBPCAD, GBPJPY .........they all left gaps following the Brexit result that could well and truly be filled in this next move.

 

The gaps are still all a fair bit higher than current prices. 

 

Yesterday's daily reversal on the Pound is sending a strong signal - to me anyway.

 

I'm long GBPNZD from this morning. It seemed the strongest.

 

Cheers,

 

JB.

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What time frame are you seeing gaps on ?  I only see a gap on GBPUSD on the hourly timeframe, which is likely to provide a resistance zone for the rally.  My big picture view is Bearish so looking for the turn back down rather than a rally.  Are you suggesting the reverse of this or just short term bullish?

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Just so I am sure I get you , you are saying the range is 12800 - 13540 unless or until there is a breach right?  And I am forecasting a breach of the upper limit to post a retrace high with gap closure before a resumption of the dominant (I think) trend down.

 

Are those two incompatible to you?  As in if there is a breach of your upper limit are you then Bullish?

 

 

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Ok great thanks for that.  Yeah it is comforting that two different approaches can produce a similar result.  I think my small retrace to wave 4 is still happening and might turn back up near the resistance zone (now support) at my wave A.  So my view is that today we will see a continuation of the current rally to stronger resistance zones any any dips are buy opportunities if you like a short term play.  As for me, having ridden the rally up to A I am now content to wait for the Shorting opportunity.

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Ok  I see where you are coming from and broadly agree.  I only look at GBPUSD and GBPAUD of the crosses you mentioned so can only speak to them, plus AUDUSD of course.

 

I fully agree on GBPUSD gap relevance, see separate thread on that where I believe the Gap closure will represent the turning point back down on that pair.  I'm only seeking to Short that pair at the right time rather than day trade up as there is always a chance that the gaps are so-called continuation gaps and will not be closed.  If that is the case then it presages a strong drop, which is what some of us are forecasting so that fits and therefore needs to be a scenario that is guarded against in my view.

 

Regarding GBPAUD I find it hard to believe it will carry far enough to close the gap as that would require a fairly strong rally in GBPUSD and a fall in AUDUSD.  Having said that I am forecasting both of those things, it only depends on timing and strength as to whether this will also result in the required GBPAUD rally to close that gap.  Once again that uncertainty is enough for me to stay out and seek the Short when the situation becomes clearer.

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So true :) 

 

GBPUSD back on its way up trying to retest 13400 again. Usual mid afternoon leg up I reckon, ahead of Carney. And then god knows what.

 

I doubt many would've been long prior to BoE's decision yesterday. But yes, Friday syndrome will always be there. 

 

Still waiting by the sidelines looking for the next big move either way..

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