GBP/JPY

[dmedin]

Saw article on DailyFX, a bullish pattern.  Have no idea why that might be - viruses in the East, and less chance of a rate cut in Jolly Old England perhaps?

[dmedin]

Credit also: https://www.babypips.com/trading/forex-charts-20200214

[Caseynotes]

7 hours ago, dmedin said:

Saw article on DailyFX, a bullish pattern.  Have no idea why that might be - viruses in the East, and less chance of a rate cut in Jolly Old England perhaps?

so different people will see different aspects in any chart and award different ratings of importance. The 'bullish pattern' is solely concerned with chart technicals and not fundamentals.

I would read the above chart as seeing the sustained bearish attack on the support level (141) has been beaten off, at least for now,  with the bulls breaking the down trend line and putting in a recent higher low and then a higher high and will now be looking to attack the next resistance level (Fib 50). Near term bullish.

[dmedin]

I've put my money on the table, gone long.🤠

[Caseynotes]

4 minutes ago, dmedin said:

I've put my money on the table, gone long.🤠

may not like one indicator but as a group the dashboard looks very bullish.

[dmedin]

Well.  It's not a bullish pattern but it 'appears' to have gone in a bullish direction.  Let's see.

[Caseynotes]

8 minutes ago, dmedin said:

Well.  It's not a bullish pattern but it 'appears' to have gone in a bullish direction.  Let's see.

?what's not bullish about it, it's broken the down trend line and the triangle and the wedge to the upside. Has, rather than 'appears' to have, or am I looking at the wrong chart 🙂

[dmedin]

Here we go ... big bearish move underway, let's see if my stop holds 😄

Edited February 17, 2020 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

Japan just cancelled their annual marathon due to virus spread fears and they have the Olympics coming up while UK 'confidence in household finances' just hit a record high, what could possibly go wrong? 😳

H4 chart with ADX crossing dots.

 

[dmedin]

Well sh!t, one of the  Tories must have said something extreme and unhinged about Europe again.  😉

I got stopped out and I've nearly run out of money.  IG can you lend me some 😄 😄 😄 😄 😄 😄

Edited February 18, 2020 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

ok unfortunate but what lessons were learned from the trade review?

[dmedin]

Lesson learned: don't trade this pair again ...

In fact, avoid GBP altogether.  At least until BREXIT GETS DONE by the Prime  Racist.

Edited February 18, 2020 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

Just now, dmedin said:

Lesson learned: don't trade this pair again ...

not really a very hard look at the setup and the entry, what was good, what was bad and what to consider going forward. Did you stick to your rules for entry, do you have any rules, what actually went wrong if anything?

[dmedin]

I've demonstrated for anyone looking that you can plan and have rationales and limit your risk and use TA and still lose money hand over first.  That's my good deed for the day.  Maybe I've done enough to get into heaven and God can let me die now and put me out of my depression?

Edited February 18, 2020 by dmedin

[Caseynotes]

yes but what about the actual trade review, you know, the one you do after every trade? what actually was wrong with the set up or entry or was it all good and you are happy that you did everything right and the fail was just down to probability?

[dmedin]

4 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

yes but what about the actual trade review, you know, the one you do after every trade? what actually was wrong with the set up or entry or was it all good and you are happy that you did everything right and the fail was just down to probability?

 

I think so - waited for a dip after the breakout from the triangle.

[dmedin]

Here: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-japan-economy-boj-analysis/recession-risk-forces-boj-to-row-back-on-inflation-goal-idUKKBN20C0FF

 

Potential conclusion: only trade the FX if you're following these kinds of developments.  The idea that charts are all you need isn't true.

[Caseynotes]

12 minutes ago, dmedin said:

 

I think so - waited for a dip after the breakout from the triangle.

fair enough, what about in-trade management, you would have recognised the FTA (first trouble area) which was going to be the immediate prior high before the dip, you would prefer to see a strong power move through that level but if not at least tentative probing but a rejection is a big signal the bulls were just not strong enough. So from there you should perhaps have been thinking escape. There is often no need to let a trade run on to the stop, often a trade will come back and test the entry where you could hope to see reloading but if not probably worth just shutting it down in most cases.

[dmedin]

3 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

fair enough, what about in-trade management, you would have recognised the FTA (first trouble area) which was going to be the immediate prior high before the dip, you would prefer to see a strong power move through that level but if not at least tentative probing but a rejection is a big signal the bulls were just not strong enough. So from there you should perhaps have been thinking escape. There is often no need to let a trade run on to the stop, often a trade will come back and test the entry where you could hope to see reloading but if not probably worth just shutting it down in most cases.

I was thinking escape, but I was also thinking give it room to breathe.

Bottom line is I get kicked whatever I do 🙂

 

[dmedin]

It'll probably go on up from here. 🙂

[Caseynotes]

Just now, dmedin said:

I was thinking escape, but I was also thinking give it room to breathe.

Bottom line is I get kicked whatever I do 🙂

 

again down to probabilities, rejection at the FTA then rejection again at the original entry point is usually enough to persuade it's not going to work and so bail and sit back and watch, if the bulls rallied then there was the chance of a breakout entry passed that FTA.

[Caseynotes]

3 minutes ago, dmedin said:

It'll probably go on up from here. 🙂

might do but the structure has turned into a bit of a mess, you have to ask where were the bulls when you needed them 😳

[Caseynotes]

ommmph!!

[dmedin]

New day, new triangle! 🤠

[Caseynotes]

11 minutes ago, dmedin said:

New day, new triangle! 🤠

yes, that's the wonderful thing about hand drawn patterns, you get to redraw them over and over again 🙂

[dmedin]

It's definitely on this time, Frodo Baggins!

[dmedin]

Told you so! 😱

[dmedin]

Ugh.  I was right about staying away from GBP.  Look at that hideous doji.

Edited February 20, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

It is going to go back down.  Wait till it breaks the 62% Fib level. 

Edited March 3, 2020 by dmedin

[dmedin]

Cometh the hour, cometh the Fibo 🤠