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Depression Looming


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I cannot see that the global economy will have a fast recovery. I can only see a depression looming unless a vaccine is quickly developed. This is the first time in a long time that the US has been directly affected by a major negative event (9/11 was localised). With the US slowing down, there is no other economy that will be able to create the demand required to get us a fast recovery. China's domestic demand is not large enough and Chinese personal debt was going through the roof even before the virus pandemic.

How will the world and the global economy be once this pandemic subsides? I think a very changed society and traditional retail will be one the worst sufferers. Also with all this money printing, is there a risk of hyperinflation in the long term? Well, gonna buy a couple of KGs of gold just as insurance and not for investment per se. Also think property prices will come under the cosh so sitting on cash will enable you to buy distressed properties as getting loans will be hard for many. I am reevaluating my log term investment strategy to take into account the changing environment.

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    • @u0362565 We'll not have a 2008 event for a long-time - there will be big plunges and 25% corrections along the way, they are a given along with a couple of bear market periods - but the ultra long term trend is upwards until the cycle ends in the mid 2030's The market is pre-BUILT - Its working through geometrical ratios - once its hit a key level it will reverse trend - the only problem as traders is we don't know exactly the geometrical shapes the market moves to all the time - I know this is hard to understand and visualise - as it works out and through its next move, trading opps will show up The reason the SP500 has crashed is it hit 1.902% which meant it reached to within 1 point the diagonal of a golden rectangle - once price reaches the geometrical shape its building it turns - I think what will happen is people will attach the reasoning of earnings season to it, but its always after the fact, like generic economic reasoning Yeah the key is working out what type of market you're in fast and when the trend changes, what worked prior, no longer works - the other key is staying solvent long enough to pick up the trades once the prior trend comes back into play as well as trading other markets I wrote a piece the other month on selling the "hooks" - the FTSE100 Index just provided that very short trade opportunity today If unsure, just stay out of the market in cash until things become a bit more clearer - a gann secondary reaction is a indicator to the start of a possible new rally, if that happens at a key retracement level of a bigger move then it could be significantĀ  THT Ā 
    • I'll tell you one thing, I wish I'd learnt how to short a market right now! I assume this movement is somewhat to do with whats happening with Ukraine/Russia. It's crashed through multiple 50% levels so is there a point where you say this method no longer works for the conditions at play. For example you can draw 50% levels to your heart's content extending back in time on daily chart swings. If you see enough movement above the level you may decide to trade at least it would somewhat limit the number of trades you were making. Movement of the market back to the high at least if we believe in what has happened historically is a case of when and not if. What is dangerous in my eyes is moves downward that last a long time, like 2008 where it went on for months. If it's relatively quick down and back it's easier to weather e.g. 2020 crash. I am assuming that we are not on a longer term decline but I haven't polished my crystal ball yet this year so not sure
    • Market data to trade on Tuesday: DAX; MSFT IGTVā€™s Daniela Sabin Hathorn looks at a chart of the DAX ahead of the latest IFO business climate data out in Germany as the equities selloff continues into the new week. On the corporate calendar, Microsoft (MSFT) will be looking to impress investors with its Q4 earnings after a rather disappointing start to the US earnings season. https://www.ig.com/uk/market-insight-articles/market-data-to-trade-on-tuesday--dax--msft-220124
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