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Now that the Bitcoin halving event is over, investors are keen to know how this will impact the cryptocurrency’s price and dynamics in the coming months. Written by: Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London Publication date: Monday 22 April 2024 14:02 ByteTree CIO Charlie Morris speaks to IGTV’s Angeline Ong to explain why this event was the ‘great anti-climax’ in the crypto world, and why this event perhaps presents a long awaited entry point for those wanting to gain exposure to Bitcoin. (AI Video Summary) Impact of the Bitcoin halving event In this exclusive IGTV interview, Angeline Ong and ByteTree CIO Charles Morris analyse the Bitcoin halving, emphasising its reduced supply effect and potential for price increases due to decreased miner selling pressure. Morris suggests the halving's aftermath offers a promising entry point for investors, citing historical post-halving strengths. Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks He also discusses Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks, regulatory perspectives, and its inevitability as a sustainable asset class, akin to "the gold of the Internet." Morris concludes by highlighting Bitcoin's necessity for fast, round-the-clock financial systems, contrasting traditional banking. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

The BoJ is set to hold their monetary meeting across 25 – 26 April 2024. Source: Getty Forex Bank of Japan Inflation Bank Japanese yen Bond Written by: Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore Publication date: Monday 22 April 2024 11:51 Previous March meeting marked a historic policy shift The BoJ is set to hold their monetary meeting across 25 – 26 April 2024. At the previous meeting, the BoJ raised its key short-term interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0% - 0.1% for the first time in 17 years. The central bank also removed its yield curve control (YCC) policy and scaled back its asset purchases – ending purchases of equity exchange traded funds (ETFs) and J-REITs but will continue to purchase Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) with “broadly the same amount as before”. The policy shift ensued from a stronger-than-expected outcome in this year’s annual wage negotiations (shunto), which validated hopes that a virtuous wage-price spiral could bring its ‘sustainable and stable 2% inflation’ target in sight. Japan’s biggest companies agreed to raise wages by 5.28% for 2024, its highest in 33 years. However, markets were also quick to take notice of the BoJ’s dovish language around further tightening, which anchored views for a more gradual pace of policy normalisation. With some reservations around economic risks, the central bank guided that it “anticipates that accommodative financial conditions will be maintained for the time being”. Source: Refinitiv What to expect at the upcoming BoJ meeting? At the upcoming meeting, the BoJ is widely expected to keep policy settings on hold, having previously indicated patience in its future policy assessments while a back-to-back policy shift may seem overly aggressive. Current rate expectations are leaning for further rate adjustment only in the July or September meeting. Source: Refinitiv, as of 19 April 2024. Focus to be on BoJ’s quarterly outlook report and press conference Focus for the upcoming meeting will be on the BoJ’s quarterly outlook report. Eyes will be on how the weaker yen and surging oil prices in recent months will raise the bar on its inflation outlook, which will set expectations for the central bank’s next rate move. Market chatters are for FY2025 core inflation forecast to be raised from 1.8% to 2.0%. The first forecast for FY2026 will also be unveiled, which is expected to be at around 2%. While Japan’s inflation has cooled slightly in March (core: 2.6% vs 2.8% prior, headline: 2.7% vs 2.8% prior), pricing pressures continue to run above the central bank’s 2% target for the second year running, which may support further policy normalisation efforts. Recent comments from the BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda have laid the groundwork, guiding that the central bank is "very likely" to raise interest rates if underlying inflation continues to go up, and will begin reducing its huge bond buying at some point in the future. Any wording shift in the press conference on close watch as well At the previous meeting, the BoJ Governor’s justification to keep accommodative monetary conditions in place was that ‘there is some distance for inflation expectations to reach 2%’. With any upward revisions in the upcoming inflation forecasts, market participants will be watching for any shift in wordings from the Governor in the upcoming press conference. USD/JPY: FX intervention remains on watch Rising US-Japan bond yield differentials has paved the way for USD/JPY to touch its highest level since 1990, with the pair breaking above its previous forex (FX) intervention level (October 2022) around the 150 - 152 level. While Japan authorities have been stepping up intervention warnings lately, with Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki recently saying that authorities “would take appropriate actions against excessive movements”, the lack of any concrete follow-through seems to point to some tolerance and spur views that it may be just jawboning to limit the decline in the yen. Nevertheless, any signs of intervention will remain on watch and drawing reference from 2022, the amount of yen-buying may determine if a top is seen. Near-term, an upward trendline seems to serve as a previous support-turned-resistance line for the pair, with buyers potentially facing a test of resistance at the 154.80 level. While daily relative strength index (RSI) is pointing to near-term oversold conditions, further rise in US Treasury yields may keep the pair supported. In the event of a retracement, the 153.00 level may be on watch as immediate support to hold. Source: IG charts Nikkei 225: Correction territory being tested The unwinding in the broader risk environment, particularly in rate-sensitive tech, has dragged the Nikkei 225 index into technical correction territory, falling by as much as 10.7% over the past one month. While the index is attempting to stabilise into the new week, sentiments remain weak for now, with its daily RSI dipping to its lowest level since December 2023. Near-term, the 36,700 level (last Friday’s low) may serve as immediate support to hold, with any subsequent breakdown potentially paving the way towards the 35,700 level next. On the upside, the 38,000 level will be on watch, where a resistance confluence stands from an upward trendline and its daily Ichimoku Cloud. Source: IG charts This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

EUR/USD stabilizes while EUR/GBP rallies and GBP/USD tumbles on dovish BoE comments regarding rapidly falling inflation. Source: Getty Images Forex United States dollar Pound sterling EUR/USD GBP/USD EUR/GBP Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 22 April 2024 10:13 EUR/USD stabilizes EUR/USD is now range trading between its key $1.069 to $1.0725 resistance zone and last week's $1.0601 low. Below it lies the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October-to-December advance at $1.0596 and further down the late October lows at $1.0522 to $1.0517 as well as the $1.0449 October low. All of these remain medium-term in sight. Source: TradingView.com EUR/GBP sees sharp rally EUR/GBP has swiftly risen above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at £0.8605 and reached the October low at £0.8617 which acts as resistance. If bettered, the £0.8630-31 mid-September high and late September low will be in focus. Slips to below the 200-day SMA should find support around the March high at £0.8602. Below it lie the 5 to 9 April highs at £0.8586-82. Source: TradingView.com GBP/USD tumbles further GBP/USD resumed its descent and nears the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October-to-March rise at $1.2365. Further down sits the mid-October high at $1.2338. Minor resistance can be spotted at last Tuesday's $1.2406 low. Source: TradingView.com This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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Gold and oil prices volatile after Middle East news, while natural gas price moves higher for a fourth day News of a possible Israeli counter-strike against Iran lifted oil and gold prices before both rapidly retreated, while natural gas is continuing to edge higher. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Friday 19 April 2024 10:48 Gold knocked back from $2400 again Gold prices once again attempted to clear $2400, but ran into selling pressure for the second time. This pause to upward progress might signal that some short-term weakness is at hand, though there is at present little sign of any renewed downside. Buyers need a a close above $2400 to open the way to additional upside. Source: ProRealTime Brent spikes on Middle East tensions Oil prices had been under firm pressure in the previous two days, but spiked higher on news of a possible Israeli strike in Iran. The limited nature of the strike, and the muted Iranian response, meant that the price could not sustain gains, and the price fell back from its highs. However, if the $86 low can hold from Thursday then a short-term move higher may develop, particularly if tensons in the Middle East continue to rise. Source: ProRealTime Natural Gas moves higher Natural gas prices have edged higher over the past four sessions, rallying off the 50-day SMA. Further gains would target the $2000 level, and then on the 100-day SMA at $2138. A more bearish view would require a close back below the 50-day SMA. Source: ProRealTime

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 drop on Israel retaliatory strike on Iran Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as investors fret about escalating tensions in the Middle East. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Friday 19 April 2024 10:34 FTSE 100 stabilizes following sharp out-of-hours drop The FTSE 100 dropped like a stone to its late February high at 7,751 as Israel fired missiles at Iran in a retaliatory attack in out-of-hours trading. Even though the index still opened lower, it has so far regained the majority of its intraday losses as hopes that further escalation will not take place become more prevalent. While no rise above Thursday’s high at 7,899 is seen, though, the FTSE 100 remains under pressure and may revisit Tuesday’s low at 7,794. Minor resistance sits at the early April 7,856 low. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 drops to levels last seen in February The DAX 40 fell to levels last traded in late February when it hit the 17,400 mark on Middle East escalation as Israel launched missiles at Iran. The index is trying to heave itself above the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 17,715 which may act as resistance with the 17,711 low seen on Tuesday. Further resistance sits at last Friday’s 17,831 low. For the bulls to even short-term be in control again, a bullish reversal and rise above Tuesday’s high at 17,903 needs to ensue. Support is found at the 7 March 17,619 low and the 50% retracement of the mid-January to April advance. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 slips to two-month low The S&P 500 is on track for its third consecutive week of losses as it hit levels last traded in mid-February at 4,927 amid a retaliatory missile strike by Israel on Iran. The index is trying to remain above this low but will now have the psychological 5,000 mark to contend with which should act as resistance. Further up the mid-February high at 5,049 may also act as resistance. Below today’s intraday low at 4,927 lies the 4,920 mid-February low. Source: ProRealTime

Trading volatility: DXY on US Q1 GDP With the US economy seemingly able to cope with relatively high US interest rates there’s the potential for this coming week's US GDP reading for Q1 to be strong. Written by: Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London Publication date: Friday 19 April 2024 10:08 If this comes to pass there will inevitably be a long trade to be had around the US dollar. IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at likely levels which may be key. The data is out on Thursday 25 April. (AI Video Summary) U.S. GDP data Anticipation of strong U.S. GDP data for the first quarter, expected to affirm the resilience of the U.S. economy amid high interest rates. This optimism is reflected in the forecast of the U.S. dollar's strength, particularly noted in the dollar basket's potential movement. Traders are advised to watch for a break above 106.19 in the dollar basket, suggesting a move to 106.98 on a robust GDP outcome. This analysis is tied to expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates to combat inflation, impacting dollar positions and providing key insights for financial enthusiasts interested in currency markets and economic indicators. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Alphabet's integration of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) into search and ads services, as well capital expenditure will likely be a key focus for investors. Shares Alphabet Inc. Artificial intelligence Price Revenue Share price Written by: Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg Publication date: Friday 19 April 2024 10:02 Key takeaways: Earnings Expectations: Alphabet Inc. will release its Q1 2024 earnings on April 25th, with analysts projecting revenues of $69.787 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.89. Revenue Diversification and Challenges: Despite a flat performance of its services segment being expected, Alphabet is seeing significant growth in its cloud computing division Market Focus on AI: Markets are particularly keen on understanding Alphabet's strategy and progress in integrating generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) into its search and advertising services. Stock Price Analysis: Alphabet’s Class C shares have an average 12-month price target of $168.64 among analysts Technical Outlook: Alphabet’s stock remains in a long-term uptrend but is undergoing a short term correction thereof When are the Alphabet results? Alphabet Inc. is set to report Q1 2024 earnings on the 25th of April 2022. What ‘the Street’ expects from Alphabet Q1 2024 results? A Refinitiv poll of analyst estimates (as of the 18th of April 2024) arrives at the following: Revenue for the quarter of $69.787bn Earnings per share for the quarter of $1.89 Googles services segment remains the largest contributor to revenue ($61.961bn expected) and is expected to be roughly flat year on year. Googles cloud segment is forecast to be the growth driver for the group adding around 28% y/y revenue growth reaching a figure of $7.546bn. The groups ‘other bets’ division, is expected to see a 35% contraction in its revenue contribution to group at around $288m. Markets will be looking for further news around the company’s involvement and integration of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) into search and ads services. Capital expenditure will likely also be a key focus relative to investment into cloud and AI, and in lieu of recent cost cutting initiatives. How to trade Alphabet results Source: IG TipRanks Based on 11 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Alphabet Class C in the last 3 months. The average price target is US$168.64 with a high forecast of US$185.00 and a low forecast of US$160.00. The average price target represents a 7.50% change from the last price of US$156.87. Source: IG 89% of IG client accounts with open positions on Alphabet as of the 18th of April 2024, expect the price to rise in the near term, while 11% expect the price to fall. Alphabet (Class C) share price – technical view Source: IG The share price of Alphabet Inc. remains in a long-term uptrend. In the near term we are seeing a correction of this uptrend from recent highs and overbought territory. Trend followers might wait for weakness to play out before looking for long entry in line with the longer-term uptrend. Confirmation that the short-term correction has ended, and that the longer-term uptrend is resuming might be considered on a bullish price reversal closer towards either the 149.90 or 142.30 support levels. In this scenario channel resistance provides a longer-term upside target of around 166.40. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

With most European and US stock indices having slid around 5% from their record highs, is now the right time to buy the dip? Source: Bloomberg Shares Stock market Stock United States Inflation Central bank Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Thursday 18 April 2024 13:57 Is the stock market correction coming to an end? Heightened tensions in the Middle East and pared back rate cut expectations amid worries of sticky inflation provoked a 4.5% to 5.5% drop in most European and US stock markets from their record highs. However, long-term investors may want to consider taking advantage of this dip to add high-quality stocks trading at lower prices. Here are some reasons why now could be a good entry point: Stocks are cheaper than they were a month ago. The recent sell-off means stocks across most sectors are trading at 5-10% discounts compared to March 2024. Many strong companies are now available at slightly more reasonable valuations. Interest rates have almost certainly reached their peak and its now not a question of if but when they will be cut. Despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) aggressively raising rates to fight inflation, the US economy has remained robust and has been accompanied by a solid labour market. Inflation is cooling, even if recent data has shown that this process is not linear and that there are some bumps on the way. Falling inflation and rate cuts should provide support for equity prices. Source: LSEG Eikon Several European and US indices have reached potential support zones from which they may, at least over the coming days, recover. S&P 500 daily candlestick chart Source: TradingView The S&P 500, for example, after four consecutive days of falling prices, is trading towards the upper boundary of its 5,048 to 4,920 February sideways trading range, close to the psychological 5,000 mark and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October-to-March advance at 4,990.5, all of which may act as support from which another up leg may be formed. Then again, if this support zone were give way, possibly because of escalation in the Middle East or disappointing US first quarter Q1 earnings, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and December peak at 4,821 to 4,793 may be back in play. From a seasonality point of view such a scenario looks probable since, going back to 1928, the month of May seems to be the worst performing month for the S&P 500 in US presidential election years such as this year’s. Source: LSEG Eikon, Chris Beauchamp IG Having said that, June to-August followed by November to December of presidential election years tend to see stock price rises. S&P 500 seasonal path in US presidential election years chart Source: RENMAC At a time at which global fund managers sentiment is the most bullish since January 2022, a minor correction such as the one we are in at the moment, is to be expected and nothing out of the ordinary. The question is whether stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic may drop another 5% before they resume their ascents or whether the current dip already marks the end of the corrective phase. Source: BofA Global Research In the short term, we may see continued turbulence until inflation and geopolitical tensions ease. However, for long-term investors, the recent dip likely provides an opportunity to buy stocks at cheaper values. The key is taking a patient approach and not getting shaken out by normal stock market corrections. As the economic and geopolitical backdrop improves, today's stock prices could look like bargains in hindsight and this despite this year’s already impressive gains. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

As Netflix prepares to report its Q1 earnings, investors are keen to see if the streaming giant can maintain its impressive subscriber growth, capitalise on its ad-supported plans, and continue to dominate the streaming landscape. Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Thursday 11 April 2024 When will Netflix report its latest earnings? Netflix is scheduled to report its first quarter (Q1) 2024 earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, 18 April 2024. Subscriber surge shocks Wall Street During its Q4 2023 earnings report, Netflix surprised investors by adding 13.1 million new subscribers, surpassing the 8.76 million additions it reported in Q3 and easily beating Wall Street's expectations of 8 million to 9 million. The company reported revenues of $8.83 billion during the quarter, up 12% year over year. Reported EPS of $2.11 was lower than the $2.22 expected, largely due to a $239 million non-cash unrealised loss from FX measurement on Euro-denominated debt. A letter to shareholders In a letter to shareholders, Netflix noted, “We believe there is plenty of room for growth ahead as streaming expands, and our north star remains the same: to thrill members with our entertainment. If we can continue to improve Netflix faster than the competition, we’ll have an increasingly valuable business – for consumers, creators and shareholders." Expectations for Q1 earnings Netflix operates within a lucrative market, with potential revenue opportunities in pay TV, film, games, and branded advertising amounting to over $600 billion. Despite its success, Netflix currently captures only 5% of this vast market. Moreover, its share of TV viewing is “still less than 10% in every country,” highlighting the significant room for growth. Netflix forecast for Q1 2024 Source: Netflix Netflix's year of remarkable growth Surging revenues Current Quarter (Q1 2024): $9.65 billion Previous Quarter (Q4 2023): $8.83 billion EPS takes a leap Diluted EPS Q1 2024: $4.49 Diluted EPS Q4 2023: $2.11 Net income: a strong uptrend Q1 2024 Net income: $1.976 billion Q4 2023 Net income: $938 million Netflix sales revenue Source: TradingEconomics Key points to watch: Netflix's subscriber dynamics Q1 2024 forecast: Netflix anticipates slower customer growth in Q1 2024 compared to Q4 2023, attributing the slowdown to seasonal trends and a pull-forward effect from Q4's robust growth, with Wall Street predicting a 4.31 million customer increase Ad-supported plan impact: Following the previous year's introduction of a lower-priced, ad-supported subscription option, observers are eager to assess its role in driving both new memberships and advertising revenue Password sharing policy: The effectiveness of Netflix's intensified efforts to curb password sharing, examining potential impacts on subscription numbers and profitability, remains a focal point Pricing strategy effects: In light of recent price hikes, there's considerable interest in determining whether the increased costs have influenced subscriber acquisition and retention, potentially pushing users towards more affordable alternatives. Competitive landscape While Netflix has deservedly earned the title of the King of Streaming, competition in the streaming industry remains intense from names such as Disney and Warner Brothers. Outside of the streaming industry, Netflix is also facing stiff competition from linear TV, YouTube, and TikTok, to name but a few. Streaming wars: Netflix leads, Warner Bros. Discovery lags with 5% decline Source: The Hollywood Reporter Netflix technical analysis Netflix's share price dropped over 75% from the high of $700.99 it reached in November 2021 to a low of $162.71 by May 2022, as surging interest rates plunged tech stocks into a downturn, and the company experienced subscriber losses. This period is now well and truly in the past, and after a resurgence akin to that of Lazarus over the past twenty-one months, Netflix’s share price is now just 12% off its all-time high. Netflix weekly chart Source: TradingView The daily chart below illustrates that the rally from the October 2023 low of $344.73 has continued within a bullish trend channel. On the downside, support is identified at $595, a key level where we might anticipate the emergence of dip buyers. It is crucial for this support level to remain in place to sustain the upward trend. On the upside, channel resistance is found at $690, just beneath the all-time high of $700.99, marking a plausible point for the execution of profit-taking sell orders. Netflix daily chart Source: TradingView Source TradingView. The figures stated are as of 10 April 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Explore how the approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the US SEC opened unprecedented doors for investors and how this pivotal change is set to revolutionise cryptocurrency investing. Source: Bloomberg IG Analyst Let's peel back some of the mystery around the recent news propelling bitcoin into the spotlight - the new crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Cryptocurrency is digital money secured by a specific type of public ledger called blockchain. Without a governing body like a government, a public digital ledger transparently records peer-to-peer transactions. Bitcoin, launched in 2009, became the first widely adopted cryptocurrency. Because the number of coins is limited, bitcoin has become a tempting speculative investment. A historic milestone: the approval of bitcoin ETFs by the SEC On January 10th 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) marked a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency world with the approval of 11 spot bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs). This includes offerings from fund titans BlackRock and Fidelity. This move is set to potentially transform the landscape of cryptocurrency investing and open new opportunities for traders. To understand the impact of this development, it is essential to grasp what spot ETFs are. A spot ETF is a type of fund that directly tracks the current, or 'spot', price of an asset and in this case, bitcoin (BTC). Unlike futures-based ETFs, which are tied to contracts betting on the future price of an asset, spot ETFs are backed by the actual price of the asset itself. Boosting confidence in Bitcoin investments This means that when you invest in a spot bitcoin ETF, the fund purchases actual bitcoin, and the value of your investment fluctuates with the real-time price of bitcoin in the market. These bitcoins are held by a custodian. Coinbase is the custodian for eight of the 11 spot bitcoin ETFs. The introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs is a game-changer because it provides a bridge between the traditional financial world and the burgeoning crypto market. For traders, this means easier access to bitcoin investments without the complexities and security concerns of managing a digital wallet or trading on a cryptocurrency exchange. Liquidity, price stability and broader adoption One of the most significant advantages of these ETFs is the potential for increased liquidity and price stability. As more institutional and retail investors gain exposure to bitcoin through these funds, trading volumes are expected to rise. This could lead to a more stabilised market with less price volatility, which is beneficial for traders who seek to capitalise on incremental price movements. Moreover, spot bitcoin ETFs could also lead to broader adoption and acceptance of bitcoin as a legitimate asset class. With the SEC's stamp of approval, investor confidence in bitcoin could grow, potentially leading to increased demand and, consequently, higher prices. This parallels the journey of gold ETFs, which increased gold demand substantially and reduced volatility long term. Bitcoin ETFs vs. futures contracts Bitcoin ETFs make investing in bitcoin much more accessible to casual traders and retail investors. While futures contracts based on the price of bitcoin require oversight of settlement dates and delivery complexities, an ETF trades like a stock. It simply tracks an underlying index price -- in this case, bitcoin spot price. The bitcoin ETF offers simple exposure tied to bitcoin's price swings without needing to directly buy crypto from an exchange or wallet and take on the hassles of storage and security. You can buy and sell the ETF seamlessly like stocks from a standard brokerage account. The ETF format opens the door to mainstream investment funds, retirement accounts like 401ks, and amateur stock dabblers -- not just specialised futures traders. This instantly widens the pool of potential bitcoin investors dramatically. The ETF coincides with another important moment for bitcoin prices: halving day. Bitcoin halving day explained Bitcoin mining is how new coins are created and verified transactions are added to the blockchain ledger. Miners compete to solve complex maths puzzles and earn rewards for each block added. Originally, successful bitcoin miners were rewarded 50 BTC per block, an incentive for mining activity. However, bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million total coins that can exist. To ensure controlled supply until the cap is reached, mining rewards decrease by 50% every 210,000 blocks mined. This pre-set halving of mining rewards happens approximately every four years, with the next halving day estimated to be in April 2024. When halving days reduce the supply of new bitcoins flowing in, simple economics kicks in. All else being equal, when supply drops but demand keeps growing, prices tend to rise. The anticipation of this can spur speculative investing leading up to the halving day. Impact of halving day on supply and prices Even without the ETF news, bitcoin's next 'halving day' in April 2024 suggests this built-in increasing scarcity could drive prices up in the coming years. Of course, cryptocurrencies still come with plenty of risk and uncertainty. But the possibility of more investors and financial giants embracing bitcoin and its derivatives indicates prices could continue climbing. For intrepid investors, crypto ETFs offer a simpler way to stake your claim! This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Mainland Chinese stock markets bucked the broader selloff trend in Asian markets on Wednesday. China's CSI 300 index rose 0.5%, while the CSI 2000 small-cap index surged 5.3%. This came after the Chinese securities regulator stated that companies not complying with calls to increase dividend payouts will not face mass delistings, providing relief. In contrast, Japan's Topix index fell 0.9% despite strong March trade data showing rising exports. UK inflation data showed consumer prices rose 3.2% annually in March, higher than expected at 3.1%, renewing debate on when the Bank of England may start cutting rates. Core UK inflation eased to 4.2% from 4.5% in February but was still above the 4.1% forecast. In the US, stocks closed lower for the third straight session on Tuesday. The S&P 500 slid 0.2% and Nasdaq lost 0.1% after Fed Chair Powell warned rates may need to stay higher for longer to tame inflation.

Bitcoin halving is set for this week. Bitcoin Halving Event The cryptocurrency was hit hard over the weekend after Iran carried out a series of strikes against Israeli territory. The attack, in response to Israel’s attack on Iran’s consulate in Syria at the start of the month, saw in excess of 350 drones and missiles launched by Iran. According to the Israel Defence Force (IDF), ‘99%’ of these ‘threats’ were successfully intercepted. With the cryptocurrency sector being the only market open over the weekend, traders used the sector’s liquidity to hedge risk. Bitcoin hit a low of $60.6k as news of the impending strike filtered through, while Ethereum hit a multi-week low of $2,845. In the altcoin space, losses of 25% or more were seen, sparking multiple liquidation stories. Prices across the board are pushing higher today, but the weekend’s losses will take some time to fully recover. The weekend sell-off saw Bitcoin fall below both the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages for the first time since late January. Both of these will need to be recovered convincingly, along with a prior resistance-turned-support level at $69k, before Bitcoin can make a fresh attempt at the mid-March $73.78k all-time high. BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART – APRIL 15TH, 2024 Ethereum is over 3% higher today after making a multi-month low of $2,845 on Saturday. Ethereum must reclaim both the 20- and 50-day moving averages before $ 3,582 comes back into play. Above here, the April 8th/9th double high at $3,728 comes into focus. ETHEREUM DAILY PRICE CHART – APRIL 15TH, 2024 All charts via TradingView What is your view on Bitcoin and Ethereum – bullish or bearish? Apr 15, 2024 1:30 PM +02:00 Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist DailyFX

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of higher US interest rates for longer have dampened risk appetite in financial markets. This led to a sell-off in Asian stocks, a strengthening US dollar, and further weakness in the Japanese yen to levels not seen since the mid-1990s against the dollar. European markets are expected to open sharply lower, with a focus on UK labour and wage data for clues on when the Bank of England may start cutting rates. Markets see August as most likely for BoE rate cuts to begin. The Federal Reserve is seen as unlikely to rush rate cuts after strong US retail sales data. Market pricing now sees less than two Fed rate cuts in 2024 instead of the six expected earlier. Safe-haven flows are boosting demand for the US dollar and gold amid Middle East tensions. China's GDP beat estimates but weak March data raised concerns about its economic recovery. UK employment data showed a rise in the unemployment rate for February, to 4.2%, while wage growth remained steady at 5.6%.

Fundamental and technical reasons point to further US dollar strength Source: Getty Forex Shares United States dollar Japanese yen Euro United States Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 15 April 2024 12:39 The US dollar trades in five-month highs and has further upside in store A robust US labour market, sticky inflation, pushed back US rate cut expectations, and escalating tensions in the Middle East have led to a 3.5% rally in the US Dollar Basket over the past six weeks. According to technical analysis, further greenback appreciation is also on the cards with the October-to-November highs at 106.98 to 107.05 being eyed. US Dollar Basket Daily Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView The fact that the US economy added 303K jobs in March 2024, the most in ten months, coupled with Consumer Price Inflations (CPI) coming in slightly higher-than-expected at 3.5% versus a 3.2% year-on-year increase in February, pushed US yields to five-month highs and led to the greenback appreciating. Meanwhile US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations have been pushed back from June and three rate cuts this year to September and two rate cuts, also boosting the greenback. This is because higher rates for longer make holding the US dollar more attractive than other currencies such as the euro of the British pound, for example, with the former expected to cut rates in June and the latter in August. The missile and drone attacks by Iran on Israel over the weekend have led to flight-to-safety flows into the US dollar, leading to further appreciation of the currency. The yen, despite investors expecting to see another rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) July monetary meeting, continues to take the brunt and is further depreciating versus the US dollar, hitting yet another 34-year high whilst on its way to its 1990 peak at ¥160.16. USD/JPY Yearly Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview USD/JPY is thus on track for its fourth straight year of gains with further upside expected to be seen in the course of this year. Versus the euro, the US dollar is also expected to appreciate further. Last week’s fall through and weekly chart close below EUR/USD’s key $1.0725 to $1.0695 support zone, made up of the December-to-early April lows, is technically bearish and puts the October low at $1.0449 on the map. En route lies the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October-to-December advance at $1.0596. This bearish scenario will remain in play while no bounce in the cross takes it to above the major $1.0695 to $1.0725 resistance area. EUR/USD Daily Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview The technical picture is similar when it comes to GBP/USD, even though it is currently flirting with the 50% retracement of the October-to-March advance. Nonetheless the currency pair also fell through its key support at $1.2540 to $1.2500, which encompasses the December-to-early April lows, and thus points towards further weakness towards the October-to-November lows at $1.2096 to $1.2038 unfolding. On the way down the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement can be found at $1.2365 and represents the next downside target. Only a rise and daily chart close above the, because of inverse polarity now resistance zone, at $1.2500 to $1.2540, and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.2580 would negate the bearish GBP/USD outlook. GBP/USD Daily Candlestick Chart Source: Tradingview This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Gold's climb stalls despite strong central bank and Chinese buyer interest, while silver meets key resistance, spotlighting pivotal movements in metals market. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Commodities Gold Market trend Silver Written by: Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg Publication date: Friday 12 April 2024 07:50 Gold retreats after tagging 1.618 Fibonacci extension The weekly gold chart showcases the precious metal’s bullish continuation, taking out numerous all-time highs with ease. The prospect of fewer rate cuts from the Fed and a stronger US dollar have hardly affected the high-flying commodity, which continues to thrive on solid central bank buying; and a pickup in retail purchases from Chinese citizens. With gold breaking new ground, resistance targets are difficult to come by. Therefore, the 1.618% extension of the major 2020 to 2022 major decline helps project the next upside challenge at $2360. Price action does appear to have pulled away from the level, but the move is minor at this juncture. Gold weekly chart Source: TradingView The daily chart portrays the extent to which this market is overheating, with the RSI continuing to trade in overbought territory. Prices trade well above both the 50 and 200-day simple moving averages, a bullish landscape for the metal. Today, gold appears to be stabilising after yesterday’s hot CPI data which propelled yields and the dollar higher – effectively adding a premium to the price of gold for overseas buyers. The sheer pace of the advance suggests the invalidation levels for the bullish outlook appear at the prior all-time high of $2195. Even a move to the $2222 level wouldn’t necessarily rule out a further bullish move, but it may prompt a reassessment of the bullish bias. Gold daily chart Source: TradingView Silver hits a prior, longer-term zone of resistance Silver, like gold, continues its bullish advance, but has recently hit a zone of resistance that appeared in late 2020, and early 2021. The zone appears around $28.40 and capped silver prices around the Covid boom. The next target to the upside is $30.10 which represents a full retracement of the 2021 to 2022 decline. Should the level propel bulls from here, the 78.6% retracement comes into play at $27.41, followed by $26.10. Silver weekly chart Source: TradingView The daily chart hones in on recent price action, which appears to stabilise beneath the zone of resistance. Notably, the RSI flashes red as silver continues to trade in overbought territory, suggesting bulls may need to catch their breath. Silver daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Discover what to expect from Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings report, including production and delivery figures, competition, and new product updates. Explore what is influencing Tesla's performance and its strategies for growth. Shares Tesla, Inc. Consumer price index Federal Reserve Interest rate Pricing Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai Publication date: Friday 12 April 2024 03:52 When will Tesla report its latest earnings? Both Tesla traders and investors nervously await Tuesday, 23 April, after market close, as that’s when they’ll be releasing their first-quarter results. Tesla share price: forecasts from Q1 results Traders and investors will all be hoping it can put an end to what have been successive misses in matching estimates. Tesla's share price has yet to undo losses suffered back in January when both earnings and revenue for the final quarter of last year came in below expectations. It's well beneath what it was valued at back in October when it suffered an earnings and revenue miss for the third quarter of 2023. Tesla's latest manufacturing and delivery insights Looking at the most recent quarter and breaking down the deliveries and production, the figures certainly disappointed and came in well below estimates that were already reduced prior. It suffered its first annual decline when it came to deliveries, at only 386,810, down 8.5% from the same period last year. Production was also lower, at 433,371, with the gap between it and deliveries widening, certainly hurting the demand narrative. Q1 challenges: Berlin gigafactory sabotage and the competitive landscape The belief that 'supply can create its own demand' when it comes to Tesla continues to disintegrate, or perhaps it’s the matter of the remaining market where clients are more conscious of costs that are eying the price range of its products more so than what those models entail. And it matters far more for a growth stock and a company still valued as such. We already got the warning prior regarding growth that may be "notably lower" this year compared to last year's rate of growth, and there will need to be confirmation it indeed is "between two major growth waves". A few items took the attention when it came to the first quarter of this year including the power sabotage at its gigafactory in Berlin that impacted production there in March, but it’s really been about what the competition has been up to. Fisker might be on the way out, legacy automakers that were trying to get in on the electric vehicle (EV) action are struggling with higher costs and lower demand shifting to hybrids instead, and the biggest relief was probably that heavyweight Apple dropped its EV project. But the latter was always meant to target the premium segment, and it’s the lower segments that are becoming Tesla’s problem. Source: Bloomberg Tesla vs China: the ongoing competition There have been ongoing price cuts from the likes of BYD as well as new model trims that carry with it lower prices as it seeks to capture a larger share of not just the EV market but from established players as well. Its latest figures for the fourth quarter of last year showed revenue climbing to a record high but net profit failing to best Q3 figures. Tesla is planning to launch its first electric pickup truck this year and there are still those looking to get in on the EV action with Xiaomi the most recent with its SU7 that is priced well beneath Tesla’s Model 3. Elsewhere, Huawei and Chery’s Luxeed S7 electric sedan finally started mass delivery. Tesla's response: aggressive price cuts and FSD promotion To keep up, Tesla has had to dig deep once more. Prices of all four key models (3, S, X, and Y) are down an average of about 15% for the first quarter of this year (cargurus.com) with the cuts largest for the 3 and Y while smallest for the X (and doesn’t include the discounts at the start of this quarter). The latest push was an announcement near the end of the quarter. Tesla will offer a free trial of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) for a month to US customers that have the capability. This is with the hopes it’ll entice those purchasing a Tesla into paying an additional $12,000 for the driver-assist technology. It aims to reverse what has been a decline of those buying the package but whether that software update will translate to better figures for the quarter we’re currently in remains yet to be seen. Key points investors continue to watch Newer models: attention is on the mass-market sub-$30K EV expected to enter production in the second half of 2025. This model aims to compete with BYD and its lower-cost models, especially after recent attention from a Reuters report claiming Tesla was cancelling it. Musk's response was that “Reuters is lying (again).” The latest roadster version: Musk has indicated plans for unveiling the latest Roadster at the end of this year, with shipping slated for next year Charging business: Tesla's charging network has gone from strength to strength, notably opening up to Ford EVs at the end of February Optimus: there's increased optimism around its potential following positive early feedback Chinese competition: Musk's comments from the last earnings call suggested Tesla could “pretty much demolish” the competition in the absence of trade barriers Cybertruck progress: after its first full quarter of deliveries, ramping up production to around a quarter-million units is a challenge due to its “manufacturing complexity.” Potential catalysts: updates that could shift the narrative and act as a catalyst to draw investors back with more confidence, including any hints about the upcoming 8 August robotaxi unveiling. Source: Bloomberg Tesla's Q1 EPS and revenue forecasts In all, expectations for Tesla's first quarter are that we'll get an earnings per share (EPS) reading of just $0.54, a figure that's lower both quarter-on-quarter (q/q) as well as year-on-year (y/y), and revised notably lower compared to a few months back. Revenue should also come in lower for both periods, at $22.75 billion, and here too, estimates have been revised lower. Margins are expected to continue struggling in the current phase. As it tackles the lower end of the market from here on out, intense competition from all sides only means that figure will remain tested. Its gross profit margins are expected to drop but remain above 17%. Their reliance on rates falling – given higher interest rates translate into costlier financing to purchase a Tesla – means they’ll have to wait until at least September. This is according to market pricing of when the US Federal Reserve will cut rates on the front (CME’s FedWatch) following hotter US CPI (Consumer Price Index) readings Where do analysts stand on Tesla? As for analyst recommendations, there are five in the ‘strong buy’ category, 11 ‘buy’, a larger 22 for a ‘hold’, seven for ‘sell’ and four still favoring a ‘strong sell’, with the average price target among them lowered to $186.88 that's above its share price but in comparison to recent figures, not too far off (source: LSEG). Trading Tesla’s Q1 results: weekly technical overview and trading strategies Tesla's share price is well above the lows seen at the start of last year, but that's about all we can get in terms of good news on the technical front. We're working within two bear channels (see chart below), the narrower one still holding while price has failed to breach the upper end of the larger one. Looking at its key technical indicators, and the price is still beneath all its main long-term weekly moving averages (50, 100, 200), working off the lower end of the weekly band. On the DMI (Directional Movement Index) front, the -DI remains above the +DI by a decent margin, and an ADX (Average Directional Movement Index) is reaching trending territory. That has led to a technical overview that's 'bear average', though keep in mind that on average, we've still been experiencing relatively controlled intraweek moves. There's the obvious matter that the earnings release is a fundamental event where technicals are shelved, especially when it involves a surprise, and means technical levels will likely struggle or even fail to hold once the latest figures are released. Source: IG Tesla weekly chart with key technical indicators Source: IG Tesla weekly chart with IG client sentiment Source: IG IG client sentiment* and short interest for Tesla shares Among IG clients, the sentiment has consistently shown an extreme buy bias for the past three months. This followed a period where it oscillated between this extreme buy bias and a heavy long position. The latest figure stands at 83% as of Thursday morning, remaining unchanged from yesterday (image below). Short interest in Tesla shares has seen an increase over the last three months, moving from 86 million shares, which represented 2.73% of the total in January during our previous earnings preview, to over 107 million shares. These now account for 3.37% of the total (source: LSEG). Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

A generally weak session in Asia overnight saw the Hang Seng tumble 1.5%. Yesterday's ECB meeting left investors expecting that central bank will be the first to cut rates, with June the likely point. The BoE is expected to follow in August, and the Fed in September, a sharp change from the start of the year, when markets were forecasting a March rate cut. The Japanese yen remains near 34-year lows against the US dollar, prompting intervention warnings from Japan's finance minister. European equities are set for another weekly decline, while the start of the U.S. earnings season with big banks reporting could impact market direction.

These five companies could be the best FTSE 250 shares to watch next month. They have been selected for recent market news. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares FTSE 100 Royal Mail Cash Inflation Written by: Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London Despite having risen by 1.8% year-to-date to 19,855 points, the FTSE 250 index continue to outperform alternative index choices including the S&P 500 and tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 in 2024. The FTSE 100’s little brother is arguably an indicator of the UK’s wider economy, which continues to remain on an uncertain trajectory. Naturally, where there’s uncertainty there is often opportunity — with certain FTSE 250 shares in the spotlight recently for arguably good news. FTSE 250 macroeconomics In terms of the wider picture, CPI inflation has now fallen to 3.4% and is expected to fall below 2% within the next few months. However, strong wage data and relatively low unemployment means inflation could start to rise again later on this year — and the base rate remains at a relatively elevated 5.25%. While Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey recently advised that rate cuts are ‘on the way,’ language from the US Federal Reserve appears perhaps a little more hawkish after strong than expected employment numbers. Further, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has just warned that interest rates stateside could rise to ‘8% or even higher’ in the coming years in his annual letter to shareholders. The surge of the so-called ‘magnificent seven’ is perhaps also relevant — as the largest US tech stocks continue to rise, they are swallowing ever more investor capital. However, should this prove to be a bubble that eventually bursts, value stocks on the FTSE 250 could benefit over the longer run. And of course, the UK just entered a new tax year — with new ISA and SIPP allowances. Best FTSE 250 stocks to watch These shares have been selected for recent market news. Future PLC Royal Mail Carnival Direct Line JD Wetherspoon Future PLC Future PLC's recently released trading statement saw the company report that ‘expected revenue improvement to the Q4 2023 exit rate has continued, resulting in a return to organic revenue growth in Q2 for the Group.’ The long-awaited return to growth was driven by a strong performance by the Go Compare brand, B2B, and magazines. However, Future continues to contend with challenges in affiliate products and digital advertising given the wider macroeconomic pressures. But its Growth Acceleration Strategy appears to be working, and there has been a ‘stronger performance in US direct advertising.’ Overall, the company is now highly cash generative, with cash conversion in the past six months described as strong. This leaves Future on track to deliver on previously set out positive expectations for FY24. Shore Capital analyst Roddy Davidson noted that with Future’s valuation at 4.8 times earnings and a 0.6% yield as "anomalously low and leaves it vulnerable" to being taken over. Meanwhile, Panmure Gordon’s Jessica Pok noted that the company is showing ‘encouraging sings’ and the shares ‘, trading on 5x FY25E PE, continue to look attractive.’ Royal Mail Royal Mail shares are down sharply over the past three years, but a significant part of the business’s woes is tied up in the universal service obligation, which is the minimum service level that must be provided by Royal Mail for letter deliveries set out by legislation. The current obligation is for the company to deliver letters six days a week, and parcels five days a week — to every address in the UK, at affordable uniform prices. Royal Mail’s parent International Distribution Services is calling for second-class post to be delivered only every other weekday, and further that more ‘realistic’ speed targets could be introduced from April 2025. These changes would not require legislative change. OFCOM has now acknowledged that the obligation ‘risks becoming financially and operationally unsustainable in the long term’ especially as letter sending has dramatically decreased over the past decade or so. The regulator notes that the net cost to Royal Mail was between £325 million and £675 million in 2021/22. For context, Royal Mail made an operating loss of £1 billion last year — and OFCOM plans to provide an update on the proposals in the summer. Carnival Carnival recently saw Q1 revenues hit a record $5.4 billion and reported an all-time high of booking levels. This has seen the stock rise by more than 50% over the past year, but it also announced in the earnings call that it expects a $10 million hit as a result of the Baltimore bridge collapse disaster. Specifically, this is because it will need to change its homeport — it noted ‘our guidance does not include the current estimated impact of up to $10 million on both adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income for the full year 2024.’ However, this setback may prove temporary both in terms of operations and share price, as Carnival continues to expect record revenues and EBITDA for the full year. At the end of 2023, CEO Josh Weinstein enthused that the company ‘entered the year with the best booked position we have ever seen, and now have nearly two-thirds of our occupancy already on the books for 2024, at considerably higher prices (in constant currency).’ Direct Line Direct Line shares are now flat year-to-date after losing much of its gains due to a takeover approach from Belgian insurer Ageas — which has now decided not to make a further takeover offer. For context, Ageas had made two bids, both of which were rejected by Direct Line’s board. Ageas CEO Hans de Cuyper noted that he is ‘convinced that given the circumstances we took the right decision not to make an offer, staying true to who we are and what we stand for in terms of maintaining a friendly approach and respecting our financial discipline.’ The initial bid, comprised of cash and shares, had an implied value of 231p per share of Direct Line — and the second was for 237p, worth some £3.17 billion. However, Ageas was ‘not able to identify additional elements based on publicly available information that would justify significant adjustments to the terms of its possible offer.’ But further offers from alternative bidders may come, and at the least, the interest has highlighted a potential value disconnect. JD Wetherspoon JD Wetherspoon's half-year results may not have been warmly welcomed by the market, perhaps due to narrow margins on sales. For context, while margins improved from 4.1% to 6.6%, this remains below 7.1% pre-pandemic margins amid a desire to remain a value offering. And debt increased by 5% year-over-year to £1.11 billion, while free cash flow fell to an outflow of 4.9p per share compared to an inflow of 132.4p last year. This was attributed to payments owed to entities including the tax office and suppliers. But operating profit was up by 81% year-over-year to £67.7 million, while revenue increased by 8.2% to £991 million and like-for-like sales rose by 9.9%. CEO Tim Martin notes that ‘the company currently anticipates a reasonable outcome for the financial year, subject to our future sales performance.’ This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.