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Early Morning Call: AUD falls as RBA surprises with 25bp hike The S&P/ASX 200 fell and the Australian dollar jumped as the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised its interest rates by 25-basis points to 3.85%. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 02 May 2023 RBA surprises with rate hike In Australia the S&P/ASX 200 fell and the Australian dollar jumped as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly raised its interest rates by 25-basis points (bp) to 3.85%, and warned that further tightening of monetary policy may be needed, depending on how the economy and inflation evolve. There are two big rate decisions this week. Tomorrow, the Federal Funds Rates are expected to rise by 25-basis points to a target range of 5%-5.25%. Economic data is now more reflecting the effects of the speed at which rates have been rising in the US, however, while GDP is slowing, with the potential this year that the US economy could go into recession, inflation is still far from under control. On Thursday, it's the turn of the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver its latest rate decision. A majority of economists expect the ECB's main refinancing rate to rise by 25-basis points to 3.75%. The deposit facility rate is forecast to rise to 3.25%, and the marginal lending rate to 4%. At the back end of last week, there was some pleasant news around gross domestic product (GDP) in both Spain and Italy, while Germany and France remain close to flat GDP quarter on quarter (QoQ). And, like in other regions worldwide, inflation remains stubbornly high. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) says food prices at British supermarkets rose 15.7% in the year to April, the biggest annual increase in records going back to 2005, but lower prices are on horizon. Overall inflation among BRC members dropped to 8.8% from March's 8.9% as price increases for non-food items slowed due to heavy discounting of clothing, footwear, and furniture. Costlier coffee beans and more expensive packaging and production of ready-meals pushed up food inflation, but prices of butter and vegetable oil were starting to decline. Business confidence in the UK is up for a fifth month in a row, according to lobby group the Institute of Directors (IoD). The IoD's "economic confidence index", which surveys company directors on issues such as the wider economy and their own plans for hiring and investment, rose to -5 in April, up from -13 the previous month. The reading was -64 in November last year. This latest reading takes the index back to levels last seen immediately before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 when it was a fraction more positive at -4. Later today, eurozone consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise by 6.8% in April year-on-year (YoY), after a 6.9% rise the previous month. In the US, the market awaits JOLTs job openings, factory orders, and API crude oil inventories. Equities Elsewhere on the equity market, HSBC posted a pretax profit of $12.9 billion for the first quarter, up 212% YoY, much higher than the $8.64bn average estimate of 17 analysts compiled by the bank. HSBC's headline profit was boosted by a reversal of a $2bn impairment it took against the planned sale of its French business, as the deal may no longer go through. HSBC announced a dividend of $0.10 per share, its first quarterly dividend since 2019. BP posted a $5bn profit in the first quarter (Q1), beating expectations of $4.3bn, but a drop on the $6.25bn recorded a year ago. The group also said it will repurchase a further $1.75 billion of shares over the next three months after buying $2.75 billion in the previous three months. BP's dividend remained unchanged at 6.61 cents per share after a 10% increase in February. In the US, pharmaceutical giant Pfizer is due to report its first quarter earnings before market open. Analysts anticipate earnings of 97 cents per share, on revenue of $16.65bn. The same quarter a year ago, Pfizer posted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.62, and revenue of $25.66bn. As in the case of its competitors, Pfizer’s top and bottom line will reflect a drop in Covid-related sales. In the case of Pfizer, the combined revenue from its Covid vaccine and antiviral pill in expected at $21.5bn this year, compared to the $57.6bn recorded in 2022. This set of earnings will be the first since the acquisition of Seagen. The oncology company, acquired in a $43bn deal, is forecast to generate revenue of about $2.2bn this year. Pfizer estimates this could rise up to $10bn by 2030. Uber Technologies is expected to post a considerably narrower loss of 8 cents per share for the first quarter. The same quarter a year ago, Uber recorded a loss per share of $3.04. Revenue is forecast by some 26% to $8.7bn. Uber earnings are due before market open. Tonight after the US closing bell, Ford Motor is expected to post earnings for Q1. Analysts expect 40 cents per share, after a loss of 78 cents a year ago, on revenue of $39.25bn, up 13% year-on-year. It would be the fourth straight quarter of sales growth for the US car maker, 'driven' by its North American market. The market will have a close look at the group's EV division after it cut prices in January after Tesla did the same. Margins are likely to be affected. Tesla posted its lowest gross margins in two years. This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

FTSE 100, DAX and Nasdaq 100 make fresh headway Indices have pushed higher in early trading, which comes despite the warning from Janet Yellen about the US debt ceiling. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 02 May 2023 FTSE 100 targets 7900 Friday witnessed an impressive recovery from the lows, averting a more bearish view. It is now up to the bulls to carry momentum forward and on above 7940 in order to point towards a fresh push to the March highs around 8000. From there a move into fresh record highs can be contemplated. A resurgence of bearish momentum that puts the price back below 7800 would mark the development of a broader retracement. Source: ProRealTime DAX pushes on towards 16,000 The index surged on Friday to yet another fresh one-year plus high, and while it is still below 16,000, an ongoing rally could now develop. This would then target the January 2022 high at 16,288, and from there the index moves to a new record high. Once more the buyers defended 16,700, so a daily close below this is needed to hint that a new pullback could be underway. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 on the up again This index too reached a fresh high for the year on Friday, and was able to rise slightly on Monday to a new nine-month peak. After consolidating in April and dropping back to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the price has now recovered and it looks like the buyers are back in control. August 2022’s high at 13,722 now comes into play. A reversal back below 12,700 is needed to suggest this bullish view is negated and that the sellers have taken charge in the short-term. Source: ProRealTime

Brent crude oil and gold slide while copper rallies on rising risk-on sentiment Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and copper amid improving sentiment. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 02 May 2023 Brent crude oil remains under pressure Brent crude oil’s April descent took it to a near one-month low at $77.36 last week as investors grapple with the prospect of further rate hikes, lingering recession fears and uncertain demand from top importer China. Brent crude oil’s recovery rally from last Friday petered out at $80.49 and whilst it and the one-month downtrend line at $80.16 cap, renewed downside is expected to be witnessed. Were the January low and the late April low at $77.65 to $77.36 to be slipped through, the December trough at $75.32 would be eyed. Further down lies the $70.09 March low. While Friday’s high at $80.49 caps, further downside is expected to be seen. Above it meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) $81.25. Source: ProRealTime Gold slips towards the lower end of its sideways trading range Gold continues to range trade below its one-year $2,048 per troy ounce April peak and does so around the psychological $2,000 mark while being stuck in a sideways trading range between $2,012 and $1,970 since mid-April, the break out of which is likely to determine the ensuing trend. JPMorgan’s US government-backed takeover of First Republic Bank over the weekend has led to risk-on sentiment which pushed the gold price lower. A fall and daily chart close below the $1,970 mid-April low would target the February high at $1,959, ahead of the $1,950 to $1,935 support zone, made up of the late March and early April lows. Immediate resistance above the minor psychological $2,000 mark continues to be seen between the $2,006 to $2,009 mid-to late April highs. Only a currently unexpected rise and daily chart close above the $2,012 level would engage the 5 April high at $2,032 and probably also the $2,048 peak. Source: ProRealTime Copper bounces off its March and April lows The price of copper gapped higher on Monday morning, having previously bounced off its March and April $8,443 to $8,428 per ton lows, as risk-on sentiment rises. Monday’s minor price gap at $8,650 to $8,639 might nonetheless be filled before further upside takes the industrial metal back towards its 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $8,873. Only a currently unexpected drop through the $8,428 April trough would engage the 200-day SMA at $8,322. Further down sits the January trough at $8,189. Source: ProRealTime

Hi @Agarwal Thanks for sharing! All the best - MongiIG

The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week Week commencing 1 May Chris Beauchamp's insight It will be another busy week, as earnings from Apple, Ford, and others compete for attention with rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), European Central Bank’s (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). To cap it all off, we have the monthly US job reports, in the shape of the automatic data processing (ADP) and non-farm payrolls (NFP) figures. Economic reports Weekly view Monday UK Spring Bank holiday 6am – Japan consumer confidence (April): expected to fall to 32. Markets to watch: JPY crosses 3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (April): index to rise to 46.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses Tuesday 5.30am – RBA rate decision: rates to be held at 3.6%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses 10am – eurozone inflation (April): YoY rate to fall to 6.6% and MoM to 0.3%. Core to hold at 5.7% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses Wednesday 1.15pm – US ADP employment report (April): 150K jobs expected to have been created, from 150K last month. Markets to watch: USD crosses 3pm – US ISM services PMI (April): expected to fall to 50.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 28 April): stockpiles fell by 5 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI 7pm – FOMC rate decision: rates to rise to 5.25%. Commentary around potential future hikes or a pause will be key for market direction. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Thursday 2.45am – China Caixin mfg PMI (April): index to rise to 50.4. Markets to watch: CNH crosses 1.15pm – ECB rate decision: rates to rise to 3.75%, up 25 bps, though a 50bps hike cannot be ruled out. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 29 April): claims rose to 230K in the previous week. Markets to watch: USD crosses Friday 2.45am – China Caixin services PMI (April): expected to rise to 58. Markets to watch: CNH crosses 1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (April): payrolls to rise by 181K, down from 236K last month. Unemployment rate to rise to 3.6% and average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% MoM and 4% YoY. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Company announcements Monday 1 May Tuesday 2 May Wednesday 3 May Thursday 4 May Friday 5 May Full-year earnings Half/ Quarterly earnings Logitech BP, HSBC, Pfizer, Ford, Uber, AMD Lloyds, Barratt Developments, Metro Bank, Airbus, BNP Paribas, Flutter Entertainment Shell, Volkswagen, Apple IAG, Air France, Adidas Trading update* Next, BAE Systems Intercontinental Hotels Dividends FTSE 100: Glencore, St James’s Place, Admiral, Hiscox FTSE 250: Lancashire Holdings Ltd, 4imprint, Blackrock World Mining, Edinburgh Inv Trust Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days. Index adjustments Monday 1 May Tuesday 2 May Wednesday 3 May Thursday 4 May Friday 5 May Monday 8 May FTSE 100 1.60 Australia 200 7.3 Wall Street 4.6 10.9 US 500 0.03 0.04 0.45 0.23 0.09 0.27 Nasdaq 1.07 1.13 0.43 Netherlands 25 EU Stocks 50 4.3 0.9 5.7 9.0 7.0 4.3 China H-Shares Singapore Blue Chip 0.19 0.12 1.57 Hong Kong HS50 1.8 South Africa 40 11 28.1 Italy 40 Japan 225

Your weekly financial calendar for market insights and key economic indicators for April 24, 2023. Source: Bloomberg Indices Inflation Monetary policy Interest rate Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Friday 21 April 2023 Reading time: 4 minutes FOLLOWING THE BANKING crisis last month, there was an expectation that central bank rate hikes would soon give way to rate cuts or, at worse, a pause. However, central bank communique this week and mixed data suggest central banks have unfinished business in their battle to tame inflation. RBA minutes confirmed a close decision to pause rate hike cycle, with Australian interest rate pricing in 25% chance of 25bp rate hike in May UK inflation remains high, with BoE expected to raise rates by 25bp to 4.50% US inflation expectations rose to 4.6% in April Fed officials have mixed views on interest rates, with Bullard favoring 5.5-5.75% range, while Bostic prefers one more rate rise then hold Q1 2023 earnings reports have started, with Netflix and Tesla seeing share price drops after reporting VIX index fell to 16.5, its lowest since Jan 2022 RBA Review released key recommendations, including continuation of 2-3% inflation target and creation of separate Monetary Policy and Governance Boards. ↵ Wednesday, April 26 at 11.30am AEST: AU CPI Thursday, April 27 at 11.30am AEST: ANZ Business Confidence Friday, April 28 (no set time): Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision Wednesday, April 26 at 12.00am AEST: Consumer Confidenc Thursday, April 27 at 10.30pm AEST: Q1 GDP Advanced Friday, April 28th at 10.30pm AEST: Core PCE Price Index Friday, April 28th at 6:00pm AEST: EZ and DE - Q1 GDP flash Friday, April 28th at 10:00pm AEST: DE - Inflation Source: Bloomberg Australia + NZ Q1 2023 CPI report Wednesday, April 26th at 11.30am AEST: As revealed in the RBA meeting minutes for April, the Board discussed the various pros and cons of raising rates by a further 25bp on top of a substantial 350bp of rate rises or keeping rates on hold at 3.60%. “[O]n balance, [we] agreed that there was a stronger case to pause at this meeting and reassess the need for further tightening at future meetings.” The minutes reiterated “that it was important to be clear that monetary policy may need to be tightened at subsequent meetings” and, in the final paragraph, noted the Board’s future cash rate decisions would depend on developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.” The release of stronger-than-expected labour market data in mid-April confirmed that the labour market remains extremely tight. Should next week’s all-important CPI print fail to confirm that inflation is falling as quickly as anticipated, the RBA may act on its tightening bias and hike the cash rate again as soon as next month. The key numbers: Headline CPI is expected to increase by 1.3% in Q1 2023 for an annual rate of 6.9%, falling from 7.8% in Q4 2022. Trimmed mean is expected to rise by 1.4% in Q1 2023 for an annual rate of 6.7%, falling from 6.9% in Q4 2022 Trimmed mean chart Source: TradingEconomics Japan BoJ interest rate decision Friday, April 28th – no set time: The new Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda, began his five-year term earlier this month tasked with the responsibility of exiting the ultra-loose monetary policy of his predecessor Kuroda and delivering a “soft landing”. While no adjustment to YCC policy is expected this month, a surprise move cannot be ruled out, which would send both the Nikkei and USD/JPY sharply lower. Bank of Japan Source: Bloomberg US Q1 2023 earnings reports Earnings reports are set to flow in the coming week from Megatech companies, including Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon, as well as Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, McDonald’s, Boeing, Exxon and Chevron. Core PCE Price Index Friday, April 28th at 10.30pm: The Feds preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE Price Index, is expected to fall to 4.6% in March from 4.7% in February. This would be the lowest reading in sixteen months. A higher-than-expected number would all but seal the deal for a 25bp rate hike at the upcoming May FOMC meeting and raise concerns that higher rates are needed to tame inflation. Core PCE Price Index chart Source: TradingEconomics Economics calendar All times shown in AEST (UTC+10) unless otherwise stated. Source: DailyFX

Earnings season takes a breather today, as the world's financial markets focus on flash PMIs from around the globe. Over the last month, risk appetite has rebounded from the post-Silcon Valley/Credit Suisse lows, but the bounce has slowed in recent days as markets digest the first earnings reports for Q1. Now they shift back, if only for a day, to economic data. Growth fears are returning, and signs of softness in service PMIs may outweigh the expected recovery in the manufacturing equivalents. In Japan, core inflation rose by more than expected ahead of the BoJ meeting next week, but the Nikkei still managed a brief surge to an eight-month high. This morning's European PMIs are followed up by the US numbers this afternoon, as well as earning from Procter & Gamble.

Despite robust air travel demand, American Airlines’ share price is still down 32% over the past one year. Can its Q1 earnings provide a positive surprise? Source: Bloomberg Shares Commodities Demand United States Airline American Airlines Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Thursday 20 April 2023 When does American Airlines report earnings? American Airlines is set to release its quarter one (Q1) financial results on 27 April 2023, before the market opens. American Airlines’ earnings – what to expect Recent update of its Q1 profit outlook came with disappointment, as the airline expects post-adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to come in between one and five cents. While this is higher than the previous forecast of near break-even, that guidance has underperformed the six cents expected by markets. Refinitiv estimates suggest that revenue may continue to deliver with a 37.2% year-on-year growth, just a slight tick lower than the 39.9% growth in Q4 2022. Travel demand and airline fares still resilient, but can it last? A look at the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoint numbers suggests that travel demand has remained robust in Q1 2023, particularly with an eye-catching recovery in February-March pushing back against speculations that travel demand has peaked. Some resilience seems to be reflected here, as though the restrictive rate environment has yet to feed into consumers’ desire to travel. To top it off, after eight months of decline, US airline fares are also back on the move with a sturdy reversal in February 2023. The confluence of higher travel volume and higher airline fares could still serve as positive contributors to AAL’s upcoming 1Q results. Source: Transportation Security Administration (TSA) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics With 1Q 2023 guidance laid out, more focus could be on 2Q 2023 outlook That said, the sustainability of consumer demand over the coming quarters will be the key focus, as discretionary travel spending is still at the mercy of weaker economic conditions. With the 1Q 2023 guidance laid out (and share price reacted accordingly with a 9.2% sell-off), market watchers will be looking for any positive surprises in terms of the 2Q outlook, especially when it marked the beginning of the summer travel season. Based on Refinitiv estimates, the next two quarters are expected to see AAL’s quarterly revenue top out, so any pushback on that front will provide the much-needed reassurances for some relief. Elevated costs remain the key challenges for earnings From the company’s earlier guidance, persistently high fuel and labour costs continue to instil downside risks for earnings, offsetting some of the positive effects from resilient travel demand. Still-low unemployment rate and elevated job opening numbers continue to keep labour costs on a slow grind higher, while a surprise move to cut oil production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) has a renewed lift for oil prices in March. These will be earnings headwinds which the management will have to address and for now, it seems that elevated cost pressures will remain for longer while travel demand faces the risks of fizzling out ahead, which kept some investors shunning. Technical analysis – Several resistance needs to be overcome to establish renewed uptrend AAL’s share price seems to be trading within a longer-term descending triangle pattern, as intermittent attempts to rally thus far eventually failed to sustain. Several resistance will have to be overcome, in order to provide greater conviction of a renewed upward trend. This includes its key 200-day moving average (MA), along with the downward trendline resistance. For now, a potential bullish divergence in moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) may point to some abating selling pressure, but any upside could still be a correction phase for a new leg lower. The US$12.00 level will be a key support to watch, having kept prices afloat on at least three occasions over the past year. A breakdown of the level could potentially pave the way to retest the US$10.60 level next. Source: IG charts

Charting the Markets: 20 April Indices come under pressure in early trading. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP trade sideways while USD/JPY continues its ascent. And Brent crude oil slides, sugar stalls and gold stabilises. Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Thursday 20 April 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

Early Morning Call: Germany PPI shows lowest increase in nearly two years In Germany, producer price index fell more than expected month-on-month, and was down 2.6% in March. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 20 April 2023 Indices overview Equity markets are little changed around the globe. Yesterday, the Dow Jones recorded the largest daily variation with a 0.23% fall. The currency market is equally hesitant this Thursday, apart from the New Zealand dollar, which is down against all major currencies as consumer price index in the country rose 6.7% year-on-year (YoY) in the first three months of the year, slowing from the 7.2% increase in the fourth quarter (Q4). In China, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) kept its key lending rates unchanged for an eighth straight month earlier this morning. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was left unchanged at 3.65%, while the five-year LPR, which is the reference for mortgages, was kept at 4.3% In Japan, import growth continued to outpace exports in March, due on the import side to the cost of energy prices, and on the export side to a fall of shipments to China. Exports rose 4.3% in March from a year earlier, logging a 25th straight month of increase. This was more than economists' median estimate of a 2.6% gain, but below the 6.5% increase recorded in February. Exports to China, Japan's largest trading partner, fell 7.7%. Australia's central bank is expected to get a new specialist board to manage monetary policy that will give independent expert members more responsibility for setting interest rates, a dilution of the bank's traditional power over policy. The review recommended the MPB meet eight times a year, instead of the current 11, more in line with international practice. In Germany, producer price index (PPI) fell more than expected month-on-month (MoM), and was down 2.6% in March. Economists had anticipated a 0.5% fall. This mean that PPI rose by "only" 7.5% YoY, after a 15.8% rise the previous month, the smallest rise since May 2021. Also expected today, initial jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index and existing home sales in the US, and at 3pm, eurozone consumer confidence flash is forecast to rise to -18.5 in April, from -19.2 the previous month, which would be a 14-month high for the index. Equities Elsewhere on the equity market, Rio Tinto reported a better-than-expected 15.4% jump in iron ore shipments in the first quarter (Q1). Rio Tinto shipped 82.5 million tonnes of iron ore from Pilbara operations in the period, to be compared with the 71.5 million tonnes of the first tree months of 2022, and beating analysts' 79.8 million tonnes forecast. Rio reaffirmed its annual iron ore shipments forecast of between 320 and 335 MT and unit cost estimate of $21 to $22.5 per tonne of Pilbara iron ore. Tesla shares fell by nearly 8% in extended trading after the electric car maker posted its lowest quarterly gross margin in two years. Top and bottom lines were marginally below expectations. Tesla posted earnings of 85 cents per share on revenue of $23.30 billion. The Street anticipated earnings per share (EPS) of 86 cents and revenue at $23.78bn. Since January Tesla has cut its prices, first in China, then in Europe and the US, in an attempt to spur demand and fend off rising competition. But as expected this had an impact on gross margins, which fell to 19.3%, lower than the 21.2% expected by analysts. In the conference call following the release, CEO Elon Musk said "It was better to shift a large number of cars at lower margin and harvest that margin in the future as we perfect autonomy." Investors were also taken aback by Tesla's production forecast. Musk had said earlier this year two million vehicle deliveries were achievable, a number he didn't confirm yesterday evening. Instead, he stood by the company's official target of 1.8 million deliveries. IBM posted mixed results yesterday evening. Earnings per share came in higher than expected at $1.36, 9 cents, while revenue fell marginally short of expectations, at $14.30bn. Shares initially rose at the release but quickly pared these gains to end the session 0.56% higher. Set to report earnings today are AT&T, Philip Morris, and American Express. Commodities US crude oil inventories last week fell more than forecast. Crude oil stocks fell 4.6 million barrels. Analysts anticipated a 1.1 million barrel fall. This was due to an increase of refining activity. Refinery utilisation rates rose by 1.7 percentage points to 91%, its highest rate since late December. Meanwhile gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose on disappointing demand by 1.3 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles fell by 400,000 barrels. This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

The move higher in risk assets seems to have stalled again, as investors digest the latest round of earnings and await the next set of central bank decisions. Hawkish commentary from some ECB members, and higher inflation readings in the UK, have sent the message that the battle against higher prices is not done yet, and while economic data remains generally supportive, recession fears lurk in the background. Nonetheless, global indices have so far avoided any significant turn lower, holding their ground well. Tesla's quest for market share at the expense of profit margins has not gone down well with investors, and the stock is heading back to the March lows. As well as weekly jobless claims in the US and eurozone consumer confidence, earnings today include reports from American Airlines and AT&T among others.

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage: Indices: Europe expected to open little changed from Wednesday’s close Equities: TSLA disappointed last night after the bell stk down 7.8%. IBM rose 0.8% after Q1. Earnings today – SMWH RIO ATT AXP PM FX: Kiwi biggest mover – falling after soft NZ inflation data. USD little move. As expected China keeps rates on hold. JPN annual trade deficit widens to a record as exports slow from 6.5% to 4.3% Commods: Gold consolidates below $2000. Oil at its lowest point his month

Reporting its first quarter earnings, Tesla is fighting ferociously in an increasingly tight corner. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023 The electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer is hoping for increased deliveries in an increasingly competitive market against far bigger carmakers who are in the fast lane to take market share. Tesla founder and CEO, Elon Musk, has promised two million deliveries this year and is cutting prices to maintain the company’s lead in the EV market. Cutting prices eats into margins, but if, as Musk hopes, less expensive cars bring in more demand, then the margin shortfall is offset. IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor explains that if Tesla fails to live up to its hopes and aspiration for its performance, against increased competition, shares could crash to recent support a $164. (Video Transcript) EV car maker Tesla will be the stock to watch this evening as it reports its first quarter (Q1) numbers. It's all-sessions on the IG platform which means you can trade it after the bell tonight. Analysts are looking for earnings of 86 cents per share on a 20% rise in revenue compared to the same period last year, to $23 and three quarter billion. Now there are several things going on with the company itself and the market into which it's selling. First of all earlier this year, Elon Musk issued a target for the company to produce two million cars this year. Now, bearing in mind, Tesla is the world's most valuable car maker. Toyota produced eight million cars last year but given the current economic environment demand is really what preoccupies the market now to support demand. Tesla has repeatedly cut its prices most recently today, which was the sixth such announcement this year. Then cutting prices eats into margins. Tesla cannot be seen to be cannibalising its own profit margins at the expense of its own market share trying to sell into an increasingly competitive electric vehicle market into which Toyota as just one example of some big car makers out there is racing to deliver increased production. Share price chart Let's take a look at the share price chart because this is interesting. It's currently trading on the IG platform on the session today. Premarket, it's down 2% at $180.44. Now, if we get a disappointment tonight and this stock drops, this line of support down here was established back on the 13th of March at $164.02. I think is very, very vulnerable into which they could end up selling down into levels not seen since the middle of January. For example, on the flip side, if Elon Musk does pull a rabbit out of the hat and he proves that his strategy is right and deliveries are up and profits rise and margins are sustained overall in the longer term in terms of its increased demand, helping it bring more money onto the profit and loss account, then we could well end up seeing this area up here, the 200 day moving average at $212.95 being the target to watch out for. Trading Tesla So it really is a question of what you believe is coming down the pipe. The numbers will come out after the bell tonight and you'll be able to trade this. Now, if you're short on this, going into the numbers, you'll stop here, it goes above the 50-period moving average, which is this green line up here. So you'll stop at around about and $195 - 180 is where we're trading. And I think this line is vulnerable down here at 164. If you think that Elon Musk and the company is likely to pull, as I say, a rabbit out of the hat and prove that things are going well, your stock goes underneath this level down here, which is 100 period moving average around about $170 -180 is where we're trading. And I think this area up here is your price target. So it's just a question of how you believe this will all develop. And let me just quickly remind you as well after the bell tonight, when we hear the press conference, Elon Musk will be delivering that through Twitter. No surprises there.

Look Ahead to 20/4/23: Eurozone consumer confidence; WH Smith, AT&T and American Express earnings The spotlight falls on the consumer both sides of the Atlantic with consumer confidence numbers from the eurozone, and results from WH Smith, AT&T, and credit card giant American Express. Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023

The Boeing Co. is expected to see a sharp rise in first quarter revenue and earnings, although will likely remain in loss making territory. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Price Revenue Stock Share price Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023 When is the Boeing Co. (BA) earnings date? Boeing Co., the NYSE listed aerospace and defense company’s earnings release date is scheduled for the 26th of April 2023. The scheduled results will cover the groups first quarter of the 2023 fiscal year (Q1 2023). Boeing Co. results preview: What does the street expect? In terms of the upcoming results, a mean of analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv data arrive at the following: Revenue $17.567bn (+25.56% year on year) Earnings per share (EPS) -$1.04 (+62.14% year on year) An improving ‘post’ COVID-19 commercial aerospace industry and outlook is expected to equate to a vast improvement in the Boeing Co.’s Q1 2023 results, relative to the prior year’s comparative period. A recent update from the company showed that jet deliveries for the first quarter of the year were roughly 37% more than in Q1 2022. The increased sales are expected to bolster revenue by more than a quarter and move earnings significantly closer towards profitability. How to trade the Boeing Co. results Source: IG A Refinitiv poll of 26 analyst ratings arrive at a long-term consensus rating of ‘buy’ for the Boeing Co. (as of the 19th of April 2023). A consensus of analyst long-term price targets for the Boeing Co. arrives at a median price of $231.86. The Boeing Co. share price: technical analysis Source: IG The share price of Boeing looks to have reversed its long term down trend into a new uptrend. In the short term however, the price trades within a range between levels 196.20 (support) and 219.30 (resistance). Trend followers might prefer keeping a long bias to trades on the company in lieu of the longer-term uptrend now considered. Range traders might look to find entry on a bullish price reversal closer to the 196.20 support level, while breakout traders might prefer to wait for a close above range resistance at 219.30 before looking for long entry into the stock. In summary The Boeing Co. is scheduled to release Q1 2023 results on the 26th of April 2023 The company is expected to see a sharp improvement in its loss per share relative to the prior year’s comparative period The average broker consensus rating for the stock is a ‘buy’ The long-term price trend for Boeing appears to have reversed from down to up The share price trades within a range over the short term

We believe that USD/CAD is again bottoming out around the $1.33 mark and that the US dollar will likely appreciate over the coming weeks. We would thus like to go long USD/CAD at $1.3430 with a stop-loss at $1.3300 and an upside target at $1.3700. Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023

Charting the Markets: 19 April FTSE 100, CAC 40 and S&P 500 likely to consolidate. EUR/USD steady, while GBP/USD and USD/CAD rise. And WTI and silver are topping out short-term while cocoa trades in 6 ½ year highs. Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023 This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

EUR/USD steady, while GBP/USD and USD/CAD rise Inflation figures have pushed sterling higher this morning, while USD/CAD has returned to the 200-day SMA. Source: Bloomberg Forex United States dollar Canadian dollar Pound sterling USD/CAD Inflation Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023 EUR/USD little-changed in early trading EUR/USD rebounded on Tuesday, maintaining the uptrend for the time being. After a steady stair-step move higher over the past three weeks, the index still looks on course to move above $1.10 again, and then on towards the $1.12 level. A more serious move lower would require a drop back below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating that the March lows around $1.05 may be tested. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD bolstered by inflation news Stronger wage data on Tuesday supported GBP/USD and allowed it to consolidate after falling back from $1.25, and inflation numbers this morning have provided further impetus. The overall upward move continues, and last May’s highs at $1.266 become the next target as the pound continues to appreciate against the US dollar. Dips remain buying opportunities for the time being. A move back below $1.22 would be needed to suggest that a more neutral view prevails. Source: ProRealTime USD/CAD returns to the 200-day SMA A push back to the 200-day SMA means that the longer-term move higher may not be entirely finished with USD/CAD. The price has stabilised after its steep drop from the March highs, and a move back above the 200-day SMA and the C$1.34 level could point towards a renewed bounce, particularly if accompanied by a bullish moving average convergence divergence (MACD) crossover. This might then suggest that a move back towards C$1.356 is in the offing, and potentially back towards C$1.38 over time. A move back below C$1.33 would negate this view and bring the November 2022 and February 2023 lows around C$1.326 into view as support again. Source: ProRealTime

Comments from the board seemed to soothe what had been a big negative reaction to first quarter earnings after the bell last night. This was followed by an immediate snapback after co-chief executive gave an upbeat outlook. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023 Netflix Q1 earnings The Nasdaq-listed streaming giant Netflix is up and running this morning all-sessions on the IG platform after last night having a rollercoaster ride after it beat Wall Street first quarter (Q1) earnings per share estimates by a whisker. But then came concerns about the outlook and then came a recovery. Let's take a look at the numbers - it posted earnings of $2.88 per share, two cents higher than forecast, with revenue coming in broadly in line at just shy of $8.2 billion. Now from January through to March, Netflix added one and three quarter million streaming subscribers missing analyst estimates of just over two million additions. But it's not that, that it wants to be measured by, it wants to be measured by revenues. It forecasts eight and a quarter billion in revenue, diluted earnings per share at $2. 86 - analysts expected on average 8.5 billion for revenue and just over $3 per share on earnings per share. Share price chart Let's take a look at what happened in terms of the share price movement last night. You can see clearly on this daily chart here if I transfer this onto a one hour chart. You can see the point at which it reported those earnings and that first power of trade was a stunning loss of almost 12% in total value of the company. Then came the rebound. The company price initially dropped in extended trade but recovered those losses in a matter of 40 minutes or so lifted by an upbeat post earnings video interview where the co-chief executive, Ted Sarandos said Netflix is growing and is profitable. He said they have a clear path to accelerate growth in both revenue and profit and are executing it. Back to the daily chart just to look at where we're going from here. Despite the fact we broke this rising line of support that we've seen since the 13th of July last year, I think this still is in place and in the longer term, measuring what we heard from the chief executive last night, longer term, the company is expecting to see more appreciable growth.

WTI and silver are topping out short-term while cocoa trades in 6 ½ year highs Technical outlook on WTI, silver and cocoa prices with the latter approaching the psychological $3,000 per metric ton mark. Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023 WTI continues to slide WTI continues to slide as Chinese refineries processed a record amount of crude in March and as Russia’s crude oil exports bounced back above three million barrels a day last week, according to Bloomberg. Iraq is also hoping to resume oil exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan after being halted last month, all of which puts downward pressure on the price of crude oil. Last Tuesday’s low at $79.40 may be reached on a fall through the $80 mark with the breached January-to-March resistance line at $79.22, because of inverse polarity, now a support line, offering potential support. Further down sits the $79.02 March-to-April gap high point with the gap descending all the way down to $75.76. Immediate downside pressure should be maintained while the early April high at $81.79 caps on a daily chart closing basis. Further up meanders the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $82.35. Source: ProRealTime Silver price comes off its one-year high The near 30% rally in the price of silver from just below the $20 per troy ounce level in early March has given way to some profit taking with it slipping back below the $25 mark and heading back down towards the $24.63 early February high. Together with the last reaction low at $24.57 it is likely to offer at least initial support. If slipped through, however, the December high at $24.30 may be reached next. Immediate resistance can be found at Tuesday’s $25.32 high ahead of last week’s $26.09 one-year high. Further up sits the April 2022 peak at $26.22, followed by the March 2022 high at $26.95. Source: ProRealTime NY cocoa futures surge to 6 ½ year high Front month NY cocoa futures continue to surge higher and now trade in 6 ½ year highs whilst fast approaching the $2,992 August 2015 low and psychological $3,000 per metric ton level amid ongoing supply issues in top grower Ivory Coast. Minor support can be seen at the $2,930 March peak. As long as the March-to-April uptrend line at $2,896 and the last reaction low at Monday’s $2,886 trough hold on a daily chart closing basis, an upside bias remains in place. The medium-term uptrend will remain valid as long as the late March to April lows at $2,831 underpin on a daily chart closing basis. Source: ProRealTime

The fact that the headline rate remains in double digits means it’s been in this region since August last year. Economists had expected the figure to fall to 9.8pc. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023 It had also been expected to fall back into single digits last month before an unexpected increase to 10.4pc amid soaring food prices. Food and non-alcoholic drink prices were the key driver of inflation, rising by 19.2pc in the year to March. Vegetable shortages had helped push food and non-alcohol prices up to 18.2pc in February, reflecting the sharpest increase in more than 45 years.

The DAX index hit a 15-month high above 16,000, supported by firm growth and the release of UK inflation data is expected to show a slight fall in March, but not enough to stop the BoE from raising rates by 25bp in May. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Inflation DAX FTSE 100 United Kingdom Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023 A mixed session for US equity markets as investors digested key earnings reports and messaging from Fed Speakers ahead of the blackout period before the next Fed meeting. However, there are no such concerns for key European Equity Indices, which continue to climb from March lows. DAX The DAX, traded above 16,000 for the first time in 15 months, continuing to be supported by decelerating inflation and firm growth. However, some cracks emerged overnight. The April ZEW business survey showed that Germany's current business conditions rose from -46.5 to -32.5. The forward-looking expectations index fell to 4.1 vs consensus expectations of 15.6. A second month of declines reflects uncertainty around the European banking system and credit availability. The release on Friday night of flash Eurozone PMIs is expected to show a slight fall in the composite index to 53.4 from 53.7 in March on the back of banking concerns and strikes. The UK In the UK, the overnight release of the labour market report for the quarter to February showed the unemployment rate increased to 3.8% from 3.7%, a sign of rebalancing in the labour market. Concerningly, Average Weekly Earnings rose 5.9% YoY for the quarter to February, above the market forecast of 5.1%. Attention now turns to the release this afternoon (4.00pm AEST) of UK inflation data for March, which is expected to show headline inflation fell to 9.8% from 10.4%. Unfortunately, this is not enough of a fall to stop the Bank of England from raising rates by another 25bp at its meeting in May. DAX technical analysis Well, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, the view remains that the DAX is in the process of forming a top supported by signs of bearish divergence. However, a sustained break back below the support at 15,700/600 (coming from the band of highs in February and March) is needed to confirm that a deeper pullback is underway towards an uptrend and horizontal support at 15,200. Until then, allow the rally to extend towards 16,400. DAX daily chart Source: TradingView FTSE technical analysis The FTSE has gained in 14 of the past 15 sessions, rallying much further than anticipated. While the FTSE is approaching overbought territory, there are no signs of divergence which means we can’t rule out a test and break of the year-to-date 8047 high before a retracement back towards support at 7700 commences. FTSE daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of April 19, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

Alphabet’s share price has surged more than 17% year-to-date. Can the positive momentum continue in light of upcoming Q1 results? Source: Bloomberg Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023 When does Alphabet report earnings? Alphabet Inc is set to release its quarter one (Q1) financial results on 25 April 2023, after market closes. Alphabet’s earnings – what to expect Current expectations from Refinitiv are for Alphabet’s upcoming Q1 revenue to come in at $68.8 billion, up 1.2% year-on-year. Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to come in at $1.07, a 13.1% decline from a year ago. Advertising environment remains tough but signs of resilience will be on watch 78% of Alphabet’s top line comes from Google advertising revenue, so development on that front will continue to drive the numbers for its upcoming results. Given the cyclical nature of the advertising market, there is little doubt that the uncertain economic outlook will lead corporates to continue tightening their belts and pull back on advertising spending, weighing on Alphabet’s key revenue generator as a result. However, with the downbeat environment being a given, signs of resilience will be what market participants are looking for. Current expectations are for a 1.7% decline in advertising revenue from the previous year. Considering that 1Q 2023 brought about a more restrictive interest rate environment and unexpected instabilities in the global banking space, one may argue that a mere 1.7% contraction can be a remarkable feat and meeting expectations may provide a source of relief. Furthermore, 1Q 2023 saw the US economic surprise index revert back into positive territory to deliver its highest reading since April 2022. A still-robust US labour market may play a part and the positive reading suggests that economic conditions could still be holding up above expectations, at least for 1Q 2023. This may raise the odds of potential resilience being reflected in the upcoming results. Alphabet derives almost half of its revenue from the US. Source: Refinitiv Hopes for its cloud division to cushion lower advertising revenue All eyes will also be on Alphabet’s cloud division to provide some cushion against the lower advertising revenue and will be key in helping the company eke out a positive top line growth for the upcoming results. Expectations are for a further slowdown in the segment’s growth, but nevertheless, still showing a strong double-digit increase from a year ago (expected 28.7% versus 32.0% in Q4 2022). While corporates are more cautious with their spending now, digital transformation in business processes is still expected to remain the priority to maintain longer-term competitiveness. With that, signs of resilience in cloud adoption will be on the lookout. According to Refinitiv, for the past four straight quarters, Alphabet has failed to deliver up to expectations for both its top and bottom line. Therefore, meeting or exceeding estimates this time round may provide a much-needed positive surprise. ChatGPT – Will Alphabet’s search-engine dominance slip? With the recent hype around ChatGPT, Google has been deemed to be on the backfoot in integrating AI capabilities for its search features. Previous launch of its own version of AI Chatbot, Bard, has created an uproar about its misinformation. Therefore, focus will also be on how its management will convince investors in staying competitive to avoid losing market share. For now, Alphabet remains the dominant player in the search engine market with more than 80% market share, but it will be a race against time to defend its share of the pie with intense competition. Any guidance on the progress of its Bard integration will be on close watch. To add to more uncertainties, Samsung is also reportedly considering making Microsoft Bing the default search engine on its Galaxy phones, instead of Google. While it could be a move from Samsung to squeeze more billions from Google ahead of its deal renewal, this will be an issue which needs to be addressed by the management as well. Technical analysis – Rising channel pattern in focus From its technicals, Alphabet’s share price has been largely trading within a rising channel pattern since November last year. The series of higher highs and higher lows still keep an upward trend in place, while its share price successfully defended the key 200-day moving average (MA) lately. That said, recent retests of the upper channel trendline were met with some resistance, with declining Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) on recent price highs suggesting some moderation in upward momentum for now. Greater conviction may come from an upward break of the US$110 level to pave the way towards the US$117 level next. On the downside, its 200-day MA remains a key trendline to watch and holding the line may still keep its prevailing upward trend intact. Source: IG charts

Investor Spotlight - US earnings: banks beat but earnings expectations low In this week’s Investor Spotlight, we look at early banking results, what investors are expecting from S&P 500 earnings for the quarter, and three stocks to watch in the week ahead.

Hi @GeorgeTheBoss Welcome to the IG community. What type of trader are you? Scalper, day trader, swing trader, position trader, algorithmic trader or event-driven trader ? If you don't mind, please share your routine when it comes to your trading style. All the best - MongiIG