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The new month kicked off with several stock market indices hitting record highs on Thursday. Japan's Nikkei Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all closed at fresh record peaks. The gains were buoyed by tech stocks like NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices. Stock markets are in an upbeat mood after US inflation figures came in line with expectations on Thursday. This helped shape forecasts for the timing of future Fed interest rate cuts. It extended the ongoing global equity rally and also pushed Treasury yields lower. The DAX also reached a new all-time high on Thursday. Europe opens today waiting for inflation data that should indicate inflation is moving back toward the 2% target. This comes after data showed inflation dropping in countries like Germany, France and Spain thanks to lower energy and food prices. The ECB has maintained record-high interest rates since September. Also on the calendar today is the US ISM manufacturing PMI.

Dow and Nasdaq 100 ease back while Hang Seng bounce hits a wall US indices continue to tiptoe lower after last week’s highs, while the Hang Seng’s bounce from the January lows is coming under pressure. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Thursday 29 February 2024 11:57 Dow drifts down The index continues to edge lower, surrendering some of yesterday’s recovery from the lows. In the short-term, we may finally see a test of the still-rising 50-day simple moving average, something that has not happened since the rally began in October. Before this the price may find support at the rising trendline from mid-January. Should this see a bounce develop, then the previous highs at 39,287 come into play, and could clear the way for a test of 40,000. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 edges down to trendline support Like the Dow, the Nasdaq 100 is easing back from its recent highs, though the declines here are even more muted. Potential trendline support from early January comes into play near 17,600, while below this is the 50-day SMA and last week’s low at 17,320. Source: ProRealTime Hang Seng under pressure as rally fades Those waiting for a fresh leg lower in this index’s ongoing downtrend will have been pleased to see the sharp drop on Wednesday that culminated at a close almost at the lows and back below the 100-day SMA. Further losses below last week’s low at 16,065 would reinforce the bearish view and suggest that the downtrend is back in play, targeting the lows of January at 14,755. Bulls will want to see a close back above 16,900 to indicate that the index is continuing its counter-trend bounce. Source: ProRealTime

WTI slips on large US stock build while silver price falls and Chicago wheat stays range bound Source: Bloomberg Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Thursday 29 February 2024 11:47 WTI declines on large US stock build Front month WTI futures have once again been rejected by their mid-November to February 78.87 to 79.62 resistance zone amid a large US stock build. The oil price slid back to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 77.73 around which it is expected to oscillate over the coming days. While this week’s low at 75.77 underpins, the medium-term uptrend will remain intact, though. Minor support ahead of this level sits at the 21 February 76.31 low. Source: ProRealTime Silver price remains under pressure Spot silver’s descent from its $23.50 per troy ounce February peak is taking it back to its January and February lows at $21.94 to $21.93. On the way down lies the 8 February low at $22.15. Minor resistance above the February downtrend line at $22.67 sits at the 4 January low at $22.69. Source: ProRealTime Chicago Wheat prices still hover above major support Chicago wheat front month futures continue to hold above their key 557 to 552 September and November lows which offered support in February. Further sideways trading above this key support zone and below last week’s 594 high remains at hand. Above it the December-to-February downtrend line can be spotted at 600. Support above the 557 to 552 area lies at last week’s 561 low. Source: ProRealTime

Bitcoin's explosive 2024 rally sees a nearly 50% increase and with anticipation of the halving event, the king of crypto leads a potential alt-coin rally. Source: Bloomberg Forex Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Ethereum Currency Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Thursday 29 February 2024 03:52 Bitcoin reigns supreme: the 2024 surge Bitcoin, the king of crypto, is back! After surging 20% this week, it is now up almost 50% calendar year to date, leaving all comers in its wake in the early months of 2024, including the resurgent nikkei. Where it took the nikkei a mere thirty-four years to reclaim its 1989 high, bitcoin seems set to retake its November 2021 $69,000 high in just 27 months. Bitcoin's resurrection from the crypto winter is comparable to that of the mythical Phoenix of Greek legend. But here we have a new legend taking shape, and whether it lasts for 500 years like the Phoenix, as bitcoin's proponents might hope, remains to be seen. Fueling the rally: influx of bitcoin ETFs Bitcoin's gains in recent weeks have been fuelled by record client inflows into the newly launched Bitcoin ETFs. Contributing factors include anticipation of the Bitcoin halving event in April, concerns over a partial US government shutdown, and MicroStrategy's Michael Naylor acquiring an additional 3,000 bitcoin for his already significant holdings. Significantly, bitcoin's ascendancy has begun to extend into the altcoin space, supported by speculation that ETFs for some alternative cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, Ripple, and Solana, may soon be introduced. The next frontier: Altcoins on the rise Ethereum is now firmly entrenched above $3,000, admittedly still with some work to do to reclaim its $4,868 November 2021 high. Solana at $118 is a long way from its November 2021 high. Once a pullback in bitcoin commences, traders will likely cycle into the alts, looking for the next outsized move within the crypto ecosystem. Bitcoin technical analysis This week's sharp increase in bitcoin is indicative of a Wave iii of III, the most dynamic phase of an impulsive move within our Elliott Wave framework. Declines into the mid $50,000 range are expected to be strongly supported as the market prepares for a test and likely breach of the November 2021 all-time high of $69,000. Bitcoin weekly chart Source: TradingView Ethereum technical analysis A similar narrative unfolds for Ethereum. The recent surge in Ethereum's price is characteristic of a Wave III — the most dynamic phase of an impulsive move within our Elliott Wave framework. Pullbacks towards $3,000 are expected to find strong support as the market prepares for a challenge and probable surpassing of the November 2021 high of $4,868. Ethereum weekly chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 29 February 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The US dollar and US indices steadied after a generally positive session in Asia ahead of today's widely anticipated US PCE inflation reading - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - and as a partial US government shutdown has been averted. Speeches by Fed members Bostic and Mester might provide further colour but will probably have less of an impact. The Japanese Yen got a boost from the BoJ's Takata who hinted at stronger wage growth this year and that the central bank's price target was 'coming into sight.' Other than that the data in Japan was mixed with industrial production coming in worse than expectations but retail sales beating forecasts. German CPI for February and a speech by Bundesbank President Nagel will probably determine whether the DAX 40 will make yet another record high or flatten out like its peers.

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Hi @JustinCamm Thanks for sharing Below from our analysts: DAX 40 once again trades at record highs The DAX 40 index seems to be unstoppable as it rallies to yet another record high around the 17,600 mark as the latest earnings season highlighted that European stocks remain undervalued compared to their American counterparts with regards to Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios. This has attracted further investment in Europe’s largest economy as Germany’s consumer morale also improves slightly. Minor support is seen along the accelerated uptrend line at 17,464. Above the current record high at 17,607 lies the 18,000 region. DAX 40 DAILY CHART FTSE 100 and S&P 500 Consolidate while DAX 40 Trades in New Record Highs Feb 28, 2024 1:00 PM +02:00 Axel Rudolph, IG Senior Market Analyst

An uneasy calm has settled over global markets as traders wait for new inflation data later this week, which will provide clues about the interest rate outlooks in the U.S. and Europe. While Asian markets were subdued overall, there were some bright spots. New Zealand's central bank signaled a slightly less aggressive stance on rate hikes, sparking a rally in bonds and a dip in the Kiwi dollar. South Korean shares continued their relentless February rally, lifted by AI enthusiasm and moves to boost shareholder returns. The main events this week will be the U.S. inflation report on Thursday and the eurozone numbers on Friday, which are expected to drive market direction in the coming days. For now, caution prevails, with European and U.S. futures pointing to a muted open.

European equities, particularly the German DAX, soar to new heights fueled by Nvidia's robust earnings, while investors await Euro area inflation data for further market cues. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Inflation Euro DAX European Central Bank Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Tuesday 27 February 2024 04:58 Riding the wave of Nvidia's impressive earnings report, European equities, including the stalwart German stock market, witnessed a surge to unprecedented highs last week. While the Nasdaq and the Nikkei have hogged the spotlight with their stellar performances this year, the German stock market has quietly carved its path to success. With a solid 13.4% gain in 2023, the DAX has continued its ascent, boasting a 4% increase year-to-date, even amidst the absence of notable AI players. As highlighted previously, the DAX's upward trajectory can be attributed to various crucial factors, such as a resurgence in manufacturing, a positive shift in sentiment towards China, and the resolution of the energy shock triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Equally significant has been the rapid decline in Euro Area inflation over the past sixteen months, positioning the ECB as a frontrunner among central banks expected to implement rate cuts in 2024. Insights into the timing of these potential rate adjustments will be gleaned from this week's Euro Area inflation data, as outlined below. What's on the horizon for Euro area inflation (Friday, 1 March 9:00pm) In January, headline inflation in the Euro area dipped to 2.8% YoY from December's 2.9%. Core inflation also saw a decline, settling at 3.3% YoY, marking its lowest level since March 2022. This month, expectations point to a further decrease, with headline inflation projected to drop to 2.7% YoY and core inflation anticipated to decline even further to 2.9% YoY. The minutes from the January ECB meeting, unveiled last week, underscored a widespread consensus that it was premature to broach the subject of rate cuts, emphasizing the fragile nature of the disinflationary process. This sentiment was reinforced by hawkish remarks from ECB Governing Council members Stournaras and President Lagarde, who echoed, "We are not there yet" regarding inflation. Nevertheless, the rates market is already factoring in a 25bp ECB rate cut slated for April, with a total of 88bp in cuts projected for 2024. EA annual headline inflation rate chart Source: BoE FTSE technical analysis It's the same old story for the FTSE, as it starts the new week eying resistance at 7750/65ish, which has capped for the past nine months. If the FTSE can see a sustained break above 7750/65ish, it would warrant a positive bias and open a test of the April 7936 high, with scope to the 8047 high. However, while the FTSE trades below resistance at 7750/60ish, there remains a high likelihood of further sideways rotating back towards the support at 7550/00, coming from the 200-day moving average and the mid-February 7492 low. FTSE daily chart Source: TradingView DAX technical analysis In our updates in mid to late January, we noted that due to the nature of the three-wave decline from the early January 17,123 high to the mid-Jan 16,464 low, it was likely a correction, and the DAX would push to new highs. The Dax has since made a fresh record high at 17502, and while it remains above uptrend support at 17,200 from the October 14,666 low, the path of least resistance is for higher prices to follow. Aware that should the DAX fall below support at 17,200 and below a cluster of horizontal support at 17,100, it would warn that a deeper pullback towards the 200-day moving average at 16,127 is underway. DAX daily chart Source: TradingView Source: Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 27 February 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

It’s one of the most popular traded markets on our end, and we take a look at the S&P 500’s technical overview in both weekly and daily time frames, the strategies to deploy for conformist, contrarian and ‘hold’ camps. Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai Publication date: Tuesday 27 February 2024 06:48 Dive into the conflicting sentiments of IG clients versus COT speculators and stay ahead of the game with upcoming market events. Don't miss out on this essential guide to understanding the current state of the S&P 500 and preparing for what lies ahead! This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

WTI recovers on supply worries, cotton price nears 1 1/2 year high as Arabica coffee price falls While oil and cotton price rise, Arabica coffee prices fall ahead of this week’s US GDP estimate and inflation data releases. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Tuesday 27 February 2024 12:30 WTI recovers from Monday’s low Front month WTI futures are recovering from Monday’s 75.77 low amid ongoing shipping disruptions and repeated breakdowns in talks for a Gaza cease fire that raise supply worries. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 77.68 is being retested, a rise above which would have the November-to-February resistance line and last week’s high at 78.80 to 78.84 in its sights. Minor support sits at the 21 February 76.31 low ahead of Monday’s 75.77 low. Source: ProRealTime Cotton price rises to near 1 ½ year high Front month cotton futures have resumed their ascent to their 96.38 near one-and-a-half-year high above which sits the psychological 100.00 mark. Immediate upside pressure should be maintained while Monday’s low at 92.50 underpins. Below it lies last week’s low at 90.89. Only a currently unexpected bearish reversal and fall through that low would indicate a topping formation. As long as it holds, the medium-term bullish trend will stay firmly entrenched. Source: ProRealTime Arabica coffee futures prices slip through uptrend line Front month Arabica coffee futures topped out at their 194.06 to 194.32 late January and early February highs and are now trading in near six-week lows, having last week fallen through their October-to-February uptrend line. The 8 January low at 178.56 is now in sight, a drop trough which would engage the 174.03 January trough. Minor resistance sits at last week’s 182.39 low and can also be seen along the breached uptrend line at 185.45. Further up meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 186.63. Source: ProRealTime

Rolls Royce’s impressive numbers have pushed the stock ever higher. Can the FTSE 100 blue-chip fly above 400p? Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares FTSE 100 Stock Free cash flow Roll-Royce Written by: Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London Publication date: Tuesday 27 February 2024 12:50 Rolls-Royce (LON: RR) shareholders have enjoyed an excellent couple of years. Despite the value destruction down to less than 39p per share at the start of October 2020, the stock has now recovered to 361p — and has risen by 21.2% year-to-date alone. With some analysts predicting a rise to 400p amid excellent full-year results, Rolls-Royce shares may once again become the best-performing FTSE 100 stock of this year. Rolls-Royce share price: 2023 full-year results With CEO Tufan ‘Turbo’ Erginbilgic taking the reins at the start of last year, few would have guessed the impact. Of course, while the FTSE 100 company has benefitted from the wider recovery of civil aviation, Rolls has improved on almost every metric. Underlying operating profit more than doubled from £652 million to £1.6 billion, driven by the recovering civil aerospace division, and reflecting the impact of ‘strategic initiatives, with commercial optimisation and cost efficiency benefits across the group.’ For context, the average analyst forecast had been for £1.4 billion, and in further good news, Rolls delivered an underlying margin of 10.3%. Free cash flow rose to a record £1.3 billion, driven by operating profit and continued LTSA balance growth — while return on capital more than doubled to 11.3%. Statutory net cash flow from operating activities also increased, by £1 billion to £2.5 billion. And importantly in a time of elevated interest rates, the FTSE 100 operator saw net debt fall from £3.3 billion to a much more manageable £2 billion. Erginbilgic enthused that the company’s ‘transformation has delivered a record performance in 2023, driven by commercial optimisation, cost efficiencies and progress on our strategic initiatives. This step-change has been achieved across all our divisions, despite a volatile environment with geopolitical uncertainty, supply chain challenges and inflationary pressures.’ Where next for Rolls-Royce shares? While supply chain challenges are expected to persist for the next 18 to 24 months, Rolls-Royce still expects underlying operating profit to be between £1.7 billion and £2 billion in 2024 — with free cash flow to rise to between £1.7 billion and £1.9 billion. Erginbilgic notes that ‘our strong delivery in 2023 gives us confidence in our 2024 guidance and is a significant step towards our mid-term targets. We are unlocking our full potential as a high-performing, competitive, resilient, and growing Rolls-Royce.’ In the key civil aerospace division, the company expects that 2024 large EFHs will grow to between 100 and 110% of its pre-pandemic level, based on civil net LTSA creditor growth at the low end of the mid-term range of between £800 million and £1.2 billion — compared to £1.1 billion in 2023. And the 2023 performance and 2024 guidance on operating profit and free cash flow means that by 2024 Rolls will have delivered more than 50% of the improvement set out in our mid-term targets. For context, it continues to target underlying operating profit of between £2.5 billion and £2.8 billion, operating margin of 13% to 15%, free cash flow of £2.8 billion to £3.1 billion and return on capital of circa 16-18% in the mid-term — all based on expectations for a 2027 timeframe. Despite widespread speculation, the company has chosen not to make any shareholder payouts for 2023. No dividends is often poorly received by the markets, but not in this case. Rolls did recommit to reinstating and growing shareholder distributions once it’s ‘comfortably within an investment grade profile and the strength of our balance sheet is assured.’ On the other hand, the CEO recently told The Telegraph that he was not ‘ruling out’ building the first small modular nuclear reactors outside of the UK due to the slow pace of approval. The company — in which the government owns a golden share — is one of only three that have submitted plans for regulatory approval in the UK so far and Erginbilgic notes that ‘we are ahead of everyone else.’ For context, SMRs are expected to be partially publicly funded via new body Great British Nuclear and may become a core component of the country’s energy strategy. Rolls-Royce may continue to rise through the FTSE 100 regardless. JP Morgan has a 400p price target on the stock, noting that ‘a much higher percentage of Rolls-Royce’s long-term service agreements will convert into profit.’ Goldman Sachs has a 370p target — and Citi are most bullish, with 431p the goal. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Global stocks have hit record highs recently but turned sideways this week as investors await important inflation data that could impact interest rate policy. Key economic data out later today includes French and German consumer confidence, Eurozone money supply, and US durable goods, consumer confidence, and home prices. Japanese inflation rose 2% year-over-year in January, exceeding expectations and supporting potential rate hikes in Japan this year. Japanese stocks hit a record high but then retreated to flat. US core price data on Thursday is the main event for the week, after a headline CPI reading that was stronger than expected earlier in February. On the calendar for today are US durable goods orders and consumer confidence.

Gold price and silver price look for gains but Brent crude price under fresh pressure While precious metals have seen some renewed upside, oil prices have taken a hit in early trading. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 26 February 2024 11:42 Gold back at trendline resistance The price rallied over the past two weeks, and has now returned to trendline resistance from the December record high. A close above $2040 would help to suggest a break of trendline resistance, which then opens the way to the early February high around $2064, with horizontal resistance at $2060 just before this. A close back below $2030 would begin to suggest a new lower high has been created and that a push back to the February low at $1984 could now begin. Source: ProRealTime Brent crude heads lower Oil prices fell sharply on Friday, and the new week has begun with fresh losses. Mid-February saw Brent’s rally falter around $83, and this topping out appears now to have given way to a turn lower. The price has broken below trendline support from the December low, though this also happened earlier in February and was followed up by a recovery. Further declines would take the price to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), and then beyond this lies February’s low around $77. Bulls will need a close back above $81.50 to indicate that trendline support has been recovered. Source: ProRealTime Silver losses halted The selling in silver was stemmed on Friday, as the price rebounded after a tough week. The price is pushing higher off its overnight lows, with short-term gains above $23.20 helping to support a cautiously bullish view. The next target becomes the mid-February high at $23.50. A close above this could mark the end of the consolidation in silver that has been ongoing since the beginning of the year. Alternately, a close back below $22.50 would open the way to the 2024 lows at $22. Source: ProRealTime

CAC 40, DAX 40 and Dow trade in record highs but may short-term consolidate Outlook on Nikkei 225, FTSE 100 and DAX 40 ahead of this week’s German and US inflation reports. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 26 February 2024 11:29 The Nikkei 225 consolidates below last week’s record high Last week’s swift ascent in the Nikkei 225 has taken it to a new record high, above that seen 34 years ago, with the psychological 40,000 mark remaining in focus. Increased foreign investment and signs of sustained profit growth among Japanese companies could lead to the 40,000 level being reached as there remains potential for significant additional foreign funds to enter Japan's stock market. However, risks such as China's economic fluctuations, potential yen strengthening, and changes in the Bank of Japan's policy could impact the index's upward trajectory. On Monday a minor retracement lower is taking the Nikkei 225 back towards its 1989 previous record high at 38,957. Below it the mid-February high and the February uptrend line at 38,876 to 38,860 should offer support. While last week’s low at 38,104 underpins, the medium-term bullish uptrend remains intact. Source: ProRealTime FTSE 100 awaits MPC member speeches The FTSE 100’s recovery from last week’s 7,623 low amid strong earnings by the likes of Anglo American and Rolls-Royce and has so far taken it to 7,717 on Friday, a level from which it is currently slipping back. It’ll need to be exceeded for last Tuesday’s 7,750 six-week high to be back in focus. Further up lurks the 7,769 December peak. Minor support below Monday’s 7,689 low sits at Friday’s 7,675 low ahead of the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and Wednesday’s low at 7,634 to 7,623. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 stalls slightly below Thursday’s record high The DAX 40 index’s swift rally to a new record high close to the 17,500 mark on Thursday is taking a breather as investors look forward to German inflation data out on Thursday. Minor support below Friday’s 17,356 low is only seen around the mid-February 17,197 high. Above the current record high at 17,448 lies the 18,000 region. Source: ProRealTime

Technical overview remains bullish after a week of notable gains, and CoT speculators have reduced their majority buy bias. Source: Bloomberg Federal Reserve Personal consumption expenditures price index Inflation Market trend GDP Speculation Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai Publication date: Monday 26 February 2024 07:31 Record highs, cautious Fed members, and rate cut likelihoods Last Friday, the United States offered little new information, with market participants still processing the significant gains made by large-cap equity indices on Thursday, which reached record highs, amidst numerous central bank officials delivering speeches in the interim. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) Waller reiterated his viewpoint that "there is no rush to begin cutting interest rates to normalize monetary policy," expressing a desire for "at least another couple more months of inflation data" to decide "whether January was a speed bump or a pothole." Cook emphasized the need for "greater confidence that inflation is converging to 2% before beginning to cut the policy rate," Jefferson anticipated rate cuts later in the year, and Harker cautioned against expecting rate cuts "right now and right away." Regarding Treasury yields, they ended the week mostly unchanged, with a slight decrease at the longer end, thus lowering them in real terms. Market predictions, notably the CME's FedWatch, almost fully anticipate the Fed maintaining its current rates in March, strongly suggesting no change in May, and, by a majority, forecasting a cut in June. Week ahead: pricing, PMIs, and a potential partial government shutdown In the coming week, a focus will be on US housing data, beginning with the release of new home sales for January later today, which have been near pre-pandemic averages. Tomorrow, housing price data for December from both the FHFA and S&P/CS will be released, with recent figures showing positive trends. Weekly mortgage applications, following last week's decline, will be reported on Wednesday, and pending home sales for the first month of this year will be released on Thursday, following notable growth in its previous report. However, these housing market indicators, whether individually or collectively, are not expected to have as significant an impact as the pricing data due this Thursday with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. January's expectations include a headline year-on-year increase of 2.4%, down from 2.6% previously, with the core rate expected to decrease from 2.9% to 2.8%. Month-on-month growth rates of 0.3% and 0.4% are anticipated, respectively. Manufacturing PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Index) are scheduled for Friday, with both the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global releasing their findings. However, the former has not yet emerged from contraction, unlike the latter, which showed improvement to 51.5 in its preliminary reading last Thursday. Preliminary GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for the last quarter of the previous year will be released on Wednesday, although there is currently no significant concern over U.S. growth (with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for this quarter at a healthy 2.9%). In terms of consumer sentiment, the Conference Board's (CB) reading will be available tomorrow, while the revised figures from the University of Michigan (UoM) will be released on Friday. We should also not overlook the deadline for the partial government shutdown this Friday. Dow technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels We got a cross and close above its previous weekly 1st Resistance level, plenty on offer for conformist buy-breakout strategies, but for relatively limited profit-taking in terms of time, while contrarian sell-after-reversals got stopped out, with the key technical indicators remaining bullish on the weekly time frame and a 'bull average' technical overview. It's an identical overview for the daily time frame, where late last week price easily breached Thursday's 1st and 2nd levels, thereafter breaching 39K and remaining above it by the close. Source: IG IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Dow CoT speculators’ heavy buy bias has dropped a few notches to 69% and is still considered heavy buy territory (longs -935 lots, shorts +2,668), and there’s still a decent margin for longs initiated at lower prices to unwind with a profit. IG clients are extreme sell but down a notch to 79% week-on-week, with the caution shorting into price gains persisting. Source: IG Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of the start of this week for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the start of last week. **CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

AUD/USD marks three weeks of gains as it eyes RBA's stance and key CPI data, navigating seller resistance. Source: Bloomberg Forex AUD/USD Consumer price index United States dollar Inflation Australian dollar Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 26 February 2024 06:34 The AUD/USD has notched up three consecutive weeks of gains, but this upward trend comes with a twist. Every time the pair ventured above the .6562 mark, aligning with the 200-day moving average, sellers swiftly emerged. The trajectory of the AUD/USD's future gains hinges on a trio of factors: 1. sustained positive risk sentiment, 2. the RBA's unwavering hawkish stance, and 3. a fresh impetus for the US dollar's climb, which has been on the sidelines lately despite a recalibration of expectations for Fed rate cuts in the US rates market. This week's Australian inflation update, the January Monthly CPI indicator, is set to play a pivotal role in clarifying the RBA's position. What's on the radar for this week's Monthly CPI indicator (Wednesday, February 28th at 11:30am): The latest data, unveiled in late January, indicates a cooling in Australia's inflation both quarterly and monthly. A quick recap reveals: The headline inflation edged up by 0.6% in Q4, charting an annual pace of 4.1% YoY, undershooting the 4.3% forecast. The RBA's preferred inflation gauge, the trimmed mean, ascended by 0.8% QoQ, bringing the annual Trimmed Mean down to 4.2% YoY from Q3's 5.2%. December's Monthly CPI indicator showed a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, slightly below the 3.7% anticipated. Excluding volatile items, December's Monthly CPI indicator advanced by 4.2%, decelerating from November's 4.8%. For January, expectations are set for the Monthly CPI to tick up to 3.5% YoY, mainly attributed to base effects. Despite this, the anticipated easing in inflation and a slackening labour market could pave the way for the RBA to shed its tightening bias in the months ahead. This shift is anticipated to precede a sequence of rate reductions, starting with a 25 basis points (bp) cut in August followed by another in November Monthly CPI indicator chart Source: RBA AUD/USD technical analysis In recent weeks, the AUD/USD has stabilised and reclaimed some ground it lost during its sell-down from the December .6871 high. The AUD/USD now needs to see a sustained move above the 200-day moving average at .6562 and above the mid-January .6625 high to warn that a more robust recovery is underway. Aware that the longer it spends lingering under the 200-day moving average, the more chance there is of a retest of the mid-February .6442 low with scope towards weekly support near .6310. AUD/USD daily Chart Source: TradingView Source:TradingView. The figures stated are as of 26 February 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Upcoming PCE data could sway the US dollar. Explore its impact on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD through our technical analysis. Source: Bloomberg Forex United States dollar Technical analysis Euro Personal consumption expenditures price index Japanese yen Written by: Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York Publication date: Monday 26 February 2024 05:05 Wall Street will be on edge this week ahead of a high-impact event on the US calendar on Friday: the release of core PCE data, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. This report is likely to amplify volatility and may alter sentiment, so traders should prepare for the possibility of wild price swings in order to better respond to sudden changes in market conditions. January's core PCE is forecast to have increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month, resulting in a slight decline in the yearly reading from 2.9% to 2.7% - a minor yet encouraging directional adjustment. However, traders should not be caught off guard if official results surprise to the upside, mirroring the trends and patterns seen in the CPI and PPI surveys a couple of weeks ago. Rate hike expectations and the dollar's 2024 rebound: navigating the shift in monetary policy Sticky price pressures, coupled with robust job growth and reaccelerating wages, may prompt the FOMC to delay the start of its easing cycle until the second half of the year, and to deliver fewer cuts than anticipated. This scenario could shift interest rate expectations towards a more hawkish direction compared to their present outlook. Higher interest rates for longer may keep US Treasury yields tilted upwards in the near term, establishing a fertile ground for the US dollar to build upon its 2024 recovery. With the greenback displaying a constructive bias, the euro, pound and, to a lesser extent, the Japanese yen may encounter challenges transitioning into March. EUR/USD technical analysis EUR/USD rebounded this past week, but failed to decisively recapture its 200-day simple moving average at 1.0825. It's imperative to closely track this indicator in the coming days, as a push above it may trigger a rally towards 1.0890. On further strength, attention will turn to 1.0950. Alternatively, if the pair gets rejected downwards from its current position and heads lower, technical support fist appears at 1.0725, followed by 1.0700. Beyond this threshold, additional weakness could prompt a retracement towards 1.0650. GBP/USD technical analysis GBP/USD advanced during the week but failed to take out its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2680. Surpassing this technical obstacle could be a tough task for bulls, though a breakout might usher in a move towards trendline resistance at 1.2725. Above this barrier, all eyes will be on 1.2830. In the scenario of sellers reasserting control and kickstarting a pullback, the first potential support area arises around the 1.2600 handle. Further losses past this juncture could pave the way for a decline towards trendline support and the 200-day simple moving average, located at 1.2570. USD/JPY technical analysis USD/JPY made further progress to the upside this week, coming within striking distance from breaching resistance at 150.85. Traders need to monitor this technical barrier carefully, as a successful breakout could energize buying momentum, potentially fueling a rally towards last year’s highs near 152.00. On the flip side, if sellers unexpectedly reclaim dominance and spark a bearish reversal, the first technical floor to watch lies at 149.70 and 148.90 subsequently. Sustained losses beyond these key support levels could trigger a retreat towards the 100-day simple moving average in the vicinity of 147.50. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Consumer staples stocks are popular defensive portfolio investments, with a unique set of advantages and drawbacks. These five are the largest on the FTSE 100. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Reckitt Diageo Haleon Consumer Written by: Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London Consumer staples stocks are shares in companies which specialize in selling daily essentials — food and drink, hygiene and household products, cosmetics, alcohol and tobacco. These stocks are classified as ‘defensive’ — consumers will continue to buy them regardless of the state of the economy — meaning the companies benefit from inelasticity of demand. These are non-cyclical businesses, which means sales, revenue and at least some profit is generally expected. However, consumer staples stocks are unlikely to make headlines for capital growth or explosive revenue increases. Instead, they offer low price volatility, dividends, and defensive positioning within a wider portfolio. And a key trade-off is that consumer staples companies can be better able to pass on inflation-matching cost increases to customers — this is a huge advantage in inflationary periods which is becoming more apparent. Given the perceived lower risk, lower return, consumer staples stocks are often popular with investors closer to retirement, or else investors starting to venture outside the diversification offered by ETFs. Perhaps a core advantage that is often ignored is the heritage and branding power of most larger consumer staples companies. Many have been in operation for decades or more due to the defensive nature of the sector, and this can have a positive ongoing effect on investment attractiveness. Of course, past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Top consumer staples stocks to watch The following five shares are the largest FTSE 100 consumer staples stocks by market capitalisaiton. There is an element of subjectivity to inclusion as there is no standardised ‘consumer staples’ definition. Unilever Diageo British Amercan Tobacco Reckitt Benckiser Haleon Unilever Unilever is a very well-known transnational consumer staples business which produces a dizzying array of products including food, drinks, cleaning agents, beauty and personal care products. Some of its well-known brands include Dove, Ben & Jerry’s, Cornetto, Domestos and Hellmann's. Full-year 2023 results saw underlying sales growth at the FTSE 100 company rise by 7% — with a turnover of €59.56 billion. Encouragingly, the business’s underlying operating margin rose by 60bps to 16.7%. CEO Hein Schumacher argues that ‘2023 Full Year results show an improving financial performance, with the return to volume growth and margins rebuilding. We are moving with speed and urgency to transform Unilever into a consistently higher performing business.’ Unilever shares have remained almost flat over the past five years, with some investors arguing it has underperformed the wider market. However, it is in the midst of a turnaround plan; Schumacher took the reins in July 2023 noting that it is not ‘reaching its potential’ and that productivity and returns have ‘under-delivered.’ Diageo While some consider alcohol not to be a consumer staple, it is a consumer product that people tend to buy regardless of the wider economic climate. Diageo is one of the largest alcoholic drinks manufacturers in the world, and controls a premium brand portfolio covering Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff, Baileys, Captain Morgan, Tanqueray and Gordon's. In recent interim results, CEO Debra Crew did note that ‘the first half of fiscal 24 was challenging for Diageo and our sector, particularly as we lapped strong growth in the prior year…looking ahead to the second half of fiscal 24, despite continued global economic volatility, we expect to deliver improvement in organic net sales and organic operating profit growth at the group level.’ For context, an unfavourable foreign exchange market and the declines in Latin America and the Caribbean saw net sales decline by 1.4% to $11 billion. Accordingly, operating profit fell by 11.1% to $3.3 billion — though this fall was just $205 million when excluding the LAC region. In more bad news, the stock has fallen to its lowest level in four years as news of China’s ‘anti-dumping’ investigation into brandy from the EU heats up. British American Tobacco Debate it if you must, but tobacco is also commonly thought of as a consumer staple. Smokers and vapers typically buy their favourite product — with the addictive component of nicotine an ethical question for individual investors to consider. British American Tobacco is one of the world’s biggest tobacco companies, with a significant brand portfolio of famous names. However, the business is dealing with changing consumer preferences and government intervention. It wrote off circa £25 billion in value of its US-based cigarette portfolio in December 2023 — while the UK is planning to implement a ban on disposable vapes soon. For context, revenue fell by 1.3% in full-year results (though rose by 3.1% at constant rates). ‘New category’ revenue grew by 21% — and revenue from non-combustibles now makes up 16.5% of the group’s overall revenue. Best of all, new categories achieved profitability in 2023 after years of losses and two years ahead of target. But longer-term, combustibles revenue is expected to continue to fall, while some investors think replacing this revenue with vaping may be harder than the company expects. CEO Tadeu Marocco contends that the ‘refined strategy commits us to 'Building a Smokeless World', a predominantly smokeless business, with 50% of our revenue from Non-Combustibles by 2035.’ Reckitt Benckiser Like Unilever, Reckitt Benckiser has been effectively flat over the past five years. The company owns many famous brand names, including Dettol, Strepsils, Veet, Gaviscon, Calgon and Air Wick. It’s widely assumed that consumers are prepared to pay a price premium for cleaning products and medications compared to other categories. In Q3 results, Reckitt saw like-for-like net revenue growth rise by 3.4%, led by strong a broad-based growth of 6.7% across its hygiene and health segments. While overall volume declined by 4.1% year-over-year, the company remains the market leader in the US nutrition business — and with its recent strategic update, the company expects to target sustained mid-single digit life-for-like sales growth in the medium term. In further good news, the company has initiated a £1 billion share buyback programme. CEO Kris Licht notes that ‘we are firmly on track to deliver our full year targets, despite some tough prior year comparatives that we continue to face in our US Nutrition business and across our OTC portfolio in the fourth quarter.’ Haleon Like Reckitt Benckiser, Haleon is a consumer healthcare multinational which controls its own famous brand portfolio — including Sensodyne, Panadol and Centrum vitamins. And it’s widely regarded as one of the largest over-the-counter medicines operators in the world. Spun off from GSK, the company could remain a stalwart of the FTSE 100 for decades to come. In Q3 2023 results, Haleon saw 5% organic revenue growth, while adjusted operating profit rose by 8.8% at constant currency rates. And the company saw an adjusted operating profit margin of 24.6%. CEO Brian McNamara enthuses that the results ‘demonstrate continued strong momentum across the business. Despite challenging markets, we have delivered another quarter of strong organic growth…our FY guidance remains unchanged and we expect to deliver strong growth in both organic revenue and adjusted operating profit constant currency.’ This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Asian-Pacific stocks traded mostly flat to start the week, with light weekend newsflow focused on geopolitics. In Europe, equity futures point to a lower open after gains on Friday. The calendar this week focuses on inflation , with Japan kicking off the world tour of price data today. This is followed up by US PCE data on Wednesday, German CPI on Thursday and then the eurozone reading on Friday. While today begins quietly on the earnings front, UK earnings crowd the rest of the week, taking over from the US as reporting season there enters its final weeks.

Prepare for market shifts with the upcoming US core PCE data release. Understand its effects on FX markets, the US dollar, and major pairs through our in-depth analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and gold. Source: Bloomberg Forex Commodities United States dollar Gold EUR/USD GBP/USD Written by: Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York Publication date: Friday 23 February 2024 06:50 Market participants will be on tenterhooks in the coming days ahead of a high-impact item on the US calendar next week: the release of core PCE data – the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge. This crucial event on the agenda is likely to stir volatility within the FX space, so the retail crowd needs to be vigilant and ready for unpredictable price swings. In terms of consensus estimates, core PCE is projected to have risen by 0.4% in January, bringing the annual rate down to 2.7% from 2.9% previously, a small but welcome step in the right direction. Traders, however, shouldn't be taken aback if the numbers surprise to the upside, echoing the patterns and trends seen in last week's CPI and PPI reports for the same period. Interest rates and inflation: steering the course of the US dollar and commodities Sticky price pressures in the economy, together with solid job creation and hot wage growth, could compel the Fed to delay the start of its easing cycle to the second half of the year, resulting in only modest adjustments once the process gets underway. Such a scenario could push interest rate expectations in a more hawkish direction compared to their current status. Higher interest rates for longer could mean upward pressure on US Treasury yields over the coming weeks – an outcome poised to benefit the US dollar and reinforce its bullish momentum seen in 2024. With the greenback biased to the upside, pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD will face difficulties in maintaining positive performance in the short term. Gold prices could also struggle. Fundamentals aside now, the subsequent section of this article will revolve around examining the technical outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and gold prices. Here, we'll explore critical price thresholds that traders need to keep on their radar to prepare potential strategies in the upcoming sessions. EUR/USD technical analysis EUR/USD has regained lost ground this week but has yet to fully recover its 200-day simple moving average, currently at 1.0830. Traders should keep a close eye on this indicator in the coming days, bearing in mind that a push above it could give way to a rally towards 1.0890 and possibly even 1.0950. On the flip side, if prices get rejected to the downside from current levels and begin a rapid descent, technical support emerges at 1.0725. followed by 1.0700. From this point onwards, additional weakness may prompt market focus to shift towards 1.0650. EUR/USD daily chart Source: TradingView GBP/USD technical analysis GBP/USD consolidated to the upside on Thursday but fell short of clearing its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2680. Bulls may find it challenging to surpass this technical hurdle; however, a breakout could result in a move toward trendline resistance at 1.2725. Conversely, if sellers stage a comeback and trigger a market reversal, the first line of defense against a bearish attack lies around the 1.2600 mark. Additional losses beyond this point may create the right conditions for a slide toward trendline support and the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2560. GBP/USD daily chart Source: TradingView Gold price technical analysis Gold rose modestly on Thursday but hit a roadblock around $2,030, a key resistance zone where a downtrend line aligns with the 50-day simple moving average. Sellers need to defend this area vigorously to prevent bulls from reasserting dominance; failure to do so could result in a rally toward $2,065. On the other hand, if sentiment reverses in favor of sellers and prices begin to retreat, support can be identified at $2,005, positioned near the 100-day simple moving average. Further downside pressure may then bring $1,990 into focus, followed by $1,995. Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Explore the potential rebound of the Japanese yen in 2024 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) considers rate hikes. Analysing the yen against USD, EUR, and GBP, we uncover the implications of BoJ's policy changes. Source: Bloomberg Forex Bank of Japan Japanese yen Euro USD/JPY EUR/JPY Written by: Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York Publication date: Friday 23 February 2024 07:30 The Japanese yen has weakened significantly against its top peers in 2024, owing to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish stance. While major central banks globally have aggressively raised rates over the past two years to combat inflation, the BoJ has remained steadfast, maintaining highly accommodative policy settings. However, the era of significantly relaxed monetary policy in Japan may be nearing an end, potentially as early as the early months of the second quarter. This shift could mark the beginning of a sustained upswing for the yen, suggesting the worst may be behind us. Wage negotiations spark hope: a turning point for Japan's monetary policy If annual compensation negotiations between major Japanese firms and unions, expected to conclude around mid-March, result in substantial pay increases above 4.0%, policymakers might gain the confidence needed in the sustainability of wage growth to finally move away from negative interest rates. We will learn more about the BoJ's monetary policy outlook in the coming weeks, but the indicators seem to be aligning for a rate hike in late March or, more likely, April. As markets begin to anticipate this scenario, the yen may gradually start to rally. USD/JPY technical analysis USD/JPY climbed on Thursday, approaching resistance at 150.85. If gains pick up pace in the coming days and break above the 151.00 handle, buyers may get emboldened to initiate a bullish assault on last year’s high near 152.00. On the flip side, if sellers return and drive the exchange rate lower, technical support appears around 149.70, followed by 148.90. Further losses from this point onward may usher in a pullback towards 147.50 in the near term. USD/JPY daily chart Source: TradingView EUR/JPY technical analysis EUR/JPY extended its advance on Thursday, steadily approaching last year’s peak around the 164.00 handle. Bears need to strongly defend this ceiling; failure to do so might lead to an upward push toward trendline resistance at 165.00. In case of a bearish reversal, support is anticipated at 161.50 and 160.70 thereafter. On further weakness, all eyes will be on the 100-day simple moving average located near 159.60. Below this level, the 50-day simple moving average could act as the next shield against additional losses. EUR/JPY daily chart Source: TradingView GBP/JPY technical analysis GBP/JPY rallied on Thursday, hitting a fresh multi-year high above 190.50. With bullish momentum intact, additional upside potential is likely in the short term, with the next resistance threshold at 192.50, followed by 196.00, marking the highs of 2015. Conversely, should the upward momentum wane, resulting in a market retracement, support is seen around the psychological 190.00 level, and subsequently at 188.50. Further down, bears are likely to set their sights on the 50-day simple moving average in the vicinity of 185.50. GBP/JPY daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Nikkei 225, several US and european equity indices are trading in new record highs following Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings amid global risk on sentiment. China's new home prices dropping the most in ten months and UK consumer confidence weakening in February have done little to dampen the buoyant mood but perhaps the German IFO business climate index may do so, at least in the short-term. The US dollar paused its recent spell of depreciation as US yields rallied to a near three-month high, initial jobless claims in the week ending February 17 fell to a five-week low and as existing homes sales rebounded to a five-month high, reinforcing the view of a soft landing in the USA. The euro remained stable as European Central Bank officials agreed that it was too early to discuss interest rate cuts, despite indications of cooling inflationary pressures across the Eurozone, as shown in the minutes from the most recent ECB meeting.