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FTSE 100, DAX 40 side-lined while S&P 500 trades in record highs Outlook on FTSE 100, CAC 40 and S&P 500 as major company earnings by the ‘magnificent seven’ are out of the way. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 05 February 2024 12:30 FTSE 100 continues to be side-lined The FTSE 100 is stuck in its 7,690 to 7,600 sideways trading range, the break out of which may well determine the next minor trend. A fall through last week’s 7,600 low would lead to the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,592 being eyed, below which meanders the 200-day SMA at 7,550. Minor resistance can be found at last Tuesday’s 7,641 low above which lies last week’s high at 7,690. A rise above 7,690 and the 11 January high at 7,694 would likely target the mid-October high at 7,702. Further up the July and September highs can be seen at 7,723 to 7,747. As long as last week’s low at 7,600 underpins, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 dips but tries to regain lost ground The DAX 40 index dipped to its January-to-February uptrend line at 16,856 in overnight trading before recovering some lost ground and heading back up to its Monday 16,943 high. Above it beckon the mid-December and early February record highs at 17,003 to 17,020. Above 17,020 lies the 17,100 mark which may be reached next. This high will be eyed provided no bearish reversal to below last Thursday’s low at 16,782 is seen. Support above that low sits at Friday’s 16,889 low. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 trades in new record highs The S&P 500 continues to steam ahead and is fast approaching its psychological 5,000 mark around which it is expected to at least short-term lose upside momentum. Slips should find support around last Monday and Tuesday’s 4,931 high ahead of Friday’s 4,905 low. Slightly further down sits solid support between Tuesday’s 4,899 low and the 4,903 late January high. Source: ProRealTime

Friday's blowout non-farm payrolls reading has seen the chances of a March rate cut by the Fed diminish yet further. The payroll report blew past expectations, restating the strength of the US economy. An interview with Powell, broadcast last night, revealed that the Fed chief still expected 75bps of cuts this year, but reiterated that the committee was in no rush to cut rates would wait for more data before making a move. Stocks in Asia were muted - while the Nikkei 225 rose, Chinese markets were under pressure once again, as was the ASX 200. The dollar continues to revive, though US indices show little sign of heading substantially lower; indeed, the S&P 500 came within touching distance of 5000 on Friday. After the heavyweight data and earnings of last week, things cool down slightly, though today's US ISM report will be worth watching to see if it confirms the strong outlook for US jobs.

Technical overview remains bullish, and in sentiment CoT speculators upping their heavy buy bias. Source: Bloomberg Shares Federal Reserve Market trend Unemployment Big Tech Technical analysis Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai Publication date: Monday 05 February 2024 07:39 Strong headline labor data Plenty to digest last Friday out of the US: (1) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for the month of January showed growth of 353K, smashing the roughly 180K estimates with higher revisions for the two months that preceded it; (2) the unemployment rate held at 3.7% instead of rising, but household survey divergence again as it showed a drop of 31K, and the U6 was a notch higher at 7.2%; (3) the labor force participation rate held at 62.5%; (4) the employment-population ratio was a notch higher at 60.2%; and (5) wage growth month-on-month (m/m) was a much hotter 0.6%, taking it higher year-on-year (y/y) to 4.5%, but came with weakness in overall hours worked. UoM's figures generally improved, and the reaction to Big Tech’s earnings was net positive There were also revised figures out of UoM (University of Michigan), with consumer sentiment improving to 79 and, more importantly, their inflation expectations holding for the 12-month at 2.9%, even if a notch higher for the five-year to the same level. And more from Big Tech in terms of earnings last Thursday: (1) Apple’s figures beat but sales in China were disappointing, and potentially weaker iPhone sales this quarter resulted in its share price declining; (2) Amazon saw decent gains after its earnings and revenue beat, which came with strong guidance for the current quarter; and (3) Meta was the clear outperformer, with its share price closing over 20% higher after managing to beat estimates, announcing a $50bn share buyback program, and its first-ever dividend payment. Key stock indices enjoyed another positive weekly finish, while over in the bond market, we saw mixed performance for Treasury yields that finished lower on the further end (even after Friday’s jump) while the more policy-sensitive closed higher, and market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) with far more clarity on a hold this March. Week ahead: Services PMIs, auctions, Fed member speak, and more earnings As for the week ahead, it’s a relatively quiet one when looking at the data, and where it’ll be busier for some early on. We’ll get services PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Index) later today out of the US from both S&P Global and ISM (Institute for Supply Management), both expected to remain in expansionary territory. There’s also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) loan officer survey for the fourth quarter of last year to see how bank lending and conditions have been faring. A few auctions over the next three days with the 3-year tomorrow, 10-year on Wednesday, and 30-year on Thursday, and Fed member speak on all three days, earlier its chairman Powell in an interview on reducing “interest rates carefully” with a strong economy. We’ve got the weekly items like inventory data, mortgage applications, and claims, but that aside and on the earnings front in the US, there are a few notable ones including McDonald’s today, Eli Lilly and Uber tomorrow, Disney on Wednesday, ConocoPhillips on Thursday, and PepsiCo on Friday. Dow technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels Its previous weekly 1st resistance level might have initially held, favoring contrarian sell-after-reversals, but the moves after going past it and stopping them out give conformist buy-breakouts the eventual win. The higher close keeps key technical indicators green, and so too does its overview as bullish in both weekly and daily time frames. Source: IG IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Dow IG clients remain in extreme sell territory and have raised that bias to start the week off at 81%. Although is lower than the more extreme levels seen prior, there will likely be further caution on shorts getting in until a more pronounced pullback in price is witnessed. CoT speculators are an opposite majority buy and have raised their heavy long bias again, this time to 73% (longs 6,790 lots, shorts 21), momentum likely raising it while shorts generally holding. Source: IG Dow chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of the start of this week for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the start of last week. **CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients

With thousands of ETFs to explore, here are five of the best to watch from around the world. These ETFs are chosen for their significant popularity among investors and constant media coverage. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Commodities ETF Investment S&P 500 Written by: Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London What's on this page? Top Global ETFs to watch How to trade or invest in top global ETFs with us Investing using Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) is an increasingly common strategy, for a variety of reasons. ETFs allow you to buy into a ‘basket of securities’ based on a specific sector or investing approach, without having to buy the assets individually. This approach gives investors increased exposure to a diversified range of investments in a single trade, with the ability to manage risk by trading futures just like an individual stock. Further, ETFs boast the trading liquidity of equity unlike the rigidity of a mutual fund. Other than the convenience, passive ETFs usually offer low expense ratios and lower broker commissions than buying the constituent assets individually. Naturally, ETFs can contain all sorts of investments, including stocks, commodities, and bonds — sourced from all over the world. With inflation falling amid analyst hopes that interest rates will start to tumble in H2 2024, investors are nevertheless seeking the diversification on offer in some of the best global ETFs to protect their portfolios in case of a hard landing. It’s worth noting that an ETF will only ever perform as well as its underlying constituents. We do offer an ETF screener that can help to inform your investing decisions — but these five could be some of the best global ETFs to watch as a starting point. Top global ETFs to watch The following five ETFs have been chosen for their widespread popularity among investors. They are not necessarily the top performing ETFs but are often found in portfolios. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF iShares Core S&P 500 ETF Invesco Physical Gold ETC Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF iShares UK Dividend UCITS ETF Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF The Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF is arguably the most ‘global’ ETF on the market today, as well as being one of the most popular ETFs in the world. It aims to track the performance of the FTSE All-World index, made up of large and mid-sized companies across both developed and emerging markets. This index provides exposure to almost 4,000 companies from across 50 countries at a low annual fee, and arguably offers possibly the most diversified portfolio of stocks possible. On the other hand, it does have a geographical bias, with 60% of companies in the ETF based in the US. And because of the relative size of the US tech giants, the FTSE All-World’s biggest sector is usually technology — which can be volatile. And over the longer term the index is usually beaten by the S&P 500. But the perceived safety of diversification can be attractive — investors get exposure to some emerging markets, the capital gains of the AI-fuelled US tech bubble, and a modicum of protection from single country downturns. iShares Core S&P 500 ETF There are many S&P 500 tracker ETFs on offer, but the iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF is one of the most popular among UK investors. This passive ETF attempts to, as closely as possible, follow the performance of the S&P 500 index, which tracks the performance of the largest 500 companies listed in the United States bymarket capitalisation. This includes market titans such as Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Amazon, and IBM — but also smaller mid-sized companies that could grow into the blue chips of tomorrow. The ETF has an expense ratio of just 0.03%, and the S&500 has delivered average annual returns of 10.15% since 1957. This makes the tracker an exceptionally popular ETF for SIPP holders looking to benefit from long-term capital gains growth — and though past performance is no guarantee of future success, S&P 500 index investing is often considered to be a lower-risk investing strategy. Indeed, legendary investor Warren Buffett has often argued the index is the only investment the average person needs for retirement savings — though others disagree. It’s worth noting that that this particular ETF has lower liquidity than others on the market with higher expense fees, so is better suited to long-term investors. Invesco Physical Gold ETC The Invesco Physical Gold ETC seeks to replicate the performance of the London Gold Market Fixing Ltd PM Fix Price/USD, with the fund backed one-to-one with gold bullion held by JP Morgan Chase in London bank vaults. Gold remains at circa $2,000/oz levels, as the traditional real asset inflation-hedge, which preserves purchasing power and acts as a protective asset in times of severe market stress, once again performs admirably in this inflationary environment. For context, central banks bought a record 1,136 tons of the precious metal in 2022 and continued to buy record amounts in 2023. And with the US dollar likely to fall in value should rates start to come down, gold could on to another record high in 2024. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF tracks the FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index — which, as the name suggests, tracks the performance of equities issued by companies in emerging markets. This includes China, Brazil, Taiwan, and South Africa. Vanguard notes that the index has ‘high potential for growth, but also high risk; share value may swing up and down more than that of stock funds that invest in developed countries.’ Its top three holdings include the market leading Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, alongside Chinese platform stock Tencent, and e-commerce titan Alibaba. The ETF does have a low expense fee at 0.08%, but can be regarded as much higher risk than others on this list. iShares UK Dividend UCITS ETF The iShares UK Dividend UCITS ETF focuses on some of the best London-listed companies — those which boast the highest dividend yields. Instead of investing in all the companies on the FTSE 100 or FTSE 250 (a common approach), it instead offers diversified exposure to the top 50 UK companies within the FTSE 350 with the highest dividend yield (excluding investment trusts). HSBC, Rio Tinto, and Legal & General are its top holdings, alongside other miners, banks, and several defensive stocks with a reliable history of dividend pay-outs. Of course, there are risks — dividends are not guaranteed and cyclical companies like Rio Tinto or Persimmon can see their dividend yields fall in poor years. How to invest and trade in the best global ETFs with us You can choose to either invest in an ETF, or to trade it. When you invest, you own the underlying shares in the ETF outright and are entitled to any dividends that are paid; you also make a profit if the ETF price appreciates. With us, you can buy ETFs using a share dealing account. Learn about the difference between trading and investing. Trading an ETF enables you to speculate on the future share price’s movement of an ETF – whether you believe it will fall (in which case you’d go short) or rise (in which case you’d go long). You would not own the underlying ETF and won’t receive any dividends, but you can use leverage. Leverage enables you to open a larger position with a small deposit (called a margin), which can help you stretch your capital a little further. However, total profits and losses could easily exceed your margin amount, as they are calculated on total position size, so you’re advised to trade carefully. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

A blowout US jobs report continues to keep rate cut bets in check, with robust labour conditions validating Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent discussion to keep rates high for slightly longer. Source: Bloomberg Forex Indices Federal Reserve United States United States dollar China Written by: Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore Publication date: Monday 05 February 2024 04:50 Market Recap A blowout US jobs report last Friday continues to keep rate cut bets in check, with robust labour conditions validating Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s recent discussion to keep rates high for slightly longer. The US job market has shown renewed signs of acceleration, with a recent gain of 353,000 jobs in January almost double the 180,000 consensus, while earlier numbers were revised higher as well. Along with a 0.6% month-on-month gain in hourly wages (versus 0.3% consensus), this will likely call for more patience in the unwinding of tight Fed policies and as the Fed Chair said, policymakers will likely wait beyond March. The paring of dovish bets saw US Treasury yields higher, with the two-year yields up 16 basis point (bp) while the 10-year yields rose 14 bp, providing the catalyst for the US dollar to push to a near one-month high. That failed to dent the mood for equities however. Sentiments continued to bask in optimism around big tech earnings last Friday, but may have to take its cue from Fed’s policy outlook eventually once earnings are behind us. The US dollar has seen some resilience lately, reclaiming its 200-day moving average (MA) last week while its relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart defended the key 50 level to keep the near-term upward bias intact. A further move above the 103.80 level of resistance may set its sight to retest the 105.30 level next. On the downside, the 200-day MA will serve as immediate support to hold for buyers. Source: IG charts Ahead this week, attention will be on the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services purchasing managers index (PMI) out tomorrow, where a slight bounce to 52.5 from previous 50.4 is expected, which should further validate more wait-and-see from US policymakers in terms of rate cut timeline. In addition, the earnings season will see notable releases from McDonalds, Caterpillar, Alibaba, Walt Disney. Asia Open Asian stocks look set for a mixed open, with Nikkei +0.43%, ASX -0.93% and KOSPI -1.60% at the time of writing. Chinese equities continue to struggle, with China regulators’ pledge to stabilise markets over the weekend failing to impress. A lack of details over how they plan to “guide more medium- and long-term funds into the market” may drive some reservations, although the tone suggests that authorities are keeping a closer look at the lacklustre market performance thus far. Today’s economic calendar saw more of the same out of China’s Caixin PMI, in which subdued growth conditions are presented. Its composite PMI edged slightly lower to 52.5 from previous 52.6, while the services component underperformed (52.7 versus 53.0 consensus). The data shows some signs of stabilisation for now, but whether this will lead to a firmer recovery ahead remains to be seen. The China A50 index continues to trade within a descending channel pattern on the daily chart, which keeps the overall downward trend intact. But at least for now, higher lows on its daily RSI could point to abating downside momentum and drive some attempt to stabilise in the near term. The 11,200 level remains a crucial immediate resistance to overcome, where the upper channel trendline stands alongside the lower edge of its daily Ichimoku cloud. Source: IG charts On the watchlist: Near-term head-and-shoulder formation keeps AUD/USD bulls in check Renewed strength in the US dollar on a blowout US job report, alongside a quicker moderation in Australia’s inflation seen last week, has kept the AUD/USD under pressure lately. The pair has reverted to its two-month low, with a breakdown of a near-term head-and-shoulder formation keeping the bias to the downside. To add to the caution, its 100-day and 200-day MAs have given way for now, along with a move back below its Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. Its daily RSI has also failed to reclaim its 50 level after a retest last week. Ahead, the 0.652 level may serve as immediate resistance to overcome, where its 200-day MA coincides with the head-and-shoulder neckline. On the downside, the 0.635 level may be on watch. Source: IG charts Friday: DJIA +0.35%; S&P 500 +1.07%; Nasdaq +1.74%, DAX +0.35%, FTSE -0.09% IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed. The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Please see important Research Disclaimer. Please also note that the information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update.

US stocks reach new highs post-FOMC, fueled by tech earnings and a robust January jobs report. Ahead: economic insights and Fed speeches amid February's market challenges. Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 05 February 2024 05:29 After a brief FOMC-inspired volatility episode mid-week, regular service resumed as US stock markets finished last week at fresh record highs, following strong earnings reports from Mega Tech (Meta +20.32%) and a robust jobs report. For the week, the Dow Jones added 545 points (+1.43%), the S&P 500 added 1.38% and the Nasdaq gained 1.27%. Non-farm payrolls on Friday night surprised to the upside as the US economy added 353k jobs in January, smashing expectations for a gain of 180k. The number was accompanied by cumulative upward revisions over the prior two months of 126k, as the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, slightly below the 3.8% forecast. The US rates market is pricing in just a 20% chance of a rate cut in March, down from a near 80% probability in early January. The US economic calendar is much lighter this week, following a blockbuster couple of weeks. ISM services PMI will be of interest, as well as updated thoughts from Fed speakers, including Bostic, Bowman, and Barkin. US Q4 earnings season continues this week with reports scheduled from companies including McDonalds, Caterpillar, Alibaba, Walt Disney, Uber, Paypal and PepsiCo. As we push deeper into February, it is worth remembering that February is traditionally one of the more challenging months of the year for US equity markets. The slippery slope usually starts in mid-February and extends into the first week of March. S&P 500 Seasonality Index Equityclock.com What is expected from the ISM Services PMI (Tuesday, February 6th at 2 am) Last week, the ISM manufacturing PMI beat expectations, increasing by two points to 49.1, the highest level since 2022. The increase was driven by new orders and production, which entered expansionary territory, and supported the idea of a turn higher in manufacturing after fifteen months in contractionary territory. This week, attention turns to the ISM service PMI (Tuesday, February 6th at 2 am). It is expected to print at 51.7, rebounding from 50.4 in December, representing continued expansion in the services sector. ISM Service PMI chart Source: TradingEconomics S&P 500 technical analysis After a strong rally for the S&P 500 into the end of 2023, we started the new year in a more cautious/neutral frame of mind. We remain of the view that the S&P 500 is in the final stages (Wave V) of its rally from the October 2023 low, and note again, the bearish RSI divergence on the daily chart. Bearish RSI divergence occurs when prices make new highs; but the RSI fails to make a new high. Furthermore, the S&P 500 cash is closing in on the psychologically important 5000 resistance level, which is being reinforced by trendline resistance at 5020, drawn from the December 1st 4100 high, viewed on the chart below. As such, we remain patient, waiting for a pullback to develop in the coming weeks in the order of 5-8%. S&P 500 daily chart Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis After a strong rally for the Nasdaq into the end of 2023, we started the new year in a more cautious/neutral frame of mind. We remain of the view that the Nasdaq is in the final stages (Wave V) of its rally from the October 2023 low. However, a break/ daily close below uptrend support at 17,100, coming from the October lows, is needed to suggest that the Nasdaq has topped and that a deeper retracement towards support at 16,200/16,000 is underway. Until then, allow for the Nasdaq to extend its rally towards 18,000. Nasdaq daily chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 5 February 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Australian dollar drops for a fifth week due to soft inflation data and a hawkish Fed, with the RBA Board meeting in focus for future policy clues. Source: Bloomberg Forex AUD/USD United States dollar Inflation Australian dollar Federal Open Market Committee Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 05 February 2024 06:55 Last week we saw the AUD/USD lock in a fifth consecutive week of falls to finish at .6512 (-0.94%), as the pullback from late December .6871 high deepened. The trigger to last week's sell-off was Wednesday's cooler-than-expected Q4 inflation data in Australia. However, telling blows also came for a more hawkish than expected FOMC meeting with the Fed chair all but ruling out the possibility of a rate cut in March, reinforced by a robust non-farm payrolls report on Friday evening. This week's critical local economic event for the AUD/USD is tomorrow's RBA board meeting, previewed below. What is expected from the RBA board meeting (Tuesday, February 6th at 2.30 pm) At its board meeting in December, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the official cash rate on hold at 4.35%, as widely expected. The RBA retained a tightening bias, using the same wording used in the November statement, watered-down from previous months. "Whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks." A run of cooler data since the December meeting (including last week's retail sales and Q4 inflation data) confirms the RBA's thirteen rate hikes between May 2022 and 23rd November are having the desired effect, and will see the RBA keep rates on hold tomorrow at 4.35%. While it's too early for the RBA to perform a dovish pivot, it will likely replace its tightening bias with more balanced forward guidance. We expect the RBA to cut rates by 25 rate cuts in August before a second cut in November, which will see the cash rate end the year at 3.85%. RBA official cash rate chart AUD/USD technical analysis Recently, we have been looking for the AUD/USD to turn the corner and move higher based on the idea that the pullback from the December .6871 high is part of a correction, rather than a reversal lower. However, today's break below a strong layer of horizontal support at .6520/00, which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October to December rally at .6500c, has cast some doubt over this interpretation. If the AUD/USD does see a sustained break of .6520/00 after tomorrow's RBA board meeting, it would warn that a deeper decline is unfolding towards 6400c, with the scope to weekly trendline support at .6300c. However, if the AUD/USD can regain altitude above .6520/00 over the next 24 hours, we will maintain the view that the decline from the December .6871 high has been a correction, and not part of a reversal lower. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 5 February 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Thanks for sharing @CGE_Trading US Dollar Jumps After NFPs Smash Estimates, Gold Slumps Feb 2, 2024 3:56 PM +02:00 | Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist The latest US NFP release showed the US jobs market in rude health with 353k new jobs created in January compared to forecasts of 180k. Last month’s headline figure was also revised higher to 333k from 216k. The closely watched unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. The US dollar was on the backfoot going into the Jobs Report as recent demand for US Treasuries sent their yields tumbling. Renewed US regional banking fears – shares in New York Community Bancorp slumped by around 40% on Wednesday – drove haven demand, leaving the greenback vulnerable to the downside. NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP DAILY PRICE The US dollar index jumped around 50 ticks after the release hit the screens, reversing all of today’s earlier losses. The greenback remains rangebound, for now, but may soon test the 103.83/85 double highs seen over the last couple of weeks. US rate cut expectations pared post-release with less than a 20% chance now seen of a cut in March – from 35% before the release – while May expectations are now 77% compared to a high 80s earlier. US DOLLAR INDEX DAILY CHART Gold’s recent grind higher was quickly reversed after the 13:30 release. Gold tagged $2,065/oz. yesterday, before paring gains. Gold currently trades at $2,033/oz. and is sitting on a prior level of horizontal support and both the 20- and 5-day simple moving averages. A break below here bring $2,009/oz. back into play. GOLD DAILY PRICE CHART What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?

Analyzing key movements and levels in USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD post-FOMC, offering a snapshot of crucial technical patterns. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares United States dollar USD/CAD AUD/USD NZD/USD Written by: Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York Publication date: Friday 02 February 2024 05:44 USD/CAD technical analysis USD/CAD showed strength after the FOMC decision, but pivoted to the downside on Thursday, nudging lower towards cluster support resting at 1.3390. It is imperative for the bulls to fiercely safeguard this region; any failure to do so could potentially trigger a retracement towards the 1.3300 handle. Conversely, if the pair regains its poise, its first challenge lies in surpassing the 50-day simple moving average. Beyond this point, the focus shifts to trendline resistance and the 200-day simple moving average, situated in the proximity of 1.3480. USD/CAD daily chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD technical analysis A shift towards a risk-off sentiment weighed on AUD/USD during Thursday's trading session, though the pair managed to maintain its position above technical support at 0.6525. For market conditions to be conducive to a bullish reversal, this floor must hold; any breach could trigger a move towards 0.6460. On the flip side, if the mood brightens and the Aussie mounts a comeback, resistance awaits at 0.6600 and then 0.6625. If history is any guide, prices could be rejected from this region on a retest; however, a successful breakout could lead to a move towards 0.6645, followed by 0.6695. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView NZD/USD technical analysis After a subdued performance after the Fed’s monetary policy announcement, NZD/USD rebounded on Thursday, making strides toward trendline resistance at 0.6155. While this technical ceiling is expected to act as a staunch barrier to further advances, a breakout could bring a key Fib level at 0.6180 into play. In contrast, should sellers reemerge and trigger a market retracement, cluster support spanning from 0.6085 to 0.6050 will be the first line of defense against a bearish assault. The bears may struggle to push prices below this region, but if they succeed, a move towards 0.6000 could ensue. NZD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report could sway gold prices, with weak job data potentially boosting and strong data dampening them. This article explores gold's short-term technical outlook. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Commodities Gold United States Gold as an investment Written by: Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York Publication date: Friday 02 February 2024 06:17 The Federal Reserve concluded earlier this week its first meeting of 2024, voting to maintain its policy settings unchanged. The FOMC also abandoned its tightening bias, but indicated it will not rush to cut borrowing costs. Chairman Powell went a step further by acknowledging that officials may not yet be confident enough to remove restriction at their next gathering. Although the possibility of a rate cut in March has diminished, the situation could change again if incoming information shows that activity is starting to roll over. In the grand scheme of things, a weaker economy could prompt policymakers to reconsider their stance; after all, data dependency has been the guiding principle for the central bank recently. Given the present state of events, the January US employment report will assume greater importance and carry added weight. That said, Wall Street projections suggest US employers added 180,000 workers last month, though a softer outcome should come as no surprise following a subdued ADP reading and rising jobless claims for the period in question. Upcoming us jobs report Source: DailyFX If nonfarm payrolls figures prove lackluster and fall well short of expectations, a March rate cut might be back on the table. Under these circumstances, we could observe a sharp retracement in US treasury yields and the US dollar. This scenario is likely to foster a constructive environment for gold in the near term. On the other hand, if NFP numbers beat consensus estimates by a wide margin, there’s potential for further reduction of dovish wagers on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. In this scenario, bond yields and the greenback could accelerate to the upside, weighing on the precious metals complex. In this context, bullion could find itself in a precarious position in February. Gold price technical analysis Gold climbed on Thursday, pushing past the $2,050 barrier and coming within a hair's breadth of breaking $2,065, a key ceiling. With the bulls reasserting control, this resistance could soon be overcome. If that scenario plays out, a rally toward $2,085 is possible. On further strength, the focus will turn to $2,150. Conversely, if buying interest fades and XAU/USD pivots lower, it's vital for traders to watch the $2,050 level for bearish activity. If this area fails to offer support, a drop toward the 50-day simple moving average may unfold, followed by a possible retest of $2,005. Below this floor, all eyes will be on $1,990. Gold price daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Meta's announcement of its first dividend, and a $50 billion share buyback programme, provided a tonic for markets that had been wobbling after the Fed decision. Strong figures from Amazon helped too, helping to offset Apple, which dropped 3% on news of weak China revenue. The ASX 200 and Kospi both rose sharply overnight, with the Nikkei 225 seeing more muted gains. While the Hang Seng was flat, indices in mainland China dropped sharply again. Today's payrolls reading is expected to see job growth slow again, and the unemployment rate to rise. Given the Fed is on watch for any signs of weakening data, today's figures will prove crucial for near-term direction in indices and the US dollar.

Market update: Japanese yen provides reversal hints: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY setups Explore the recent bullish surge in the Japanese yen post-hawkish Bank of Japan meeting. Analyse key charts, including USD/JPY. Gain insights into technical dynamics in this concise overview. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Japanese yen Market sentiment USD/JPY United States dollar Written by: Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg Publication date: Friday 02 February 2024 06:58 Japanese yen adds to bullish lift The Japanese yen appears to be building on some early upward momentum, in the aftermath of a moderately hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting in January. While there was no change to negative interest rate or alterations to the ongoing yield curve control, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda sees the likelihood of reaching the 2% target as “gradually increasing”. A simple, constructed Japanese yen index below shows a steady rise in the value of the yen yesterday, and today thus far. Constructed Japanese yen index- equal weighted average of USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY Source: TradingView The weekly hanging man candle was identified in the weekly US dollar forecast, and it signalled a possible move lower in USD/JPY ahead of this week. Since then, the subsequent red candle (this week thus far) heads lower, testing the 146.56 mark. USD/JPY weekly chart Source: TradingView The daily chart shows the invalidation of a developing bullish pennant as price action heads lower. This presented an example where the longer timeframe view clashed with shorter-term, daily developments highlighting the importance of multi-timeframe analysis and recognition of the longer-term dynamics. The pair currently tests the 146.50 level with 145 not far away. It is then that the 200-day simple moving average appears at long-term channel support. The zone of support may be difficult to breach should price action drop enough to test the area. USD/JPY daily chart Source: TradingView EUR/JPY approaches key pivot point EUR/JPY signalled a slowdown in bullish momentum (evidenced by longer upper wicks) before stalling and heading lower. The pair now tests the 50-day simple moving average but more importantly, heads towards a key pivot point in 157.94. The level has come into play as resistance in June, July and December of last year and provided a zone of resistance throughout September (on a closing basis). The recent selloff has been characterised by two bearish engulfing candles, helping to spur on sellers. The 200 SMA is the next level of support at 156.64 if the pair has enough momentum to breach 157.94. In the event Support process too much to handle once again, 159.76. EUR/JPY daily chart Source: TradingView GBP/JPY ‘double top’ limits further upside potential On the weekly GBP/USD chart, a notable double top appears to be limiting a bullish continuation over the long-term. At 188.80 has proven to be too tough to crack with prices easing before potentially attempting another go. GBP/USD weekly chart Source: TradingView GBP/USD exhibited very little movement considering we heard from the Bank of England, providing its monetary policy update alongside the release of its updated forecasts. At 188.80 it appears a long way away now that the pair had headed lower in recent sessions. At 184.00 flat is the next level of support to keep in mind as it also coincides with the 50-day simple moving average. The MACD supports the continuation of bearish momentum after exhibiting a bearish crossover, and the RSI currently sits in the neutral zone – suggesting that any attempt to arrest this decline would have to be substantial. GBP/USD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Retail traders' sell bias plummets, as fresh shorts get enticed into closing out, while longs initiate anticipating its bullish technical overview will hold. Source: Bloomberg Indices Federal Open Market Committee Nasdaq-100 Nasdaq Market sentiment Technical analysis Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai | Publication date: Thursday 01 February 2024 07:31 FOMC hold, statement change, and Powell pushback The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opted to hold yesterday, as anticipated, but its statement was changed considerably, removing "additional policy firming" but wanting "greater confidence" that inflation is on track to reaching the central bank’s 2% target. In the press conference after, chairman Powell said he "doesn't think it's likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March" as the time to cut interest rates, and wanting "the continuation of the good data we've been seeing." Market pricing (CME's FedWatch) is expecting a hold from their March meeting, and the first cut in the current cycle to start in May, but with a slight majority anticipating getting beneath 4% by the end of this year. Disappointing US data, regional banking scare, and treasury’s announcement US data generally disappointed yesterday, with ADP's non-farm estimate for the month of January a clear miss at 107K instead of 148K, Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) worsening to 46 and it too beneath forecasts, and the weekly mortgage applications out of MBA dropping 7.2%. The employment cost index for the fourth quarter dropped to 0.9% from 1.1%. As for treasury yields, they finished the session lower, and this time in real terms as well. There were a few items to digest, with the general risk-off moves in the financial markets, some attention on regional banking shares in retreat following New York Community Bancorp’s surprise loss and dividend cut, and the US Treasury not expecting further increases in auction sizes in the several quarters after April. There are a few items today, including ISM's (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing prints, and then tomorrow’s (usually) market-moving Non-Farm Payrolls. In terms of notable earnings, expect the focus to be on Apple, Amazon, and Meta releasing their figures today. All three are components of the Nasdaq 100, and their combined weighting is over 20% of the index. Nasdaq technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels All sectors finished yesterday's session in the red, with defensives lightest on losses, a nasty hit for communication, tech second from the bottom also hurting, and consumer discretionary not far off. The trio suffering meant an obvious red finish for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, that was worse than both Dow 30 and the S&P 500. Its price already was beneath its previous 1st support level early yesterday (after Alphabet and AMD’s releases), and thereafter a move to its previous 2nd support favoring contrarian sell-breakouts. Overall, its technical overview remains ‘bull average’ on both daily and weekly time frames, but that doesn’t mean a lack of caution for conformist buys off key support levels, and more so with what’s in store over the next two days on the fundamental front. Source: IG IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Nasdaq As for sentiment, retail traders have fallen out of heavy sell territory from 67% yesterday to 62% as of this morning, as fresh shorts get further enticed into closing out and longs initiate. CoT speculators as of last Friday’s report are still majority to the buy side, at an exact opposite long 62%. Source: IG Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day. **CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Fed kept interest rates steady in its latest meeting, hinting at a cautious future stance. The upcoming US jobs report gains significant importance, potentially impacting the US dollar, gold prices, and key currency pairs. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Commodities United States dollar Market trend Technical analysis Written by: Diego Colman | Market Analyst, New York | Publication date: Thursday 01 February 2024 04:56 The Federal Reserve on Wednesday concluded its first monetary policy meeting of the year, voting to maintain borrowing costs unchanged at their present 5.25% to 5.50% range, in a decision widely expected by market participants. The FOMC also dropped its tightening bias, but signaled that it is not yet ready to ease its stance imminently. Powell went further during his post-meeting press conference, admitting that policymakers may not be confident enough to slash the cost of money at their next gathering. With the likelihood of a March cut appearing slim at the moment, the US dollar may have room to rebound in the near term, but the recovery thesis depends on incoming information showing that the economy continues to perform well. In the absence of good data, a March move is still a possibility. Source: CME Group In the current context, the December US nonfarm payrolls report will take on added significance. In terms of estimates, US employers are forecast to have added 180,000 jobs last month, though the weakness in the ADP and several PMI surveys for the same period argue for a softer print. Upcoming us jobs report Source: DailyFX If job growth surprises to the downside by a wide margin, a March rate cut could reenter the picture. This would exert downward pressure on treasury yields and the US dollar, but should support gold prices and other precious metals, including silver. Conversely, if NFP numbers beat expectations and come on the strong side, we could see further unwinding of dovish bets on the Fed’s policy path - a bullish outcome for yields and the greenback. Gold, however, would not fare well in this scenario. Gold price technical analysis Gold inched higher on Wednesday but failed to clear resistance at $2,050, with prices pulling back after testing this area. It's too early to determine if this technical ceiling will hold, but in case it does, XAU/USD may retreat towards $2,005. On further weakness, a move towards $1,990 could materialize. In contrast, if bulls regain decisive control of the market and manage to drive prices decisively above $2,050, buying momentum could gather pace, setting the stage for a possible rally towards $2,065. Above this pivotal level, all eyes will be on $2,065—the highs from late December. Gold price daily chart Source: TradingView EUR/USD technical analysis EUR/USD has declined sharply recently, guided lower by the upper boundary of a falling wedge—a bullish pattern. To confirm this technical setup, prices must take out resistance at 1.0870. Such a scenario could usher in a rally toward the 50-day simple moving average at 1.0920, with the next target at 1.0950. Conversely, if EUR/USD deepens losses, initial support looms at 1.0780, followed by 1.0730, an important floor created by a long-term ascending trendline in play since September 2022. Vigilant defense of this zone by the bulls is imperative; any failure to protect this barrier may trigger a drop toward 1.0650. EUR/USD daily chart Source: TradingView USD/JPY technical analysis After a positive performance on Tuesday, USD/JPY changed course and slipped beneath the 100-day SMA at 147.40, signaling a bearish shift for the pair. If the retreat continues later this week, support is seen at 146.00. Below that, all eyes will be on the 50-day simple moving average. On the other hand, if the bulls reemerge and trigger a meaningful rebound, the first technical barrier against further advances is located at 147.40. Beyond that, the next hurdle for the bullish camp will be trendline resistance at 148.00. Further up, the focus will be on 148.80. USD/JPY daily chart Source: TradingView GBP/USD technical analysis Over the past few weeks, GBP/USD has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle- a continuation pattern composed of two converging trendlines: an ascending one connecting a sequence of higher highs and a descending one linking a series of lower lows. The symmetrical triangle is validated once prices of the underlying asset move outside the boundaries of the geometric shape, with the confirmation signal carrying greater strength if the break happens in the direction of the broader trend. In the case of GBP/USD, traders should watch two areas: resistance at 1.2750 and support at 1.2645. If support gives way, the bearish camp will likely focus on 1.2600, 1.2550 and 1.2455. On the flip side, if resistance is taken out, bulls may set their sights on 1.2830 and possibly even 1.3000. GBP/USD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Investors are digesting the impact of last night's Fed meeting, which has resulted in expectations of a March rate cut being scaled back. While the FOMC dropped the tightening bias in the statement, it said that cuts would not be appropriate until there was more confidence that inflation was heading back to 2%. However, Powell added that the committee did expect lower rates this year - while a strong labour market would not push back the timing of the first cut, the Fed would cut faster if employment weakened. This makes the next few payrolls readings even more important, and handily there is one tomorrow that could help provide clarity. It was a more mixed session for Asian markets, with a strengthening yen weighing on the Nikkei 225. Now the Bank of England takes its turn in the spotlight, with the focus on whether any policymakers will agitate for rate cuts. A hold on interest rates is all but a given nonetheless.

When shares trade at a record highs stocks are priced for perfection and when perfection doesn’t come it is an opportunity to sell. Written by: Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 31 January 2024 10:57 Both reported revenue and earnings that beat estimates, but MSFT sold off more than 2% and GOOG shares closed down almost 7%. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was another although there was also a poor outlook that accompanied it’s earnings. (AI Video Summary) Alphabet The tech industry had an eventful night with Microsoft and Alphabet, two big companies, making waves with their stocks. Microsoft's shares took a hit during the trading session, but they made a comeback in extended trading, rising overall. Microsoft's earnings and sales were up and down, but they exceeded expectations in terms of earnings per share, reaching a impressive $2.93. One of the reasons for this success was Microsoft's Azure cloud service, which attracted a whopping 53,000 new customers in the past year with the help of AI features. The Intelligent Cloud Unit, where Azure resides, also experienced a solid 20% growth in revenue, reaching a total of $25.9 billion. Microsoft Despite Microsoft's recent record-breaking success, investors were still demanding more. They were disappointed by news about the development of AI features, which had an impact on the share prices. However, Microsoft's stock managed to keep its market cap above three trillion, which is an astonishing achievement. On the other hand, Alphabet, the parent company of Google, also disappointed investors with a 7% drop in their shares during extended trading. While the company's earnings per share were slightly higher than expected, and total sales were better than anticipated, they faced tough competition from Microsoft in the AI development field. This led to a significant decrease in Alphabet's stock, the biggest drop seen in several months. AMD Another company that faced disappointment was Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Their shares took a massive nearly 10% hit in extended trading. AMD's earnings per share were slightly higher than forecasted, and their revenue reached a solid $6.2 billion. Their AI processors showed great promise, resulting in an optimistic 2024 forecast. However, these results were not enough to satisfy demanding investors. The stock took a heavy blow during the session, dropping by 10.36% for the current quarter. AMD's projected revenue for the future was also lower than what analysts had predicted, further contributing to the disappointment. Similar to Microsoft and Alphabet, AMD's stock had recently reached record highs but failed to live up to the high expectations set by investors. Overall, it was a night of ups and downs for these tech giants, demonstrating that even companies with impressive track records can face challenges and disappointments in the ever-changing world of trading. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Despite a recently-announced impairment to its profit forecast, Shell is expected to report stronger trading. Source: Bloomberg Shares Commodities Shell plc Price Petroleum Candlestick Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 30 January 2024 17:28 Shell earnings – what does the City expect? Shell is set to release its fourth-quarter (Q4) results on February 1. The current estimate for the quarter is a profit of $1.90 per share with revenue of $89 billion. What about Shell’s recent trading? Shell has recently announced that its Q4 profits will be impacted by a non-cash impairment charge of $2.5−$4.5 billion. This charge primarily stems from the Singapore refining and chemicals hub, which Shell intends to sell. The decision to sell its Singapore Chemicals & Products assets, including a refinery and an ethylene plant, is a significant contributor to this impairment charge. Despite the impairment charge, Shell remains optimistic about its quarterly performance. The integrated gas trading and optimization sector is expected to see a substantial increase from the previous quarter, and the company forecasts a production range of 880,000-920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from this unit. In the upstream business, Shell expects production in the range of 1.83-1.93 million barrels of oil equivalent per day for the Q4. These forecasts indicate a resilient operational performance. Analyst ratings for Shell Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of ‘buy’ for Shell with 3 strong buy, 7 buy and 2 hold – and a mean of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of €39.10 for the share, roughly 34% higher than the current price (as of 30 January 2024). Source: Refinitiv Technical outlook on the Shell share price Shell’s share price, which has fallen by around 3% since the beginning of the year, and by around 14% from its October 2023 €32.64 peak, is seen stabilizing. Shell Monthly Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView The Shell share price topped out in October of last year in a similar area to where it did so in September 2014 and May 2018 with the whole €32.64 to €32.945 representing a major resistance zone. The 5% recovery in the Shell share price from its €27.755 current January low has taken it back above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at €28.97 with the October and December lows at €29.090 to €29.185 acting as minor resistance. Shell Daily Candlestick Chart Source: TradingView If overcome, the 55-day SMA at €29.608 should be in play but only a much further advance to above the €30.96 early-January high would negative the last three months’ bearish play. Only then could the major €32.64 to €32.945 resistance zone be back on the cards. Good support below the 200-day SMA at €28.967 can be found between the mid-August to current January lows at €27.755 to €27.71. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

IMF's global growth upgrade fuels 'soft landing' optimism, slightly lifting oil and gold post-release. AUD/USD remains uncertain. Key risk events loom: BoE and Fed decisions, major earnings, and NFP report. Source: Bloomberg Forex Commodities International Monetary Fund Risk AUD/USD Investment Written by: Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg | Publication date: Wednesday 31 January 2024 05:50 IMF upgrades global growth as ‘soft landing’ hopes gain traction The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its outlook on global economic growth, as major economies reveal their resilience. Disinflation also continues to push prices lower, supporting a potential soft landing in 2024. However, there is acknowledgement that risks related to geopolitical conflicts, could affect global trade. In addition, the IMF also highlighted the potential for stubborn price pressures if reducing interest rates loosens financial conditions too much. The IMF provided an update on its global growth forecast, seeing the 2024 estimate rise from 2.9% back in October, to 3.1%. The organisation foresaw greater than expected resilience in the US, seeing its estimate for growth in 2024 rise from 1.5% to 2.1% for 2024. The organisation also acknowledged China’s fiscal efforts to jump start the local economy, seeing estimated growth rise from 4.2% to 4.6% this year. IMF upgrades its global economic outlook Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Markets have responded positively as gold and oil both moved higher in the wake of the update, although, gold has since reverted back to prices observed before the report was released. Oil received a boost, and remains a market filled with complexity amid supply chain uncertainty along the Red Sea and a rosier global economic outlook. API data later today, EIA storage figures and the NFP print on Friday provides oil traders with lots to think about this week. AUD/USD, the last chart shown below, is generally reflective of risk sentiment and hadn’t really seen a long-lasting advance in the minutes after the IMF’s update. The aussie dollar is procyclical in nature which means it exhibits a strong correlation with the S&P 500, although this has weakened recently and may be something to keep an eye on if aussie/China fortunes deteriorate in relation to the US. Multi-asset performance in the moments following the IMF’s global growth upgrade Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Amazon is poised to reveal its Q4 2023 earnings on February 2nd, 2024. Anticipated to showcase a robust increase in EPS and strong sales growth, the report is eagerly awaited by investors. Source: Bloomberg Shares Amazon Amazon Web Services E-commerce Cloud computing Revenue Written by: Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne | Publication date: Wednesday 31 January 2024 05:02 Amazon earnings date: The tech giant is scheduled to disclose its Q4 2023 earnings on 2 February at 8.00am AEDT, following the US market closure. Amazon Q4 expectations and key observations The anticipated earnings report for the upcoming quarter indicates a substantial improvement in earnings per share (EPS), projected to be $0.79. This represents a significant increase from the corresponding quarter in 2022, where the EPS was only $0.12 per share. Regarding revenue, Amazon's Q4 guidance from the previous earnings report suggests that net sales are expected to range between $160.0 billion and $167.0 billion. This indicates a growth rate of 7% to 12% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, marking a double-digit increase from the preceding quarter. Furthermore, the forecast for operating income is estimated to be between $7.0 billion and $11.0 billion, a notable rise from the $2.7 billion reported in the fourth quarter of 2022. FY24 Q2 expectations Source: Amazon AWS and online advertising Focusing on key business segments, Amazon's premier cloud service, AWS, is forecasted to continue its robust growth trajectory. AWS's sales are expected to increase by 15% year-over-year in Q4, slightly higher than the 12% growth observed in the prior period, while maintaining a remarkable operating margin above 30%. Despite facing stiff competition from Microsoft’s Azure and Google Cloud, Amazon's dominance in cloud services has been reinforced by the surge in AI, with existing customers launching generative AI workloads on AWS. Another area under scrutiny in the upcoming report is Amazon's online advertising venture. This sector reported revenues of $12.06 billion in Q3, a 26% increase year-over-year. With Q4 encompassing the peak holiday shopping season, an influx of shoppers to Amazon's e-commerce platform is likely, further bolstering its retail and advertising revenues. Analyst ratings and future projections In 2023, Amazon's stock significantly outperformed the S&P 500, achieving a remarkable 63% annual gain and affirming its status among the top performers of the 'Magnificent Seven' club. Emerging from the turmoil of 2022, the retail behemoth has impressed investors with its solid growth and optimistic future prospects. Not surprisingly, based on the IG platform’s TipRanks rating, Amazon boasts a smart score of 9 out of 10. Consensus among all 37 analysts surveyed in the last three months has been unanimous, with Amazon rated as a 'buy.' Analyst ratings Source: IG Technical analysis From a technical perspective, Amazon’s stock prices are advancing towards the early 2022 peak, with the $160 mark posing as a significant barrier and test ahead of the earnings announcement. Looking at the long-term trend, the stock's price trajectory remains strong. Particularly, the reversal of the head-and-shoulders pattern suggests potential for further gains once the pattern’s neckline, also around the $160 mark, is breached. In the short term, immediate support is identified at $155, with any further downturn potentially bringing the 20-day SMA into focus. Amazon weekly chart Source: Tradingview Amazon daily chart Source: Tradingview This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

While both Alphabet and Microsoft beat expectations last night, both saw their stock prices fall as concerns around the rising cost of massive AI investments weighed on investors' minds. Overnight in Asia the yen firmed up against the dollar after Bank of Japan meetings that showed policy normalisation was getting closer, and that some policymakers were now moving to favour a rate hike this year, Japan's first since 2007. Chinese manufacturing data showed a contraction for the fourth consecutive month, and Chinese indices fell once again. German GDP and inflation data dominate the morning and early afternoon, but are swiftly followed up by the ADP report, then EIA crude oil inventories and then the Fed decision tonight. Powell and co are expected to leave rates unchanged, but all eyes are on the statement and press conference for hints about the first rate cut. The chances of a March cut have dropped to 44%, according to CME Fed Watch, from the 70% seen at the start of the year. Markets are also on watch for any US response to the deaths of three soldiers at the weekend. US president Biden said that he had decided on action, but that he also wished to avoid a wider war in the Middle East.

ECB's dovish shift propels DAX to highs; BoE's potential pivot may impact FTSE's eight-month range. Caution advised. Source: Bloomberg Indices FTSE 100 European Central Bank DAX Technical analysis Bias Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 30 January 2024 04:51 Last week’s ECB meeting was more dovish than expected. While the ECB kept its deposit rate on hold at 4% and reiterated that it was premature to talk about rate cuts, president Lagarde’s comments were dovish relative to the December meeting and her recent comments in Davos. Spurred by gains on Wall Street and the European rates market pulling forward the pricing of a first ECB 25bp rate cut to April, and a chunky total of 140bp of rate cuts in 2024, the German stock market, the DAX, has since launched an assault on its January high. This week, the Bank of England (BoE) takes its turn to step up to the plate. The BoE will likely keep rates on hold at 5.25% and deliver a dovish pivot by removing its tightening bias and downgrading inflation expectations. The UK rates market has a first BoE 25bp rate cut priced for June and a total of 100bp of rate cuts priced for 2024. Confirmation of a dovish BoE pivot could be the catalyst that the FTSE has been waiting for to breakout from a stale eight-month range. BoE official bank rate Source: BoE FTSE technical analysis For the past eight months, the FTSE has been encapsulated below horizontal resistance at 7750ish and above support at 7200. The ability of the FTSE to close above the 200-day moving average into the end of last provides the foundation for the FTSE to set up another test of the horizontal resistance at 7750, that is also being reinforced by downtrend resistance coming from the 2023 high of 8047. If the FTSE can see a sustained break above 7750ish, it would warrant moving from a neutral bias to a bullish bias, looking for a test of the April 7936 high, with scope to the 8047 high. Aware that while the FTSE remains below resistance at 7750ish, more range trading is likely. FTSE daily chart Source: TradingView DAX technical analysis In our last update, it was noted that given the nature of the three-wave nature decline from the 17,123 high to the recent 16,464 low, it was likely a correction, and that the DAX should push to new highs in the 17,200/400 area. With the DAX just a stone’s throw from a fresh record high, this remains our view. However, we would be careful about chasing the market to new highs as we think that a pullback in the magnitude of 5-10% is not too far away. DAX daily chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 30 January 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Explore the latest fluctuations in crude oil prices as geopolitical tensions and economic stimuli influence market trends. Delve into how recent events and future economic indicators are impacting oil prices. Source: Bloomberg Shares Commodities Petroleum Price of oil WTI Federal Reserve IG Analyst | Publication date: Tuesday 30 January 2024 04:25 Crude oil prices retreat after recent gains Crude oil prices retreated a little on Monday after a string of gains last week took them back to highs not seen for twelve weeks. The West Texas Intermediate benchmark has edged back above $78 per barrel for the first time since 30 November. While a little pause for reflection is surely reasonable enough after a strong run, the near-term fundamentals continue to look very supportive. United States President Joe Biden has vowed a response to weekend attacks by reportedly Iranian-backed militia in Yemen which left three troops dead. Congressional hawks are already calling for a strike on Iran itself in retaliation and, whether this happens or not, it seems escalation in the Gaza/Red Sea conflict nexus is sadly assured. Away from that region, the market is looking for more stimulus out of Beijing and, on Wednesday, confirmation that the US Federal Reserve is still on board with market hopes that interest rates will be heading significantly lower this year. While there’s scope for disappointment on both counts, oil prices have found support in both hopes. Throw in last week’s news that the US economy expanded ahead of expectations in the final three months of 2023, and it is clear enough why oil prices should be gaining. Market outlook amidst uncertain demand and supply The backdrop is, however, a little more clouded than the current upbeat assessment might suggest. Notwithstanding those stimulus efforts and others, the market faces plentiful oil supply and decidedly uncertain end-user demand. However, this reality seems unlikely to reassert itself while Middle Eastern geopolitics remains in charge of the headlines. In terms of scheduled data, the Federal Reserve will be running the table for energy markets this week, as for all others. There are some other points of interest though, including Eurozone growth data and the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Technical analysis Prices appear to have faltered at a point that confirms a broad uptrend channel in place since 13 December. The rejection of that channel top at $79.07 isn’t quite conclusive at this point but still bears watching. Support is likely at $76.79, the first Fibonacci retracement of the rise from those mid-December lows. Bulls will need to recapture a trading band bounded by 1 November’s intraday low of $80.23 and 3 November’s high of $83.55, and consolidate their position there if they are going to make progress back to last year’s high of $94.98. Retaking that would be a massive ask even given current fundamental support. In any case, a period of consolidation looks likely now, albeit within the broader uptrend, which remains in place down to $73. Crude’s Relative Strength Index is getting close to overbought territory, having risen steadily into 2024. WTI crude oil daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Bank of England is not expected to loosen policy at this week’s meeting, but current market pricing points towards the possibility of rate cuts in 2024. Source: Bloomberg Forex Monetary policy Interest Interest rates Pound sterling Bank of England Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 29 January 2024 17:48 Threadneedle Street to leave rates unchanged The Bank of England (BoE), under the scrutiny of investors and market analysts, is expected to maintain its current interest rate position on 1 February. This anticipation comes at a time when the central bank has consistently maintained a firm stance against any discussions of rate cuts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the decision-making body within the BoE, has been closely monitored for any shifts in its messaging that could indicate a change in monetary policy direction. Markets pricing in 2024 cuts Despite the BoE's tough stance, the markets are currently pricing in four rate cuts in 2024. This forward-looking sentiment suggests that traders and investors are betting on a softer monetary policy approach in the near future. The rationale behind this expectation is rooted in the recent economic indicators showing a slowdown in inflation and wage growth. These factors are key considerations for the BoE when determining the appropriate interest rate level to achieve its primary goal of maintaining price stability and supporting economic growth. Housebuilders to benefit from rate cuts? For traders, the current economic climate presents a unique set of opportunities and challenges. On one hand, the prospect of future rate cuts could stimulate the economy and potentially boost stock prices. Companies in sectors such as housebuilders, which often benefit from lower borrowing costs, could see their stocks rise in anticipation of a more dovish monetary policy. For example, a company like Persimmon, a major UK homebuilder, might see increased investor interest as lower rates could lead to more affordable mortgage financing for homebuyers. On the other hand, the uncertainty surrounding the timing and extent of any potential rate changes requires traders to be vigilant and adaptable. Fixed-income securities, such as government bonds, are particularly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. A surprise rate cut or a delay in expected cuts could lead to significant price movements in bond markets, impacting the portfolios of traders who are exposed to these assets. Technical analysis – GBP/USD GBP/USD continues to trade sideways below last week’s high at $1.2775 while remaining above Friday’s $1.2676 low. Below it meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.2649. Further down lies the more significant $1.2613 to $1.2597 area which consists of the late-December to January lows. A rise above Friday’s high at $1.2758 is needed for last week’s peak at $1.2775 to be revisited. Above it lies significant resistance between the mid-December-to-January highs at $1.2794 to $1.2828. GBP/USD chart Source: TradingView Technical analysis – EUR/GBP EUR/GBP’s decline from its £0.8714 December high has taken it to today’s £0.8514 five-month low which lies within the significant June-to-August support zone at £0.8519 to £0.8493. This area is likely to hold but if not, the April 2021 low at £0.8472 would be next in line. Resistance above Monday's £0.8549 high, which coincides with the December low, can be seen along the December-to-January downtrend line at £0.8562. Whilst it caps, further downside is expected to be seen. EUR/GBP chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Oil price slides on demand concerns while corn and wheat prices also drop Outlook on WTI, corn and wheat ahead of Wednesday’s US FOMC meeting. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 30 January 2024 12:34 WTI slips on demand concerns Front month WTI futures swiftly reversed their early Monday morning gains to 78.87 following a deadly drone attack on a US military base in Jordan by Iran-backed militia as China demand concerns outweighed the fear of an escalation in the Middle East. The fall through the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 77.27 puts the one-month uptrend line at 76.48 and also the late December high at 76.20 on the map. If slipped through, the 12 and 22 January highs at 75.45 to 75.27 would be eyed next. Minor resistance above the 200-day SMA at 77.27 sits at Friday’s 78.22 high ahead of Monday’s 78.87 near two-month peak. Source: ProRealTime Corn price slips to mid-January low Front month corn futures trade back in three-year lows and have so far fallen to 455, to their mid-January low which was made below the 460.1 July 2019 high, with the November 2020 high at 438 representing the next downside target. Minor resistance sits at the 451.8 low seen on Friday followed by the 22 January high and Thursday’s low at 454.0 to 454.1. More significant resistance lies at last week’s 459.5 peak. Source: ProRealTime Chicago Wheat prices resume their descent Chicago wheat front month futures prices have resumed their descent and are seen sliding back towards their November-to-January uptrend line at 585.5 which lies above the mid-January low at 581. Minor resistance can be spotted along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 607. While last week’s high at 623 isn’t overcome, the medium-term trend remains bearish. Source: ProRealTime

Dow, Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 resume their march higher Indices have made gains once more, though US indices face a major test with big tech earnings, a Fed decision and payrolls data all happening this week. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 30 January 2024 12:45 Dow hits new record The index sits at a new record high, having made further gains on Monday. This marks a continuation of the breakout from 19 January, taking the index further into new territory. Recent weakness from mid-December found buyers at 37,100, so in the short-term any weakness may find support around this level. A deeper retracement may develop if the index closes below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 steady ahead of tech earnings Monday saw the index head back towards last week’s record high, maintaining the leg higher from the early January low. Trendline support from early January could come into play in the event of a push back towards 17,000. Below this the 16,630 support area and then the 50-day SMA come into view. This week could see some volatility return, given the presence of earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Meta and Amazon on the calendar. Source: ProRealTime Nikkei 225 turns higher The new week saw the Nikkei 225 move higher, recouping some of the losses suffered over the past week. Should a new higher low have been formed, then a resumption of the move higher will target 37,000. A close above this then leaves the 1990 high at 38,951 as the last area of potential resistance currently. Short-term weakness targets the mid-January low around 35,340. Source: ProRealTime