Caseynotes
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Posts posted by Caseynotes
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8 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:
But I have 80% success on the Demo Casey!
Anyway, Gold, I figured it's foolish to Go long while it's going in a Down trend so went straight back in at 1418 to Short.
Took £10 off me. Time for a break. Still £20 up
How many times have you been round this block, demo - live - demo - live ..., success - failure - success - failure ....
Again, there is no such thing as success on demo, not 80% not any %.
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19 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:
I'm not at all confident about this one. Mistake?
Yes.
Of course, if you have no confidence it's because you have no real reasoning or validation for taking the trade and if you don't have that how will you know when the trade idea becomes invalid, you've gone back to just punting 🤨
When on demo every time you get away with it reinforces bad choices and when you don't get away with it it's just forgotten because there are no real consequences, and then you go back to live and suddenly there are very real consequences.
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8 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:
Also^^^^
If this pattern is a Descending Wedge, when should I get out, if at all? Is it likely to go back up? What is the statistic?The strongest line on the chart is the horizontal support line, horizontals are always stronger than diagonals and for a short the most recent low is the FTA (first trouble area) where you should consider bailing if price can't swiftly break through.
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2 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:
What would you all advise or have advised?
I think for anyone not to sure of in-trade management the best solution is to concentrate on identifying good entries and entry execution and just fire a bracket order at it so a market order entry with approp stop loss and a take profit at 2:1 and let it sink or swim. You need to get your entries right first, later you can work on how best to manage it.
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2 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:
Tell me what you see please and what you'd do here?
On the M15 I see a spike and bull channel and now consolidation, I would box off the upper and lower reaches of the consolidation and wait for a break which might be in either direction. In that situation the break lower to retest the top of the spike has the slightly higher probability.
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Just now, dmedin said:
Is the demo platform different from the live platform? I.e. deliberately misleading?
no, it's the same, it's you that's different. No risk, no emotion, no consequences.
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3 minutes ago, nit2wynit said:
So far a £1000 education on how I'm not keeping to the Rules. OK. Got my Fail Badge well and truly earned. Let's turn this around.
Countertrending and playing reversals is specialised and needs experience because reversals are relatively rare or at least far less common than continuation. After a spike and flag or pennant then continuation was the higher prob outcome and that's what should have been anticipated and reacted to once seen.
Trying to second guess the market is a losing game, instead learn to spot when an attempt to reverse fails and is revealed to be just another pullback, 'buy the failed dip' (or sell the failed rally) should be the number 1 strategy in the playbook.
I would forget about a screener and leave the illiquid shares alone and just stick to ftse or it's pumped up cousin dax.
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1 minute ago, nit2wynit said:
I've never doubted your advice @Caseynotes, unfortunately it's not how the human brain works. We learn in increments. I can read books, blogs etc. till the cows come home, but until it clicks....then it's just words. I can look at the chart and tell you the points where i should have got in or out, but if my brain was fixed on a drop coming, I always ALWAYS try to beat it. My greatest problem I've come to realise.
I know what happened yesterday now after sleeping on it. In the grand scheme of things, Gold hadn't moved that much. There was definitely an opportunity to make money, but at £20 per point the risks were too great, therefore my stops were too tight, and the 1 or 2 point fluctuations were putting me under too much. The Instrument didn't suit me. I got tied into it again and FOMO ruined me waiting for the big reversal that didn't come, though it looks like it's turned now hitting 1425 resistance while asleep. I literally watched the spike while i was in a short. Such a shame. I knew it was coming.
I'll need to go back to my previous Demo successes to see what I've missed. I've a feeling the likes of the FTSE OR ANY instrument that moves 10 points at a time at around £5 per point, is my aim. This is where I had most of my success. I'd take anything from 2-10 points from a move. Ten small quick trades per day, making £10 on each. Perfect for me.
There is a ratio of Margin vs Price per point that I've not nailed down. but £20 per point and only 27 points of movement over 10 hours on Gold isn't it. I max my margin on every trade, so long of the spread doesn't put me over £10. So this is what I need to figure out. Maximise Margin with adequate Stop, but Spread cost is only £10
Small bets today till I find the right Instrument to trade. Can you recommend one that has decent point movement?
Thanks
Several points to make, see my thread Trade Planning and Testing and look at the prob chart on sequential losing trades, you can't beat the math and your account size can't cope with £20/point trade size, you are practically guaranteed to blow your account.
Your stated goal from the beginning was to make a lot of money fast, it all went down hill from there which was inevitable, your goal meant you were practically guaranteed to blow your account.
You say above that with hindsight you can see what you should have done, not really.
What you should have done was make your first goal survival. Learn to read chart structure and to anticipate and react, not try to predict. And not to just gamble but develop a rule based plan, if this, this and this happen, then I do that. Then test it to make sure it works, then test live on min position size to make sure it works.
Demo has not been good to you, you can't have real 'success' on demo, there is no such thing. Demo if misused just encourages gambling but without the consequences, until you go live. The same cycle keeps repeating itself. Once you've used demo to learn the platform keep off it.
You tried ftse before and had some success with it but then went chasing all the big movers only to get in late, there's another lesson right there 🙂
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BTC looking like it's wanting to re-check support at the recent low 11150.
H4 chart;
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Starting the day looking for support, Dax below the pivot may find it here at 12392 or further down 70s then 50s. Dow above the pivot but has 2 resistance levels to climb through to get to R1 at 27013.
H1 charts;
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8 minutes ago, jdoepel said:
CAN NOT CHANGE FROM LIMIT DAY TO GTC
Hi, see the top of this thread may provide the answer.
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Dow already heading towards the highs, Dax has some ground to make up, Ftse trying higher off a solid base.
Daily charts;
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Everything up except USD and Crypto. Chart USD basket.
Carney speaks 11am, EU mon pol accounts 12:30, US CPI and jobs data 1:30pm
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5 hours ago, nit2wynit said:
I just don't get it. i can't see what's wrong........................
Did try on a number of occasions to point out the problems of your method (or lack of) but was very much a case of 'I can already do it, but just this ...'
Stick to one market, get to know it well.
Have one rules based entry trigger, get to know it well.
Same for exit trigger.
Gut feelings and fomo were never going to work.
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2 hours ago, istevo said:
please explain controlled risk increments re position size and risk levels
Hi @istevo, see this video linked below on risk management.
Essentially the amount of risk on a trade is your stop loss, the size of the stop loss determines your position size as it relates to your predetermined risk appetite.
So if you have decided you are comfortable risking X% of your account balance per trade and your stop loss needs to be X number of points then away from your entry then the position size for each trade can be calculated.
Amount to risk £100, stop size 20 points;
100 / 20 = 5
so the position size will be £5 per point.
Also see 'evolving R'.
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This one for all you bears out there, low liquidity since Feb, see chart.
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S&P sits just under 3000 and poised to move higher.
Daily chart;
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Dow retraces 50% back to R1 while Dax sits on S1. Tomorrow may well bring continuation higher lead by Dow.
H1 charts;
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Strong push after Powell's mon pol statement today, looking ahead to the recent highs of 1439 but due a pause to avoid exhaustion.
H4 chart;
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Captures the 60 mentioned this morning, may look to consolidate here.
H4 chart;
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BTC really tanking now, has dropped back down through the resistance zone to 11740.
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9 minutes ago, Clique said:
Just wondering why the demo accounts and the MY Ig page have been taken down for the fed decision tonight... I mean what a sh*t time to do it. Could I please get an explanation as there is absolutely zero material on this or forewarning. Not making a good case for a transition to Live account.
P.S. Dont shyte on the demo accounts so much, where do you think your future pip wins are coming from...
Hi, the wed based new platform demo seems to be working fine, were you meaning a different platform?
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Dow tags R3, Dax stuck at the pivot.
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Next week is one of the best performing weeks of the year for the S&P by median historic data.
See seasonality tool below.
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Dax & Dow
in Indices and Macro Events
Posted
Dow closing in on yesterday's high with CPI and jobs data in a few minutes. Data these days is a double edged sword, don't want to see figures so good they reduce the expectancy of a rate cut latter this month.
Dax struggling to stay above S1.