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TrendFollower

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Blog Comments posted by TrendFollower


  1. @ProjengENG,

    Yes there could well be implications for both EM and FM in relation to quantitative tightening. One would expect a decrease in investment in those markets. When US interest rates rise can the US markets withstand the inevitable? I think in today's world of globalisation EM's are part of a diversified portfolio. They could see their allocation in portfolio's decline but I can only see investment increasing into EM's going forwards in the long term with a few setbacks along the way. This would be normal and expected. 

    Even if EM's and FM's decline or there is a large downside then what an investment opportunity! There would be compelling reasons for investing when near a bottom for 'value investing' reasons. If this was to happen then I would like to think I am greedy enough to invest when others are panicking. 


  2. @cryptotrader,

    Apologies if the Kia example did not make any sense. 

    I have not stated anything about evidence. 

    @cryptotrader, are you able to actually demonstrate or evidence any ETF's which have outperformed traditional Emerging Market or Frontier Markets investment funds or investment trusts over the past 1 yr, 3yr, 5yr or even 10yr?

    If you are then please do share with the IG Community. I am struggling to find any so I doubt there are many but if you know of any then please do share. I will keep an open mind and will personally consider investing in those ETF's which you suggest and bring to our attention. 

    The point I am making is yes we all know about the 'extra' fund charges for investment funds and even investment trusts to a certain degree. Investing in hedge funds usually entail some form of performance fee. It is well documents that ETF's offer a cheaper and lower cost alternative to investing in those products. The question is on whether they offer superior performance and better returns? If they do then great they should be seriously considered over my examples. If they do not then I would rather pay extra fees and costs to obtain better returns as they is why I invest!

    • Like 1

  3. @JamesIG,

    I am not a huge fan of ETF investing as yes it has lower costs but I would much rather pay additional fees to acquire better returns. Specialist fund managers who can stock pick the right companies within their Emerging Market funds offer the potential of increased returns. I accept during downturns ETF's in this area may go down slightly less but over the past 10 years or even 20 years have any Emerging Market or Frontier Market ETF's achieved better returns over 3, 5, 10 or 20 years than actual investment funds?

    I am not aware of any but if you or the panel are in the broadcast and they can evidence this then this may be a question to ask. I would be very much interested in high performing ETF's which outperform in terms of returns against traditional investment funds.

    It is not simply about lowest cost options. When buying a car it can be cheaper to purchase a Kia as it gets you from A to B. But if you want to get from A to B quicker, be more comfortable, enjoy the drive, listen to better quality sound, have heated massaging seats then you have to pay more for a better experience car. This was just a mere example so I urge any Kia owners not to take offence. 


  4. @PandaFace,

    Yes you are quite right. In any downturn in equities, Frontier Markets, will go down the most, followed by Emerging Markets of course. Risk On / Risk Off investor sentiment. 

    I invest monthly into my investment fund portfolio which includes Emerging Market, Frontier Markets and many other areas. I use the 'Pound Cost Averaging' methodology. Where I have tweaked my investment strategy and approach based on acquired knowledge and experience is to invest lump sums only where there are major corrections, pullbacks, drops, etc. Otherwise I continue every month investing into these funds. Recessionary periods and economic instability are the best times that Emerging and Frontier Markets fall which is a good time to invest lump sums in my personal opinion.

    I have been executing the above strategy for many years now and it has served me well. I am yet to come up with a better investment strategy that is more effective and profitable over a number of years than this. Yes if you were to invest lumps sums only at the lowest point and sell that the highest point then it would provide better returns which actually doing this is very difficult without a 'crystal ball'. 

    • Like 1

  5. @JamesIG,

    I have an interest in both Emerging Markets and Frontier Markets from a long term investment perspective to create wealth through capital growth. 

    I do not want to trade Emerging Markets. I only want to invest in them and invest in Frontier Markets. I see Gavin Serkin is involved in Frontier Markets yet this GEM Chat does not really mention anything to do with Frontier Markets. 

    Africa is the last large Frontier Market which has huge potential in the future to become an Emerging Market should it seriously reduce corruption, improve living standards, create jobs, create vibrant economies, improve education, reduce poverty, etc. 

    I have invested in both Emerging Markets and Frontier Markets for many years now and believe these increase the chances of an investment portfolio performing better and more profitable over a longer period of time.

    Here are some articles which may be of interest to those who are interested in Frontier Markets on the IG Community: 

    Frontier markets offer high growth and low valuations

    https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/funds-etfs/2019/01/31/frontier-markets-offer-high-growth-and-low-valuations-but-at-a-high-risk/

    'Fortune and glory, kid': the untapped potential of frontier markets

    https://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/fortune-and-glory-kid-the-untapped-potential-of-frontier-markets/a1191427

    I personally like Asian Frontier Markets and African Frontier Markets.

    @JamesIG, I do not really have any questions but may well listen to the broadcast to see what if anything they suggest in relation to Frontier Markets. The one thing I do know is that they are long term investments and extremely high risk investments. I am not sure what if anything they can offer me so hence cannot really come up with any questions. I have been disappointed before on the Cryptocurrency broadcasts where they waffle and do not tell us anything some of us already so not know. I suppose these broadcasts are more for new and inexperienced traders?

    Anyway please do let us know when the broadcast can be viewed as I am sure some of us will forget!

    • Like 1

  6. @JamesIG,

    First of all, thank you. I think this will assist many traders to identify certain trades which they can seriously consider trading. I tend to like monitoring certain assets and its price action daily so I am in tune with that is happening and why it may be happening as you are living and breathing the trade live. 

    The danger with indicators (though it has far many positives) is that if the trader then does not put the work in and understand why the price is behaving the way it is, it may lead them into a potentially 'false' trade based on indicators. Using indicators should not mean less research, less effort and should not result to a lazy way of trading. Trading is not easy and if trading was just about trading on indicators then 81% of retail investors losing money would not make sense.

    However a really good thread @JamesIG and I think your post should encourage more traders to consider using indicators which should help them identify better trades at more opportune moments.  


  7. @GREATHOPE,

    I have received the same. Now I am in Gold and Silver which relate to USD and these specific trades will be affected as will any other trades in USD. So I assume my Natural Gas short, my S&P500 short, my Bitcoin short, etc. 

    If you are in a strong trend and your trade so far is both successful and profitable then I would be inclined to let IG take such 'high' charges. If your positions are weak, the trend is weaker and you are in losing trades, you may wish to consider cutting your losses. 

    This is a personal choice and decision that only you must make. The charges will not affect your decisions to enter the trade and should not change the price behaviour of the assets you are trading. 


  8. @IG-Andi,

    Could Bitcoin have finally found stability? I am not sure. There could still be another move downwards. This may just be a short covering rally. It could also be amplified by traders going long thinking the bottom has been hit. I would like to see Bitcoin test the recent bottom and would like to see a 'double bottom' formed before getting too excited.

    Now this is from someone who is positive on Cryptocurrencies!


  9. A Bitcoin ETF approval would give Bitcoin a much wider audience thus increasing the potential for the Bitcoin price to go higher. Whether this happens or not is a different matter but it would certainly increase the possibility for this to happen. This alone could lead to potential speculation and this very speculation combined with trend followers, hedge funds, etc. could all lead the Bitcoin price higher. 

    Bitcoin right now is just 'treading' until it receives a catalyst to move either up or down. I think a non approval could be the catalyst for Bitcoin to experience another large drop. 


  10. In my personal opinion, If the SEC approve an ETF for Bitcoin then the price will go up. By how much I do not know. However, I do not think the a SEC delay or rejection at this stage is quite priced in. If that were to happen then I think Bitcoin could go down to $5000 levels or even lower based on negative sentiment. 

    I think the price behaviour of Bitcoin is showing great strength and resilience and it has done this not just now but over the past 10 years. Large corrections have been seen and then larger comebacks in these 10 years. 

    • Like 1

  11. Where is the capital which is flowing away from Asian stock markets going?

    It is not seem like it is Gold or Bitcoin. 

    Is it Bonds!

    Bonds are more traditional assets in times of uncertainty and with Trump's trade war and Brexit then it may just be that capital begins to leave stock markets and go to Bonds. It will be an interesting one to keep an eye on.  The trick is to shift your own personal capital before the media even reports/comments on such trends and movements.

    Then once 'joe bloggs' starts looking at Bonds to then move back into the more 'riskier' stock markets to maximise capital growth opportunities. If this is too much hassle then use any major corrections as an opportunity to top up and add to your long term positions. Be greedy on any major stock market crashes / corrections.


  12. @Caseynotes, there is a lot of foreign capital invested in say the FTSE 100 index from various countries around the world. This includes pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc.

    Should they all get jittery due to the final Brexit deal then there may be a run on say the FTSE 100. I am not suggesting there will be one but it is possible should the deal be bad for the UK.


  13. Boris Johnson has followed with his resignation.

    What strategies are others within the IG Community adopting with Brexit in mind? 

    There could be a wonderful opportunity if the UK stock market crashes for picking up stocks reminiscent of the financial crisis in terms of value (cheap).

    Make sure you are ready with capital loaded up in case some very special buying opportunities come that appear once in a lifetime.

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