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TrendFollower

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Posts posted by TrendFollower


  1. @elle, Another good¬†post.ūüĎćūüŹĺ

    @Mercury, I agree. You make a good point.

    If one keeps saying or predicting there will be a recession then eventually there is going to be one. We all know that and it is part of the economic cycle which has existed for many years now. They may get the timing wrong by a few months or years! Then they will take the credit for saying they predicted a recession. 

    Just be ready to short the market when the recession arrives and profit from it. 

    • Thanks 1

  2. @elle, ūüĎćūüŹĺūüėā I wish I did.

    In my experience markets do not always behave like economic theory suggests. Neither does it always behave like market experts are predicting as reported in the media. 

    This is why price action is king. Traders often forget that the markets are is future discounting mechanism of around six months into the future so the current price action is not always in tune with current news and activity.

    Traders find it easy to associate current price action as with current market news as they find comfort¬†¬†in such an explanation but the media ‚Äėmarket noise‚Äô make it worse by influencing the thinking of traders. This is why one must ignore¬†market noise when trying to understand price action as it is not always what the media try and convince its audience to be.


  3. Also he emphasis the importance of probabilities. It does not matter what the market is going to do next. We don’t know as we don’t have crystal **** that can predict with any robust accuracy. What is important is what we as traders do next and this is where this book excels. 


  4. @ChrisN,

    If there is a recession and we see bearish price action then once certain signals and indicators are met then I would short the area of the market which is trending the strongest. It could be a particular index in the world or several but which ever are the strongest trending in a bearish move I would try and identify as early as I can and ride that trend until it reverses.

    This strategy works for me and has done so over many years. As the price goes in my favour I would add on any corrections upwards. If my risk management is sound then I would make effective use of leverage to increase my profit potential.

    The market will beat me more times than I beat the market. That is not the important metric. I will end the year losing more times to the market but still be in profit. For me it is all about profit maximisation. What can I include in my trading strategy that not only increases the chances of me profiting the most from any recession but increase the amount of profit I can make. I have not seen anything to prove that EWT would improve and increase my winning percentages or profit amounts. Without his how can one know that it truly makes a difference? One must compare different trading strategies to see which one is more effective as otherwise how does one decide which trading strategy to adopt? 

    Being able to quantify that using EWT and Fibonaccci increase my winning percentage by   X% and increase my profits by £X.00 is crucial to understanding the significance EWT can have in your trading strategy. 

    Which available resources do you suggest I look at as I could not find any on the Internet which demonstrate by quantifying the impact of EWT in a trading strategy.


  5. So are other trading strategies that do not use EWT and Fibonacci retracements. 

    It is all down to success rate and then more importantly the profit amount. You can have a lower success rate but a higher profit amount than someone who has a higher success rate but lower profit amount. 

    Is there any data or credible source that proves that using EWT and Fibonacci in your trading strategy increases your chances of a successful trade or improves the odds and probability of you making more / higher profits than not using them?

    Is there any material that one can look at which demonstrates or proves that it is worth including in your trading strategy? I don’t mean books on EWT as that will have a positive bias towards EWT.

     


  6. @tehka,

    First of all, just out of interest did you understand the wonderful analysis you are referring to? If so then how would you use it your advantage in your trading idea to give you even a better chance of success and a greater chance of making more profits? 

    Indices tend to move up and down together. There is a correlation and this is pretty clear when you monitor the price action on a daily basis. Even if you look at the charts then you will see a lot of similarities. This means any trading strategy for indices can be applied to several similar trending indices.


  7. @dmedin, 

    If Gold hits your price target and you open a long trade then just hold that trade and do nothing clever until the trend reverses. Set your stop loss appropriately based on your risk tolerance and how much you are willing to lose of your capital or profits if you initiate a trailing stop. I wait until I am in profit to initiate my trailing stop. If you have a strong conviction based on the price action and certain signals and indicators then add on any dips.

    Keep is as simple as you can. The key is to make as much profit as you can. The longer you are in a rising trend then the greater your chance of a winning trade and greater profit potential. If you have the risk appetite for it then use leverage on your trade to increase the profits but use a robust risk management strategy before doing so.

    • Like 1

  8. When looking at the fundamentals for Coffee they seem bleak. Brazil crops have added to the oversupply.

    Understanding the 'Demand and Supply' in Commodities is very useful and when the fundamentals are linked with the technicals then it can allow you to trade Commodities more effectively. 

    Apparently small time growers in Central America are fleeing the industry. It is when times are so bad that there can be the beginning of a strong trend. Now this may or may not happen with Coffee but it is worth monitoring the price action. 

    Now imagine if there is a recession around the top consuming coffee nations? This would reduce the demand for coffee or the amount of coffee being consumed. Add the oversupply issues and there could be further downside risk or it could have already been priced in. This is what a trader needs to work out. 

    Now when all the bad news is priced in one can begin to look at any breakout and strong trending action upwards. It is all about following the price action, being patient and at times doing nothing but monitoring. 


  9. @tehka,

    First of all, thank you for sharing this trade idea.

    Secondly, it is nice that you have explained your trade idea with simplicity as you must appreciate the audience on IG Community. There are only a few 'active' participants on the IG Community who could understand the truly complex trading explanations.

    In terms of your trading idea, it may well work, but it seems risky to me. When looking at the daily, the price is below the 20, 50, 100, and 200 DMA's. So it is bearish and ripe for a short trade. I think the 'short' trade could have been initiated earlier when the price went below its 200, 100 and 50 DMA's. There were points to be taken from that point to the price going below its 20 DMA. However, hindsight is a wonderful thing. 

    75637296_HongKongHS50_20190819_05_22.png.cb924e287d4a81a11af97fef80ca7d54.png

    The problem is that the price may have support around the 24500 level. Also like you said the price could surpass the 20 DMA which would be a sign for the more aggressive traders to go long. The thing for me that is in your favour is the the Moving Averages curves are sloping downwards on the 'daily' which is bearish and may well support your trading idea.

    Lets us know how your trade does, good or bad. 


  10. @Mercury,

    I see you have started to look at Coffee. Excellent. If you look at both Arabica and London (Robusta) then one could argue that we are witnessing oversold conditions especially if you look at longer term timeframes like the 'Monthly' and potentially the 'Weekly'. 

    For me it is about identifying potential breakouts. We may see that in the days and weeks to come but right now at this moment in time both on the 'daily' are trading below 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's so it is still bearish for me. It is one I am monitoring closely. 

    Commodities can offer some excellent trading opportunities and produce some of the strongest trends. I do not use or apply EWT but if you can use it to effectively increase your chances of success which leads to a greater chance of¬†profiting then¬†all the best.¬†ūüĎć


  11. I last posts around 2-3 weeks ago on this thread and I have seen Litecoin go down towards the lower $70's. It is currently trading at $76-77 at the time of writing this post. 

    Litecoin's chart looks pretty ugly. It is currently trading below its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's which is very bearish. 

    Only really Bitcoin (significantly) and Bitcoin Cash are trading above their 200 DMA's on the 'daily. 

    Litecoin will need some very bullish news or a big move from Altcoins / Bitcoin otherwise it could easily fall down into the 60's. 

    After the halving event, it seems, Litecoin has been heavily sold. This capital may now shift to Bitcoin. That is my suspicion and assumption and the price action will confirm this. I will be interested to see if the divergence between Bitcoin and Litecoin increases. 


  12. Right now Bitcoin Cash seems to have lost its way a bit in terms of positive news.

    It is consolidating as expected and is currently trading at the $320 area which is the area it was trading at last week so even with all the price fluctuations it seems to have found some support for the time being over $300. 

    It will either take a strong upward move from 'Big Daddy' Bitcoin or some very positive news to move Bitcoin Cash upwards. 


  13. I would love to see any research over the past 10 years on how Cryptocurrencies perform specifically on Sunday. 

    I have seen it time and time again over the past few years where Crypto's perform strongly on Sunday. Today is no different. Maybe it is Japan and Asia in general, I don't know. 

    I would be interested in any research (which is credible of course) that may have been conducted on price performance for Crypto's on a Sunday. If anyone is aware then please do let me know. 


  14. US Dollar - The World's Reserve Currency:

    The US Dollar as the world's reserve currency is an issue which causes mix reactions and thoughts. When the US Dollar  became the reserve currency there was no Euro or Chinese Renminbi. Since their introduction it has eaten into the US Dollar's world dominance and as a result has led to it declining from the 70%-80% range to the 60% range.

    If one remembers, the UK Pound Sterling, once was the world's reserve currency but it now only accounts for around 4% at the moment. So things can change and it is not a given that the US Dollar will remain the world's reserve currency forever. It will have to earn that right which it may well do. 

    The US Dollar’s share of global central bank reserves hit a 5-year low, according to the International Monetary Fund.

    Now is this the beginning of a significant change here? Is the US, the world superpower it once was? There is no doubt it is the mightiest country in the world at this moment in time in terms of economics but imagine if the US Dollar lost its reserve currency status. This would have a large impact on the economics within the US. 

    I do not envisage the US losing its status anytime soon but if things continue to get worse and other countries find ways to conduct international transactions / transfers / payments without the need to hold US Dollars, and an alternative arises then who knows. 


  15. I am not suggesting that Bitcoin will not go down to the $8k or $7k levels as I simply do not know. The question I would like to ask those who are negative or bearish about Bitcoin and those who think it is garbage and junk which will go down to zero, why it has not gone down to $8k or even $7k yet since it went up to $12k? Why is the price still over $10k albeit flirting in the $9k's briefing before returning to above $10k?

    Could it be because there is current demand at this price level and not enough sellers yet to take it down to $7k or $8k? If this is the case then why are there not enough sellers to take it down to $7k to $8k level? Oh wait those buying Bitcoin are stupid and silly and oh yes there is market manipulation. Normally the two common arguments presented without a shred of evidence to support it. 

    Why do Fidelity want to get a piece of this pie? As a Fidelity customer and I have been for many years I can tell you that Fidelity have realised that its 'High Net Worth (HNI) want exposure to Bitcoin. Fidelity are also looking at offering its clients storage facilities for Bitcoin. Would Fidelity who manage over a trillion of assets world wide really bother if Bitcoin was junk and going down to zero?

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