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TrendFollower

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Posts posted by TrendFollower


  1. Just 19 hours later from my previous post and Bitcoin is holding firm but the rest of the 'Alt Coins' are dropping in price considerably. Bitcoin mat well follow suit. Time and price action will tell us whether this happens or not. The rest of today and tomorrow should be very interesting. 


  2. Looking at Lumber then it seems to me that it needs to hold the $30000 level. If it can defend and hold that then there could be further upside this year. If not then it could begin going down into the late $20000's. This is a personal assumption which now will need to be tested based on current price behaviour. 

    In my opinion, for any trend followers who are short, they must hold (even if they do not add to their positions on further price declines) until there is a clear trend reversal. This should execute their stop loss / trailing stop.

    In my opinion, for any trend followers who are waiting on the sidelines that do not want to short, then they must wait patiently until there is a clear trend reversal signalling / indicating a trend reversal to warrant a long trade initiation. 


  3. One thing to remember is that Platinum is trading at a cheaper price than Gold. Gold and Silver have left Platinum behind since the rally started back in August of last year. It seems Platinum has had enough and wants to begin to assert some authority on the price action. 

    Platinum of course has several important industrial uses. I think Platinum will try and hit the $1000 dollar area as that is an important psychological price point and these rallies love nice round numbers as a target. This is seen time and time again in Commodities. Platinum is both an industrial metal and a precious metal. 

    Platinum is also known at the 'Rich Man's Gold'. This could lead to a reversal in pricing between Platinum and Gold. Platinum should be more expensive than Gold and so there could be a shift in speculative capital from Gold into Platinum. Platinum could attract extra volatility as Gold and Silver are more liquid markets. 

    I do not know what will happen in the future for Platinum prices but I shall follow the price action closely.

    Platinum will not follow any of my thoughts or assumptions as to what I think may happen. Platinum is not obliged to follow any of my trading strategies or plans. Platinum may not follow the path I have mapped out in my mind and nor does it have to. Platinum will do what it will do just like any other Commodity.

    As a trader the key is whether I can profit from the price action or not. Prices can change like the weather and so can traders views and opinions. I know from my experience that on many occasions the price action changes my views and opinions. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that. If this did not happen due to stubbornness, ego or I know best attitude then it would be worth worrying about. 


  4. If anyone can name me an asset that has delivered the returns that Bitcoin has over the same time period of around seven years then I would be interested to know. 

    Current Price: $5,340.81    Today: +0.82%  +$43.24

    Period Dollar Change Percent Change  
    Today +$43.24 +0.82%
    Last 7 days +$263.09 +5.18%
    Last 30 days +$1,341.48 +33.54%
    Last 6 months -$1,114.68 -17.27%
    Last 1 year -$3,522.69 -39.74%
    Last 2 years +$4,085.41 +325.43%
    Last 3 years +$4,898.65 +1,107.90%
    Last 5 years +$4,847.72 +983.13%
    Last 7 years +$5,335.55 +101,434.35%

    Bitcoin supply is inflating at around 4% annually. This rate will drop sharply in 2020, when the next reward halving occurs. 


  5. Gold need a reason to move up otherwise it will merely play out a downward move followed by sideways price action. So right now all the potential drivers have been delayed. So what are they?

    • UK Brexit
    • US-China Trade talks (lasting forever)
    • Recessions in major economies like the US
    • War
    • Significant Political and Economic Uncertainty

    I could go on but you get the gist of it. There is no strong driver for the Gold price right now. Until this changes then Gold is not going anywhere near $1400 levels. No one has a map of the future. None us can possibly know what is going to happen going forwards. The speculative capital that drove Gold prices up is the same speculative capital that can drive Gold prices down. 

     


  6. So 14 hours later from my previous post (above) all the Crypto's that IG offer through their platform are in the blue. It is 08:32 am.

    Now many argue that it was just fluke / guess that I have made. I was reading some research which showed the Bitcoin performed well in April and it has finished April on a positive note over the last four consecutive April's. It was currently up around 27% on a month-to-month basis. 

    Bitcoin had previously rallied 8%, 26% and 33% percent in the month of April in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively.

    When you look back at the data then you will see that Bitcoin has posted gains in April in five out of the last seven years.


  7. @robdyson,

    Well spotted. I was waiting for someone else on the IG Community to share any potential breakout and potential trend to trade in relation to Commodities. 👏

    Looking at the 'daily' it seems it is making new 'Higher Highs' and new 'Higher Lows'. 

    824127346_SpotPlatinum_20190419_08_50.thumb.png.976d76d36fda8983b090de26c590a04c.png

    This is a bullish indicator. 

    Platinum is also trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA on the 'daily'.

    1051659283_SpotPlatinum_20190419_08_52.thumb.png.e7cd74bdfe9bcecff1826f2d40936823.png

    This too is a bullish indicator. 

    It is trading above the dots on the Parabolic SAR which is a potential signal and a potential confirmation for a trend change. 

    1866450780_SpotPlatinum_20190419_08_53.thumb.png.823edd9e5e9284ecfddf24ec2c049763.png

    So there are enough positive indicators and I would expect some of the Commodity traders to have got in earlier. 

    One of the things I do (not always) is place the smallest trade possible on any breakout of a trading range that crosses its 20 DMA. Then when it meets certain parameters in relation to indicators I add to the positions. So for example it crosses certain moving averages, etc. This way I build my position up with the trend and price strength. It also means I get in as early as possible. Sometimes waiting for signals may mean that most of the move is missed as it lags behind. From a risk perspective if the breakout fails to kick on and the trade goes against me then my stop loss exits me out of the trade with a small loss. Losses will be incurred so trade selection is vital to keep these to a minimum. 


  8. Gold's price has been declining since middle of February 2019 and Bitcoin's price has been increasing in this same period. Now this could be a mere coincidence.

    I read somewhere that it may have been possible that someone sold £100m of Gold and shifted this into Bitcoin recently. Now I do not know if this is true and it may be a load of rubbish. On the other hand it would not surprise me if it were true. 

    What we are seeing is the new future digital generation. They are going to understand Bitcoin more than Gold. They are going to appreciate Bitcoin more than Gold. They may transfer their family inheritance (a small proportion) of it into Bitcoin rather than Gold. What we may see is wealth across the globe being transferred into digital assets like Bitcoin rather than Gold. This transformation could increase the valuation of Bitcoin substantially.

    This is certainly the picture being painted but there may be a lot of 'froth' and 'inaccuracy' in the detail of such pictures. 


  9. The question I am being asked is whether Gold is worth investing / trading (long) due to the recent sell off?

    My answer is that I simply do not know. Based on the current trend and price action Gold could easily continue downwards in which case any price today could get a lot lower. 

    For me there is still the inherent risk that Gold could go towards its 200 DMA on the 'daily'. This could mean further downside but one will have to monitor the price action to find out. There is no magic answer or crystal ball prediction. None of us can tell the future. 

    1069031898_SpotGold_20190419_08_22.thumb.png.cccde0148bb121e1ca57efcf245d8776.png

    Timing in relation to entry and exit points can be very important. One must remember you are not going to get into a trade at the lowest price point to go long and sell at the highest price point unless you have magical and mystical powers. 

    One must set your timeframe that you wish to trade. One must trade with the trend and not against it. One must trade based on current price action. As you can see from the chart above that the current price action is downwards which to me means 'short' trade. This could change very quickly but there is nothing on the chart above that tells me to go 'long' right now. 


  10. In my personal opinion, I think the longer Bitcoin can stay in this current trading range above $5k then the stronger any future upward move will be. There is the possibility that Bitcoin could trade in this range for a while with lots of 'sideways activity' so potential traders will need to bear this possible scenario in mind.


  11. Could the Easter weekend bring a bumper dose of price action for Bitcoin et al?

    Prices are looking solid going into this long weekend including Good Friday, Easter Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday. There could be a lot of interesting price action. Some of the best gains can come when one least expects. I suppose the same is true of the reverse in terms of losses!


  12. I thought this article was rather relevant to this thread. 

    EU sugar rises as regional market tightens, world prices languish

    https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/tillage/eu-sugar-rises-as-regional-market-tightens-world-prices-languish-37992854.html

    The last paragraph in the article is rather interesting from a 'Fundamental Perspective'. 

    Analysts expect the global sugar market to record a deficit of 1.9 million tonnes in 2019/20, but following years of surplus, stockpiles are plentiful, keeping prices stubbornly range-bound near decade lows.


  13. Gold's price action is very negative. This is an ideal scenario for shorting it in a short term basis. I think Gold will have further to fall. I include a chart below for illustrate this point.

    1612173731_SpotGold_20190418_07_29.thumb.png.a220f0a351bb8337cb27dcd33c8389ec.png

    I do not envisage Gold going below $1200 but there is the risk of it falling below $1250. This could attract a new wave of buying pressure due to traders and investors thinking they are getting good value. 


  14. Bitcoin hit $5320 overnight. 

    As time moves forward the 52 week high for Bitcoin will decline. To illustrate the point based on today's current prices Bitcoin's 52 week high would be close to $10k. Now it simply is not going to hit that either this month or next month. However, if its 52 week high was say $6k then it is more likely to hit than on speculative capital, herd behaviour, trend followers, etc. 

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