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TrendFollower

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TrendFollower last won the day on September 28

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  1. TrendFollower

    Superdry

    The £10m profit warning was not unexpected. This news was out there most probably in the inner circles of the city. The price action tells us a story. Normally there is a reason behind the story. The smart money exits well before this story hits the media. By the time the story hits the media new investors seeking value investment opportunities are sitting on losses as they have invested without a trend reversal confirmation. As they say never buy a 'falling knife'.
  2. TrendFollower

    Time for a cup of Arabica Coffee!

    @Demoni1, I have posted some links which you may wish to look at. This includes fees and charges for speadbetting commodities on IG's platform. https://www.ig.com/usermanagement/customeragreements?igCompany=iggb&agreementType=costs_and_charges&locale=en_GB https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-betting-and-cfds/fees-and-charges/what-are-igs-commodities-spread-bet-product-details https://a.c-dn.net/c/content/dam/publicsites/1532696440757/igcom/uk/files/account/180725_IGI_UK_Margin_Rates_Commodities_Retail.pdf
  3. TrendFollower

    Time for a cup of Arabica Coffee!

    Coffee - New York (Arabica) is beginning to look very interesting and one may want to consider entering a long trade. It is trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. I have included the current chart below from IG. It seems that prices may have bottomed. There is a clear uptrend in play. For me some of the best trades are when one spots the breakout early and enters the trade before the media start reporting and jumping on the bandwagon.
  4. @JamesIG, Thank you for this opportunity. It is very much appreciated. I have an interest, as a company I have shares in (Vela Technologies PLC) has a stake in this business. However I have just looked at the significant shareholders list on Argo's website and they do not make the list so their stake must be very small. What surprised me is that the likes of Miton Asset Management, Janus Henderson Investors and Jupiter Asset Management have taken significant stakes. These could be for their micro / small cap funds or their technology funds, not sure. (Q1) Are they able to confirm which? (Q2) Where do Vela Technologies PLC fit into their shareholder base? Below is from the most recent RNS from Vela on Argo: On Admission Vela will own 2,500,000 shares in Argo representing 0.85 per cent. of Argo's enlarged share capital. At the placing price of 16 pence per share Vela's holding in Argo will be valued at £400,000. Vela originally subscribed for 2,500,000 shares in Argo in February 2018 at a price of 8 pence per share for a consideration of £200,000 as part of a £2.5 million pre-IPO fundraise. Below is the link from Argo's website today of their significant shareholders: https://www.argomining.co/significant-shareholders I am a bit confused. (Q3) Every time I look at the Argo website to see the mining packages they are sold out. This is extremely frustrating. Surely demand should have been taken into account before offering such a proposition to the market? What research was done prior to this as constantly sold out though is positive will only count for anything if some serious profit and financial results are reported at end of year. This was announced a few days ago on Proactive Investors. I hope something new is offered with the interview with IG. https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/206856/argo-blockchain-to-add-bitcoin-to-mining-platform-206856.html (Q4) Have IG approached Argo or have Argo approached IG? Who pays who for this interview? This is more of an internal question. (Q5) Going forwards what other Cryptocurrencies are going to be available? (Q6) Is it possible that Argo will be able to offer Crypto Wallet facilities like Abra and Coinbase in the future? (Q7) What valuation targets have Argo set themselves? Are they looking to be acquired by a 'bigger fish' or do they have ambitions to be the 'bigger fish'? (Q8) Are there likely to be any acquisitions in the future that could enhance their proposition? (Q9) What is their strategy to be able to cope with the demand so that they can maximise revenues? Right now they cannot meet demand which means they are losing sales and revenue. This is not good. (Q10) What revenue and sales targets have they set themselves? How do they intend to increase sales and revenues year on year? This is what the market and investors (especially retail institutions) look for. What were the reasons why the likes of Miton, Janus Henderson and Jupiter bought in? This is an extremely high risk business listed on AIM (known for 90% of the companies listed being poor investments). (Q11) In my opinion for Argo to succeed it will need strong leadership, ability to raise capital whilst demonstrating a rising share price and management being able to execute a clear and sound strategy. There is 'execution risk' and it will require competent personnel. Are there any thoughts of recruiting some 'heavyweights' in the industry to really drive the company forward? @JamesIG, I could go on and on but will give others a chance as well! 😀
  5. TrendFollower

    Carbon Emissions

    The short trade is on for Carbon Emissions. It may go up over the long term but for now a short trade could be profitable. It is currently trading below its 20 and 50 day moving averages and very near its 100 day moving average. One must remember that if this short trade is successful then it will go down far quicker than the 12 month period it was in an uptrend. It will take a fraction of this timescale. I have included the chart below as of today.
  6. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin Breakout

    Thanks for this. It seems Cryptos are mainly blue at the moment but that long term downward bias is still there. It will be interesting to see how they react later on in the day and evening.
  7. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin Breakout

    At 5:00 am it was normal price action. That was quick!
  8. TrendFollower

    Gold & Silver in a LT rally

    @Mercury, yes I did mean $1225. You have used £ instead of $. From an economic perspective there is one factor that could give the 'backdrop story' behind any rise in Gold prices. This is inflationary pressures. Inflation is already spiking but trade tariffs and other factors could accelerate the inflationary process going forward. Staying with the economics perspective, the US's national debt is humungous. The Federal Reserve could try and inflate it away, I can't see any other way that it is going to decline! From a technical perspective and I just looked at the monthly chart on IG then it does look in favour of your comments. I have included the monthly IG chart below. On a monthly view Gold is trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. What is interesting is that when you switch to the daily view on IG then it is trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. This is where timeframes are important.
  9. TrendFollower

    Orange Juice futures - Hurricane Michael

    Again at the time of writing Orange Juice is down 35.3 points and down by 0.25%. Bearing in mind this was one of the worst hurricanes to hit Florida then the price action is quite interesting. The clue was the lack of any trend reversal or build up from the news weeks ago on this hurricane. It kind of indicated that the price would not behave the same as prior to Hurricane Irma hitting Florida. What are your thoughts on this @Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG?
  10. TrendFollower

    Gold & Silver in a LT rally

    @Mercury, Gold at the time of writing this post is $1125. So it has pushed through your target of $1220. Yes, I think you are possibly right in that USD weakness may well lift Gold. However, I do feel that for Gold to really flex its muscles in terms of price action then we will need to see a large drop in equities. Otherwise Gold may well flirt with $1400 and then come down to $1200 and there will be a lot of sideways consolidation and range bound activity. Silver is generally view as Gold on Steroids. The charts show Silver to be behind Gold at the moment. I remember Silver's run up to $50 and using leverage to increase my profits during that period. If Gold does go on a run then Silver should amplify any of Gold's price action during the same period. The price action of Silver will be worth keeping an eye on.
  11. TrendFollower

    MyIG unavailable

    @WarrenMunger, I must admit I have had this message today around lunch time. I don't know if it was down or just my web browser or computer.
  12. TrendFollower

    Gold & Silver in a LT rally

    Gold hit $1205 and went above $1200. It needs to stay above the psychological $1200 level. If equities were truly heading for a 'full blown' bear market then I would have expected Gold have a far bigger price reaction that it has shown. However that may well change once the US wakes up!
  13. TrendFollower

    bitcoin long period of consolidation

    @cryptotrader, yes I would agree that at this moment in time Bitcoin is not behaving like a safe haven. I agree with @Mercury that the asset class is far too small compared to precious metals, bonds, etc. I envisage Bitcoin in the future becoming a digital store of value (Digital Gold). There is a long way to go and many years before this can happen. Cryptocurrency as an asset class along with Bitcoin needs to grow a **** of a lot. This may not happen but is something I envisage could happen in the future. I have seen such drops in Bitcoin many times now. It is not something that worries me. Yes, Bitcoin could drop to $5000, $3000 or even $1000. It is possible. It will be interesting to see how Bitcoin reacts should the SEC approve a Bitcoin ETF in the US or say India becomes more positive on Cryptocurrencies. I am still positive on Cryptocurrencies (not all of them by the way), Blockchain the technology behind it which is gathering momentum outside of the Crypto Universe, Tokenisation (Tokenomics) and this whole arena. The junk will fail and go to zero. Absolutely and so it should. Only quality will survive. I do agree with some of the comments by Mercury in a previous post. As an asset class it is peanuts compared to Equities, Bonds, etc so I accept the point that it cannot even attempt to replace Gold as a safe haven now or even in the next couple of years.
  14. TrendFollower

    CFD vs Spead Betting

    @RichB-Trader, No problem. It is not the CFD or Spread Betting that is the main risk but the asset you are trading, the capital that your are allocating to your positions, market conditions, current trends, trading strategies and your personal trading psychology and mind-set. These are what make up the 'risk conditions'. CFD or Spread Betting is merely the instrument you are going to use to trade your chosen asset. Your risk management will be crucial. Are you going to set stop losses? If so then at what level? How are you going to determine entry position? How are you going to determine what asset to trade? Do you have a trading plan? What is the trading style you are going to adopt? How do you intend to execute your strategy in order to meet your trading objectives? These are just some of the things you may wish to consider before making your decision. Only you can make these decisions. It will require some time, hard work, research and discipline but will assist you in building a strong foundation for your future trading experiences.
  15. TrendFollower

    Orange Juice futures - Hurricane Michael

    If one looks at today's price action for Orange Juice then it went up 58.1 points and 0.41%. I remember trading Orange Juice prior to the Hurricane Irma as the trend had already started well before the Irma hit Florida. This is different so far!
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