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TrendFollower

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TrendFollower last won the day on October 6

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  1. Now look at the drop in volume as the trend begins to weaken and the price starts showing potential to decline on the 'daily'. Another potential warning signal that after this consolidation period the price could decline. Of course if there is positive spin, sorry I meant positive news then the could make another move upwards. This is one the cards but it will be all down to how many buyers are left. Based on price action and now volume and I think the chances of the price declining are more likely.
  2. @dmedin, 👍 I think you are making a wise choice looking at 'daily' charts and cutting down the amount you trade. I think based on what you have shared you are right to do so. I think you should have done this a lot earlier. Now this should reduce your losses. What you need to do is now be more selective with the trade. I would suggest only trading the asset which is trending strongly based on indicators you think if align will give you a better / greater chance of success. Of course no guarantee but you want to tilt the odds in your favour as much as possible. If you can find certain indicators if when they occur on one of the stronger trending assets then this will help to increase your probability. Again no guarantees but I think this will certainly help you. See how it goes. Just be more strict in choosing the trades. Also have a think about how much capital you are going to allocate on the trades and how much you are going to risk. This will depend on your risk tolerance but you need to be clear on this. Also think about entry and exit rules. Most important have patience and you will require discipline. 👏 I think you have made the right choice and it was a long time coming but you got there in the end. Now your real journey begins.
  3. @JamesIG, I am not questioning IG’s business practices. I am stating that IG’s client is not able to short Beyond Meat. This means they can only trade it on the long side. Now if the trend reverses on this particular share and the trader cannot short it on IG’s platform then the odds are stacked against the trader from potentially profiting from a move downwards. The probability and odds decline for the trader. Ok so this may not be in the favour of IG based on your answer so I apologise and take that back I still stand the odds being against the trader for this specific stock should the price decline and IG do not offer the client the option of shorting it. If I have misunderstood anything then please accept my apologies or if you could explain how the odds would not decline for the trader in this example.
  4. Part IV: Potential Fund Platforms to Consider: There are several platforms to consider for fund investing. I shall start with the platform that I personally have used for many years now and that is Fidelity. They have a FundsNetwork with thousands of funds available. Others are: Hargreaves Lansdown (I personally use this for shares, investment trusts and ETF's). Interactive Investor iWeb AJ Bell Equinti Selftrade (I personally use this for my SIPP) Cavendish Online Charles Stanley Direct There are many different providers. You need to look at which platform offers the types of funds you are looking for in your portfolio as in the variety and choice. You need to look at costs and fees associated with using that broker. Then there is the customer service and quality of their online platform and ease of use. You may want to consider if they offer ISA's, Junior ISA's, SIPP's, Junior SIPP's and other things of importance to you. Each investor will have their own personal preference and a level of loyalty too. There is not right answer to this question. It is what platform is best for you. Finally, IG offer ISA's and Fund Investing via their Smart Portfolio's. These are based on ETF's but could be worth a look for some of you who are looking for simplicity. https://www.ig.com/uk/investments/smart-portfolios Part V: How Long To Hold - Coming Soon:
  5. When adopting trend following principles it is not necessary to trade for the sake of trading. One can simply wait for the right trend or trading opportunity. I like to wait for the 'Strongest Trending Assets' opportunity and if I can identify them as early as possible by watching the price action then I like to try and trade them either 'long' or 'short' depending on the directional movement. One of the problems traders get into is the need to constantly trade when there is simply not a trading opportunity there where the 'odds and probability' are stacked more in your favour. I do not trade daily or weekly. I may only place say ten trades a year and sometimes more or sometimes less but they will be when I think the 'odds and probability' are more in my favour and the chances of success are greater because the trending action on a particular asset is so strong. My trade could last days, weeks or even months but I set no time limit or profit goal. There is nothing complex in my trading strategy, trading style or trading philosophy. It is heavily inspired by and based on historical trend following strategies that are out there and available for all to research. I have not created anything new or invented anything of significance. I am merely trying to identify the strongest trending asset with a view to trading it in the direction it is moving in with a chance to profit from that movement.
  6. Your trading plan should include something different than what everyone else is doing. That uniqueness which gives you an edge over other traders. I would like to take this opportunity to quote Sir John Templeton (below): If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd. The trading plan does not need to be complex. In fact the simpler the better. Articulate things in 'Simple', 'Plain' and 'Clear' English. As Warren Buffett once said: The business schools reward difficult complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective.
  7. So the trend is finally weakening for Beyond Meat! It was a matter of time. It is trading below its 20, 50 and 100 DMA. For me this is a short as the company is loss making and the valuation is absurd on any metric. What a surprise that this is not available for shorting on IG's platform via UK Spread Betting. This is one example of how the odds are stacked against the trader and in favour of the broker. The trader cannot trade 'long' or 'short' when it chooses to do so. It can only do so if IG make that particular function available at a given time and if it does not then that option is not available for the retail trader using their platform.
  8. Let's just say that Bitcoin now tumbled down to $7k or even $5k. Those who have been following Bitcoin over the past many years have seen such falls constantly. The way Bitcoin operates it would still be capable of making a new all time high from that position. It is not impossible in my view that Bitcoin can be amended, upgraded and improved to make it an even stronger and better asset. If this were to happen and there are some extremely clever minds at work on this then would it not stop Bitcoin crashing to zero? This is where an understanding of the underlying technology behind Bitcoin, Blockchain, comes in. I just simply do not see Bitcoin crashing to zero this year or next year. If it does then I will be wrong and I am fine with that. Too many large organisations are now getting involved with Bitcoin who had not say 3 years ago or even 5 years ago. I think many others will join the journey so this Christmas 2019 should be an interesting one.
  9. I have discussed having a 'edge' in your trading system and this has also been discussed by others so I will not go over old ground or repeat this. I write a lot of about 'odds and probability' in my threads and posts. I am not a mathematician but understanding that trading requires the acceptance and understanding of odds and probability in my personal opinion is vital. For me having a trading edge is simply having the ability to have a higher probability or greater odds of being right over being wrong in a trade. I appreciate it will mean different things to different traders but to me having that something in your trading system which resembles an edge is extremely difficult. Many traders think they have an edge when in fact they do not. Others do not accept that they need an edge. There are those who will never have an edge. It can take many years for a retail investor to get an edge in their trading system.
  10. I think Bitcoin needs to go above $10k and every day it now remains below $10k given an increase in the chance that the next big move is downwards. This is based on my personal experience, gut feeling and instinct. One needs to see Bitcoin aggressively drive past $10k for there to be this 'big' move some of us are expecting (including me) that will take Bitcoin above its all time high before it comes crashing back down.
  11. For me, Bitcoin, is a high risk asset to trade. There is no doubt about it. It is not for the feint hearted. You do not have to believe that Bitcoin is good or that it is going to succeed. You are merely looking at profiting from the price movement. If you can be on the right directional side of the trade then this will increase your chances of profiting from the price movement in Bitcoin. In another words, trade Bitcoin using some form of trend following. I want to trade in the direction of the Cryptocurrency market in general. This can be either 'long' or 'short'. This simply gives you an advantage as far as I am concerned. Don't worry about whether the Bitcoin price is absurd or the value of Bitcoin or another of Cryptocurrency for that matter. It may well be over hyped and full of speculative capital but one does not need to get bogged down in those arguments. Now for Bitcoin I tend to use the 'daily' timeframe. This is well documented in most of my threads and posts. That is the timeframe I prefer based on my own trading style but you must make your own decisions based on your own trading styles. The other thing I do is monitor the price action of Bitcoin on a daily basis. I try and live and breathe the asset. That is important so that you are in tune with the asset and the type of news that makes it go up and the type of news that makes it go down. The risk is that Bitcoin can move without any news in either direction which is why it is such a risky asset to trade. Now I use moving averages but these are time lagging indicators so one must understand this. One can complicate trading Bitcoin but I try and keep it simple. By looking at trend lines one can clearly identify the path Bitcoin has the potential of taking. One can then look at breakouts which are strong around these trend lines. There is no guarantee that using such a strategy will result in 100% correct trades but that is not possible regardless of the trading strategy one adopts. I am merely presenting a simple trend following style that one could consider and do more work on themselves to give them a chance of succeeding in trading Bitcoin. Of course there are many ways to skin a cat but this thread is in relation to trading Bitcoin using Trend Following techniques. It is one of many ways in which to trade Bitcoin and you need to make up your own mind which is better for you. This in my opinion will be one of the less complex and more simpler ways to trade Bitcoin.
  12. Blockchain is being used more and more in supply chain and traceability problems. From the reading I am conducting, Blockchain, is trying to solve these problems and issues. It is well documented that there is implementation of Blockchain technology when it comes to the production and movement of Diamonds. De Beers has been instrumental in this area. This can be applied in food, drink and high value items. For food, IBM, has played a leading role. In my opinion there are two key issues that one must consider when looking at applying Blockchain technology to say commodities and its supply chains. One is the need to establish trust amongst different companies that could be anywhere in the world. They may not even speak to the same language and it may be totally different cultures involved when conducting business. The other is to manage securely large amounts of sensitive data. Blockchain can and is being used effectively in both of these areas. Yes it is small and yes it is slow but great things come to those who wait. Patience is required.
  13. New Bitcoin Trading Indicator Named After Iconic Trader Signals Buy https://www.businesstelegraph.co.uk/new-bitcoin-trading-indicator-named-after-iconic-trader-signals-buy-newsbtc/ I will be interested to see how this plays out. I shall be watching. There are no guarantees of course but again excellent learning for anyone interested to see if a strong reversal comes in Bitcoin as predicted.
  14. I am sure many of you will have heard of, come across or even use the 'Parabolic SAR'. Ideally you want to see the price above the green dots and the green dots above the red dots. Now there is a new technical indicator for Bitcoin called the 'Peterbolilc SAR'. This has been coined after the famous Peter Brandt.
  15. Personal View on Bitcoin - At Present (This may well change as time passes) The problem I have with Bitcoin is that I can see it making a play towards its all time high based on a historical pattern of halving events and limited supply arguments. However, such is the nature of Bitcoin that I can all see it come crashing down also based on historical patterns and lack of appreciation, value and understanding. Speculation is rife in this asset class and for Bitcoin specifically. It is speculation that will drive prices down sharp and quickly. One of the things that would change my mind is if there was serious regulation in the US and UK in relation to Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies. Another is if India changed its stance on Bitcoin. One important thing could be if the US approved a Bitcoin ETF. These things would change the landscape for Bitcoin to change historical patterns which have played out in a similar fashion. Until this happens I fear we could see similar patterns playing out in the future. I think Bitcoin is going to make a play for $20k. I have no idea if it will exceed but it could easily do so. Once we are closer to the halving event then I see large profits being taken and a massive drop coming in Bitcoin because there will be a long time before there is another halving event. The only thing that could change this is if any of the things in the above paragraph in blue happened. If not then I see a major downside move in Bitcoin.
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