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TrendFollower

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  1. @dmedin, I don't know the answer but there may be others on the IG Community that are more knowledgable than me or even use EWT both successfully and are hugely profitable applying it. They may be aware of certain assets where the probabilities of using EWT are in their favour due to confirmed historical evidence. There may well be evidence that certain assets adhere to EWT more than others on a historical basis. Of course that does not guarantee that the assets will do so in the future but it just increases the odds and the likelihood of it occurring again. Just because I don't have the knowledge or evidence does not mean such assets do not exist where the application of EWT would be greatly increase your chances of successful and profitable trades. I personally do not use or apply EWT to my trading and it has not hindered me. I would be interested in knowing which assets adhere to EWT more than others and what the percentages are. For example are there any assets which adhere to EWT historically over 70%? Let us put Natural Gas to one side for the moment as I personally think due to the extreme volatility you would have to be a supreme EWT technician to be able to consistently make profitable trades on Natural Gas using EWT. If you put NG to one side then are there any other assets which say adhere to EWT historically from say 50% - 70% of the time? I do not know the answer but if anyone does know then it would be very interesting and helpful to the IG Community, especially for those who are genuinely interested in EWT and applying it to their trading. Also for those assets which say do adhere to EWT over 50% of the time how does a trader know that it will so on the next trend, next move up or down, etc? How does one establish apart from a failed trade after the event on whether the asset is going to adhere to EWT?
  2. I think one of the things a trader can do is look at how often Elliott Wave Principles can be seen on a specific asset. So for example once this information can be established then one can begin to consider odds and probabilities. So for me the key would be to find an asset where it can be clearly evidenced that EWT could have been applied to any trading decision which would have led to profitable trades. The higher this percentage figure the better. So Natural Gas apparently (I do not know this for sure) has around a 72% historical EWT count. Now if this is true then the odds and probabilities would be in your favour over a period of time if you applied EWT. However, if you choose an asset where the percentage is say 20% then it would not be wise to trade this using EWT unless you could accurately know when EWT could be used and avoid when not to trade the asset using EWT. I am just going to share a few articles to offer a balanced view on Elliott Wave Principles. Please remember these are not my views and are the authors views. I am merely sharing on this thread as they are related to the thread title. https://steemit.com/backwards-thinking/@greer184/the-cult-of-the-elliott-waves Elliott Wave Hype Is Poison for Traders https://www.turtletrader.com/elliott/ Elliott Wave Junk Sucks in the Gullible https://www.turtletrader.com/wavejunk/ I personally do not use EWT in my trading but that does not mean that there is not merit in using it. It can be extremely complex and understanding and talking about EWT is one thing but actually applying it on a consistent basis and profiting from it is another. The key question is establishing which assets demonstrate the use of EWT would have led to successful and profitable trades say over the past 10 years? If anyone knows the answers as to which assets these are and what the percentages are then this is the thread to share it.
  3. India 50 is still holding firm and still trying to attempt to make a new high. I think we will find out in the coming weeks and months if it does or not. I think if US indices continue going up then I see other emerging market indices following suit. If US indices were to take a tumble then I fear emerging market indices may experience a 'greater' tumble.
  4. I found this to be a very interesting article relevant not only to this thread but my personal belief in Blockchain technology. Blockchain & the Changing Face of Frontier Markets https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/blockchain-the-changing-face-of-frontier-markets-201912092305
  5. Have a look at this white paper from Oracle on the very subject area of this thread. How IoT, AI, and blockchain will revolutionize business. http://www.oracle.com/us/solutions/cloud/tt-technologies-white-paper-4498079.pdf
  6. Not all investors have access to or the ability or wealth to purchase properties in the most sought after area with the highest price increases. However, most investors do have access to and the ability to invest (however small) in investment funds in the best performing themes and areas. If an investor can ensure that they are invested in those areas / themes which are the better performing and switch accordingly when better performing themes emerge then this can seriously and significantly increase their investment portfolio performance and create wealth over a period of time. For those who do not invest but want to trade I would urge them to consider investing first. I would urge them to build a solid investment portfolio which is profitable year after year and then consider trading but not before. Of course this is my personal view and many others may not agree which is fine but I strongly think one must be able to profit from investing before they even try and profit from trading and not the other way around.
  7. How does your trading plan combat or deal with volatility? This is something that traders must consider. Volatility can be embraced but that is if your trading strategy requires or demands it. If it does not then what is included in your trading plan to ensure your risk management is robust enough to cope with unexpected or expected volatility?
  8. Cocoa London has reacted to the opposite of how I expected. It has been downtrending for the past month as the chart below shows and has been a great 'shorting' opportunity.
  9. So what is trending strongly at the moment? Palladium is one asset which has been trending strongly to the upside. Of course the trend can reverse at any time but it is certainly one to monitor the price action on. There is also the risk that many traders may have missed the majority of the upside so that risk exists. Arabica Coffee not London Robusta has been trending strongly to the upside. It is not clear whether this will manifest itself into a longer term trend or whether it is short term speculation but one may want to monitor its price action for clues. Cocoa London is trending downwards. There is a clear shorting opportunity here. Crude Palm Oil has been trending very nicely upwards. Sometimes the best trends are those which not many are aware of or trading. They quietly go about their business whilst other traders are trying to trade the established and well known assets. They are not always the best performing. Soybean Oil has been trending upwards too. It has made a series or 'Higher Highs' and 'Lower Lows' and though it has been a bit choppy due to volatility, it has sustained an upward trend. Live Cattle is another one which has seen impressive price action to the upside. The chart tells the story for all to see.
  10. There you go a nice quick and sharp correction arrives! Now the question is how low Arabica Coffee will correct. It is possible that it is a short and small correction or it could go down towards 12000 - 12500. In my personal opinion for there to be a longer term trend in Arabica Coffee I would need to see a series of 'Higher Lows' and 'Higher Highs' being formed. Without this I fear it could be a speculative capital move.
  11. My view has still not changed. I am expecting a 'Short' trading opportunity here in Live Cattle once its upward move has completed. Before this happens I want to see confirmation that the upward trend is weakening and the reversal is beginning.
  12. Arabica Coffee is beginning to look like a 'Parabolic Rise'. I do expect at some point a very quick and sharp correction. Fundamentals are looking strong and are supporting the price rise in Coffee. There is a narrative underpinning this move. There is a credible backdrop. However, be prepared for any price drop which could be larger than normal due to the rise in price we have seen.
  13. With phase 1 of the US-China Trade deal looking like being agreed it seems Copper is looking bullish.
  14. Both New York and London Sugar prices are rising. It is being reported that the Sugar market will return to deficit in the 19/20 season. However any potential upside may be capped depending on India's Sugar production. Right now the price action is bullish and 'Soft Commodities' in general are trending upwards.
  15. Arabica Coffee has hit 13413 very aggressively. Breakout is ON. Trend is STRONG. 'Long' trade is not WRONG. London Robusta is now playing catch up. So those ultra aggressive traders would be 'long' both Arabica and Robusta Coffee using leverage to maximise profits (albeit with increased risk).
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