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TrendFollower last won the day on March 22

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  1. Oh dear. I see a 'red flag' here for sure. Coinsilium Group Limited Investee Company Update: Factom Inc. https://www.investegate.co.uk/coinsilium-group-limited--coin-/eqs/investee-company-update--factom-inc-/20200402131843EIFMB/ Coinsilium's interest in Factom is by way of 150,000 Series Seed shares and 73,291 A-1 preferred shares valued at £236,776 on 30 June 2019. So the first red flag was the share price declining. The second red flag is this news. The question is whether there are more companies which Coinsilium invested in which are going to be struggling for investment and finance? The chances are yes there are.
  2. @HPbrand, Long term the charts are supporting your view of bearish /negative when you look at the 'Monthly' and 'Weekly' charts for Bitcoin. Of course this can change but right now they support your view. However, that does not mean shorter term Bitcoin could not rally like it is right now since hitting $3.8k a few weeks back. Majority of the tokens are utter garbage. In fact 90% of them are worthless and will fail. That I have little doubt about. There are however a few tokens which offer very compelling reasoning in terms of their creation and the impact they could have on particular areas. I will not go into that here but I have a thread on 'Tokenisation' which will explain some of these so little point in repeating in this thread. From a trading perspective your third paragraph does not make sense. If you trade based on technical indicators and signals and they point towards Bitcoin going down to zero then for heavens sake short this asset and make money. Surely trading is all about making money. If you can maximise how much you can make per point movement and use effective leverage if you want to then to me it does not matter if Bitcoin is going to zero. If you are that sure then short it. Why wouldn't you? If Governments were going to close Bitcoin et al then they would have done so. In fact the evidence demonstrates that Governments worldwide are embracing it and will adopt it in some form with legislation and tax rules being brought in to deal with Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies. By all means wait and patiently be shown otherwise but just read about how India overturned their Bitcoin ban recently. Read about the US and UK bringing in guidance in relation to Crypto Assets. Just have a look at Gibraltar and the infrastructure there. I haven't even mentioned Asia and how China / Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, South Korea are all embracing Cryptocurrencies. I am not saying it will be Bitcoin that makes it. The simple truth is I don't know but the future is digital and digital currencies are coming. Central Governments are working on this as we speak and as I write. If what I am hearing is correct, it is a race to see which country releases their digital currency backed by Central Government first. Now although this is different to 'Decentralised Cryptocurrencies' it will shape the future of money / transactions / cross border payments / movement of assets, etc.
  3. @shyans, I suppose it depends on whether you mean 'long' only or 'short' as well?
  4. @HPbrand, The long term value of Bitcoin is what ever the world deems necessary. What this is I do not know. In terms of chances that Bitcoin goes to zero or pushed to zero is low in my personal view. If it was going to have failed and crashed then it would have done so after the parabolic and insane $20k price spike. I am not saying it cannot go to zero if something better comes along but until that happens I do not see Bitcoin going to 0 anytime soon. I find that the more you read on Crypto and learn about it, understand it better the less you will become sceptical about it. I could argue that I am sceptical of something which is inside of Government control. Are the politicians in power any more wiser or intelligent than other people in society? I find the brightest minds do not work for Government. They want to be paid handsomely and therefore you will find the most intellectual beings working for the private sector or for themselves (self employed). If you are trading based on price action then you need to remove your personal emotions about Crypto and your personal views about it and just trade based on price action and use the same signals / indicators you would for any other asset such as Commodities, Indices, etc. Some of the books which I read which really changed my thinking on Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain were: Digital Gold (The Untold Story of Bitcoin) by Nathaniel Popper Blockchain (Blueprint for a New Economy) by Melanie Swan The Business Blockchain by William Mougayar Blockchain Revolution by Don Tapscott and Alex Tapscott The Book of Satoshi (The Collected Writings of Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto) by Phil Champagne Cryptoassets (The Innovative Investors Guide to Bitcoin and Beyond) by Chris Burniske and Jack Tatar If you get a chance then read some of these books if not all. This will increase your knowledge of the area rather than relying on media garbage that gets spurned out by journalists who know very little about the subject area. These books really opened up my mind and gave me information that helped me to understand Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain better. Now acquiring knowledge and trading Cryptocurrencies are two different things. This is where a lot of people are letting their personal opinions, emotions and views get in the way of their trading decisions. If at any given time Cryptos are the 'Strongest Trending Assets' either on the 'long' side of 'short' side then surely the better traders who want to maximise their profits and achieve the greatest performance possible would seriously consider trading that asset. In my view they would do so using the same trading plan, trading strategy and trading system they use for any other asset. This is where a lot of people let their personal views cloud their trading judgement.
  5. Some of the better performing funds recently have been the likes Baillie Gifford American and Polar Capital Technology to name a few but there have been many others. There are many funds which have performed remarkably well from a capital growth perspective with impressive 'annualised returns'. If you are a long term investor and you are not approaching retirement any time soon then there is absolutely no need to 'panic sell'. In fact in times like this as an investor it is your chance to 'accumulate' more units in funds at cheaper prices. This is an opportunity and growth investors must see it as that rather than be fearful of any market drops / corrections.
  6. The one thing I have noticed recently during the 'Corona' period is that Silver tends to set the direction which Gold seems to follow. So look at Silver's daily chart today (below): Now lets look at Gold's daily chart below: It will be interesting to see if Gold follows Silver's 'Green Bar' scenario later on today or not.
  7. If the 'play' I have highlighted above does not materialise then it will confirm a bottom for now. Markets can react differently to how the media portrays the situation. I accept there is likely to be more bad news which will be released in the coming days and weeks. The question is how much of this has already been priced into the markets? The rest of the world are invested in US markets. If the US markets crash then it will have a severe domino effect across the globe. The US Government will do everything it can (hence throwing trillions of dollars at problems) to try and ensure the US markets do not crash. If the US Government succeeds then markets may continue going up after the Coronavirus situation has calmed down. If the world loses confidence in this scenario then boy could there be a mammoth drop coming. This is the risk that we face. It is not clear one way or the other at the moment as the market moves one way and then another on a daily basis and even throughout the day. All eyes will be on economic data. Should the US experience a severe recession then this backdrop will be enough in my opinion to send markets crashing further.
  8. The 'Sentiment' and 'Risk On/Off' is changing daily. It is this which is causing extreme volatility. Just look at the 'Volatility Index' which you can trade on IG's platform.
  9. When you look at the data you can see that Bitcoin is trading more or less in a range between $6.1k to around $6.6k. Bitcoin has closed a 'Gap' in CME Group’s futures which had opened up over the weekend. This is something I have mentioned in my previous posts and the percentages are quite high for Bitcoin doing this. Of course there are absolutely no guarantees that it will but the statistics are in favour of it doing so. If we are going to see a trend materialise on the 'long' side for Bitcoin that takes out its previous all time high of around $20k then we should see it in the next 12 months or so. If not then it will be worrying times for Bitcoin and the 'Slow Death' narrative could play out. All one can do is monitor the price action and look for any clues. Identifying and breakouts and any strong trend manifestations will be crucial as early as possible. There is some resistance around the $7.6k but it will need to surpass this to cross its 50 DMA on the daily. It has crossed its 20 DMA on the daily. This is the next signal / indicator that will offer a clue in relation to the future direction for Bitcoin.
  10. So Bitcoin's 'halving' is next month. I have to admit the Bitcoin price bar the dip to around $3.8k during Coronavirus panic mania has held up rather robustly in my view. When you look at the data and evidence from Q1 it seems Bitcoin has actually outperformed Equities in general. Bitcoin declined from the start of Q1 to where it ended up but Equities overall declined far more especially when taking into account the Coronavirus (Panic Mania) on markets. The longer term trend is still rather worrying for me when looking at Bitcoin on the 'Monthly' and 'Weekly' charts. This does concern me and I suppose it will continue concerning me unless after the 'halving event' in May 2020 Bitcoin begins to change the longer terms trends.
  11. @Gregbbb, Not on IG as far as I am aware. You can try having a look at WiseAlpha. Disclaimer: I have an equity stake and am a shareholder in WiseAlpha.
  12. @Pike, IG don't always have the options which suit us. You could try and just 'sell' the normal ETF's? The amount of leverage you use is up to you.
  13. @Pike, Have a look at this available on IG's UK Spread Betting platform. Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Sh AE If you type 'Semiconductor' in the search (magnifying glass) box at the top left side then you will get plenty of options which you can go both 'long' or 'short'.
  14. I appreciate that when real people are LOSING their lives (Coronavirus) it is hard to think like a WINNER. A winning mentality is a must and especially so during times when others are losing their wealth and getting themselves into losing trades. The easiest thing to do is not to trade but those who adopt such measures may not lose any money but they definitely will not make any money/profits from trading. I do not constantly trade as I work full time for a living. I am an investor first and trading is something I do on the side. I wait for those opportunities where I think the trend is likely to be a LONG and STRONG one. If there are no such opportunities in my view then I am more than happy to wait on the sidelines. Overtrading is one of the biggest reasons why so many traders KILL their trading capital so quickly. This is where a trading plan is so important. You should only be trading as per your trading plan but because so many do not even bother then they are not following any trading plan and hence they end up with no trading rules to follow.