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TrendFollower last won the day on February 19

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About TrendFollower

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  1. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @Caseynotes, From a fundamental perspective there will be supply/demand implications. So output from SA is declining. Add uneconomic uncertainty and then price action / trends and you have a 'perfect cocktail / storm' for an aggressive trend and price behaviour upwards. I accept it does not always play out like this due to speculation, contrarian moves and aggressive short selling creating intense volatility but the potential is there for a major move upwards in Gold.
  2. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    It seems Bitcoin is going to go for that psychological $4000 mark which it has failed to break through on the past couple of occasions. The fact that Bitcoin has not dropped and is trying again makes me wonder whether it may do so once the US markets open or overnight and possibly during the weekend. When I used to trade Bitcoin a couple of years ago the amount of big moves that came during the weekend was staggering. It got to a stage where I had to leave a long position open on Friday 10:00 pm to reap the rewards on Sunday night when the market re-opened. The trading times have changed since then but a I noticed quite a few very big moves occurring during the weekend. I do not advise traders to leave positions open overnight or take on such large risk but that is what I had to do as otherwise I was missing all the big weekend moves. Of course it went wrong on a couple of occasions so it was a very high risk play and 'gapping' was a serious issue but I no longer trade Bitcoin in that way anymore.
  3. TrendFollower

    Smart Money - Precious Metals

    Palladium is performing strongly on the upside and has been since August and September 2018. August 2018 was also when the Gold upward journey began. It is all about identifying these breakouts and assessing how strong these trends are by monitoring the price action.
  4. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    The longer the US-China trade talks continue and the longer the matter is unclear and lingers on, the major US markets will not begin a major sell off. This will only happen once the US-China trade deal is confirmed. Up until then there will be plenty of buying, speculation and anticipation driving up US indices at at the very least sideways. The major shorting opportunity that some of us here on IG have been waiting for can only begin once the positive news is out of the way. Still no trend reversal or confirmation via price action to initiate a 'short' trade from a trend following perspective.
  5. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @OceansJess, In terms of trading Gold you may wish to start off by just monitoring the price action of Gold. Just live and breathe the price behaviour of Gold so that you are fully in tune with it. Identify what happens on days it goes down and what drives it to go up. Then try and look at how you would enter and exit such a trade. What would be the better entry points? Look at oscillators and see if you can use them to try and execute better entry points. Also at the same time try and understand the fundamentals for Gold. Understand the supply and demand of the hard metal and the production and mining of Gold. Research Gold's historical performance and establish how it has reacted in the past. This by no means is a guarantee that it will behave the same going forwards but you get a more rounded knowledge on the asset to help you make an informed decision on whether to trade it, invest in it or neither.
  6. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    US indices are looking a bit toppy. The upward trend is looking exhausted and waiting for either positive / negative news. The US indices keep enticing potential short sellers and teasing them but the market is ruthless and its price will behave like one least expects hence why 81% of IG's retail customers lose money when using CFD and Spread Betting Call me cynical but the could the US Federal Reserve keep propping up US markets? They may know what a disastrous outcome it could be if they did not. Everything you need to know about the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet — and how it could impact you https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/federal-reserve-balance-sheet/ The US Federal Reserve is rather vague when it comes to clearly outlining its plan for reducing its balance sheet and ending a decade long QE programme.
  7. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @Caseynotes, yes it was an interesting idea and I could see you logic behind it. There has been a small healthy correction and Gold is trading $1328 at the time of this post which is down from the $1341 levels. I do think there is another leg up to come very soon as US indices are looking a bit 'exhausted' from a trending perspective and they are clearly waiting for news either positive or negative to steer them to their next destination. If the destination is downwards and it is a quick sharp move then I can see Gold providing a quick sharp trend upwards. What is interesting about this particular Gold trend since August 2018 is that it has moved up along with US indices moving upwards albeit a strong drop in this journey. There is a myth that Gold and the US Dollar cannot rise together and that Gold only goes up when the US Dollar is weak. There are instances when both the US Dollar and Gold have risen together and when some of you may want to look at what happened to Gold when this last occurred. I shall leave it at that. Suspense!
  8. TrendFollower

    Trying to transfer ISA out but no response

    @yogitree, I know this sounds obvious but did you actually ring and try and speak to someone at IG? For example customer services? What about messaging them or sending them an e-mail? If all fails then I will copy @JamesIG into this post and see if he may be able to assist. He usually is very good and prompt and if he will not be able to assist then he may know who can.
  9. TrendFollower

    Smart Money - Precious Metals

    At the moment Silver's chart is more similar to Platinum's than Gold's. Gold's chart is more similar to Palladium's than Silver's though Palladium has totally outperformed Gold over the last 12 months.
  10. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @Pikto, When it comes to trading I can only comment on what I am doing. I am trading Gold and Silver on the 'long' side using IG's Spread Betting platform. This allows me to trade them both tax efficiently and with the use of leverage. Once in profit then you can initiate a trailing stop. Silver tends to outperform Gold in a strong bull market in terms of returns but the margin requirements are more attractive on Gold than Silver, especially when Silver tends to follow Gold and Gold generally takes the lead. This is more true when you look at the daily points increase on both. Using leverage on Gold by x2 still makes it cheaper than Silver on x1 if Silver's daily point increase is around 50% more than Gold.
  11. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @OceansJess, No problem. Yes getting familiar with trends is a very good idea. Yes it is tricky. In fact it is very difficult and yes there is a lot to learn. If you put in the effort, have dedication, passion and enthusiasm then it will certainly help you when trying to read, research and learn.
  12. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @Pikto, Investing and trading are both very different. You specifically use the word invest and I do not invest in Gold. In fact I do not like Gold as an asset. The only time I have invested in Gold is over 10 years ago via physical storage through BullionVault. I also invested in many years ago Merryl Lynch Gold & General which then became Blackrock Gold and General and JP Morgan Natural Resources. However, I have not held such investments for many years now. At this moment I am trading both Gold and Silver using IG's Spread Betting account. I am trading them on the 'long' side based on an upward trend and its price action. I cannot recommend any investments in Gold as I do not invest in Gold myself and I feel there are far more better investments to make over a 5, 10 and 20 year period which will outperform any Gold investment. You need to know what your investment timescale is? You need to research the different investment options in Gold and look at the performance variances between them all and conduct a contrast and compare exercise. You need to be clear on what your reasons are for wanting to invest in Gold? Why Gold over other assets and investments? The more riskier play in Gold is small Gold mining companies. I personally do not like them as far too high risk with liquidity issues. There are larger Gold producers that may even pay dividends but again I do not invest in Gold directly so I cannot really suggest any recommendation. It would be like recommending a book that I have not read or a film that I have not watched.
  13. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @Caseynotes, Yes I read that very point this morning. There may be selling after the minutes tonight but equally Silver has not caught up yet so I really do not know. Put it this way if after the minutes Gold and Silver continue rising and do the opposite of what is being reported by various media sources then game on.
  14. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @elle, Excellent post. Totally agree. There is no reason to short either Gold or Silver right now based on price action. There is no bend in the trend which has appeared on this recent upward move. When it does then @Caseynotessuggestion may be worth consideration albeit with slight differing sell and stop.
  15. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    Exhaustion of the upward trend? Or will it simply resume after this pause for breath?