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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @RichB-Trader, The different things a trader looks at depends on their personal trading style and methodology. What one trader looks at may not be relevant to another trader. I think you need a defined trading plan. Your trading plan will tell you what you need to look at and more specifically why. Do you have a trading plan? As failing to plan is a plan to fail! If you do not then I would suggest stopping all live trading until you have come up with a trading plan. You will also need a trading strategy. You must have a trading strategy as otherwise you really are speculating / gambling. You must also have a trading system. Until you have these three things I would not conduct any live trades. That is just my personal opinion but it is your decision to make.
  2. @H2O, Potentially, but in my personal opinion it is far too early to tell for me based on the chart example you have provided.
  3. @RedSwift and @RichB-Trader, When I used to trade UK equities I used to use InvestEgate every morning at 7:00 am to see what RNS's were released. Some of the stocks I used to trade were AIM stocks which move largely on news and I used to day trade these. https://www.investegate.co.uk On AIM stocks if there were positive RNS's which included revenue growth or significant contracts, I would buy in the morning and in the afternoon sell. I would do this daily and it was very profitable for me. These same stocks would crash over the next fews day as 90% of AIM shares were junk and are still junk. This helped me to build up the capital to trade Commodities. Trading on news for nano caps and micro caps can be very lucrative but also very high risk. If you are trading large caps then InvestEgate will provide you with the latest RNS's release by the companies. I found this very useful.
  4. @RichB-Trader, Ok. I only invest in equities and do not tend to trade them. Do you trade UK equities, US equities, Asian equities or European equities? Or all of them? The other consideration is whether you trade large cap, mid cap or small caps? I have historically trades equities such as banks, etc. What I used to do is just focus on a few specific equities and just trade them. Obviously due to time constraints I have focussed mainly on Commodities and Cryptocurrencies. Commodities more so. With equities do you look at the fundamentals of the company? Or do you just trade on technicals or a combination of both? If you put news to one side then are you trading strong trending equities which have volatility? How do you select which equities to trade? When I used to trade equities I basically only focussed on a few equities I had identified which were trending either long or short, the volume was supporting the price action and volatility existed. I only focussed on a few so that I could live and breathe those stocks and really get into tune with its price action. If you try and trade too many different equities and cannot allocate the time required to conduct intensive research then I find it becomes too much. Focus is key so I just picked a few stocks and stuck with them unless they started trending sideways in which case it was discarded from my trading portfolio.
  5. @Nelsy-Boy, To answer your question honestly, yes and no. It is all about risk and we all have different risk tolerances. I am a high risk trader so the level of risk I take on is high. I use the MACD to help me when I am trying to identify trends but it is not just one indicator I use. I use several but I also try not to use too many as otherwise it just becomes complex for the sake of complex. The MACD helps me to establish whether any selling has been exhausted and whether there is the potential for a trend reversal. Again I must stress it does not guarantee anything. It is merely an indicator which could provide a wrong signal or it can change very quickly. @Nelsy-Boy, everyone you ask will give you a different variation of using indicators. You must find those indicators that increase your trading success based on your trading strategy and system. For me trading volume is an important indicators as I want to see an increase in volume which supports the price action either on the long side or short. In my opinion using divergence can help to identify trend changes. You must use those indicators which works best for you. There are many indicators and many different ways to use and interpret them depending on the timeframes you are trading. I do not always buy or sell at the optimum or most efficient price levels. The reason why I get away with this risk in my trading system is because I try to trade those trends which are the strongest. Strong trends allow me to get in the 'middle' and ride the trend because the momentum is so great. I know a lot of traders worry about entry and exit prices. My exit is taken care by my stop loss strategy and trailing stops when in profit on a trade. For day traders or very short term traders they must have an effective trade entry system. For me as I am a longer term trader then my entry points are not as crucial as I have time on my side and as long as I have identify the strongest trends to trade, it does not cause me any real issues. This is why you will see that I do trade all sorts of various assets from Cryptocurrencies, Commodities to Indices. I tend to stay away from FX though I have when an opportunity has presented itself traded FX too. For me it does not matter what the asset is. It is the strength of the trend and price action combined with volume which is the most important for me.
  6. Is Stellar gearing up for another move upwards? Stellar could be potentially looking to break out and join Litecoin upwards. This coming week will be interesting.
  7. Litecoin is continuing its aggressive rally upwards. As you can see from the chart above the volume is picking up in February 2019 and March 2019 compared to previously. This increase in volume is also supporting the price action which is bullish. Litecoin is also making higher highs and higher lows since middle of December 2018. Is Litecoin a buy? The only thing that concerns me is the curve of the 200 DMA. It is sloping sideways and it is clear from the chart that Litecoin is in a long term downtrend still. Cryptos have rallied before and then just come crashing back down. This could happen again so would need to see more healthy pull backs and upward continuations before this trade is de-risked a little bit. This is still a high risk trade on the 'long' side for me. Some healthy consolidation and then another move upwards may offer a more solid foundation for Litecoin.
  8. @RichB-Trader, You could look at Commodities. They can offer some really good trends to trade and follow. Why are you keen to spot macro trends and turning points? Are you someone who is going to trade on news? You need to ask yourself how you are going to use any information you obtain from spotting macro trends and turning points? You will need to include this in your trading plan. Commodities can offer some really good trends to trade so you may want to just start looking at the price action of certain commodities and see if it is something that interests you.
  9. @Nelsy-Boy, No problem. I thought you were only using 'daily' charts. In terms of drilling down I use the 1 hour chart when looking to select an entry point but I appreciate everyone will have different methodologies but I am sure several of them are profitable. The reason for this is that the trend will do all the work. The key is to identify suitable trends to trade. Do they have momentum? Are they supported by volume? Is the trend strong and bullish? Once you select this type of trend then it is a case of enjoying the ride and let the trend take you on an upwards journey if long and a downward journey if short. There are different ways in which you can use 'Oscillators'. When I have identified a trend and meets my criteria then I need to find an entry point. So when the trend seems to have finished a short term correction (trends will correct along with way which is perfectly normal and healthy) and begins to move higher, you will begin to see the oscillator is moving out of the oversold zone area. This point can be used to enter a trending asset. I must make it clear that using 'Oscillators' does not guarantee an effective or profitable entry point which leads to success. It is not foolproof and can be applied at the wrong time or simply incorrectly. Let me try and explain in as simple terms as possible for those who are not aware of what an 'Oscillator' is. It is important to understand what an 'Oscillator' is. It helps to show us a specific point in the trade we are observing whether it is 'Overbought' or 'Oversold'. Now when a specific asset you are looking at is overbought on the long side then one may expect selling to occur leading to the price falling. On the other hand if the market if oversold then one may expect buying to increase and a price rise could occur. The mid point in this is described as market balance. Now when the 'Oscillator' crosses this mid point the balance shift from buyers to sellers or the other way around. I hope this is making sense. Using 'Oscillators' are great for those who follow trend following principles. It is great at giving trend following signals. I have been caught out on 'false breakouts' and also got my entry wrong using this method so is is not 100% successful as all markets and conditions are different and unique and so one must bear this in mind.
  10. Here is another twist to Tom Lee's mystical prediction powers. Bitcoin Price Breakout Scheduled for August, Says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-breakout-scheduled-for-august-says-fundstrats-tom-lee Let the price action determine your trading decisions. Use technical indicators or what ever analysis whether technical, fundamental or both to assist you in making an effective trading decision rather than this 'market noise'.
  11. Tom Lee has suggesting that Bitcoin price is on verge of racing into bull market! When in 20 years time!!! His recent 12 month predictions have all been out. That is not to say this one will be wrong but his track record is not great. I have attached the article for your perusal. Tom Lee: Bitcoin Price on Verge of Racing into Bull Market https://www.ccn.com/tom-lee-bitcoin-price-on-verge-of-racing-into-bull-market
  12. Mircea, Yes the S&P 500 is indeed the US 500. I have no idea why they call it something different. You may find my thread called Potential Shorting Opportunity - US 500 interesting. Please do feel free to share any trading strategy or methodology behind your long positions on S&P 500. I am day trading on the long side for now but am waiting for a potentially mammoth shorting opportunity. Of course this may not come but will continue day trading on the long side for now.
  13. @Caseynotes, yes well explained. Zooming in before the kill gives a better aim and ‘shot’ at a successful trade.
  14. US indices are brushing away any delay on the confirmation of US - China trade talks. It is brushing away any uncertainty over Brexit. Trump actually stated he was looking forward to negotiating a trade deal between the US and UK if UK leaves in a no deal scenario. I think it was Elle that shared a chart where if past historical trends were compared then US indices could see sideways to upward price action. Obviously past performance and trends do not guarantee that future performance and trends will be the same. However it was rather interesting based on current price action and the chart for US indices.
  15. SIlver is outperforming Gold at the time of writing this post. Even if you doubled the leverage on any Gold trade against any leverage used on Silver then Silver is still outperforming Gold this morning.
  16. For me the S&P 500 is at a critical stage right now. It is either going to break through resistance and continue upwards. It is going to drop like a stone with some bounces upwards along the way due to the impact. @Caseynotesmade an interesting point on another thread about how some are looking for the short as the downside risk is potentially limited but if the price falls then the reward is big. I can see this logic but I myself would want to wait for the price decline to begin before entering just to put the odds and probability in my favour for success in the trade. Of course there is still no guarantee but I would rather sacrifice the profit over an increased chance of success. If the S&P 500 falls as some of us thinks it will then the gains are going to be big anyway. I just have this small feeling in the back of my mind that when the media reports that US markets may go down, when traders such as myself start thinking US markets could go down, then these markets end up going sideways to upwards. This is the big risk on this trade. The only way to mitigate this risk is not to enter too early. Wait for the drop to commence and if it is an initial large drop then this will begin to trigger stop losses, encourage new short positions to open and profit taking. This will amplify any move downwards if it were it to occur. If this does not happen then one must be disciplined enough not to enter. Remember, I have already got the timing wrong on this trade so discipline will be key.
  17. With a potential Brexit delay looming and US - China trade announcement not going to be made for another month, uncertainty remains and still exists. It has merely been shifted towards a future time period. This means that the short term fundamental drivers and environment for Gold have shifted. This may be part of the reason why Gold is positive this morning around 5:00 a.m. UK time.
  18. Using the Parabolic SAR once can try and identify direction changes in trends. The chart below will illustrate this point. Any dots below the price is a bullish signal and any dots above tends to indicate bearish potential.
  19. @Caseynotes, An interesting point you make. Different timeframes, different traders, different strategies. I try and stick to daily / 4 hour timeframes. The only time I look at 1 hour charts is to try and help with entry points. Different timeframes will tell a different narrative and hence those who switch between timeframes are more likely to make an incorrect trading decision. @Nelsy-Boy, Just remind me what assets you trade, your trading style and timeframe period you mostly use? I am assuming it is daily based on the charts you have posted?
  20. Orange Juice is looking like it is potentially breaking out. A key part of my strategy is to try and identify potential trends that I may wish to consider trading. There is a lot of downside already priced into Orange Juice which is something that I do like to see if at all possible. It is not always the case. Of course there could be more downside but time will tell. Right now it is important to monitor closely the price action of Orange Juice. There is no doubt that the long term trend is firmly down. However it has gone above its 20 and 50 DMA's. This is enough for me to start getting interested on the long side. There are times when I try and get in early as I can. The 100 DMA will be a key price point. Potential Trending Opportunities (PTO's) are key to any trend following strategy.
  21. @Nelsy-Boy, First of all I keep my charts very simple and with less 'clutter'. If I need to look at higher highs and higher lows then I look at it using a 'line' chart rather than a 'bar chart'. The reason for this as I am applying trend following principles and my timeframe is likely to be longer than yours. For me bar charts are more for shorter term traders which I am not. Also I tend to look at each indicator individually on the charts. So when I want to look at volume then I just look at volume. When I want to look at moving averages then I just look at moving averages, etc. On any long trend following trades I tend to 'add to my positions on the dips' and pyramid upwards. I use oscillators to try and identify attractive entry points but I am not too fussed about not getting the optimum entry point. As long as I am around that area it is fine. There will be times when I do not execute additions to my trade efficiently as my timing or execution is out. That is also fine and is built into my trading strategy. As I am going to trade with the trend than against it then I have 'tolerance built' into my trading system to allow me to add to my positions not at optimum levels. If I could do that then I would be a perfect trader and there is no such thing and I am certainly no where near that. I have flaws and make mistakes just like any other trader. Gold is actually quite difficult to trade short term at the moment as Brexit and the US Dollar are making it rather volatile. Stop losses will get triggered if they are too tight. If they are too wide then losses could increase if the price moves against the direction of trade. This is one of the reasons why I tend to trade for the longer time period and ride the trend using a longer timeframe. Yes there are daily charges with Spread Betting but if the trades moves in your direction then your profits more than make up for it.
  22. @Nelsy-Boy, @andysinclair and @Caseynotes, This is a very interesting thread. From a technical analysis perspective one must seriously consider the high probability of a downward move based on the chart alone. Most chartist would possibly agree that the odds are favouring a short move. I personally think that as well. However, the one thing I have learnt is that never let personal opinion cloud your judgement. I appreciate this is very difficult and at times I find it difficult too. It is important not to let emotions interfere in trading decisions. Though I personally feel that US indices will be heading lower the price action does not warrant any initiating of a short trade. I am not disagreeing with anything in this thread. @TrendFollower suggests one may want to consider waiting for a trend reversal confirmation before initiating any short trade. @TrendFollower likes to look at MACD and Donchian Channel (got that from Turtles by the way) for any trend reversal indications.
  23. @Nelsy-Boy, I appreciate your trading strategy and timeframe may be different to mine but I tend to look at 'Higher Highs' and 'Higher Lows' being formed. This is what I would like to see when trying to identify strong bullish trends to trade. If you look at the chart of Gold from August 2018 then it illustrates this rather well. I then try and use 'Oscillators' to try establish a good entry point on the dips of any long trends upwards once my indicators have indicated to me that my criteria has been met. It is by no means perfect and certainly does not guarantee profitable trades but that is what I tend to look at.