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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. Major indices are tricky to trade due to the price swings, whipsaws and volatility. It is why I favour a long term trend trade rather than short term on major indices but that's me. The volatility is brilliant for short term swing traders as there are plenty of swings they can capture.
  2. @Nelsy-Boy, This question comes down to your 'Trading Philosophy'. What is yours? That will help to answer the question. I personally follow the 'Trend Following' philosophy so I add positions as the trend moves in my favour. My initial trade certainly is not a tentative toe in the water as I am only going to enter the trade once certain signals are met and indicators support this. Adding positions is included in my 'Trading Strategy'. I want to try and maximise any profits on a strong trending trade so I 'Pyramid' by adding positions as the price moves. Of course if you are an 'Elliot Wave' Trader then your strategy may include 'Waves' in any scenario when you add to your position. It may be at A, B or C or at certain Fibonacci points. On your last point when I enter a trend I have no idea how long it is going to last or which point I am in that trend. Your initial entry may be near the first 10% of the trend and your additional position may only be 20% into the trend. There may still be 80% left of the trend. Trend followers will want to see new higher highs being formed and new higher lows being formed on upwards trends and vice versa for downward trends. If you think there may only be 10%-20% left in the trend because it has mainly played out then I would be inclined not to enter. So for example, I thought I called the direction of the trend right on Oil. I did not trade it as by the time I seriously considered it the move was so quick that I felt I had missed the majority of the trend and following the trend but not be worth the risk/reward. So I can see where you are coming from on this point.
  3. @JamesN, Could both of your stop losses on both positions have been triggered due to the extreme volatility?
  4. @Telstra & @JamesIG, I sincerely hope the TFN is not the Australian Tax File Number and following it is not the Medicare Health Number in Australia. Also full name has been provided and what looks like an expiry date of some sort. Please can this be removed immediately. @JamesIG, what happened to the button we could press to report such posts? I still cannot see it on my screen.
  5. With around an hour to go until the US markets close the current performance on both trades is as follows: Short opened on 20/12/2018 at 13:30 is up 56 points. Short opened on 27/12/2018 at 07:57 is up 6 points. Overall, I am 62 points up as a result of both trades combined.
  6. @Nelsy-Boy, May I please be critical without any offence being taken? Shorting can be perceived by some as being more risky than going long. So to initiate a short trade based on partly 'fancying your chances' is an absolute no no in my personal opinion. I have stated this on other threads but you really need a 'Trading Plan'. Then you need a clearly defined 'Trading Strategy'. This will lead you to develop a 'Trading System' where you follow clear rules of 'Entry and Exit' based on your 'Trading Style and Philosophy'. Without this you are merely 'chancing' and over time this will eat into your capital. Treat capital as an asset you must defend at all costs. You must try to lose as little capital as possible. It is about capital protection first as without capital you cannot trade. I only trade using profits from my investing portfolio. Capital cannot simply be traded away based on fancying your chances. I appreciate you identified an engulfing candle but you must ask yourself why this would increase your chances of success in the trade and put the odds in your favour? Was your stop loss distance correct? It may well have been and it may be that your trading is effective hence you got stopped out early and minimised your losses. There is nothing wrong in losing a trade. I shared two losing trades with the IG Community where I got stopped out on Ripple and Stellar a few months back. Though both of those trades met my entry criteria both were unsuccessful for me. I am not having a go at your or anything to please do not take it the wrong way. I just merely trying to help you as you seem to ask some really important questions and come across someone who wants to learn and improve.
  7. @elle, Yes that is right, they did. Good point.
  8. @DSchenk, I don't know about the merchant category code for IG. I think it is down to your credit card whether they classify it as a cash advance or purchase. I would check with them before funding your account. Also funding with your debit card is free but check to make sure there is no additional charge for funding your account with your credit card. I know there is not with debit cards but do check.
  9. @Nelsy-Boy I looked at it yesterday based on your post but it is not a potential trade that I am following at this moment in time. Even though the current price is below its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA have a look at how the moving averages curves are sloping. None of them are sloping downwards strongly and therefore based on my trading system I would not enter the trade. I would need at least the 20 and 50 day moving average curves sloping downwards more which may happen going forwards to even consider looking at it. What is your trading strategy behind trading FX pairs such as this? Are you looking to trade a long term trade or merely day trading over a 24 hour period? I don't quite understand. How are you deciding when to enter the trade? What is your criteria and time period for trading FX Pairs?
  10. @JamesIG, Some traders on IG Community expect there to be a drop in major equities. They also think precious metal prices may go up. If this plays out then an important asset which often traders never seem to talk about or discuss is Bonds and Gilts. You may wish to set up a new section on the IG Community called Bonds? If things do play out (there is no guarantee that they will) but if they and major stock markets decline and precious metals do increase in value then I think Bonds should see a price increase in such conditions as institutions and 'High Net Worth Individuals' (HNW) shift part of their capital into this asset class to protect their portfolios. Bonds are a 'defensive' assets that tend to rise in value in such conditions. The smart money tends to enter Bonds before the mainstream media talk about them. The smart traders will notice the trends before traders begin trading them. Have a look at the price action on some of the following: US Treasury Bond US 10-Year T-Note German Bund US Ultra Treasury Bond US 5-Year T-Note US 2-Year T-Note Japanese Government Bond I for one am keeping a close eye on the price action for these (above). I shall let the price action confirm my assumptions. Also Bonds as an asset class tend to be a lot less volatile than other asset classes so they should not be crazy daily swings like we are seeing on major indices right now. The one thing most of the above have in common is that they are all trading above the 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages on a '4 hour' timeframe.
  11. @DekkoHoldings, Yes that is a bit of an odd one. I merely assumed that IG's UK CFD account would be identical to its Spread Betting account but apparently not.
  12. Natural Gas is still continuing its downward move. I think it was @Nelsy-Boy who asked why I entered at 4100 level. Why not? It met the criteria of my indicators and signals which were inferring a downtrend in play. Also based on the parabolic move upwards prior there had to be profit taking, stop losses being triggered and short positions being opened to amplify the move downwards. I entered the short at 4100 and it is now at the time of this post 2904. Sometimes traders can over do the analysis and make a trade more complicated than it needs to be. Also traders can convince themselves not to trade based on over analysis. My experience, 'gut' and 'instincts' told me that the 'short' trade was on. I appreciate there will be many times when my 'gut' and 'instincts' will be wrong but this is where experience in monitoring price behaviour helps a lot. You get the feel of how the markets behave under certain circumstances and how trends tend to emerge. A lot of work is in the anticipation and making assumptions. You can then follow the price action to see if they confirm your assumptions. This is what I call the 'Testing' stage. This forms a very important part of my trading strategy.
  13. @GavinB, Apologies. I have just seen it. Yes I did not notice that. The two new indicators that I had not noticed are: Ease of Movement Rate of Change (This may not be a new one but I have only noticed it Thank you very much @GavinB for this. It is very much appreciated. Nice one. 👍
  14. @Caseynotes, Yes the market is not appreciative of the numbers released. It is also not showing any signs of sympathy even if the numbers are positive. The price action is telling us the story in front of our very eyes. The markets are discounted around six months into the future. So it is telling us the 'future of around in six months time'.
  15. I have hit the following today at the time of writing this post: Long Trade in Silver up 104 points Long Trade in Gold up 43 points I am expecting a large correction with profit taking before the trend upward resumes but both trades doing very well. I am glad I opened the Silver trade as well. My experience told me that Silver would outperform Gold and it has done exactly that as the results to date (above) show. I opened both trades at the same time on the same day. As I have mentioned before - Silver trend to outperform Gold when in a bull market. Its price performance behaves like Gold but on 'Steroids'. Also I have stated in other threads, markets love round numbers when trending. I predict that Gold will go for $1300.00 before the big correction comes. The one thing to remember is to let your winners run and not to exit too early. The correction will not necessarily be a trend reversal so one has to take the price action into consideration. Also Silver could try and hit $16.00 but I think it will correct prior to that but let's see as it has hit $15.00 after all! Upwards trends can last a lot longer and be more bigger than one thinks. Riding trends is one of the easiest ways to trade. It does not require any complex technical analysis, language and abbreviations that many do not understand or any superior level of knowledge. It does not require lots of charts and lots of lines then followed by more charts and more lines. It does however require living and breathing the price action (sort of like a religion) with discipline and sound risk management. It does requires hard work as nothing is easy so effort is a necessity. I think determination and passion for trading can go a long way as it pushes you to learn and follow the assets you are trading. Trading trends can be learnt by spending the time reading, practicing and learning to follow price action and identifying trends based on signals and indicators. Not all trades will be successful but as long the successful trades make more profits than the losses on the unsuccessful trades then that is the key metric to measure the performance on. Also it means having to carry out less analysis. You can leave the trades to their own devices. For example on a long trade if the price goes below a certain price then your stop loss will be triggered and if the price keeps on going up then you simply do nothing and merely watch. I tend to initiate a 'Trailing Stop' once in profit so that I know I cannot lose on the trade as if the 'Trailing Stop' is triggered then it will be with a profit.
  16. @PipEvangelist, You cannot amend the leverage on a 'live trade' but what you can do is add to the position. When you add to the position you can amend the leverage factor on the 'second, third or whatever' trade to how ever much you can afford as the margin requirements will increase accordingly. It will also depend on your risk tolerance and risk management strategy of course! I assume that is what you mean when you ask the question above? Or have I misunderstood?
  17. @DekkoHoldings, Click on the 'Magnifying Glass' Search at the top. I have just gone back to my mobile app and at the middle bottom you have 'Markets' with a magnifying glass above it. If you click on this then you will see: ETFs, ETCs & Trackers Click on this and then you will have options of different types such as North America, Emerging Markets, Commodity, etc. You should see this unless it is different as I have a UK IG Spread Betting account.
  18. Catching the right trends at the right time is all about timing and awareness. It is about following the price and being able to execute the trade regardless of ‘market noise’. The media tend to react to trends once they have been firmly established and the smart money is in them. This then brings another wave of investors and traders that do not want to miss out thus amplifying the trend upwards further.
  19. @Caseynotes, The major indices are playing out like I envisaged. It is nice to see the price action confirm my assumptions that are being tested as we speak. I would not want to go long any of the major indices right now and would certainly not want to go against the trend. It is not just a falling knife at the moment but a falling 🗡 dagger that could turn into falling ⚔️ swords for those who try and be contrarian with the wrong timing.
  20. @GavinB, I am aware of the Weighted Volume Moving Average but not seen the Ease of Movement indicator you are referring to. Is this on IG’s Spread Betting platform? I don’t recall this seeing this.
  21. @DekkoHoldings, I just tried on my IG mobile App on the iPhone and if you go to markets and then ETF, ETC and trackers then select the one you are interested in then it seems to take you to the screen to initiate a trade. Try this and see how you go. I am pretty sure you can do on your desktop just as easily. Don’t go into the screener but thought the markets option.
  22. I think Platinum looks excellent value from a price perspective compared to Gold. This cannot last for too long. At some point Platinum price needs to catch up with Gold's when all the 'Fundamentals' begin lining up. I shall keep a close eye on the price action of Platinum to see if any upward trend can be identified early. I also think some of the capital in Palladium may shift to Gold and Silver as they have the stronger trends now. Palladium was way ahead in the race against Gold and Silver but the dynamics have changed. Also the trend looks a bit 'toppy' to me so I think money may flow out of Palladium and into Gold and Silver. This is just my personal opinion so I could be totally wrong but it is just a hunch I have.
  23. @Mercury, If anything it seems during the 'Flash Crash' Silver certainly went up and Gold held its own overnight whilst the Asian markets were running. Obviously there may be some moving of capital today as a reaction so will have to see.
  24. I am based in the UK but not sure where you both are based @JM93 and @isomer and it is around 5:00 am and my UK Spread Betting account seems to be fine. From my understanding it happened after Apple's announcement and Asian markets got affected. It seems to be Australian markets that may have started it but the detail is scarce so early in the morning today. I am sure more news will come out as the morning progresses. @JamesIG, another example of where it would be useful to know which country the traders are operating in. Different countries may have had different issues with IG during this 'Flash Crash'.
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