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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @cryptotrader, One must know their audience. For professional traders who are experienced it does not matter whether I post line or candle charts as they will pay little attention to my charts. For new and inexperienced traders one must keep things as simple as possible and try and articulate matters in plain simple English including charts. I get many contacting me using IG's messaging service so I understand and appreciate my followers and those who read my posts. Therefore I deliberately keep things simple and my charts are no different. I get a lot of positive feedback from new and inexperienced traders who prefer and enjoy my simpler to follow posts. So I am catering for the audience that read my threads and posts. Line graphs present less information than candle charts so it depends on what type of trader you are as to which you decide to use and which you prefer. It is a personal choice but one that will be derived from your trading style and strategy. I find that line charts are a lot simpler and removes all the 'clutter' and 'noise' from the charts some of which can confuse you and not necessarily make it any easier for you to trade effectively or profitably. I tend to use a 'daily' timeframe when I trade trends and my position is held for as long as there is a trend. Therefore for me I do not need to see all intricate details which can be seen on candle charts. As a higher timeframe trader I prefer line charts as I want to look at a chart and get a sense of direction of the trend. I will switch and look at different timeframes but my 'default' is the 'daily'. I think more shorter time frame traders may prefer or have a use for candle charts. I find that the line chart provides a more clearer and visually simpler picture but that is just my personal preference. I think day traders may prefer candle charts but each to their own. Which do you prefer and why?
  2. Stunning performance from one of my favourite commodities of the past couple of years - Lumber. It is up 1166 points at the time of writing this post. The chart is trying to show a 'rocket' taking off!
  3. @elle, Some nice predictive modelling there. Testing assumptions through price action during a trend can really help even if your assumption is wrong. It helps gather valuable information and data. So one must not be worried or scared about being wrong and must embrace losses as they will occur. It is about minimising those losses.
  4. Gold and Silver are both continuing to make new higher highs and new higher lows which is an extremely bullish signal in my personal opinion. I think once the 200 day moving average curve begins to slope upwards it will attract a lot more buying pressure on the long side. The key is to identify trends to trade and attempt to get in as early as possible. Disclaimer: I am long both Gold and Silver but have adapted my strategy to day trade them both thus taking profits on a daily basis. I am trying to avoid going long on those days when they are both clearly trending downwards for the day. I am not shorting them as the longer term bias for the trend is upwards so will happily sit on the sidelines on those 'red' days. Of course there will be days when I make daily losses but the key is to continue trading whilst the longer term trend is upwards as on the balance of probability the odds should be slightly more in my favour of making greater profits than losses during this strong trend.
  5. I have a confession to make. I am day trading the US 100 both on the long and short side depending on the days price action. I am using the 1min, 30 mins, 1 hour and daily timeframes to assist me in my decision making. I accept it is not conventional but the experts will suggest using a specific timeframe and sticking to it and there is sound logic in that especially for inexperienced traders or those who are beginning their trading journey. I still believe at the moment (this could change) the long term trend has a downward bias but the volatility is providing a nice opportunity to day trade and I am trying to take advantage of this.
  6. If things were to turn sour on US indices then I see a potential 600 points on the 'short' trade. Now add leverage to this trade and you can see how attractive per point the US 100 short could be. Timing will be key. I got timing wrong on the previous occasion but I am opening and closing my positions more or less daily and taking the profits on down days. I am not trading on the long side and just remaining on the sidelines on those days as the longer term trend is still down on major US indices.
  7. The Nasdaq 100 is around 100 points down from yesterday. Trump has another round of talks with the Chinese this week. Earnings season is amongst us. Brexit vote. I think it will be interesting to see how UK markets close and how US markets open today.
  8. Gold and Silver are both trending higher than they were 24 hours ago.
  9. Gold is holding up rather well above the $1300 level and Silver is showing trend weakness but tomorrow could be a different animal altogether with the Brexit vote.
  10. It's after 10:00 pm and US indices are down and in the red just as expected. Markets will be jittery with Brexit as the UK is the world's fifth largest economy and has deep historical ties with major economies around the world including the US. If growth projections for the UK suffer as a result then it will have an impact on its major trading partners including the EU and US.
  11. @Mercury, Not all but for U.K. indices Brexit uncertaintly may relate to capital allocation strategies changing and position sizes reducing. Sound risk management!
  12. @elle, Yes quite possibly. We have witnessed recently all the major indices moving together in a similar fashion from a chartist perspective. However, there is no given right for this to occur. We are possibly witnessing some divergence with the FTSE 100 as a result and maybe rightly so. One would expect the FTSE 100 to drop more than other major indices with the uncertainty around Brexit and the risks involved for the U.K. Markets hate uncertainty and tend to react accordingly to it.
  13. I am expecting a blue day today in both Gold and Silver following up Friday's move. Also due to the uncertainty in the markets and the Brexit vote tomorrow and I envisage a lot of day traders opening short positions. Also negative news is slowly being trickled for China and its economic performance and profits by the media. I think equities will be going down today and hence feel that both Gold and Silver will have a blue day today. It is 5:00 am and both Gold and Silver are in positive territory as the Asian markets head towards their close and the EU markets head towards their open.
  14. It is 5:00 am in the UK and the markets seem jittery. Brexit is being mentioned on all major news channels available on Sky both in the UK and abroad. We could see a day of red today unless there is some positive news released by the media which gives traders and investors a reason to go long. I am expecting all the major indices to be in the red today as I can imagine a lot of short positions being opened by day traders the day before the Brexit vote due to uncertainty.
  15. The UK is making a strong push in improving its trading relationship with China. It should be trading far more with China and India based on their growth performance and potential going forwards. Also the sheer size of their markets means the potential is there and the UK should be striving to provide goods and services to China and India as they are going to be serious players in the next 10-20 years if not a lot sooner.
  16. @Caseynotes, Those charts are very interesting. What I am unsure about is whether Brexit is going to affect the rest of the world? If so then by how much? It possibly may not have any detrimental effect to other major economies around the world but this is the part which I am finding it extremely difficult to quantify even on an assumptive basis using predictive modelling.
  17. Does anybody on the IG Community think that the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 or the Dow will be making new 52 week highs in 2019?
  18. May I ask if anyone else is trading this on the IG Community?
  19. @Caseynotes, These forecasts could potentially change as Brexit implications are more clearer. Also countries like India are forecasting GDP of around 7% and Trump promised so much in putting America first that GDP in Q3 from 2.4% to 2% is certainly not what many in the US were expecting. I agree it is not actually that bad under the circumstances. From what I am hearing (in my circle) and my circle could be wrong is that at some point significant capital from especially US equities has to unwind and will shift into another generating better returns and providing higher yield. When this happens which could be a year to two away or may have even began but many don't realise it, US equities could slowly grind lower with large and long rallies along the way distracting the views of many. It will be interesting to see how the longest government shutdown in US's history affects the forecasts going forwards. I also think there is a fundamental shift of GDP growth from the west now to the east. Asia is fuelling this increase and the next decade I believe will belong to Asia in terms of GDP growth. For long term investors it is worth bearing this in mind when it comes to portfolio allocation in your investment portfolios. Obviously the growth figures released will either support my view or reject it so please do not just accept my point blindly but let the figures confirm or reject such a notion.
  20. This issue keeps on appearing from different posters on IG Community so it is clearly an issue. The problem is that the 'dividend reinvestment' is not a current priority for IG at the moment and no one including they know when it will be a priority for them.
  21. @KOMat, No, I have not traded KIO lately. My view on the stock is that since the end of November 2018 the price has been creeping upwards nicely and slowly. It seems to be just about making new higher lows and higher highs but just! Also the price at the end of November 2018 seems like it was the lowest price point over the past five years or so. The stock may well have bottomed and the downside risks could potentially be limited and more upside potential but this is not a given. I would suggest looking at the volume and establish if volume is increasing with the rise in price. I would then look at the moving averages and see how the price is reacting to key metrics such as 20 DMA, 50 DMA, 100 DMA and 200 DMA. From a fundamental perspective have a look at how much debt the company has? Are revenues increasing year on year? Is the company profitable and if so are the profits increasing year on year? If it is loss making then are losses declining year on year? Does the company pay dividends? Are the dividends increasing year on year? What are the future prospects of the company? What are the demand/supply scenarios for Iron Ore? How is the price of Iron Ore behaving? These are just some thoughts that I have quickly posted that were in my mind. Hope this helps.
  22. @gautamhait, Yes I am long both Gold and Silver. What I am doing is taking my profits and re-entering rather than leave my positions open and pay constant daily charges even if the move in Gold and Silver is against my trades.
  23. @gautamhait, I am afraid I find it extremely difficult to assist you. You do not seem to understand anything I am posting to you and you keep on asking the same questions. I will not be giving you my e-mail address. That is final. You can message me like all the other traders on IG's messaging platform. It works very similar to e-mail. I do not know how far it will be as I do not have magic powers and nor can I tell the future. I cannot even suggest to you to buy Gold long term as I trade on price action and like I have openly said I do not like Gold at all as an investment. I strongly feel there are better long term investments out there based on my risk tolerance than Gold over the next 10-20 years. Let me ask you this @gautamhait, how do you intend to trade or invest in Gold on the long side? Are you going to physically buy Gold, invest in a Gold ETF/ETC, invest in a Gold fund or investment trust, spread bet Gold, CFD Gold, futures market Gold, invest in junior Gold mining companies, etc? Also @gautamhait what country are you from? I clearly get the impression you are not from the UK which is the country I am from.
  24. Well the US Government has ended albeit temporarily the shutdown. The markets which were expected to sharply fall have risen phenomenally, especially the US indices. I tried to short the US indices and clearly got the trades wrong. Right now based on price action one should be trading long as one should never go against the trend regardless of fundamentals, economics, news, etc. Trends can be extremely powerful and if one trades solely based on fundamentals when there is a disconnect with the price action then it can be extremely dangerous. When you look at the US debt levels, potential interest rate rises in the US, US-China trade war, slowing down of the US economy with GDP figures possibly declining going forwards, potential company earnings declining and the potential unwinding of capital in US equities points towards a falling US stock market. The price action is telling us a different narrative right now which could change at any moment so one must follow the price action very carefully. Stock markets are a 'future price discounting mechanism'. So they are telling us what they think is going to happen around six months into the future. A lot of investors and traders forget this point. The key data to look at is the forecasts of say six months and twelve months ahead. What are the data expectations going forwards.
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