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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @KU1, That is interesting. May I ask why not XAU / GBP? I am from the UK but I accept you may be based in another EU Member State but a very good question. I would like IG to offer XAU / GBP so lets see if IG can make us both happy!
  2. @softcell, No problem. Though I made losses on these trades it has done wonders for me in my 'Long Term Investment Portfolio' as I made some lump sum investments into my US Smaller Companies fund and Automation, Robotics and AI funds which have US based companies in the portfolio.
  3. I have exited the 'Short' position on the S&P 500 and the final result is as follows: Short opened on 20/12/2018 at 13:30 ended up down 96 points. Both my 'Short' trades on the S&P 500 have resulted in losing trades. That is fine. One learns and moves on. I try not to get emotionally attached to any of my losing trades and I have had many. The S&P 500 is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages so it is not wise to open any shorts on this yet. The 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages are all sloping upwards which indicates to me a bullish pattern but the 200 day moving average is sloping downwards which still gives me the impression that there could be a big move downwards looming. I do not know when but I would be surprised if the S&P 500 did not revisit and re-test the recent low formed. The volume is not convincing in my opinion. When you look at the volume when I went opened my short trade compared to the volume now when it is trending upwards then there is a stark different. This does make me think whether this is just a monster relief rally and it does make me question how genuine this rally is. However, it is the price action which determines whether to trade or not and if so then which direction to trade everything else is secondary. I hope those who were following this live trade found it both useful and beneficial. Also for those of you not aware I was also sharing live trades in Gold and Silver which both were profitable trades so you may wish to look at that thread if you have not done so. It then gives a balanced picture of both profitable and losing trades shared with the IG Community.
  4. I have exited both 'long' positions in Gold and Silver today. The actual results are as follows: Long Trade in Silver up 78 points in just over one month from opening the trade Long Trade in Gold up 37 points in just over one month from opening the trade So I have profited from both trades in a reasonable timescale using the ability to leverage via Spread Betting. Gold and Silver have both gone below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Volume was higher on the downward days than the upward days recently. There may be a shift in sentiment due to the recent rally in the major indices such as the US and UK markets. Also there will be of course profit selling resulting in stop losses being triggered amplifying the move downwards. Right now it is about watching the price action and re-entering on the recommencing of the trend upwards for those looking to go long. There could also be a shorting opportunity but it is not something I would be looking at right now with all the uncertainty still in the market but for shorter term traders there could be some profitable short trades on both Gold and Silver.
  5. @Lech82, What is important is that you have considered all the different asset classed you could have traded and how you have come to the decision on trading FX pairs. This should be documented in your trading plan, especially the methodology you used which can always be revised as it should be a 'living' document which is adaptable. I assume you have chosen the FX pairs to trade due to the liquidity and taking into account the volatility? Do you want to day trade or trade longer trends? How have you come to the decision?
  6. For those on the IG Community interested in this trade and are 'long' stay in the trade and do not sell too early. Your stop loss should only execute your profitable exit once the trend has changed. Now speaking of trend changes and it will occur then one must be ready to short the very asset they have just profited from on a long trade. This helps to maximise profits from an asset whether that asset is trending upwards or downwards. If you look at Commodities such as Orange Juice, Lumber, etc. then this was evident. The trend downwards ends up being sharp and quick. I am expecting the same of Live Cattle. However there is no guarantee and it is certainly not a given. My personal opinion is that it is very likely. 'Assumption Testing' now required. So there is likely be a shorting opportunity for Live Cattle so be ready but keep long for now for those with open trades.
  7. If you look at both Gold and Silver right now then Gold seems ready for its next upward leg yet Silver is showing the opposite. It seems like it is ready for a downward move. I think both are waiting to see how the major equity indices perform before deciding upon its next course.
  8. Silver seems to be correcting stronger than Gold. Silver has just touched (at the time of posting) its 20 DMA downwards. Gold is looking far stronger at the moment from a chartist perspective but Silver tends to be someone who catches up later on and catches up hard and fast as we have seen on the recent rally.
  9. Lumber seems to be going through a consolidation phase. It is holding up rather well. The chart below highlights this point. I shall be keeping a close eye on the price action of Lumber.
  10. Live Cattle just keeps on rising! Have a look at the current chart below:
  11. @cryptotrader, Yes I must admit as I have watched the recent trend weaken I have considered taking profits but then remembered all the times historically when I have done that and the next leg upwards comes which is even stronger and sharper. This is why I wait until the trend reverses which is not the case in Gold yet. It is why I will wait until the trend is confirmed before buying and which is why I end up with the middle bit of the trend that I trade. I will never get in at the bottom or sell at the top.
  12. @elle, Yes I agree. The trend strength has declined which one would expect after the recent sharp rise. In my personal opinion the thing that is stopping any further rise in Gold is due to capital being allocated to equity markets hence their recent rise after the large drop. It is when that very capital leaves equity markets and a small amount of that ends up in Gold is when the really large rise will come. If equity markets continue rising then I fear that Gold could price could begin another decline.
  13. Venezuela is in dire trouble. Raised minimum wage for about the 6th time in recent times to around 18000 Bolivar. It is hugely dependant on oil and the Petro has been a farce. Oil, Copper and Lumber prices are very important indicators and barometers of economic conditions which can potentially paint a picture of what could come next. This is why paying particular attention to where we are in certain commodity cycles can help us plan any strategies for equity markets going forwards from a long term investment perspective rather than short term trading perspective.
  14. @Caseynotes, I saw a similar article. Very interesting. 👍🏾
  15. The result on the Brexit vote will be known after U.K. time 7:00 pm so It will be interesting to see how the major indices around the world react and in particular the U.K., Europe and US. Also how prices for safe haven assets and bonds react. If we are to see world stock markets decline and I don’t know if they will then the smart money will start allocating capital to Bonds and Gold. If they already have even a small exposure to Bonds and Gold then they will be increasing their exposure to such asset classes within their portfolios in my opinion. As always I will let the price action confirm or reject my assumptions. Assumption testing can be very valuable even if your assumptions are rejected when modelling any trading strategy and carrying out any forward testing. A lot of people give significance to back testing their trading strategies but I think it is extremely important to include forward testing as well before letting your trading strategy loose!
  16. @theshidoshi, There you go. Well done. I use several different platforms and brokers within my investment and trading portfolio. It also helps to diversify your wealth rather than have it all in one broker account. Also some platforms will be better in certain areas than others.
  17. I was reading an interesting piece in Reuters today where it mentioned the three reasons why Gold may be about to see a bull market. It was suggesting that countries like India and China were providing strong physical demand as one of the reasons. The second reason it was suggesting was that central banks were making robust purchases. Finally the third reason it was suggesting was an increasing demand for Gold as a 'safe haven' investment. These were the reasons behind the previous gold rally back in 2008 and it seems similar signs are appearing. If this is the case then it could increase the level of speculation for Gold and trend followers could begin appearing leading to 'herd behaviour' which is great for traders who get in early into trades when large, strong and long trends play out. A weak US Dollar added to the mix provides a platform for Gold to 'shine'. Now potential economic slowdown, recessions, interest rate rises, etc. all cause the potential for Gold to appreciate in price more probable. Now you have the US Government shutdown and Brexit cause uncertainty in the US and UK also adding to a potential shift in capital into precious metals. In India it is approaching the wedding season which is usually sees heavy demand for Gold. Apparently both China and India are seeing a 10% rise in demand of Gold from this time last year. The price action will react depending on how the above scenarios play out.
  18. As the country awaits the voting on the Brexit deal it will be rather interesting to see how the FTSE 100 and other UK indices behave as well as the safe haven 'Gold' in tomorrow's session and the overnight session throughout the night.
  19. My stop loss was triggered on my short Natural Gas trade. I made near enough 1000 points. I am out. Carbon Emissions is looking like a potential short trade though it could just as easily pop upwards so a very tricky trade to enter at this period in my opinion. Natural Gas has risen sharply due to the longer than expected cold weather to remain in the US so there is a fundamental backdrop which has created the price action today. When fundamentals meet technicals it can create wonderful trends. The question is whether it is worth now considering a 'long' Natural Gas trade? Natural Gas has gone above its 20 DMA and is moving upward towards it 100 DMA. Around the 3800 price level would see it hit its 50 DMA. What is interesting is that it has gone above its 200 DMA. The MA curves are sloping sideways to downwards so I personally would not enter the 'long' Natural Gas trade but short term traders and more speculative traders may consider it as well as the more aggressive day traders and shorter term trend followers.
  20. So where am I with this live trade at the moment? The current performance update is below: Short opened on 20/12/2018 at 13:30 is down 66 points. The trade is just hanging in there. Daily charges are being incurred so any further rally will see my stop loss triggered and I shall be out of the trade. If the price continues to move downwards like it seems to be then the trade will remain open though I may manually intervene should the trend not be strong enough or begin to lose momentum. My experience tells me that the recent bottom should/could be revisited and tested but IG's daily charges make it difficult to hold such a position and also there is no guarantee (high probability) of that at this stage. I am keeping close eyes on this trade and I may need to manually intervene and exit should the downtrend not continue strongly. There is no justification of paying daily charges when the trend is not strong enough in the direction of my trade. When the US markers open this afternoon (UK time) it should be interesting.
  21. So where are we with my live Gold and Silver trades? The current update is as below: Long Trade in Silver up 92 points Long Trade in Gold up 46 points  Remember I have not profited from either of these trades until I actually physically take the profits. These are just mere paper profits at the moment. Also I must take the IG daily interest charges from any profits to get more accurate profit figures.
  22. This was released via RNS this morning: KR1 plc Launch of KRX Ltd in Gibraltar https://www.investegate.co.uk/kr1-plc--kr1-/prn/launch-of-krx-ltd-in-gibraltar/20190114110000P2A48/
  23. This has just been released today via RNS by Coinsilium: Coinsilium Group Limited Strategic Business Update https://www.investegate.co.uk/coinsilium-group-limited--coin-/eqs/strategic-business-update/20190114070014ESASK/
  24. @AbDXB1345, You will not have perfected a strategy. Trust me. Even the professionals do not have a perfect strategy. What you possibly may have is an effective strategy based on your level of risk and money management. The demo account is one thing but trading in the real markets is a different beast altogether which I am sure you are about to experience. If someone said to me that your trading strategy would make a profit every single week or a trading strategy that would make a profit some weeks but losses on some weeks then which trading strategy would you select? Now if in the second example the profits far exceeded the losses and those profits were greater than the first strategy, now which would you pick? The point I am trying to make is that making losses is part of trading. One must accept them. Of course one wants to minimise those losses but they are part of trading.
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