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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. I think precious metals in general have a positive outlook for 2018 by the 'so called experts'.
  2. Right now Gold and Silver are looking very interesting. Precious metals in general are with Platinum and Palladium. The price action started turning positive mid December 2017. I think the long trade is on for precious metals.
  3. Ether hit $887.00 this morning and is clearly attempting to hit its recent high. It looks like the price action is supporting my opinion and views.
  4. This is a brilliant article to highlight the spectacular returns for crypto's against stocks. https://cointelegraph.com/news/2017-market-performance-crypto-vs-stocks
  5. That is interesting Caseynotes. Let's see if Bitcoin behaves as you think it is likely to. I think that there will be an initial drop before it starts going up overnight and into the morning. However the current short term trend is bearish so there may be 24 hours of pressure on the price downwards before any day of gains on Bitcoin. However, lets see. What I do expect is Bitcoin to surpass $20,000.00 if ETF Futures get approved, institutional investment money comes flooding into Bitcoin then I think there is still plenty of upside left. Also future improvements, reductions in transaction costs, improvement in sentiment will all play their part.
  6. I agree. This is not very professional at all. I just checked the Coindesk website and it is showing Bitcoin at $13,553.40 and Ether at $769.36 at time of writing. So there does not seem to have been any major crash in Bitcoin or Ether or vice versa and any really big rise.
  7. Good question Andy. Yes, you are right, the coming soon, part has been far too long on Litecoin. Are IG able to explain why it has taken so long? For me it would have been far better to only introduce Litecoin once totally ready and not have the 'coming soon' part at all. What is the point if you cannot trade it. What benefit does it add? IG will explain how it makes clients aware of a new crypto being available to trade but if they cannot trade it then what benefit is there?
  8. I am lost for words. I think IG were trying to improve accessibility to Bitcoin. I think it just makes it available to those who want to allocate lower amounts of capital to the trade or those who cannot afford to allocate more. I still think the margin requirements are far too high bearing in mind the amount of risk involved in trading Bitcoin.
  9. At the time of writing this the BID for Bitcoin is around $12770. This was for me confirms a trend reversal short term in play though the long term upward trend is still in tact.
  10. Situation, it is never to late to get in. As a trend follower that is one of the most valuable lessons I have learnt. As a trend follower, I will never get in at the bottom and I will never sell at the top. It is the middle part of the trend that I will aim to catch and participate in. Ether is currently around $700.00 area as I write this. If you truly believe that Ether will not only hit $1000 but $1500 then it is not late getting in. Timing cryptocurrencies is extremely difficult. However , if you can get in whilst Ether is in the $600's then it may be worth just watching with some patience as there may be a better entry point.
  11. The reason why a trader would be short is because Bitcoin has gone from high $19,000 to current price of around $13300! A long term investor in Bitcoin would not be short and may choose to add to their position on any corrections and dips whilst the long term upward trend is in tact. There are many ways to profit from Bitcoin. It presents a compelling opportunity to make profits. At one time I was both invested in Bitcoin and trading it short term, at times buying and selling within minutes and hours. I found shorting Bitcoin very tricky as after any downward move came a big upward move and stop loss being triggered before the downward move re-commenced. I experienced this during the $2000.00 range. It was extremely volatile back then and the moves were sharp, sudden and extremely quick. To me Ether's 4 hour chart looks more positive towards the upside (only at the time of writing) compared to Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash.
  12. I think the first part of the question should be answered by a qualified accountant. The second part of the question may be more suitable for a qualified financial adviser. Many on the IG Community could give you their opinions or make suggestions. However, how will you decipher and depict which is better for you. More importantly how will you determine which ways are correct and which methods are described accurately? For me you ask a very dangerous question set of questions.
  13. Ether looks very interesting. It is open source and features smart contract functionality. I think 2018 will be very interesting for Ether. The Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) is fascinating, especially the participants involved and their calibre. For me the BID price of around $756.00 is an interesting level. If Ether crosses that and at the time of writing it is only around $14.00 off that mark then Ether will be resuming its upward momentum before possible Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a little bit more to do to recommence its upward march. If Ether does not cross $756.00 level then I fear another sharp drop back into the $600's. I see Ether hitting $1000.00 in 2018 if not higher. I think Bitcoin traders and investors need to keep an eye on Ether. For those trading on other platforms as well, keep an eye on Ripple, Stellar and IOTA in 2018.
  14. Looking at Bitcoin then if the BID can cross around the $16151 level then that will be confirmation to me for a possible trend reversal back to the upside. For me that is a key area now for Bitcoin. Long term Bitcoin is still in an upwards trend. Even mid term but short term if it cannot stay above 16151 level then it may in a short term downwards trends. For day traders the short term trend is important. For investors the mid term trend is important. For long term investors, volatility does not matter and it is the long term trend that matters.
  15. Ripple briefly pushed Ether to one side and became second only to the mighty Bitcoin in terms of market cap. Ripple's performance is staggering. Its partnerships are impressive. What does IG do? Give us Litecoin - coming soon. IG seriously needs to start offering Ripple but then Dash, IOTA and Stellar. IOTA and Stellar are upcoming and the one's to watch for 2018. The returns for Ripple and Stellar are amazing and nothing short of astonishing. If IG wants to seriously be considered as the platform to go then it needs to offer at least the top five if not the top ten crypto's by market cap. If it wants to be the leader in offering its clients crypto's to trade then it really needs to increase its offering and fast. What we do not want is IG offering us raspberry flavoured ice-cream! That is not the type of ripple I am looking for.
  16. I am replying to myself but a rare sight where Gold and Bitcoin are moving upwards together in tandem. It is 15:06 when I witnessed this. Interesting.
  17. I am genuinely intrigued why the IG Community is not discussing the price action of Oil, both US Crude and Brent Crude. An interesting long trade trade has been in play over the past six months. With the position building in nice profit with the use of leverage available via IG's Spread Betting platform. Is it too late for anyone to enter now? Well the trend is still in play so one could enter now with a long position at around $60.10 with a reasonably relaxed stop loss at around $55.20 so that one does not get stopped out due to a slightly strong volatility here and there. If the price keeps going up from here then merely just keep adjusting your stop loss upwards or initiate a trailing stop. Once your position is in profit then this will ensure you will exit the trade with a profit. This is just a trading idea I am suggesting to the IG Community so please do not take this as a 100% winner. I would urge anyone first to conduct some research on why the price of oil is rising. Some fundamental analysis using the internet should assist you with this. You must have a plan in terms of how you want to trade oil. You must be clear in terms of how much capital you are willing to risk if the trade does not play out as you think. You must set a stop loss and you must be clear how tight or relaxed that stop loss needs to be based on your time frame, risk threshold, etc. I could be more specific and give more detail but then I would be doing all the work for you! Remember the trend could reverse at any time or any corrections could get bigger before resuming upward trend so just be aware of this when deciding upon the best strategy for you to trade oil should you wish to do so.
  18. I wanted to share this with the IG Community. Gibraltar is set to become the first jurisdiction globally to provide a regulatory framework specifically designed for firms engaging in activities that use DLT for the transmission or storage of value belonging to others (DLT Framework), also covering Blockchain Technologies. In May 2017, Gibraltar Finance released a consultation document as part of its process towards establishing this regulatory framework. The operative date is expected to be no later than 1 January 2018. The consultation document can be viewed at the following link: http://www.gibraltarfinance.gi/downloads/20170508-dlt-consultation-published-version.pdf
  19. Finally, anyone who truly wants to get a better understanding on Blockchain, then I recommend the book: BLOCKCHAIN - BLUEPRINT FOR A BETTER ECONOMY The author is Melanie Swan and the book is part of the O'Reilly series. The author is the founder of the Institute for Blockchain Studies. It is a very short and simple book and written in a style which one can understand. I highly recommend it to those who are interested in blockchain or even investing in blockchain start ups like myself. There are some interesting blockchain companies out there that can be traded using the IG platform. One of the is Hive and the other Riot. One of my favourites is BTL listed on the Toronto exchange but IG does not offer the facility to trade BTL. However, I have invested in a company called Vela Technologies which has a stake in BTL. Operating globally, BTL has created an enterprise-grade private blockchain development platform called Interbit. Together with a growing list of global partners, BTL, via its Interbit platform offers blockchain solutions to businesses across multiple industries. It also has interested in many other businesses some of whom are Portr and Vibe. This can be traded on IG's platform. I have also invested in a company called Blue Star Capital as it is a play on SatoshiPay which is involved in nano payments and has chosen the Stellar Lumens platform. This too is available to trade on the IG platform. Two other really interesting blockchain investments that I have made are Coinsillium and Kryptonite 1 PLC. Both are listed on the UK NEX Exchange. They both invest in blockchain start ups. For example Coinsillium have an interest in Factom and RSK and carries out an advisory role for Gibraltar Blockchain Exchange. I am sure many of you have read that it is blockchain that has merit rather than cryptocurrencies. If that is true then I hope my posts in three parts has provided some food for thought for some of you. Even if one person within the IG Community finds it helpful and useful then it will have been time well spent from me.
  20. People have stated in posts within the IG Community that the likes of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are not backed by anything physical. Some of you who have read my previous posts will know that I think Bitcoin will end up as the equivalent of the gold standard in the crypto space once all the rubbish has been discarded. There is plenty of rubbish. My take on this question is what backs fiat currencies? In my opinion what backs fiat currencies is the high adoption rate, being accepted by many people, the population buying into the illusion of the concept of money. If more people were to accept the notion of cryptocurrencies and begin to use and trust them, they too could become as liquid as fiat currencies. Another thing I have heard repeatedly is that Bitcoin is for criminals to launder the proceeds of crime. Well I could say exactly the same for cash. Cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies can both be used for good and bad. I am not trying to say that cryptocurrencies are the best and fiat are not or vice versa. I am just presenting my view on this matter. I would argue that more money laundering activity happens via fiat currencies than cryptocurrencies. This is mainly due to cryptocurrencies not being adopted yet in the mainstream. For me Apple Pay is the bit between fiat currencies and digital currencies. From my understanding the use of Apple Pay is increasing and it is being adopted by far more as time goes by. In my opinion, Apple Pay, may pave the way to full mainstream acceptance of digital currencies in the years to come.
  21. No one is suggesting that price action or trend following works 100% of the time. It does not. End of. What price action and trend following does is increase your chances of making a profit by going with the trend and price action rather than against it. It is about increasing the probability of a successful trade or investment. Yes, absolutely it does not work 100% of the time. Using the method does not guarantee a successful outcome. Nor does value investing or any other method. There is no trading strategy that works 100% of the time. Even the trend following hedge funds using algorithmic trading black boxes lost money a few years back and a lot of these hedge funds had to shut down as the drawdowns were getting too frequent and too large. However, it is about your personal viewpoint which strategy you adopt. My mindset and personality allows me to be comfortable placing a trade or making an investment going in the same direction as the trend. I am comfortable having 7 out of 10 losing trades as long as the 3 that are my winners make enough profits that they cover all the losses on my 7 losing trades. Now there will be many that are not comfortable having say 70% losing trades. That is fine. They will find a strategy based on their knowledge, experience and personal mindset that they feel comfortable with. What you tend to be doing is keep on going on and on about how price action does not work yet the sources that you are providing links for do not seem 100% credible to me. What makes your links "100% truthful and fact?". They will have an element of bias in how it shows the message it is trying to convey. If you do not want to use price action and it does not work for you then fine. What you should do with your wisdom and experience is share real time trading idea to the IG Community. Maybe certain trades that others have not considered, or are not aware of, etc. This would be more useful. I do not always agree with value investing as Warren Buffet had an edge that no ordinary investor could ever get. That does not mean that I keep posting about how value investing does not work. I am sure there are websites that provide such a message. There may be many investors for whom value investing does work. That is trading and investing life. Each to their own strategy and style.
  22. To me the data and facts being presented by the charts suggests that there is a pattern emerging when one looks at the price behaviour of Bitcoin and Gold at the same time. For example, Bitcoin, is going down right now. At the same time, Gold, is going up right now. Whenever Bitcoin starts a mammoth move upwards, Gold declines (albeit slightly). When Bitcoin begins its stone dropping move then Gold appreciates (albeit slightly). A high risk trade that could be considered is that if you are long Bitcoin then shorting Gold or if you are long Gold then shorting Bitcoin. At the current time of writing the long Gold and short Bitcoin trade is on as I write. If one wanted to manage the risk and possibly hedge this trade then at the same time you could go the opposite of your first trade and go long Ether and short Silver or long Silver and short Ether but this would have to be the opposite of your initial trade. I hope that makes sense!
  23. James, Copper has been boosted by Chinese imports which hit a 3.5 year high. Also there was a rumour which has been denied that China's top copper producer, state-owned Jiangxi Copper, had stopped production also supported prices this week. For me looking at the price action of Copper over the next few days and weeks will be key. The trade I am thinking about relates to the price breaking the 3.25 to 3.35 range. If it does and surpasses 3.40 price range then I would be looking to go long here on Copper. Aluminium is slightly more tricky as there is suggestions that there could be surpluses in China who are the biggest producer and consumer of the metal. China is determined to shut illegal smelters, and cut production of aluminium by 30% in four provinces around Beijing during the winter, to curb pollution. I would be looking to enter a long position if not already long in Aluminium on any major pullback. I look at charts to identify trends. I look at charts for moving averages, oscillators, etc. However I am not a chartist or somebody who goes into too much detail and technicality on charts. I allow the price action to determine whether I open the position long or short. If I go long and the trend reverses then my stop loss will come into play. If not then I will allow the position to run until the trend reverses. This will I should be able to maximise my profit and minimise my losses. For commodity trades I do tend to establish if their is a fundamental reason behind the price action. I always feel that if there is then it just makes the trend stronger. For example, in recent months the fundamental story was there for both Lumber and Orange Juice due to the hurricane in Florida. However that trade is no longer on for Orange Juice though for Lumber there may have been a healthy pullback looking at the charts.
  24. I agree. It would be interesting to know for all those people looking to open positions on Bitcoin, what their trading strategy and plan is? Do they actually have one? Do they know at what price they are going to exit even before they enter their trade? How are they going to determine their stop loss level? This is the most difficult aspect I personally have found trading Bitcoin. If you set your stop loss too tight then you will get stopped out very frequently and quickly. If you leave it too wide then your losses could increase to uncomfortable levels. Also add not being able to open position in Bitcoin when you want to with IG just adds to the difficulty. Especially when a short term breakout has been identified, etc. This was one of the main reasons why I switched from trading Bitcoin on IG to investing in Bitcoin via XBT Tracker products.
  25. I have commented before but trading Bitcoin is really in my opinion for professional day traders. Anyone else will end up losing money as they will just get stopped out due to the extreme volatility. You really would need to have an 'algorithmic black box' and the latest systematic trading system in place to even have a chance and be able to enter and exit your position within nano seconds to truly have an edge. Also this would take any fraction of emotion out of the trade. If anyone does not have access to such tools then it is very difficult to even compete in such an arena. I have invested in Bitcoin and Ether via XBT Trackers in both SEK and EUR currencies and my strategy is to hold as I believe there is more upside. I don't even believe we have even seen half of the bubble yet. There are so many that do not know what Bitcoin is or have ever heard of Blockchain. There are so many that do not have any sort of position or investment in either. Therefore if Bitcoin is in a bubble and I am not suggesting it is as this can be debated from both perspectives, then I would say it is only the start of the bubble or at best half way through the bubble. We are certainly no where near the end of the bubble. I will not wish anyone the best of luck who is even attempting to trade Bitcoin without the above tools. Luck and hope should not be part of your trading / investment strategy. You must have a specific trading plan for Bitcoin which you are able to execute. You must have specific rules which you will follow. Extreme discipline is required and anything less will lead to overall failure in my opinion.
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