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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. How will the 7.5% per annum IG Admin Fee be applied? If you were offering a great service and offering the choice of Ripple, Dash, IOTA, Stellar Lumens, etc. then I can just about get my head around such an admin fee but to charge on current performance I think is extremely disappointing. IG needs to provide a far higher level of service and offer a wider choice before it starts charging in such a way.
  2. One of Warren Buffet's advice is to be greedy when others are fearful. Right now on Bitcoin there is panic selling, profit taking, etc. Charts are showing a 40% retrace. Would you follow Warren Buffett's advice and buy Bitcoin now? Would you be greedy and buy lots of it? Lets assume I was not talking about Bitcoin but another asset, say a company share or even a commodity but it was showing the same price action as Bitcoin and you believed in the fundamental long term story, what would you do?
  3. Caseynotes, I agree. Though I am a trend follower I will never force my views on anyone or belittle anyone who has a different strategy as we can all be successful using different styles, techniques and trading different assets. If buy the dip works for Oilfxpro then great. I think we all get the message.
  4. https://www.ccn.com/trader-bets-1-million-that-bitcoin-price-will-reach-50000-in-2018/
  5. Within the past four years, Pantera Capital and its bitcoin hedge fund has recorded a 25,004% return, nearly six-fold of the legendary Quantum Fund of billionaire investors Jim Rogers and George Soros. For decades, Rogers and Soros were praised by the global finance market as legendary and once in a lifetime investors for recording a 4,600 percent return in 10 years. Pantera Capital’s bitcoin hedge fund recorded five times of that in merely four years.
  6. I am not panicking about Bitcoin at all. I think most fully expected a very large correction and that is exactly what we are seeing. I think anything below $12,940 would be the strongest indication of a trend reversal and if Bitcoin was to go below that level then it may trigger a **** of a lot of stops and panic selling. I think 2018 is going to be an interesting time for Bitcoin. I say this because 'herd mentality' has not even kicked in yet for me. If after this big correction Bitcoin commencing the next leg up there will be a **** of a lot of people who have not participated in the Bitcoin ride and may well enter if they feel that $48,000 - $50,000 is a possibility. If they all enter and Bitcoin ETF's are approved in 2018 then I think we could easily see the price double next year or at the very least have a go. Asia are big traders of Bitcoin. I wonder if they see this as a great buying opportunity to set themselves up for 2018? If they continue the selling then it could be a bigger drop than I thought. How Asia reacts will help to determine how Bitcoin is going to perform short term.
  7. 121, That's right. Not many people know that he was a futures trader at Sabre Fund Management in the 80's I believe. I think from memory he was only there for a couple of years but he certainly made a very strong impression. He is very well educated and I believe he studied Science at Cambridge. He founded the AHL at Man Group before setting up Winton Capital Management which has been going for around 20 years now. He is a strong advocate of quantitiative trading. David Harding is a billionaire and his wealth has been created from trend following using a quantitative approach. He was a successful trader. He used a combination of high level mathematics and science. Not everyone can replicate what he has done because not only is he a very intelligence and smart man but his education plus experience makes him unique in the UK and most of the world. This is why people like Covel can only write about them and share his story rather than replicate. The odds are against anyone even trying to copy him. He has got stronger over the years because he has -re-invested the wealth he has created in employing the smartest brains around and using the latest, fastest and best technology available.
  8. Cotton is another commodity which over the past 20 plus days has performed admirably on the long side. There is a story behind the rise based on fundamentals and the decisions involving countries in Asia. Pakistan, India and China being the participants in this story.
  9. Lumber is up over 1000 points today. Could the next leg upwards be commencing on Lumber?
  10. The Billion Dollar Hedge Fund Interview with David Harding, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Winton Capital Management http://www.eurekahedge.com/NewsAndEvents/News/1193/The_Billion_Dollar_Interview_with_David_Harding_Chairman_and_Chief_Executive_Officer_at_Winton_Capital_Management
  11. Oilfxpro, your discussions lead to a classic discretionary vs systematic trading argument. There are pros and cons for both. There is a lot of literature out there on both which I won't repeat. Hedge Funds were extremely successful and some of them still are using systematic trading with algorithmic 'black box' to assist in extremely quick speed execution on buying and selling. This helps to take emotion out of the trade. It helps from your 'psychology' perspective. The issues you have highlighted would apply more to discretionary traders. That is where someone mindset, mentality, personality, education, upbringing, environment, background, experience all and much more come into play. It is extremely complex and not every trader even a successful one could even begin to contemplate such difficult matters.
  12. As it was me who started this post, let me help put some perspective in this situation. First of all, I totally agree that it is very poor level of service from IG. They should clearly not be offering Cryptocurrencies as a product offering if their clients cannot go long or short when they want to. Many people have put their complaints and feelings towards IG and James has responded so I won't repeat his post. James has answered as honestly and as detailed as possible. This was an issue for me during the summer months. So what did I do. I looked for alternatives. There are other platforms that you can go to. Yes the charges may be higher but if you making massive amounts of profits and trade when you want to then I would rather pay higher charges! I will not repeat which brokers I have suggested but if you research and spend time on Google it really is not that difficult to find other brokers that offer more choice on Crypto's as well. However I did not just stop there. I then looked for different ways to gain exposure and found the XBT Tracker One funds in EUR and SEK for both Bitcoin and Ether. I invested in both of them in the EUR and SEK currencies. I got triple digit returns in three weeks. Both positions are still running and even after recent drop both are still showing triple digit returns in around a month now. Taking the time and conducting some research on the Internet, looking at alternative options, weighing up costs (higher) against more choice and ability to trade both long and short when you want needs to be considered. It does not take long. I am sure IG would offer a better service if they could. They are unable to at this point and therefore everyone has to make their own decision and choose the best option for them.
  13. Caseynotes, I agree probabilities play an important role. It is about adopting a strategy which can increase your chances of successful and profitable trades. I like to invest in high risk capital growth investments. Trends change / reverse and trend following or price action cannot be 100% correct. One must understand that. Therefore if a trader makes 10 trades and on 7 of them he loses and only on 3 of them he makes a profit then this could be viewed as a 30% success rate and 70% failure rate. Now if in the 3 trades that he was successful on he made more profit (much more) than the 7 he lost on then that is the key performance indicator that is the most important. In trend following it is about cutting your losses quickly and minimising losses. It is also about letting your winners run and not selling too early and maximising your profit. In this example the trader would have been wrong 7 times of of 10 but who cares if his 3 trades make him enough profit to cover all the losses and much, much more. I accept this is very difficult to digest for some but I have been doing this for many years and I am sure (not been counting) but I have had far more losing trades than winning ones. However I am still here stronger than ever and it is down to having big winners that cover all the losses and a lot, lot, lot more. The secret to this success is strong risk management and discipline in following some strict rules. There is nothing clever, complex or special that I do.
  14. Oilfxpro, if the price action changes and thus the trend reverses then it is very simple. My trailing stop / stop loss would be triggered as I am following a set of rules (knowing what my exit is before I enter the trade) and attempt to minimise my losses. This will take any emotion out of the trade. I try and keep things very simple. Sometimes there is no need to complicate things. If I have a long position on a trade mark then I will add as the price increases (pyramid upwards rather than adding when price declines). I have done nothing clever or complicated and have let the trend do the work for me. Human psychology is to buy when something which comes down in price and investors tend to average down thinking they are getting better value. In terms of balance of probability and chance then I would rather have stronger odds by buying something actually going up in value than something that is going down in value. However, I totally respect different strategies and no one strategy is 100% correct or foolproof. In terms of some of the best trend following traders then try looking at the following but remember all traders will have drawdowns and that is something that every trader has to accept, embrace and not get bogged down on. Ed Seykota Bill Dunn John W Henry Bruce Kovner Michael Marcus David Harding They will all have lost money in certain years so do not get fixated with that. These guys have been very successful in trend following. However, it does not mean that this is the golden answer and everyone must trend follow to successful make big profits. Different strategies will suit different people depending on a lot of variable factors.
  15. Oilfxpro, no two traders will analyse every single piece of price action in exactly the same way. This is why a lot of traders find the whole idea of price action so difficult to understand and apply. Traders who use price action keep things very simple when trading. They are sort of technical traders who rely on technical analysis but they do not rely on the normal indicators that would point them in the direction of the trade. Price action traders would rely on price movement, chart patterns, volume amongst other things to establish where or not to enter a trade. You could call it a very simple way of trading but I am not suggesting it is easier or better than any other method. The trader still needs to understand how the market works which it is trying to trade but in theory should work in most markets such as equities, commodities, etc. I would state that at times I am a bit of a price action trader. People may have heard of the term 'tape reader'. Jesse Livermore was a very famous one. Of course he lost money but he also made money. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is an excellent book to read to familiarise with his story if you do not know about it. Tape readers don't generally need charts though I tend to use them. Tape readers generally would not use any indicators or oscillators. I tend to use 20, 50 and 200 moving averages and oscillators. One must use a system that suits them. Their profits and the money they make and wealth they create will determine whether the strategy is a correct one or not and whether it is successful or not. I don't really care what other people do as we are all different. I would be a terrible value investor as I would have to buy something which I think is undervalued and hope that it goes up. Now I would have very little edge in this style as simply I would not have access to information that the likes of the 'big players' would have. In trend following based on historical price action (no guarantee that it will continue) but it increase my chances based on probability to hit a profitable trade. These mentors merely bring the real life stories and techniques to a niche audience around the world. They do not state they trade it themselves to make money as you have to be extremely disciplined. If price action does not work and I am someone who uses price action then I must either extremely lucky or doing something right. I am certainly not a billionaire but I have been relatively successful using such techniques. I am no super professional expert either but I can certainly advise that if used properly based on your personality, with a sound trading plan, strong risk management, strict set of rules that you must follow, always knowing your exit before you enter the trade, amongst many other things then profits can be achieved. It is all relative to the amount of time you have. Value investing works and many have made millions if not billions using it. I have no issues with any different trading or investing styles and have respect for each of them as they all have a place. I respect all the strategies out there and there are many. I am a firm believer in price action and frankly who cares if these so called mentors (marketing people) do not trade and make billions. It really is not important and does not matter. The most important thing to remember is to adopt a trading style that suits your mentality, time horizon, aim and objectives, etc. There is a place for price action traders and there are many successful ones who have made millions and billions. The mentors are just someone who can write about them, put it in a book and sell them to make money and courses. No one really cares about the Michael Covel's of this world.
  16. I am replying to myself as I sometimes have a tendency to do. Three weeks ago I suggested having a look at UK Blockchain plays. Forget about On-Line PLC as it is utter garbage at the moment. No credible news so I would not even go close to it. However the other four are extremely interesting. Disclaimer: I have positions in all four companies, Coinsillium, Kryptonite 1, Vela Technologies and Blue Star Capital. The share price performance is just astonishing yet there are many who have either not heard about these companies or are just oblivious to what is happening. I am not suggesting these are world class companies that you should all invest in. However, if one trades and invests to make money and lots of profits then these companies need to be looked at so that you can see how it has stunning returns over the past 12 months.
  17. I wanted to share this article with you guys. https://www.coindesk.com/ice-exchange-unit-seeking-to-list-bitcoin-futures-etf/ I think this may be the trigger that takes Bitcoin above $20,000.00. Once this is approved and news released of such then I think Bitcoin could go through around the $21,600.00 area. The media is hilarious about the drop in the Bitcoin price. I have been in Bitcoin since the $2,000.00 mark and there have been plenty of these drops and the weak holders sell and struggle to get back in. Patience and holding through the drops means you still have a position and a large profit as Bitcoin is extremely difficult to trade unless in my opinion you are a professional trader with successful experience rather than just unsuccessful.
  18. https://www.ccn.com/famed-short-seller-pounding-the-table-on-bitcoin-investment-trust/
  19. Ether has doubled in value just in December alone. In my personal opinion, I think $1,000.00 will be hit soon on Ether. The increase in Bitcoin has slowed recently and I think some smart capital is being allocated to Ether and other crypto's. The chart and trend is looking extremely bullish for Ether yet the main media focus is on Bitcoin. I cannot see the mainstream jumping in Ether. This will be a niche for the tech savvy. I could be wrong but for now I think it is difficult enough to get them involved in Bitcoin so Ether's highest finish can only be second in this race. However there could be big returns for investors who show patience with Ether.
  20. Caseynotes, it is. However, before I decided to invest I looked into XBT, the company behind the tracker fund, and realised how big they were. I invest in both the EUR fund and the SEK (Swedish Krona) funds. Both are up sometime like 151% and 163%. There is a difference because of the difference currencies. Also your pounds sterling buy you different amount of units in each fund. They also now offer both versions of EUR and SEK for Ether too. For the mainstream to get involved in Bitcoin I think it will take ETF's to really push the price up. Especially in Europe and the US.
  21. Bitcoin performs at its best when no one expects it. If it performed as per the books then every trader would be making millions on Bitcoin. This is where an ETF or tracker fund is a useful vehicle if one thinks that bitcoin's trend has a long way to go. I have made 150%+ on XBT Tracker One product in less than four weeks. Bitcoin follows the rules of a long term trend but is writing its own new rule book for short term trends and how they behave if Bitcoin really is not a bubble. I have never seen anything like it and I cannot even think of what to compare it against in my lifetime. I have heard people mention Amazon but Amazon was a real company that was growing revenues. It is still growing now as it has some many opportunities in new countries. Imagine if Bitcoin became a combination of a store of value that could be used to purchase goods! Gold is a store of value but you cannot use it to purchase a bluray movie or item from Amazon. There is more chance of Bitcoin being used to purchase items than gold. For example, recently two UK homes were sold for Bitcoin. Michelle Mone and her partner are selling flats in Dubai for Bitcoin only. You never hear about people selling real assets for gold only. Bitcoin would be a monster of an asset if it truly became a store of value and currency that could be used to purchase other assets / items.
  22. Excellent James. I would love to see Ripple, Litecoin and Dash on IG. I would be ecstatic if IG were to offer IOTA and Stellar Lumens.
  23. I fully expect Bitcoin to hit $20,000 this week and certainly before Friday. The way Bitcoin behaves it could easily hit it in the next 24 - 48 hours. I am not too sure the agenda for the media when reporting about Bitcoin futures. Futures can be used as an effective hedging tool when looking from a risk management perspective. There will only be 21 million Bitcoin's mined. Therefore limited supply. This will be a factor in driving the price if it becomes accepted as a store of value. I think the physical purchases of Bitcoin will determine the price. The futures market may help to reduce the insane volatility and improve liquidity. Lets see what this week brings.
  24. 121, one must be extremely careful when reading media articles. There will most certainly be a bias towards one perspective and at times there could be a specific agenda. 'Market Noise' must be taken into account. I would expect someone like Dimon to have a better understanding of Bitcoin than most people even trading it here on IG when it is available to trade! None of us can predict the future even Dimon. However, with his position, experience and contacts one would expect him to be able to come up with realistic possibilities. The real question is how much more capital can or will the 'whales' put in Bitcoin. It is rumoured that 1000 'big investors' hold around 40% of the Bitcoin market. If this is true and they only put in a very small amount of their wealth into Bitcoin and they have more ammunition then it will be interesting to see where they can take Bitcoin along with all the new investors continuing to buy Bitcoin across the world. If the 'whales' were to have a collective understanding then they could seriously effect the direction of Bitcoin and the pace in which it arrives at its destination.
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