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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @SAMMYDAVID, No worries. Congratulations on buying Bitcoin, always a good idea during a bullish market. Do you mean physically bought, invested through a derivative (see my XBT Provider One) thread or trading via SB or CFD?
  2. @Chazza69, Gold is now trading below its 20 DMA so now you may want to consider and I state consider shorting Gold. If it starts moving towards its 50 DMA then you may want to short as early as possible or you may wish to wait until it crosses its 50 DMA. I really cannot see Gold going below $1450 in the current political and economic climate so the maximum move downwards here is around 1000 points but I cannot see this playing out. The 200 DMA is just below $1500 on the daily so even if it went towards this we are looking at around 500 points from here. The maximum I see Gold going down it between the 50 DMA and 100 DMA as remember as days go past the moving averages move too! Traders often forget to factor this in. The question you need to ask is whether there are any better trades out there for you right now? Based on price action and using trend following principles there is no reason to go long right now on Gold but there is a reason to go short. I am not suggesting shorting Gold is necessarily the best trade out there and any significant news could reverse Gold's price action pretty quickly but right now shorting Gold looks more favourable than going long Gold.
  3. Are we seeing the beginning of the turn? By monitoring the price action we are about to find out!
  4. Ripple and Stellar are joining in 'Alt Coin' upward movement following the larger Cryptocurrencies. They were not the best performing Cryptocurrencies in 2019 as the title of this thread suggests and I don't think they will be in 2020 either. I cannot see them beating the returns on Bitcoin, Ether, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin plus other smaller tokens which are not available to trade on IG's platform. However, if Cryptocurrencies remain bullish for a significant period of time then I can see them delivered exceptional returns this year which may well beat most other traditional tradable assets.
  5. The 'Parabolic SAR' is indicating bullishness in the price action for Litecoin as you can see from the chart below.
  6. Bitcoin Cash hit $481.80 overnight. It has surpassed my $450 price target and it is now on course to surpass my $500 price target which is will be a key psychological price level to cross. One should forget their personal opinions, personal emotions and put their ego and personal thoughts to one side and just merely look at the price action and make trading decisions based on the price action rather than whether they think this is junk, garbage, going to crash, going to zero, etc. The returns from the start of 2020 on this specific asset beat most other tradable assets in the world.
  7. Ether is now touching distance from $250 and it hit $248.80 overnight. The 'Awesome Oscillator' is showing 16 back to back bullish green days which I am highlighting below on the chart which is super bullish. As they say 'PRICE ACTION IS KING'.
  8. These products are motoring upwards in line with the underlying asset which they are trying to track. These are high risk derivatives but I like then and use them as they are the closest thing to a Bitcoin and Ether ETF without the need to physically own the Crypto assets.
  9. Bitcoin hit $10,400 today so the gradual increase in price is coming. Overnight during Asian market opening times should be interesting. I am looking for Bitcoin to surpass $10.5k and then go for $11k where it may face some resistance.
  10. My 'gut' and 'instincts' are signalling/indicating to me that there is a potential 'long' trade here for Natural Gas. This is for the 'highest risk' traders only but the risk/reward potential is great. Have a look at the 'Weekly' and 'Monthly' charts and you will appreciate why I think this. Also one could argue that when everyone is bearish on an asset then it can on occasions present exceptional buying opportunities and I think with the potential cold weather we are seeing we could see a sharp turn for Natural Gas when one least expects. Also don't forget that the shorter will want to take their profits at some point and when they do we may see a monumental short covering rally and if you include the potential of new longs joining the party then a large move upwards could materialise regardless of the fundamentals and demand/supply as Commodities have a large speculative nature!
  11. @SAMMYDAVID, That is an interesting idea. I think maybe not just stocks but any asset available to trade on IG's platform. Maybe IG could do a leaderboard in relation to the top ten best performing assets available to trade on IG on a month to month basis so that traders can see the overall return this asset is generating and also the return it is generating on a monthly basis. So this could include any Commodity, Cryptocurrency, Bond, Indices, FX pair, ETF, Stock, etc.
  12. As I stated back in my 9th Jan post in this thread that I was expecting Natural Gas to go into the 1700 price area and that is exactly what has happened. If you now look at the 'Weekly' and 'Monthly' timeframes then you will see that historically this price area offers long term support and the price has bounced upwards from this area. Now of course there is no guarantee this will happen now as the fundamentals and demand/supply situation may be different but based on odds/balance of probability I think the price is more likely to than not go upwards from these price levels. Now that is an assumption based on historical price patterns and therefore I now want the future price action to confirm or reject this assumption.
  13. @Mercury, I stated around 12 months and I am not having a dig or pop at you so please don’t think that. I have just merely questioned. I emphasise the word around! In terms of stocks doubling it all depends on your time horizon and which stocks you are referring to. So for example small caps could over a longer time period of say 10-20 years double from here. Of course I don’t know that they will or not but just saying. Equally next year they could decline by 50%. However stocks could continue rising until after the US elections and that would not be unreasonable to think that. I don’t know how long stocks will continue to rise but every time I have thought that must be end of the bull run the markets have just continued climbing. I don’t know when the markets will turn which is why one must just ride the trend upwards until this course of action changes and that change is confirmed by price action. If you are a longer term investor then any major correction will present a great buying opportunity. For any longer term trader any trend reversal should lead to stop losses being executed to reduce the risk. Then it is about shorting the stocks that are declining. As an investor first I would simply invest lump sums during any major declines and corrections. This has worked a treat for me in the past and I would welcome any major decline so that I can invest more at cheaper prices.
  14. It seems we are seeing some profit taking around the $10k level. I still see Bitcoin going back above $10k once the profit takers have finished.
  15. @dmedin, Apologies if you are already aware of this thread and have read my posts but if not then this may be something which you are interested in. I have read your posts on other threads and in my personal opinion an excellent way to create long term wealth is to create an investment portfolio and invest for the long term using 'Pound Cost Averaging'. For those who are interesting in investing @TrendFollower style then I invest lump sums only on major corrections/dips/drops otherwise I continue investing in several different investment funds/trusts, etc. every month regardless of price action. This strategy means that when you invest lump sums during large price moves downwards when the market recovers so too does your portfolio but with supercharged returns. I have done it and experienced it many times so I am speaking from experience here. I would not suggest investing in individual shares until you have mastered funds, trusts, OEICS, unit trusts, ETF's, etc.
  16. @Mercury, I recall you saying this around 12 months ago and major US indices have made new highs. It all depends on your trading strategy. Those who trade by looking at those assets which are making new all time highs for example would buy near the top. There is nothing in the rule book to suggest that a market cannot keep on moving upwards and continue making new all time highs. It all depends on the fundamentals, technicals, specific asset, market environment/conditions, etc. @dmedin, I personally don't use EWT as it is not required in my trading strategy and also I am not have the technical skills required to use it on a meaningful basis. My trading system does not require it. So one must not force the use of EWT. One should only use it if it can add significant value to your trading system and you have the necessary skills to apply it effectively as if you cannot then it could lead to bad entry/exit points and losses. I have stated this on many occasions and even have a thread on it that one should be successful at long term investing and use it to create long term wealth. That should be the foundation as if one cannot do that and jumps straight into trading without consistently making profits on investing it seems strange to me. I am a big advocate of 'Cost Pound Averaging' but I have tweaked it in that when there are big corrections/big drops I will invest lump sums so that when the upward move occurs it amplifies my returns during bullish upward price action.
  17. @Lorinius, If you are the worst trader with no plan, strategy or system then there is no safer instrument. What is your stock selection strategy? What if you pick an illiquid and high risk stock? An excellent trader can trade higher perceived risk assets like Cryptocurrencies and Commodities so safer or riskier instruments is down to risk perception but people often forget that it is the skill and ability of the trader which is more important in my personal opinion. What is your trading style? Quite a few trading styles require volatility to you do not want liquid markets at the expense of volatility or any meaningful price movements. When you start devising a trading plan things will start coming into place as you question certain things. I keep on saying it but would you start a business without a business plan? No. So why would you start trading without a trading plan? For me that is trading suicide. Before you trade another £1 / $1 / €1 I would spend valuable time reading and researching and building up your knowledge and skills. I would then start devising a trading plan and start thinking about what trading style / methodology you wish to adopt and why. Start thinking about which trading strategies you could use on particular assets and why they would work better than other trading strategies. Put the work in first and build a solid foundation for yourself before you start trading with your hard earned money. I would not recommend you taking any bank loans and paying interest for trading capital which really is a form of leverage unless you are an experienced and highly skilled trader that has a consistently profitable track record over a number of years otherwise it is gambling behaviour which could take you on a path to larger losses and trading destruction. The above are just my personal thoughts so it does not necessarily mean that what I am suggesting is correct or 100% true but it is what I think.
  18. It is nice when you see articles like this reinforcing what my view has been for a while now. Why you need to get into this new technology trend early https://www.trustnet.com/news/7461714/why-you-need-to-get-into-this-new-technology-trend-early
  19. If Bitcoin drives past the 'blue rectangle' price area then it will move towards $11k where it will be faced with some challenges. If we see a new 52 week high then the upside potential is going to be phenomenal. If Bitcoin cannot break above this 52 week high then it could provide disastrous for Bitcoin. So there is still all to play for with Bitcoin.
  20. So Bitcoin finally hit $10.1k overnight. I was fully expecting this based on the current price behaviour. This could potentially create a buying frenzy on Monday and for the rest of the week as buy orders are triggered that have been waiting on the sidelines for this price to be met. There could be buying pressure or equally there be a lot of sells driving the price down due to profit taking. Those same profit takers then may re enter again so there are several scenarios that could play out. I am anticipating further upward price behaviour with large corrections along the way prior to the halving event.
  21. Ether is now showing 13 bullish green days back to back (in a row) on the 'Awesome Oscillator' using the 'daily'. I have to admit Ether is looking very strong to hit $250 very shortly in my personal view.
  22. @Lorinius, First of all make sure you have a trading plan and research and work out which assets you are going to trade and why? Which timeframes you are going to use and why? This will help you to come up with an amount of starting capital required to meet your own aims/objectives/goals which are stipulated in your trading plan. To do the above you are going to have to read and research. You are going to have to come to a decision on which trading style you are going to use and why? When you have done this it will be more clearer to you how much starting trading capital you require and then you must patiently wait until you have the required starting capital before you trade. Whilst waiting you can always practice on the demo account and try out certain things to see if they work or not. I accept trading in live conditions is different but there is no harm getting important data and results whilst you are waiting to have the required starting capital. I think it is very risky starting with say $1000 and then you end up trading assets which you do not want to but are all you can afford. This can lead to ineffective trading in my opinion and inefficient use of trading capital. A detailed and structured trading plan will answer how much trading capital you require. You must then try and obtain/save that amount and be patient and disciplined. In terms of position sizing then as you start on your journey then I think you should keep it as low as you can. The absolute minimum's until you build your skills, knowledge, experience and confidence. As you do and your trading capital account grows you can then in the future look to increase your position sizing based on your risk management strategy but the fact that you are asking this question infers you are at a very early stage and therefore I would advise to keep position sizing as small as you can as you learn. There will be mistakes and losses along the way so you must be mentally prepared for this.
  23. I have one eye on this weekend. I have seen some of the biggest moves occur during weekends when it comes to Bitcoin. I would not be surprised at all to see Bitcoin touch $10k at some point before Monday morning.
  24. My trading plan includes what assets I trade which include Commodities and Cryptocurrencies amongst others and more specifically why. I was just wondering who else has included Commodities and Cryptocurrencies in their trading plan?
  25. So what else is trending strongly? Have a look at the charts of the Cryptocurrencies that are available on IG and you will see they are trending very strongly. I am not suggesting any of you trade Cryptocurrencies but just making the point that there is always likely to be some asset which is either trending strongly upwards or downwards that one can trade using trend following principles. It really does not matter what the asset is if you making trading decisions based on price action. This is where traders let their personal views on an asset get in the way and they end up making trading decisions based on personal opinion/emotion. Bitcoin for example is a prime example of an asset where this occurs. Nobody can doubt that Bitcoin is a great asset to trade based on price movements, volatility and risk/return yet personal thoughts cloud the judgement of certain traders and then ego takes over. We can all be wrong and we are never always right. I have been wrong many times and one must just move on. I am not always right and that is fine. When people were calling Bitcoin to fall to zero and die, I challenged this. Guess what I am still here trading Crypto using trend following principles. When this changes and this is no longer possible then I too will stop and adapt to market conditions.
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