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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. Bitcoin Cash is still hovering around the $300 level as Bitcoin has not decided upon its course of direction. It is struggling at times to stay about $300 for any sustained period and I think Bitcoin will need to cross $11k for Bitcoin to cross $350 price level. There is some strong range bound consolidation taking place but this could be before the price drops further or increases and this is undecided. The only thing that I think increases the odds and probability of the price increasing is the halving event for Bitcoin would could lead to an increase in the price of Bitcoin with 'alt coins' following suit.
  2. If one looks at how Litecoin's price has reacted after its halving event then one can see that it has been downwards. The price went up more than Bitcoin prior to the halving the event, weeks and months in advance. This maybe something which could happen to Bitcoin too. It could go up weeks and months in advance of its halving event and then go down after the halving event. Litecoin may be providing us with a good indicator of future price behaviour. Of course time and price action will confirm this.
  3. When you begin looking at Natural Gas from a fundamental perspective to try and better understand the reason for the recent price action, you begin to uncover certain key points. So first of all, in case some of you are not aware the US is the biggest producer of Natural Gas. It is using more Natural Gas to generate electricity and it is increasing the amount of Natural Gas it is exporting to the rest of the world. Therefore from a 'demand' perspective one could say that recently demand has been increasing. Now historically it is well documented that there was a huge or even enormous supply glut of Natural Gas. This depressed prices. The US has also witnessed certain weather conditions which has affected the production and use of Natural Gas. Now one must not get carried away with the recent price action. There is still a big supply glut of Natural Gas and if demand were to decline then prices could continue to go downwards. This is the risk any trader looking to trade on the 'long' side faces. What we could be seeing is short covering as the number of short positions to long position are around 3 to 1. This is why one must have stop losses in place and one must trade the price action but not get emotionally attached to any potential long term story or narrative that the media presents. It is ok to go 'long' on Natural Gas based on the current potential breakout and price action. It is also ok to go 'long' based on the price going above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA. However this could reverse violently and quickly so stop loss management is important. Should there be any decrease in demand and continued increase in supply then it would not surprise me for Natural Gas to go below $2.00. Right now it seems to be that the price may head towards $2.80 so I am intrigued to see if the price reaches this level. If it does then the $3.00 price level looks a potential possibility.
  4. @elle, Thanks. 👍 Those who do not have a plan will convince themselves and try to convince others that there is no point in having a trading plan. This for me can only lead to losses and being an unsuccessful trader.
  5. Bitcoin is currently trading around the $10.3k area. It is showing a very strong consolidation and range bound phase over the past two months or so which in its own way could prove to be a early bullish indicator. Bitcoin has not gone down to the levels predicted by the 'experts'. It has still not gone down below $8k, $7k or even $5k since its recent upward move towards $12k. The question is why not? Could it be that there are not enough sellers at this moment in time? Could it be that a battle has taken place between 'buyers' and 'seller's and the 'sellers' cannot beat the 'buyers' at this moment in time? Could 'demand' and 'supply' fundamentals be playing a part? Could the upcoming 'halving event' be playing a crucial role in Bitcoin physical acquisition behaviour? There are lots of questions but for now Bitcoin is still proving strong in its quest to remain above the very important psychological level of $10k.
  6. Natural Gas is continuing its breakout price action. It seems to be heading towards 2800 when looking at the 'daily' chart which I include below. It has also crossed its 200 DMA on the 'daily' which is another bullish indicator for a potential long trade on Natural Gas. Of course trading Natural Gas comes with its own unique warnings so one must tread carefully and have robust risk management in place.
  7. @dmedin, No one can answer that question with any accuracy or certainty as none of us can predict the future price action with any accuracy or certainty. If there is one thing I can suggest to you then it is to read about ‘odds’ and ‘probability’ when making trading decisions. If you can read up around this area then you will no longer ask such a question and just trade where the odds and probability increase in your favour of success and profit. There is no guarantee of course but by picking the strongest trending asset to trade and trading with the direction of the trend rather than against it will help to increase your odds and probabilities in your favour. Once you understand the importance of increasing your odds and probabilities, you will be able to focus on signals and indicators which you can then use to help you make more effective trading decisions.
  8. @Caseynotes makes a valid point. I do not know if there will be a recession or not but I learnt a long time ago to ignore the ‘market noise’ when trading and try and trade based on the price action. The media can influence traders in the wrong way leading to wrong trading decisions if they are not careful. If there is a recession and markets decide to take a tumble then you may end up having more short positions open than long. To be honest if you are comfortable trading both long and short then it really should not matter if there is a recession or not from a trading perspective.
  9. @Gaby, I personally don’t read any. I think with the Internet there is so much content available online that one does not need to read magazines. Some of it is free but be careful as if you read the wrong content then it could lead you up the wrong path. For me just plan following the tape on different assets and being in tune with their movements and behaviour is better than most magazines.
  10. @dmedin, This is only a joke so please do not take seriously but why don’t you trade based on the opposite of what TA is telling you? You will then win 74% of the time. LOL. 😀
  11. @nit2wynit, Apologies I am away on business at the moment so I don’t.
  12. If when one looks at a trading plan and it cannot understand how the trader would make a trading decision at any given time to execute a long or short position then for me it is time to re-think how to articulate it in their trading plan. Complexity, using unnecessary jargon and vagueness has no place in a trading plan. Remember, you should be able to give your trading plan to another trader and they just be able to understand at the very least when you place a trade and how you would place it. It should not be a 'literature review' or some form of Shakespearean writing!
  13. @Trevbeats, Have a look at Precious Metals that IG offers on its platform: Gold Silver Platinum Palladium If you risk tolerance can stomach some volatility then you may want to look at: Nickel Soybean Oil Crude Palm Oil In terms of potential trends which could reverse and present a trading opportunity then you may want to monitor the price action of the following: Natural Gas Live Cattle Corn From a trend following perspective I like to trade Commodities using the 'daily' but also looking at the 'weekly' and 'monthly' to support any trading views. I think if you can link the price action with the fundamentals in terms of weather conditions, harvesting, supply and demand fundamentals then it will help increase your chances of trading in the direction of the trend. Also sentiment will play a key role as well. Just look at the sentiment in Gold and precious metals in general.
  14. Bitcoin is still trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's. This is against the notion of the wise that Bitcoin was going down to $8k, $7k and lower. It may still do (I don't know) but why has Bitcoin not gone down to these price levels? Could it be something called 'Support' at certain price levels! The chart 'daily' below illustrates my point above. Now if you look at the MA curves then none of them are sloping sharply downwards. This is encouraging. It means a large or sharp downward move is less likely though still possible. None of them are sloping sharply upwards either because we have been in a correction / consolidation phase so I would not really expect to see that. That will come should the Bitcoin price motor and trend upwards strongly. The MA curves are sloping sideways and they will change / adapt depending on the next Bitcoin trending action.
  15. Bitcoin is still trading at around the $10.5k level. I have stated in the past that these corrections and consolidations are healthy for Bitcoin and necessary. It helps to build the foundation for a sustained move upwards in a bull market. If you look at where the Bitcoin price was on the 1st January and where it is now then the returns and performance are still nothing short of exceptional. Traders get stuck in daily price moves on Bitcoin. The volatility is high for Bitcoin but one must not lose sight of how Bitcoin has performed over the past 12 months.
  16. @AlvinP, Go to the indices section and it is called Australia 200.
  17. If XJO Futures are ASX 200 futures then yes. It is called Australia 200 under indices. Then you have the 'Cash' and 'Futures' options. If it is something else then I apologise but I don't know.
  18. KR1 PLC is a very interesting share. It is listed on the NEX Exchange. It has some very interesting and exciting investments in itself portfolio. It has released the following RNS to the market last week. KR1 plc Investments: Nym, Nexus and Alice https://www.investegate.co.uk/kr1-plc--kr1-/prn/investments--nym--nexus-and-alice/20190904070000P7A8C/
  19. Some more news released this week by the company to the market via RNS. A lot of investors may not be aware that Vela has an equity stake in Argo Blockchain PLC which is listed on the AIM market. However, Vela, has a more diversified portfolio of investments. Vela Technologies Update re. WeShop Limited https://www.investegate.co.uk/vela-technologies--vela-/rns/update-re--weshop-limited/201909060700064236L/ It seems that Vela has bottomed and we are seeing a price floor at the current price levels. The problem Vela has is delivered share price growth as there is little market interest and appetite in the company. It does however have some very interesting investments in its portfolio if one decides to look deeper. There is value and it does certainly seem that it is undervalued by the market (maybe for good reason) but there is certainly some major upside potential but it is only potential.
  20. The news flow just keeps on coming with Argo Blockchain. IG covered it over year ago but there has not been much since from IG. Argo Blockchain PLC Update- Proposed Partnership with Hive Blockchain https://www.investegate.co.uk/argo-blockchain-plc--arb-/rns/update--proposed-partnership-with-hive-blockchain/201909030700038812K/ Based on recent positive news flow and positive price action I am surprised IG have been quiet on this particular company. Below is the recently chart 'daily' showing the price moves building an upward trend.
  21. Natural Gas seems to have broken its recent trading range. Whether this is a false breakout time will tell. At the moment it is trading above its 20, 50 and 100 DMA's and approaching its 200 DMA based on the 'daily' timeframe / chart. This is bullish short term. I would like to see the moving average curves slope upwards for confirmation but this is an asset if you get in early and are right in the direction of the trade then can reap big rewards. It is very volatile and I have been burnt before so this is not an asset that novice or inexperienced in trading commodities should dabble in. I include the 'daily' chart below to illustrate my MA's point above. Now one must look at the fundamentals to see if one can begin to understand the reason for the recent potential price breakout from the trading range. From a fundamental perspective, it is well documents that China's Natural Gas demand has been booming for years. The problem is the large supply glut in the US. The EIA recently reported an increase in the supply of domestic Natural Gas rose by 84 billion cubic feet for the week. There has been hotter temperatures recorded in the US which may have boosted Natural Gas prices short term. One thing to remember is that any upside move could be related to short covering as there will be a lot of short contracts that will need to unwind in the months ahead. One should keep monitoring the price action and try to ensure any moves make sense and are supported by fundamentals as this is what large upwards rallies in Natural Gas are based on. The speculation comes a little bit later. The herd even later. It is about identifying the potential strongest trending assets as early as possible but they will not all be successful. Therefore when using this approach in Commodities I find it is important to ensure some fundamental analysis is conducted so one can understand if the price move is backed by a strong narrative which makes sense. Weather and Supply and Demand are the two key concepts one must investigate when looking at trading Natural Gas both on the long and short side.
  22. @Gain, For UK Spread Betting, you would go under the Cryptocurrency section and trade the Cryptocurrency (like any other asset) on either the long (buy) or short (sell) side. Under this section you can pick the different Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin that IG offers its clients. Feel free to have a look at my Bitcoin Trend Following and Bitcoin Price Behaviour threads if you feel it may be of interest to you.
  23. Or internet connection problems at your end.
  24. @jaggupta, I am not IT expert but it could be your browser.
  25. @adish, You can become a U.K. citizen. LOL 😂
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