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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. I am not normally a big fan of MoneyWeek or Dominic Frisby but this article is in relation to two things which I am involved in. One is Bitcoin and the other is Trend Following. Is it time to buy bitcoin? This chart suggests it is https://moneyweek.com/investments/alternative-finance/bitcoin/600768/buy-bitcoin-trading-system
  2. I see Bitcoin's price and trend to continue into the 'blue rectangle' which I highlight on the 'daily' chart below:
  3. Ether is up over 60% since the start of the year. If you look at the 'Awesome Oscillator' then it has has 11 bullish green days in a row.
  4. I much prefer this current price behaviour of Bitcoin. It is making a series of 'Higher Lows' and 'Higher Highs' on the daily. This is much healthier than just an upward rocket like movement which then comes crashing down. The current trend may prove to be more sustainable with of course large corrections along the way but it could be different from past trends.
  5. So some of you may be wondering why is Bitcoin Cash looking more bullish than the other Cryptocurrencies available on IG? I have mentioned this before in previous posts (not sure which thread) but some of you may not be aware that Bitcoin Cash is 'halving' in April a month before Bitcoin itself. If memory serves me correct it is around 8th April 2020 but please do not quote me on that.
  6. The start of 2020 belong to Cryptocurrencies in terms of returns generated. They absolutely smash any other asset class to pieces. There is no an asset class which can touch Crypto for January 2020 and the start of February 2020. There are some very smart people working in Crypto / Blockchain space right now. They are being supported by billionaires and very large companies. I don't think Bitcoin is going to die anytime soon. If anything these smart people will find a way to improve it, adapt it and enhance it so that it can become an important part of the digital architecture and an integral part of the digital landscape. Yes certain other Cryptos may well die and crash to zero but I think the likes of Bitcoin and Ether are going to improve immensely over this next decade and get better and stronger.
  7. If you look at my post above then I was anticipating that psychological price of $200 and it seems Ether hit $205.90. I am expecting further gains overnight with Asia joining in the frenzy.
  8. Stellar and Ripple seem to be behaving more like party participants and guests rather than the hosts. The main host is Bitcoin of course but the key guests seem to be Bitcoin Cash, Ether and Litecoin. Ripple and Stellar seem to be joining in the party without making much noise.
  9. Litecoin has plenty of upside potential and for me it could easily rise to $100 if Bitcoin et al continue rising in the phenomenal rate in which they are right now.
  10. I think Bitcoin is getting very close to hitting $10k. It has strong momentum behind it right now after a period of consolidation and I think it is inevitable that $10k will be hit soon.
  11. I love the 'Lower Lows' and 'Higher Highs' being formed on the 'daily' after the period of consolidation. It seems like Bitcoin is going to trend towards and past $10k shortly.
  12. Bitcoin Cash seems to be leading the current bullish Crypto charge. It seems $450 is on the cards and $500 could be pretty soon. The 'Parabolic SAR' is showing bullishness as highlighted below:
  13. Argo Blockchain PLC January Operational Update https://www.investegate.co.uk/argo-blockchain-plc--arb-/rns/january-operational-update/202002040700118245B/
  14. @Spandy, First of all not all Gap's are closed. Therefore you need to identify which are the assets where the gaps are closed the most. Now you can only do this on a historical basis and then use past patterns and trends to try and help you identity potential gaps which are likely to be closed in the future. So try and identify which assets have a higher statistical rate of gap closures over a historical time period and possibly look to trade those assets if you feel comfortable trading them. So you could conduct some research and see which top three trading assets have had the most gaps filled in say the past 1 year, 5 years and 10 years and see which three assets these are.
  15. @Mercury, I am sure there are lots of reports and studies in this area. Some will conflict with others. Certain institutes will have evidence supporting their view and others will also have evidence supporting their claims. I live in the UK so I am going to use the NHS as a credible source rather than some article or report in a publication. https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/eat-well/are-sweeteners-safe/ Now each can make their own minds up as I am sure there will be some report will which disagree with the NHS stance. I think you make a very interesting point. You yourself are using very little Sugar these days. You have given up on Cola which historically was full of Sugar and you feel better for it. There will be many others who have done the same, are doing the same and will do the same. I agree with the supply and demand fundamental equation. I agree that will drive prices but supply and demand fundamentals can change hence prices change. I am not a long term bull on Sugar. I do think short to medium term we could see a rise in Sugar prices.
  16. @Chazza69, I do not see a valid reason to short Gold right now at this juncture from a trend following perspective. You may be right to short Gold only time and price action will confirm that but right now Gold is just as likely to go up as it is to go down. All it will take is further bad news and an increase to political risk and economic risk for Gold to move further upwards. From a trend following perspective Gold on the 'daily' is currently trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's so I am not sure I would want to short an asset which is trending upwards clearly with potential to continue trending upwards should their be further world shocks.
  17. The question I am being asked via personal messages is whether you should allocate a small amount of capital in your investment portfolio to Bitcoin? I think more higher risk and aggressive traders should def. trade the price movement for Bitcoin. In terms of investing then it all depends on your risk tolerance. I do have a small allocation to Bitcoin and Ether via XBT Provider (please see my XBT Provider One thread) as I believe Bitcoin will hit higher prices in the future and I invested in these a few years ago and I have always remained in profit even after the massive drops because I got in when Bitcoin was a lot cheaper. If you are a high risk capital growth investor then you could consider a maximum of 1% of your portfolio allocated to Bitcoin and I mean maximum but you must be an experienced investor who has a high risk level tolerance and understands Cryptocurrencies. Otherwise absolutely do not go anywhere near Bitcoin in your investment portfolios.
  18. We may see a drop in Frontier Markets is there is a 'Risk Off' scenario around the world that sees capital shift to Gold and Bonds. Should this materialise then there could be a phenomenal opportunity for getting into 'Frontier Markets' at cheap prices and lower valuations with a long term view of 5 to 10 years and longer.
  19. @dmedin, We are seeing a decline in the use of Sugar across the world. There are now other substitutes which are being used for sweetness in foods and drinks. These are more healthier so you make a valid point. That is why longer term the trend will be down for Sugar. However, for the short term and medium term there is potential for a rise in Sugar prices but I think with the current supply issues it is looking more unlikely for the medium term unless the supply fundamentals change dramatically. This is just my current thought but in terms of trading one must trade on the current price action and if people are already long then ok if there is a sharp drop their stop losses will trigger and they should exit with a profit. For those who are looking to enter the trade then right now is not a good time as the next direction could be either way and it is unclear at this specific moment in time.
  20. @Chazza69, Let us see. I think the Corona Virus will certainly help the Gold price. If things get worse and it starts spreading significantly around the world then this could cause fear and panic in the markets which could result in the Gold price increasing. That narrative/backdrop could be the catalyst for Gold.
  21. @dmedin, You could be right, I simply don't know. I don't have a very strong bullish feeling about Gold though I accept it could storm upwards should the right conditions prevail. For Gold to drive upwards and trend strongly on the upside from here it needs risk, uncertainty and panic in the markets. It needs Bonds to continue moving upwards and stocks to continue declining. It needs economic, political and business risk to increase significantly. If that happens then I would be extremely bullish about Gold but if it does not then not.
  22. @Mercury, I was reading your latest post on your thread and I agree with your view that Gold will need a catalyst and that catalyst will most likely result in stocks declining. That catalyst will most likely be some form of negative news in relation to economics, business confidence, political risks, etc.
  23. @cheviot, Yes, I saw that too but there are times when a commodity is in a bullish uptrend that gaps are not filled and in an uptrend that can be a bullish signal. I am not suggesting that it will not come back and be filled but it does not always happen. I think it is likely to based on the rise we have seen and the correction due but for some it may be a speculative short in anticipation of this.
  24. Arabica Coffee has witnessed an extremely sharp decline in its price. A great shorting opportunity. This to me feels like Coffee had a lot of speculative capital which piled in. Commodities generally do attract a high level of speculative capital hence the volatility that at times can be seen. So what the key points to consider here? Well from a fundamental perspective Coffee we know that there is likely to be an increase in Brazilian production. We are looking at the possibility of a record crop in Brazil later this year and is reported that there is a rise ICE Exchange stocks. There is also a strong likelihood of the global supply balance being swing from a supply deficit into a supply surplus. There was hot weather in late 2019 and I think this could keep Coffee prices suppressed for a while yet. I do not think the fundamentals support a large longer rise in Coffee prices just yet. From my personal experience in trading commodities such trends only come when strong technicals are supported by strong fundamentals and there is a long term narrative and backdrop which strongly supports the price action and trend. I am not seeing that currently in Arabica Coffee.
  25. If you look at my previous post (above) then you will see that I was 'anticipating' this turn downwards. Live Cattle is looking like a fantastic shorting opportunity. It is heading towards my 'blue rectangle'. Of course I cannot guarantee that it will and nor do I know with any certainty that it will. Part of my trading strategy is to identify those assets which have the potential to be the 'strongest trending assets' in a given direction whether that be upwards or downwards and to do this at the earliest opportunity possible. I don't care what the asset is. A lot of people get hung up by Crypto being junk or margin requirements on certain commodities. Others get fixated with overnight charges. Each trader has to work out what is an effective and efficient trading decision for them based on their personal circumstances. Live Cattle may not be the sexiest commodity to trade but if its price does decline to that 'blue rectangle' on the chart above then it becomes a fantastic trading opportunity for those who wish to partake and take advantage. If it does not then it does not. You cannot be right all the time as a trader and you cannot anticipate or assume correctly all the time and I am happy and comfortable that I will be wrong from time to time. That is part of trading and is the inherent risk within my aggressive and more adventurous trading style.
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