Mercury

Saw the same @Caseynotes the trade, if you want it, will be on a firm breakout of this Triangle consolidation. It is getting very near the end now, which makes it troubling as received wisdom in charting circles is the breakout should occur before roughly 2/3 of the Triangle is travelled. The closer the market gets to the end the less reliable the formation is. So Bitcoin, who knows? Trading is as much about the potential points on offer as anything else. I would not be interested in a downside move, there are way better Bear scenarios about. Also what happens to a trade if Bitcoin collapses? Does it pay out? So the only interesting trade is a rally out of the Triangle in the scenario that @TrendFollower has painted. Whether this would be as a safe haven or pure speculation who knows... Too many who knows for my taste.

It will be interesting to watch what happens in the scenario you paint @TrendFollower but I wouldn't trade it myself. I think the short term movements around things like the Trump election, Brexit vote and trade war rhetoric is too short term to draw any conclusions about safe havens. We haven't really had a major bear move yet that would spark serious worry, not since cryptos came to the fore. If you look at precious metals over the long term you will not necessarily see a clear correlation to stocks. Metals all ran up in the great commodity bubble to the 2011 peak and then dropped again until the 2016 turn but that does not map nicely to stocks for instance. Bitcoin only got going into its bubble in 2017 and has been spectacular (both ways!). But the technicals suggest a stronger case for Bitcoin to fall further whereas for precious metals it is more balances with, in my view, a higher probability of precious metal strength. It would be interesting to know the total asset class value of Cryptos vs Bond, Stocks and of course FX. If Cryptos are to become a safe haven then that must be the case for more than just a few early adopters. Surely in this case Bitcoins would attain levels way, way above 10000 and even the 20000 high? I have seen some outlandish valuations in the past around this topic. 100,000+ But for Cryptos to actual work they must become money. This kind of valuation level means it will never become money. So it is self defeating. This is often the case, in my experience, with new tech. The dream is not fully thought through, too idealistic. We saw that during the first dotcom bubble. Out of the ashes of the crash and burn comes a more mature and sensible approach (Google for example rather than AOL...). It is a perpetual cycle because human nature is what it is. This is why I am almost 100% sure Cryptos will fail this time. And next time I expect the technology to be used by governments to effect their long held desire to eliminate paper money...

As with all USD pairs GBP is retracing a bit this morning but this market has rallied harder than others so I am more confident that the medium term (say to end Oct) direction is up. However I cannot say how far the retrace will go, or whether it will turn quickly and breeze through the upper resistance. GBP is always a bit more spiky than EUR and especially so now with Brexit jitters. My approach here is to hold what I have ans seek better new entry set ups elsewhere (e.g. EUR and AUD).

Got a nice breakout through tram-lines and resistance on AUD overnight, which adds weight to the rally argument. Seeing the same retrace as in other markets but there is a bit more firmness about the set up here vs EURUSD for instance. The retrace could retest the resistance break (Fib50%) OR even go down to test the tramline break (Fib62%) before a strong rally move.

I was hoping the Nikkei would be stronger over night and show us a breakout but didn't happen. On the plus side it didn't capitulate either so back to Europe and the US. I expected, and we are getting, a small retrace to set up a rally (assuming the market doesn't break down of course). On the FTSE100 I am seeing the retrace on opening, which may test the LT trend-line again around about 7200 I am guessing. The best trade set up for me is a strong break of the upper tram-line and resistance zone after a bounce of the LT trend-line. We are also seeing associated retrace action on FX pairs.

Thought provoking! I like that! Just need to do the following thought: Only risk what you can afford to lose Keep stops at sensible points and NEVER EVER move them. Keep an eye on cross markets (other USD pairs, especially EURUSD, and I'd like to see precious metals and main indices moving up strongly over the next few hours) Don't be tempted to pyramid until your initial trades are secure.

Dangerous times though, if this market is set to retrace to the 13,800ish level it needs to get on with it. I'd need to see a strong rally up to around the 13,350 area initially now and then perhaps some consolidation there before a final push on up. Need to see the AUDUSD push on fast and EURUSD is critical for the overall USD Bearishness.

One watch out! Resistance must be broken strongly or there is a risk of a fall back to the 7000 level.

AUDUSD made a fresh high and is trying to poke through near term resistance after a strong Tram-line breakout in line with other USD pairs.

GBPUSD makes a fresh high after a Triangle breakout retest. A push through near term resistance is further bullish evidence. EURUSD also turned, not yet confirmed.

FTSE100 touched 7184 twice before rallying, one point below my turn area and right on the LT supporting trend-line.

I agree with @jay FWIW. I see only long term downside as this iteration of crypto dies to be reborn as something more sustainable. You never want to be a first mover in tech, unless you get in early and exit after the catch up rush, but that has already happened...

Maybe, although I see the support levels a bit further down on the Daily chart if you look back a bit further in time. There is support around about the LT trend-line but a temporary spike through break and recovery (weekly chart view) to the next support level around the Fib 76/78% is also a candidate, especially on US indices volatility. There are a lot of set up scenarios here, including "boom!" but because I haven't see NMD at the top I don't see the big drop yet. Also there is PMD building and lots of support so I am minded to stay on the side of looking for the bounce into a rally phase rather than take shorts at this juncture. A strong and confirmed break through LT support would change that but no there yet.

There is one additional scenario I thought worth sharing, which fits better with my assessment of Silver. That is a temporary breakthrough LT trend-line support to complete an A-B-C retrace at blue 2, Fib 76/78%, but does not breach the mid Sept lows and rallies away. This fits better with the EW labeling also.

Note the PMD is even stronger now on the FTSE 1 hour with the current leg down. Also watch out because the trend-lines from the longer term chart do not map onto short term charts accurately (very frustrating) and this FTSE trend-line is on the weekly chart so it can penetrate and recover over the rest of the week and still be valid. A touch and bounce around 7185 would be perfect...

Yeah, was unlikely to be a hard retrace so now I am looking to the LT supporting Trend-line. Looks like we are coming up on a potential USD turning point too, will they swing in a coterminous fashion of blast through into a full on Bear? This is a very important point in the market I feel!

BTW, I should add, whether we see a retrace on this pair or not, which is debatable, a firm break through the LT trend-line support is an interesting time for Short trading. Watch out for a break and retest through. Best set up is a retrace as per my blue arrows on the chart but a break-through of LT support is also a good point to consider a trade.

The thing is Trump is anti-globalisation, the Brexit thing (yeah I said it!), or really the EU/Euro fatal issues, immigration pressures, rise in nationalism (whether they get into power or not), BRIC weakness, Tax issues around mega companies paying little or no tax in countries where they operate, etc etc all point to a massive problem with globalisation. And when you consider the whole house of cards is being propped up by Central Bank policy rather than fundamentals of good business and this is being withdrawn, well...

I got the green tramlines on my daily chart wrong, the lower one was too weak in terms of good touches, should have known. Still that is what price discovery is all about, and good money management of course. I closed out all my Longs when I saw that the break of the green tram-line was weak and Silver went into reverse, always pays to watch cross market action. The market came back down to my long term trend-line and stalled there. It is worth noting that the LT trend-line is drawn on the monthly chart so it can be penetrated some way on shorter time-frames and still hold, so long as by the end of the month it is back above or close to. This also means you cannot rely on it as a turning point on shorter time-frames, it is indicative only. Still this zone is clearly a battleground for Bears and Bulls with 3 tests so far, including the mid Sept big one. I am expecting another, near term and, as mentioned previously, whether this zone holds or is broken will be a key factor in medium term prognosis for Gold (and Silver). On my Daily chart I now have much better tram-lines, actually describing a Triangle (they are not running parallel). My overall assessment is unchanged in that there are 2 main scenarios as follows: Hold and rally in or around the LT trend-line with an eventual breakout of the Triangle into a strong rally Break through the LT trend-line and associated support zone bringing up a lower Wave 2 retrace point (Purple 2) and then rally OR a full on Bear phase (but that latter is a ways off yet and doesn't fit my cross market assessments so parked but not discounted) The strong PMD on Daily charts for both Gold and Silver are supportive of a turn and rally scenario. Silver in particular has made a tram-line break that was tested a couple of times and held. I would not be surprised to see Silver retest this level around the Fib 76/78% again before the rally gets going. Therefore we might also expect another short time-frame test of support on Gold. If precious metals do hold and rally there is no knowing how high they will go if we also see a stocks crash. I can foresee the precious metals rally beginning ahead of a stocks top out as nerves drive investors to hedge their exposures but greed stops them from dumping stocks yet.

If anyone is trading EUR/USD or GBP/USD it may be worth noting that EURGBP has just rallied away from a long term supporting trend-line with PMD on 4 and 1 hour charts. I expect a period of GBP weakness for a while until the EURGBP bear resumes. For both EURUSD and GBPUSD this just means that GBP would come down further in the short term as both are trending down at present.

I always find it interesting @Caseynotesthat open markets are seemingly stalled by out of hours trading on bigger markets... To me this is a clear example that stocks are not being bought based on the prospects on individual companies but rather on financial engineering of share price and central bank manipulations. This will end very badly indeed in my view.

I agree @Caseynotes very strong pin bar rejections of the Bearish move on 3 major US indices, not conclusive in and of itself but indicative. We may get some downward action on open today as they have been off for 3 days so I expect a bit of volatility around the opening bell. Just goes to show a quiet day can be the time to watch carefully... As for the FTSE, I think the 11 Sept low is the key here. Price stayed just above it yesterday and it it holds and rallies from here that will be a good sign for a strong rally. Even if it goes below it can still bounce of the lower supporting trend-line (I'll post more details on my FTSE thread in a tick). All-in-all it looks like the race to the top may be back on but watch out for that US volatility. FTSE this morning might be the better trade.

Recent price action could indicate an early reversal turn for AUDUSD with a tram-line break. However the tram-line pair s a bit weak in my view and the EW count suggest another leg down as a better set-up. There is PMD on 1 hour chart but not really present on 4 hour chart. I have another pair of tram-lines from the 4 hour chart (blue) that fits with the final leg down scenario (red arrows). Having said all that the break of the grey 1 hour trams offered a very low risk trade with stops just below the recent lows only a handful of point away. A confirmed break of the upper 4 hour tram-line would seal the turn but a rejection at or near this point would suggest the final leg down scenario with a potential end in or around the 7,000 mark as the most likely.

Thanks for that @cryptotrader, before I answer your very good and relevant question, can I ask what you do trade (the name suggests cryptos of course...). Also interested in your too many influencers comment, if you care to open a new thread on that in another area I would be interested in that topic. Regarding the drawing of lines there are 2 main schools of thought in my experience (there may be more I guess). draw lines on the close of a bar (i.e. where price denotes the culmination of the bull/bear engagement) draw lines on the tail end (i.e. the maximum price points) I will generally go conservative with method #2 but I also use my personal experience of charting to find a best fit (most touches on a line), which could incorporate a combination of the above and even some fake breakouts. There is a lot of reading and educational material about on charting and a must if anyone wants to use these techniques but as ever there is no substitute for learning by doing. Some markets are quite smooth (the larger ones like SP500, EURUSD, Gold etc). Others can be more spiky (like GBPUSD, Silver, Oil). It depends on size and whether there are a few big influencers (like Oil). This is relevant to you point about why you do not trade FX. When drawing chart objects I do consider this aspect by tolerating more fake breakouts and spike-throughs on the more volatile markets, also need wider stops for actual trading of course.