cheviot
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Posts posted by cheviot
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The markets need to hold DJ 26600 or so SP 3070 and Dax 12200 . Key Fib levels and original supports.....
In my view they are key supports. The action this morning is climactic....Final panic etc. I find myself choice buying DJ Apple and FTSE .....Think they are worth laying down like fine wines for the summer....
worthy of note......TB ca nt get past 1.8% ...and gold has run out of steam......Yen is weakening...and dollar bid again.
Buy low and sell high....Question is WHERE is that ???
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48 minutes ago, dmedin said:
It's a bloodbath out there ...
True very true .....Yes I mnow a fully fledged bull ....do God help you .... I asked my dogs and they said buy it....And they are much better at this game than me
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T Bond getting sold off ( higher yields )....I think that will bounce the equity markets up.....Been short forever and took it all back too##### early, now net long as i recon we ve done the full retrace....To the exit of the DJ wedge.....Hit it and is bouncing now....
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13 minutes ago, dmedin said:
I predict that my 3400 U.S. 500 September call will break even
Now s the time to buy it ....on the swing
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Treasuries and gold stopped dead. This all about DJ 200 day ma at 27540 (close above ?) and long rum trend line holding....Now net long so market bound to collapse !
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Quick tip......Somebody buys sterling at every month end to the minute.....Has happened 2 months in a row so far , £ bid again.....Obviously someone who sells all month long and has to pull it in at every month end.....
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2 hours ago, dmedin said:
Have you ever managed to make money from it? (Not being rude to you personally, but I do still think it's a mug's game and the only money to be made is in broker's fees, commissions etc hahaha)
You have to work at it....
Biggest successes have been buying FTSE a few times, cable and cable options, $yen
Biggest **** kickings.....SWFR /$ the looney...C$...well named. SP 500 ( I chickened out of the 2018 rally ) I was short , and gave in about a week before it collapsed....😢
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13 minutes ago, dmedin said:
So what are all these TA books, sites, courses etc about?
Either they are a useful aid to read the market at least sometimes or they are completely useless?
Might as get my pet monkey to throw a dart for me ...
🤔
If i want to drive from London to Edinburgh....Thats my fundamental wish/view.
I get out a map and drive along the appropriate routes to do it....Thats TA
So trading is the same......For particular reasons i wont repeat here...I thought the US market was a sell...for fundamental reasons etc etc ....Caseynotes disagreed and so did a pile of other people....no matter,
So I wanted to be short the market.....I used TA to get in and with a bit of gut feel and TA I ll get out....But it was my fundamental belief that started me out with the position i took. (and still have chunks of ).
So use TA the same....you take a view and use TA to enter/exit.......
....or alternatively you Black Box trade......React only to computer driven signals and be disciplined about it.
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17 hours ago, HPbrand said:
1984? Blimey. You have lived through many of the peaks and troughs.
Yes I joined my first dealing room in 1984. prop. trading FX, then went inter bank dealing in a big London dealing room as a cable trader.....I do nt remember much of the dot com crash,,,, But I ve been privately trading p/a since around 2004....Mmm seen all the crashes /bear markets/corrections.... Nothing changes.....Fear and greed ....
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1 hour ago, dmedin said:
Back to being short, oh I am so dumb, I am so stupid, I am so hopeless.
TBH we can all f####k it up . I was limit short Sp and Apple and have been for weeks.....Then last friday pm started f###ing about putting in hedges against my short equity....i.e. long FTSE ....So I was nett short and still am but am adding to my long ftse on dips....and selling gold and TB as hedges.....All thats happening is...Yes... I ve protected my equity in a way but diluted the profit of being short US
The way I trade is add to shorts on the way up and gradually buy in on the way down....Its averageing into positions.... Rather than one big hit at something....I.e. at the moment i like £ ...I think its bottoming out well here....So I m just adding little by little.....
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3 hours ago, Caseynotes said:
New cases chart;
I do nt think the recent sell off is China related.....I think its the shock that its outside China and not contained....i.e. Italy S Korea Iran etc.....
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What do y'all think of $ yen as a buy $ here after pullback...Yen 110.50
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35 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Holy Moly the selling just won't stop ... 😱
Only T Bonds , silver and Gold...only things up on the day.
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There s going to be some WHOPPING BIG margin calls tonight.....every INDX is down and so is every commodity across the world !! I ca nt remember that happening before....since I started in 1984 ....
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5 th Wave triangle on US SP . I ve been banging on about this for 5 weeks , so we ve had the top....The bottom of the trumpet is logically around SP 3140 level....also a key Fib correction level.... Tea and dogs walked i think.
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T bonds TOP ????? All you equity bulls will be hoping it is !
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Sort of day when I do nt even get up to make a cuppa or the dogs get walked...You suddenly realise you ve been at it for hours..........😓
or have a pee 😟😨
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Markets all at sea....just got Apple at $290.70 to cover short....did nt even see it
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4 hours ago, HPbrand said:
Dow already shot down past 28400. I think if it stay below 28400 this week, we are heading much further south than your 28165 support.
The Dow hit 28000 over the week end 2 weeks ago, prior to last attempt at 29400. Few would have traded it though.
The equity market when the bond market turns......watch 20200 on the T Bond. Ultra march futures.. That should be the top also $1690 odd for gold.
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All you little bullies are rather quiet...Have you gone on holiday , while us bears have a romp around your picnic ?
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15 hours ago, dmedin said:
I've given up three months' worth of gains and then some. Learn to love the trading game, it's for losers!
Markets are like elastic bands. They stretch and stretch and stretch and then suddenly they go ping......Usually hurting your opposite finger that is still holding the band.
The US stock market (as I ve been ranting on for the last 5-6 weeks ) is overbought and over cooked. Its an elastic band that is snapping. It ll probably over do the down side as it swings around trying to find its sea legs again.....
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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:
Still another 8 years of bull market to go, yaaay. It must be so coz everyone knows TA is king.
Prof. Kondratieff , 1920 s economist studied the world s economy going back to the 18 th C. He found the economy the go in waves, and super cycles. Hence Kondratieff waves.....Fibonacci used a sequence we all know and love 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 etc and the ratios there by refined from them.
The only thing I d say is that the bull market starts when the bear trend stops, so in essence your time periods need to be re-adjusted.
2009 was the bottom of the last bear market ( i.e falling prices), which means we are in year 11 of this bull phase. Fibonacci would look for year 13 i.e. 2022.
I would not say TA is King. If you decide what fundamentals are important , then use TA as a road map. to enter and exit the market.
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Apple beginning to fall out of its tree (triangle). Expect pullback to $293 or $275.
_20200222_08_28.png.321672225eee5daf58f9d388f176b5b1.png)
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Weekly wheat update......When is a rally not a rally? When its a B wave correction....The rally from wheat mid week did nt 'smell' right. And now the market shas given up most of its gain to look like another test of $536....Month end can be a drama as book squaring pushes the market around. Usually month ends have been a cause for a rally....but .....My tummy tells me it could push lower first.....as Cv2019 takes a toll and a strong dollar....
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_20200222_08_28.png.321672225eee5daf58f9d388f176b5b1.png)
Indices
in Indices and Macro Events
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JESS ........TWO BARKS FOR BUY ONE BARK FOR SELL ???