cheviot
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Posts posted by cheviot
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Hi folks ,
Any of you pop pickers looking at US ag complex.
Referring always to spot :
US wheat :
Fundamental s and d ....Tight but recent lack of Chinese purchases and threat of Cv has caused a bit of steam to come out of the bulls.
I see it like this. The current lack lustre pullback will end around 545-558. I do nt see it taking out 545 on a closing basis. I think given the true s and d that we will revisit 595 possibly taking that out to run to 630...Could be in May when old crop is getting scarce.
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Top of the Boris election bounce . Think FTSE well supported around 7400
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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:
Markets not impressed with the Fed and virus fears heighten as China sees a big uptick in daily reported cases and Fed also warn of risks to economy in their FOMC report.
https://www.seeitmarket.com/coronavirus-historical-stock-market-performance-with-pandemics/
Do nt forget though....In 2003 the markets had nt been so o/bought and also in 2003 was the Iraq war.....so it s not clear evidence.
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Doctor Doctor !! I m feeling slightly friendly to FTSE 100 at 7400 , there s something wrong with me ...
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5 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:
excellent, we could do with a new wheat thread you should start one up, and best of all I know nothing about the wheat market 😳
Sometimes I wish I did nt either. I trade it for 2 reasons....It diversifies what i m doing in financials (usually) , and my background is farming anyway.
So yes i might start a Beans wheat corn thread....There are a few IG clients who trade it , looking at their client interest board.....
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13 minutes ago, cheviot said:
Yeah its easy to do....Scrambled out of my long £ for £1 profit .....I start making stupid ,mistakes when I think i can walk on water ! A good run can sometimes end in disaster...usually me buying £ or starting to trade the C$ or SWFR !!
I ve had a good few hits on the T Bond , and still short SP 500 and f'''''##ing Apple...although it could nt break top Bolinger band and my long term Raff channel. So may be there s hope yet...😅
Had a nice few goes at wheat too...
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7 hours ago, dmedin said:
I've been so stupid the last couple of days trading when I shouldn't have. Lost a little bit but still in the game lol
Yeah its easy to do....Scrambled out of my long £ for £1 profit .....I start making stupid ,mistakes when I think i can walk on water ! A good run can sometimes end in disaster...usually me buying £ or starting to trade the C$ or SWFR !!
I ve had a good few hits on the T Bond , and still short SP 500 and f'''''##ing Apple...although it could nt break top Bolinger band and my long term Raff channel. So may be there s hope yet...😅
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13 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Any of you actually traded the last couple of days?
Yes chief....Took back some SP short on the 50 day ma...and looking to re-instate in the gap. 3293 ish.
Trading Apple as well...enjoying getting stuffed stupid !!!!!
My only consellation is a long term Raff channel and top of a bollinger band seems to be holding it down......Its 92% on the RSI weekly.....I do nt think I ve ever seen any instrument hold at that level before...#
Long a bit of £ to off set my personal disappointment of no rate cut...
How you getting on ?
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1 hour ago, Caseynotes said:
And looking at the weekend S&P there doesn't seem to be any panic selling but rather a normal correction on the back of new news regarding a spreading virus which may have an affect on near term economics, very reasonable I would have thought.
Steady nett selling is more likely , with relief rallies. Old fashioned non techy charting would suggest that we had a key day reversal in SP 500 on Friday so that is the end of that trend....
'The known knowns , the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns....' Never a truer word spoken.
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54 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:
etail short/long net positions for the last 3 months. The HERD have been consistently SHORT for the last 3 months of this continuous up trend, and not just a little, a lot, look at the number
The shorts are n't short, they are hedging their cash positions.
If you care to look at the put/call ratio last week it slipped into record negative territory, i.e The option market was massively long (middle of last week). Volatitility also hit recent lows last week ( now moving rapidly higher)
Anyway. The markets now have to re-adjust their sights .....Is 2020 now going to be a year when the global economy falls short of expectations and P/e are way over cooked or is this just a bump in the road?
The bond markets have moved in to 'recession mode' with falling rates , the next stop for the ten year is around 1.55% , with 2 s 10s falling back to around 20 bp as of friday.
The fundamentals and the technicals within the market may lock horns to produce a heady mixture. Markets and people behave irrationally. In this case it is not the number of fatalities, it is how people react to an external threat such as this virus. And how they react economically.
Viruses are un-predicatable. But the most intractable problem is : Humans facing fear of health problems behave differently economically to ones going about their 'normal' business. Purchasing new i-phones and other goods become irrelevant to whether you and those you care about are under a health threat. Will the 40+ million people in Hubei be going to work, spending money on 'stuff' ....or will the very essence off living become paramount. Food, water, staying alive...After that comes the economic fall out....Chinese debt (within secondary banks) has been growing at an astonishing rate.
In Dec 2018 the market was way over pessimistic ( on reasonable fundamentals) , In Jan 2020 it got itself way over optimistic, (on fundamentals that were not much better other than the Fed pumping in liquidity at the short end which has ended up stuffed into the equity market) like a sling shot, the US 500 will most likely go back to pessimism mode and price in a tough year ....Test 3000 possibly 2600 or 2200 .
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On 22/01/2020 at 14:59, Caseynotes said:
imagine spending 3 months trying to short that chart 😭🚑🛌
I have tried not to be personal on this blog. Exactly a week ago I predicted a top to the market...That is /was my opinion and I still believe we have a medium term top to certainly the US markets for all the valid reasons I have stated before.
I realise Casey notes I have a different opinion to you. Your replies have been ridiculing me at best .....I have seen many market crashes over 30 years of trading FX/indx markets. I have described from personal first hand experience, that following the herd can be a precarious path. A dealing room in full panic mode, reacts with fear ....sell at any cost... positions so large and so one way , institutions ca not get out. Hence the market hits an air pocket where there is literally panic.
So in future when somebody disagrees with you , perhaps listen to their arguments first...before ridiculing them.
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Key day reversal for SP 500 IF US close below 3316.7 ..
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So who s right : T Bonds are bid up showing the way to a weaker economy, stocks are also bid showing a stronger economy....????? Whichever way T Bonds break (out of current range)
will push equities 'tother way....
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The important thing is....Buy LOW and sell HIGH....That may be over 5 minutes or 5 years....Have a trading strategy and stick to it.... Some markets are great for 5 minutes Yen/Eu, gold for example.....Others take a little longer .....SP 500, £ ...hours or months.......Individual shares.....Probably months..... Black box or gut feeling...does nt matter as long as you BUY LOW SELL HIGH.....Even a bull can get bearish....short term....or a bear to get a little friendly to the market.....Whatever it is...
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3 hours ago, dmedin said:
Wait for the earnings... wait for the earnings... wait for the earnings
Tbh...Earning s are important but if these markets were pricing in expected earnings growth, they d 10-20% lower. Even Apple /FANG stox will only yield marginally higher y on y......The rest is all about enthusiasm , capital growth tax cuts etc etc.....Nowhere else to put hot money.....The really smart money is leaving the stock market every time it goes up.....
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4 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:
dax trying to punch it's way up out of the box now;
Yanks will try and close the o/night gap at around 3322, pick up their abandoned baby , also reasonable channel support on the hrly came in at 3309 ....
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1 minute ago, Caseynotes said:
no need to worry, people have been telling us for years on end we were about to enter the big bear market, still waiting.
No its too early for big bear super cycle as there are too many bears out there..For the market to collapse the whole market must be the wrong way round..i.e There are too many trying to pick tops or who are uninvested in the market When the market believes it can t loose, then it ll loose....Great turns have been silver in 1980 and cable in 1986..I think we re-test SP 3000 , In a C leg that ive been spouting on about...There could be an aggressive sell off down to test 2600 , That might be the end of C with a move back up from there, that gets euphoric etc etc....Hits the top of big trend lines again , then market will be ready to sell off big style....a years time maybe ???? 2 nd Trump win ...
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Back to our FTSE triangle. Bear case is that its a B wave to 7670 failed then must test bottom of triangle. Watch for the the most aggressive moves....are all down within Triangle. C leg will be a test of 7450 region and lower. Sorry I said the Bear word....I ll try not to in future....
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The problem with a health issues like a SARS outbreak is that it is un-quantifiable...and the markets have been priced for perfection and as we all know perfection does nt happen..
.The big issues for US500 and Dow is FANG begins its reports with Netflix and Apple over the next week....If earnings are nt showing expansion or they miss ...The market will drop hard ....
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To (miss) quote Bill McLaren (RIP) Stocks are trading...'like a wet haggis'..
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FTSE Nikkie 225 Dax 30, all showing symptoms of double topping on their old highs....
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Buying FTSE .....WELCOME TO THE DARK SIDE >>>
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Just bought FTSE ...Yes me....the biggest bear you ve ever seen,,,,,Got a +Ftse-Sp 500 spread effectively
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- 10 year US rates : This is the conundrum : IF the bulls are right and stocks have further to go up then bonds are a total sell. But as bonds fall and yields rise that will put pressure on stocks to go down unless earnings can rise in line with the rising bond yield.
- If the goldy locks economy of low rates and low growth is right and rates have further to fall, then US stocks are over priced.....Because expectations are built in for endless rises in stock earnings....The US economy is at full employment...with ultra low rates......
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.So what happens when ....employment starts to rise.....dropping rates...has nt worked so far to re-inflate the economy..Fiscal measures....The US gov deficit is at full stretch.....They have nt fixed the roof while the sun shone have they ???? I think the US and Fed has painted itself into a corner which they ca nt get out of.....Remember Goldy locks , has 3 bears !!
Apple
in Shares and ETFs
Posted
You d be proud of me ...I m bullish about wheat does that count ?? Long wheat short SP Short of f####ing Apples .....Great mix ! haha