cheviot
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Posts posted by cheviot
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5 th Wave triangle DOW DAX All showing the same symptoms....Push/pull factors. Hi CHOP rate asthe markets turn. 5 th Wave triangle always very volatile.....But they are a turn signal...BEWARE There s bears in them th'ar woods !
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13 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Yes it is stressful ... I don't know how anyone can find pleasure in only 'analysing' markets, there's only pleasure if there's a feedback response in the form of some kind of reward or success. All TA basically boils down to, 'If it goes here, it might go there; and if it goes there, it might go here.' Totally pointless unless you put some money on the table.
Yes....TA is a signal to act against price......
If you ever feel the need to trade C$ , SWFr or write options....You know you ve lost the plot....Go straight to your nearest nut house and check yourself in....
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11 hours ago, dmedin said:
It's beginning to look like I just don't know what I'm doing and it might be time to call it quits.
I think Caseynotes is right to say time to re-think strategy. (If you want/can keep trading).
Look at what you want from trading (other than pure money),,, If its just giving you stress and grief....stop.
If on the other hand it is giving you mental stimulation and interest and some money great....and you 'enjoy' it.... The challenges etc etc....staying in touch with financial markets etc....
There are many many styles of trading....I think i ve seen them all...day scalping to trading twice a year......
I d suggest (if you want to keep trading), Put aside a small pot of money, choose a market that trades and moves , BUT you have no fixed idea about and no personal opinion of..... use a black box approach. Use signals generated over an appropriate time frame from a good signal system you feel confident to use. Then follow blindly its signals. DONT PUT YOUR OWN VIEWS INTO IT.............
EG MACD and spot gold....???? MACD and $ yen ?? Trade one market and act like a robot. See how you do over a month ???? Then take it from there....
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DAX ......In a 5 th wave triangle.....Expect chop !!!
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Wheat ....Just a quick update.....Wheat choppy with a correctional feel to it.....I expect stout defence of $536 being a Fib ratio pullback and top of Wave 1.
S and D just the same but lack of Chinese buying , an expensive $ and Cv , there s been some profit taking by insitutions as well as elevator/farmer selling.
Beans are likewise ...Choppy sideways action with a downside bias , but $873 held, but I d expect that to be retested.
I would nt be short either commodity.....a little choice buying may work well.
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3 hours ago, Mercury said:
I can see that too, in fact there is a bit of a bid against USD on multiple pairs just now, including the Yen, which will be interesting if sustained...
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Chickens coming home to roost ! Yields dropping . Buy bonds and wear diamonds....Just remember to sell them before the Chinese cash in their log pile of US treasuries !
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2 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Ten years of stock market gains for the bulls ... almost makes you wonder if perhaps buy-and-hold people have the right idea, and that 'trading' is a very unprofitable thing to do?
Depends what you hold ....Ford GE Connoco Philips IBM ........All lost out over 10 years,,,, In reality its the tech sector that are the out and out winners...Everything else is just catching up....
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Apple 5 th wave triangle....
_20200207_14_34.png.e3f1fd42ac41f08d37d300dbdb8a11d1.png)
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6 month 10 year yields close to inversion again ! That ll spook the poor little bullies !
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4 hours ago, Mercury said:
Are we there yet? Not sure. Won't be until after the fact, like everyone else. As we come to the last of the big ticket economic data releases and people wonder what a big miss means or hope for a big beat to drive the crazy gang higher I wonder what a near miss would mean. ISM manufacturing was a decent beat and back above 50, for now, but ISM non manufacturing was mixed, a sign of things to come..?
Apple is at an interesting point now as it looks like a decent shout for a final wave 5 of 5 is there with strong NMD on Weekly and Daily charts. Tesla has blinked, will probably retrace back up a fair bit before any capitulation but the case for the Top is there.
Can't trade it Short until there is a clear signal to. Wouldn't trade it Long because of the risk of a fast and major reversal, hmm what's a trader to do..? Wait for NFP I guess.
I think we are concluding a 5 thwave traingle , It might hit $333 , but given that it is now ex div , it might not make it that far,,,,expect Tesla style collapse soon !
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On 06/02/2020 at 13:44, Mercury said:
Check out the weekly chart... Anyone got a bullish scenario?
You should manually edit your £ chart....Flash crash was quoted as low as £1.15, I believe ( but did nt see it myself....market was a cent wide ) I think it was bid £1.15 offered at £1.16 !! But it will throw out your fib ratios !!
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Bulls ! Do nt ignore what the T Bonds are saying....
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50 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:
lol, but your MACD has just turned up again, 3 more months of uptrend isn't it? 👀
RSI in the 60 s ...MACD probably wo nt retest highs, but I believe that DJ 30 will set a test of 30 000 , it may fail....i do nt know but then chickens will come home to roost, pigs will fly and cows will come home....and the bears will do what we do best ....**** all over the lovely up trend hahahahaha !!!!
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On 06/02/2020 at 13:44, Mercury said:
Check out the weekly chart... Anyone got a bullish scenario?
I see it very similarly,,,,,I am a bear but willing to believe that this a bottoming formation to test 1.29 before final rally (and C of B ) to retest 1.33 ish. See £ going lower into lower 1.20 s or even lower. I think the 1.35 rally was the end of a C wave correction which will end in resumption of the downtrend started in june 2016 at 1.45. Probable retest of $1.00 !!!!
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Dow in 5 th wave triangle
Short term 5 th wave triangle....High volatility.....differing push and pulls in the market....
Dear bulls.....I aint saying the end of the world is nigh..... So do nt worry about deep long positions......go on holiday for a month......Bears need a play in the park from time to time......
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13 minutes ago, cheviot said:
Suffering from C v in the same way....But s and d is underlyingly tight.....I d expect it to hold $545
Just seen a gap at $545 spot wheat....Another reason why the market wants to come back and fill it before moving ahead....
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I agree H and shoulders are generally best viewed with a distance but in essence it is the same price action over any time frame....All it shows is a price level the market is trying to push through...... So that can be 5 minutes or 5 years....But the effect will be relative to the time frame....
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Beans......I do nt see this holding these levels....Cv really spooking this commodity and o/supply issues until the Chinese start buying under Phase one?? I think it has to test $850. Looking at the big picture , it increasingly looks like a bearish picture. The 618% retracement bounce is clear and at the top
end of an ABC.
Wheat
Suffering from C v in the same way....But s and d is underlyingly tight.....I d expect it to hold $545
Money where mouth is...Yes I bought the blue line in Beans at the close on Thursday pm, I sold it for a 4pt bounce as I did nt feel comfortable with it..
Short beans long wheat would be a good Texas spread.....
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The start of the bear run. Apple now getting crunched. High volume selling. You bulls need to go on holiday for a month....Test of SP 3000 highly likely...
Key was ...Which worked like a charm....Key day reversal on SP 500 last Friday 24 January. fractional new high and close below the previous day's low.
I do nt believe this is the end of the world....but it will be a correction that tbh the market needs.
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1 minute ago, dmedin said:
I just wanted to add my tuppence on this point, such patterns have far more significance if they form over a period of weeks or months. On hourly charts they are more like mirages.
Mmm I agree but i m bearish £ medium term....(cable) not sure about £€ that might retest 82p € .
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1 hour ago, Bopperz said:
Don't like the 15 point minimum bet though! With an ATR of 10, its a bit spicy for my current portfolio.
Yeah....Its a bummer of £15 just to get in to it.....
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Head n shoulders anyone ?
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Beans :
Fundamentals : Not so clearly bullish. Lack of Chinese demand due to the cull of pigs...and lack of follow through from the Phase 1 trade agreement....Has seen the market drop along with Indx s ; Cv seen as a reason for lack of demand and there are plentiful supplies of Beans in S America..
So likely test of $880 . i think it will hold as buyers come out of the wood work. I would nt put Granny into it though.
_20200207_14_34.png.e3f1fd42ac41f08d37d300dbdb8a11d1.png)
end of an ABC.
Indices
in Indices and Macro Events
Posted
I do nt see this as a 'Major top' . My view is that we retest SP 3000, with a possible retest of the August lows. Think it through.....The market assumed that Phase 1 would bring renewed prosperity and trade to the world. Past earnings have been (in US) quite robust BUT does it support the market at this level, if earnings are say cut by 5% average.....? The SP is at full stretch valuation wise, and other than LT rates at 1.5% , there may be a correction worth talking about.
IF NvCv 2019 is going to be 'disruptive' particularly to China 's secondary banks...This will cause lasting problems.....not just a few iphones not bought.
The Fed has painted itself into a corner. If it cuts rates, that will actually send the wrong signal to the market that the Fed is worried....In actuality the Fed should have raised rates when it had its chance. given the so called level of US economic activity currently estimated at 1.4% GDP growth ? Think about that figure 1.4% GDP growth on a stock market that on a p/e basis is in its highest quartile.
The two ends do nt meet.
What has been happening is that 'not QE' $$ pumped into the short end has been going straight into SP etc. If you look at the rest of the world's share indexes they cant follow the US lead, because they have nt the $$$ pushed into the short end through a very accommodating CBank.
If SP drops even another 50 points there will be calls for a cut in US rates,,,,you can bank on it.....
Buy low .....sell high.