AndrewS
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Posts posted by AndrewS
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6 minutes ago, dmedin said:
I don't understand.
For example there may be a retracement on both the short term and the longer term and you are anticipating a bounce on both time frames. The trade may go much further that usual because on a higher time frame you may have gotten on board near the start of a longer term move.
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On 03/06/2020 at 22:08, AndrewS said:
I am still actively managing a short on the Nikkei. I closed out half when it traded below levels I sold at. My plan at the moment is to double up with a tight stop if it approaches the high and hedge if it if goes through the high. Alternatively I will just scalp on the long side for a different index.
Since someone was kind enough to click the like button for this post I will get back to it again. The problem is that plan is very difficult for me to implement, and I suspect many others would get mixed results trying this. A far better way to try to integrate short term and long term trading is to have a set-up in the same direction on both time frames. That way what may have been be a trade with a risk/return of 1:1 can become a trade with a risk/return of 1:10.
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S&P and Dax both rally to 31/01/2020 lows.
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14 hours ago, AndrewS said:
I am still actively managing a short on the Nikkei. I closed out half when it traded below levels I sold at. My plan at the moment is to double up with a tight stop if it approaches the high and hedge if it if goes through the high. Alternatively I will just scalp on the long side for a different index.
This was not a good idea for me, but it was much more forgiving than the shorting the others.
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4 hours ago, dmedin said:
Nikkei has a window to close, up to the 88.6% 😻
I am still actively managing a short on the Nikkei. I closed out half when it traded below levels I sold at. My plan at the moment is to double up with a tight stop if it approaches the high and hedge if it if goes through the high. Alternatively I will just scalp on the long side for a different index.
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11 minutes ago, dmedin said:
The Nikkei is even further advanced, why short? Overbought?
I think it is overextended in the last 10 days as it approaches the 31/01/2020 low. Of course I may be forced to hedge some of the position.
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59 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:
No reason why not if the economy is turned back on. Next major resistance level for S&P is 3138 (monthly R1 and previous high March).
The Nikkei is well through that level and I am short with a price alarm at 22,626. Lets see.
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3 hours ago, dmedin said:
The orange line doesn't seem to be quite so useful as the green one.
The 20 period MA (red line) was more useful on Wednesday and Thursday.
The higher the velocity of a swing the more useful the shorter MAs tend to be for a retracement trade.
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14 hours ago, dmedin said:
The problem with the MA crossovers is that you don't really just want to get out of the trade if you reach a limit, you want to let it run until price closes beneath the 20 SMA.
Five closes on a limit in a range in a row.
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2 hours ago, dmedin said:
Isn't that an overload of information? I feel overloaded.
How profitable any approach is varies considerably under different market conditions (reversal, trend, range ext) so it pays to assess what the conditions are and whether they are changing.
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7 hours ago, dmedin said:
The problem with the MA crossovers is that you don't really just want to get out of the trade if you reach a limit, you want to let it run until price closes beneath the 20 SMA.
I am looking at 5 books written by traders. One thing they have in common is that they mention specific setups or strategies and different market conditions ( range, retracement, breakout, trend, reversal). I tend not to trade crossovers or breakouts (although I do pay attention to them) but rather retracements and so I always have provisional stops and limits in mind.
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17 minutes ago, dmedin said:
MAs are no use during whipsaws. So then another piece of the puzzle has to be, 'Do I use the principle of higher highs/lows or do I try and do an Elliot Wave count'.
Alternatively, you can just buy when price > 200 SMA and sell when price < 200 SMA. That seems to be better than most other indicators LOL
Well the lows have been defined by the 20 hour MA and the 5 hour MA suggests consolidation.
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4 hours ago, Caseynotes said:
going back to the Trading Rush video backtests, his MACD with a ema filter over 100 trades came in at 62% win rate for a set 1:1.5 risk/reward so a winning strategy, so what happened when you eyeball backtested it over 20 trades on your preferred market and your preferred chart time frame?
Thank you for finding this. I will be paying more attention to the crossover of the 20 and 60 period moving average on the 5 min chart. Not quite the 12/26 ratio of the MACD, but still. His test of the crossover of the 9 and 21 period EMA also came out as profitable as well.
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1 hour ago, dmedin said:
Not really ...
Yes really.
1 hour ago, dmedin said:I want to see year-in, year-out results-based evidence. Not much to ask for. (All professional funds are benchmarked and the data is available for all to see.)
Al Brooks has a trading room and refuses to do this and I don’t blame him.
1 hour ago, dmedin said:The reason it's all smoke-and-daggers around here is because your 'plans' are worth less than toilet paper unless you can find a way to actually make money, which is the only thing that matters. I haven't found one single TA system that reliably makes profits from trading, but I have found plenty that are really ace in hindsight.
If you are getting >90% win rate then that puts you in the top-performing elite, and you should be able to take your system to all the big trading houses and get them to entrust their capital to you. Heck, with a >90% win rate you should be able to get stinking rich managing a select portfolio of clients: set up your own hedge fund. Even George Soros says he's only right 40% of the time!
Perhaps what seems more difficult is actually easier. Gain a small edge with a discretionary framework and build on that by acquiring a skill rather than a mechanical system.
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1 hour ago, dmedin said:
If you can make a win rate of 92% consistently year-in and year-out then Goldman Sacks will be beating down your door to manage their wealth for them. Why are you able to achieve a win rate enormously higher than almost every professional fund manager?
The statistics are somewhat skewed by staggered entries and exits.
You dismiss the “how” with a moment’s consideration and then proceed to ask “why”.
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12 hours ago, dmedin said:
And how is that working out for you?
Making any money?
This is not the first time you have asked me this.
The last week for me looks like this.
Markets
#Trades
#Profit trades
Win rate
P/L ratio
Return rate
Wall Street Cash (A$1)
76
70
92%
0.44:1
1.33
12 hours ago, dmedin said:money.
Comparison with chess - not sure about that. Chess is a noble competition and 100% skill based.
Trading is more like being down at the casinos, where everybody is trying to cheat everybody else out of their money.
I am achieving non-random results. I suppose you could say I am “cheating” by having a trading method.
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7 hours ago, dmedin said:
Do any of you gents know what the following candlestick pattern is called?
I call it the 'Let's screw over all these f-king idiots who think you can't short the U.S. or Fade the Fed. Haha! With their Donchian channels and Bollinger bands showing a humongous breakout to the upside, and their dumb-@ss Fibs, they will be easy pray!' play by the Big Boys, who ALWAYS F'KING WIN - ALWAYS - and the little fish who always LOSE - ALWAYS!
I don’t give much weight to the analysis of people like Steve Nison because of the focus on reversals.
I don’t use Donchian channels, Bollinger bans, Fibs or trade breakouts.
4 hours ago, dmedin said:As for posting charts - ain't helpful. Anyone can do that. Just like anyone can be an 'analyst'.
Not anyone can see at a glance what someone who trades the same setups over and over across highly correlated markets sees.
https://vault.si.com/vault/2011/08/08/its-all-about-anticipation
“Before occlusion studies shed light on perceptual expertise in sports (the first significant tests were performed by Canadian researcher Janet Starkes on volleyball players in 1975), studies of chess masters were beginning to illuminate the underlying processes. In famous experiments starting in the 1940s, Dutch psychologist and chess master Adriaan de Groot gave grandmasters and club chess players five seconds to look at chessboards with the pieces arranged in game scenarios. Then the arrangement was taken away, and De Groot had the players reconstruct the board they had just seen. Grandmasters could remember the position of nearly every piece, while decent club players could reconstruct only about half the board. De Groot and subsequent researchers determined that the masters were "chunking" information—rather than remember the position of every piece separately, the grandmasters grasped small chunks of meaningful information, which allowed them to place the pieces. We all use this strategy to an extent in daily life. For example, while it would be difficult to remember 15 random words, it's much less difficult to remember a coherent 15-word sentence because one need only recall bits of meaning and grammar, which coordinate the order of words in your head.
Moreover, to test whether the grandmasters' skill is the result of game experience or prodigious memory, psychologists have presented master and club players with chess boards containing pieces randomly arranged in a way that did not make sense in the context of a game. In that circumstance the experts' memories are no better than the club players'.”
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A number of indices are just below some yearly pivots.
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IG's calendar is wrong. It is -4.8
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1 hour ago, dmedin said:
Well, that isn't working out ...
How much is Linda's holy grail?
It seems to me that this guy has traded his version of it many times.
http://theimpatienttrader.blogspot.com/2008/01/holy-grail-setup.html
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5 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Haven't found one of those yet. Do they exist?
I mentioned one here.
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On 25/04/2020 at 19:42, dmedin said:
Prices go up and down more or less randomly, yes. You'd think people wouldn't be stupid enough to trade on very short time frames
The funny thing is that you continually post that trading on short time frames is hopeless and yet there are signs that when you attempt to do it you are blinded by hope and fail to see what is in front of your eyes. Trade what you see (with a framework of high probability setups and good risk/return) not what you hope.
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7 hours ago, dmedin said:
Is that what you call those hundreds of lines on your chart?
With so many of them there you're bound to be right now and then
Support-Resistance grid is a term used by someone whose name I can’t recall.
The only lines on the chart are candles, a price grid, a weekly pivot and a twenty period moving average.
Indices
in Indices and Macro Events
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