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Everything posted by AndrewS

  1. I am still actively managing a short on the Nikkei. I closed out half when it traded below levels I sold at. My plan at the moment is to double up with a tight stop if it approaches the high and hedge if it if goes through the high. Alternatively I will just scalp on the long side for a different index.
  2. I think it is overextended in the last 10 days as it approaches the 31/01/2020 low. Of course I may be forced to hedge some of the position.
  3. The Nikkei is well through that level and I am short with a price alarm at 22,626. Lets see.
  4. The 20 period MA (red line) was more useful on Wednesday and Thursday. The higher the velocity of a swing the more useful the shorter MAs tend to be for a retracement trade.
  5. Five closes on a limit in a range in a row.
  6. How profitable any approach is varies considerably under different market conditions (reversal, trend, range ext) so it pays to assess what the conditions are and whether they are changing.
  7. I am looking at 5 books written by traders. One thing they have in common is that they mention specific setups or strategies and different market conditions ( range, retracement, breakout, trend, reversal). I tend not to trade crossovers or breakouts (although I do pay attention to them) but rather retracements and so I always have provisional stops and limits in mind.
  8. Well the lows have been defined by the 20 hour MA and the 5 hour MA suggests consolidation.
  9. Thank you for finding this. I will be paying more attention to the crossover of the 20 and 60 period moving average on the 5 min chart. Not quite the 12/26 ratio of the MACD, but still. His test of the crossover of the 9 and 21 period EMA also came out as profitable as well.
  10. Yes really. Al Brooks has a trading room and refuses to do this and I don’t blame him. Perhaps what seems more difficult is actually easier. Gain a small edge with a discretionary framework and build on that by acquiring a skill rather than a mechanical system.
  11. The statistics are somewhat skewed by staggered entries and exits. You dismiss the “how” with a moment’s consideration and then proceed to ask “why”.
  12. This is not the first time you have asked me this. The last week for me looks like this. Markets #Trades #Profit trades Win rate P/L ratio Return rate Wall Street Cash (A$1) 76 70 92% 0.44:1 1.33 I am achieving non-random results. I suppose you could say I am “cheating” by having a trading method.
  13. I don’t give much weight to the analysis of people like Steve Nison because of the focus on reversals. I don’t use Donchian channels, Bollinger bans, Fibs or trade breakouts. Not anyone can see at a glance what someone who trades the same setups over and over across highly correlated markets sees. https://vault.si.com/vault/2011/08/08/its-all-about-anticipation “Before occlusion studies shed light on perceptual expertise in sports (the first significant tests were performed by Canadian researcher Janet Starkes on volleyball players in 1975), studies of chess masters were beginning to illuminate the underlying processes. In famous experiments starting in the 1940s, Dutch psychologist and chess master Adriaan de Groot gave grandmasters and club chess players five seconds to look at chessboards with the pieces arranged in game scenarios. Then the arrangement was taken away, and De Groot had the players reconstruct the board they had just seen. Grandmasters could remember the position of nearly every piece, while decent club players could reconstruct only about half the board. De Groot and subsequent researchers determined that the masters were "chunking" information—rather than remember the position of every piece separately, the grandmasters grasped small chunks of meaningful information, which allowed them to place the pieces. We all use this strategy to an extent in daily life. For example, while it would be difficult to remember 15 random words, it's much less difficult to remember a coherent 15-word sentence because one need only recall bits of meaning and grammar, which coordinate the order of words in your head. Moreover, to test whether the grandmasters' skill is the result of game experience or prodigious memory, psychologists have presented master and club players with chess boards containing pieces randomly arranged in a way that did not make sense in the context of a game. In that circumstance the experts' memories are no better than the club players'.”
  14. A number of indices are just below some yearly pivots.
  15. IG's calendar is wrong. It is -4.8
  16. It seems to me that this guy has traded his version of it many times. http://theimpatienttrader.blogspot.com/2008/01/holy-grail-setup.html
  17. The funny thing is that you continually post that trading on short time frames is hopeless and yet there are signs that when you attempt to do it you are blinded by hope and fail to see what is in front of your eyes. Trade what you see (with a framework of high probability setups and good risk/return) not what you hope.
  18. Support-Resistance grid is a term used by someone whose name I can’t recall. The only lines on the chart are candles, a price grid, a weekly pivot and a twenty period moving average.
  19. It is not a chart pattern for me as much as I simply look at where price is relative to the current candle and give some attention to the range of previous candles.
  20. I am no trading Guru, but I will try to get back to your comments. You can look at my comments which I think can give a good idea of how I trade.
  21. You just identify something which appears non-random and trial it on your support-resistance grid. The last 5 hourly candles all had lower highs, so you may provisionally adopt the highs and lows of hourly candles as an area of interest.
  22. Well I may be coming down from 40 trades a day now because I doubt that it is optimal, but I can give a clear example when I was on the wrong side of a trending market and it was a definite improvement. I had been scalping on the Dax for 4 hours one day and I decided to go for a big swing trade on the Nikkei and sold it. I was wrong and hedged it by opening a long position. For the next 12 hours I was continually opening and closing long hedges ( this was when the spread on the Nikkei was 15 points!). The Nikkei dipped a bit in its early trading session to a point slightly higher than when I went short and I closed the lot and was finally flat. The trade analytics look like this. True P/L #Trades #Profit trades Win rate Avg profit Avg loss P/L ratio Return rate Japan 225 Cash (A$1) AUD309.70 42 33 79% AUD32.11 AUD-83.34 0.39:1 1.09 I estimate that I paid about $700 in spreads. I am not planning to do this again.
  23. A few things: 1. I am addressing your comment that “People who actively trade lose money” which is not universally the case at all, although many beginners perhaps should avoid scalping. 2. The video is from 2007 which is before IG had an association with DailyFX.com. 3. Steven Ickow was primarily working off the bids and offers displayed on the Level 2 screen for the Nasdaq which provided much better transparency than the specialist book on the NYSE. He also looks at daily and 5 min charts for the Nasdaq, S&P and E-mini Russell futures. 4. In the book he says “I don’t like to buy highs and sell lows. I like to buy pullbacks.” That gives some context to his comment in the interview about not chasing stocks. 5. He does not average down on losers, but does scale out of winners. 6. Now I have been averaging 40 trades a day but if my trade size is 10% of someone who has 4 trades a day the spreads/commissions are the same. 7. The spread on the Dow at the moment is about one twentieth of the ATR of a five minute candle.