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Bopperz

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  1. I have a contact who can do some dev work. Depends what your after and what language?!
  2. Hi, Is there a way to determine the exact underlying that IG are using for their prices. I know that they often make an adjustment for the futures roll, which I am okey with. I am after the underlying. With Example: London Sugar No 5. Under the product details, it would be very helpful to list the exchange, the product code etc. There isn't much info on there currently. In this case I believe it is the ICE traded futures contract with code 'W'. Which ICE call 'White Sugar Futures', no mention of London or No.5 that I can see.
  3. All forums have employees, or "friendly" people who get kickbacks. Casey may or may not be one, but i'm sure there are others. It does not mean good advice is suddenly bad advice. Just take it all in and keep a sceptical mind, like with all things.
  4. Happy for lock down to be eased so they can see elderly relatives (who are most at risk of dying). Not so keen for lockdown to be eased so they can go back to work..............
  5. Latest from the yougov poll I get asked. Travel in and out of your local area Latest results... In 6 weeks - 35% Longer - 29% In 3 weeks - 20% Now - 14% Other - 2% Free movement within your local area Results so far... In 6 weeks - 34% In 3 weeks - 25% Longer - 20% Now - 19% Other - 2% Complete lifting of all restrictions Results so far... Longer - 82% In 6 weeks - 7% Now - 4% Other - 4% In 3 weeks - 3%
  6. I think the potential for massive losses outweighs the chance of higher profits. The stats show that the vast majority of people lose at this game. Add in large price swings and things get nasty. Give me a nice gentle trending market any day!
  7. Booooiiinnnnngggggggg
  8. Just participated in a YouGov poll (and it gives your the results so far). 71% of people dont want to rush the ending of the lockdown and want to be cautious. Choices were basically: A) Be cautious, b) Start ending it now slowly, c) end it now.
  9. I think this is one area, where we will have to be patient and see how the numbers play out. The number of deaths is above average for several weeks. But the real picture needs more time to develop, are those deaths displaced from later in the year? From the graph, it looks like we have circa 50k extra deaths over the last few weeks, so far this represents an 8% increase in the 600k annual death rate in the UK. And from all this. Who actually has a trade to take advantage of their view, in either direction? (Please don't suggest buying an index and waiting 2 years!)
  10. Whats everyone's view on the UK government opening up test slots today? Looks like everyone and their dog applied and filled up all the slots. Its very difficult to check if you are a key worker, and you can say someone in your house has symptoms. So basically anyone can get a test?!?! Looking forward to getting the results back as ~75% of tests come back negative already, and those people are being tested because of actual symptoms seen by a doctor. I expect this new batch will have a very low infection rate!
  11. Hi Sam, I would be interested to know how this works out. What kind of market conditions have you tested this trade with? If the market rallies do you close the position and sell more puts with a higher strike? As for the hedge, lets look at a nasty scenario: You sell an Out-The-money (OTM) put option. The day after, the market crashes and is just above your strike. You now have a decision to make: 1) The put option you sold will now be worth considerably more. You could buy back the put, realising the loss, but it does draw a line under the whole event and you live to fight another day. 2) You wait, assuming the market does not move, the option will expire worthless. But you will have a drawdown on your capital which will be (slowly) returned by the theta decay on the option. If the market moves, could go either way. 3) Delta hedge, you accept that the trade has gone badly. There will be losses, its just how big. If you nullify the delta of the position by selling the correct amount of the underlying it will reduce your PnL to moves in the underlying. Upside, if the market continues to drop the loss on the put will be partly offset by gains on the position. Downside, if the market rallies, you will lose money on the position. Again, if the market is stable, the theta will slowly come back into your account. Which ever method you use, just make sure you decide in advance!
  12. This is classic tail risk. It works really well, till it doesn't. Then you will wipe out your account. Be clear what your trading here, (not the underlying), your trading the assumptions in the options pricing model. If (and when) the trade goes against you, make sure you have an exit plan! You could either cash out at a fixed loss or try and delta hedge or something else.
  13. I appreciate this thread. But something that does worry me is that a recent poll showed ~90% of people want to keep the lockdown. Therefore I am well out of touch with the average man, as I would have followed something closer to the Sweden model and i'd have those schools open next week. But it dosent matter what I think, it matters what the majority think. And this thread is a "minority view". The debate will never be evidence or science based. Look at how many people don't want kids to go to school, despite the under 18 death rate being so low you couldn't make a 5-a-side football match.
  14. Sorry, just to add, you will have to calculate the delta yourself!
  15. Hi, You can get implied vols for a large variety of strikes with a few tenor points. You can get the ATM vol directly, you will need to calculate the RR yourself. I will will defer the other Q's to someone else.
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