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Bopperz

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  1. Can automation help? If the trading plan is solid, and can be expressed in code. It can remove some of the mental problems.
  2. Its a bit of data that I never look at, so I cant cheat. The problem is, if you study a price chart long enough you will find something that works. To get around this problem, I test the theory on this unseen data to see if it still performs. Imagine you were using a SMA cross over strategy and trying out different averaging periods. How would you know that 12 day vs 50 day was the best setup? If you used all your data, you would never know if you had just overfitted to your dataset. Your model may just work really well on past data and not generalise to new data.
  3. Hey guys, When back testing a new "idea", what are you doing about the recent market moves since March? I backtest over multiple years of data, but use a validation/holdout dataset of the final 10% of data points to confirm the idea actually works. However, the recent market moves are starting to make up a larger and larger amount of this validation set. This means I can create a great model, that generates good PnL over several years, but I should reject it, as it performs poorly due to Covid. Any questions, let me know! J
  4. Your theory on paying/receiving premium is right. However, when you spreadbet this is not how it works. The long call option is working as expected, you paid a premium equivalent to the option price. However when you sell an option, the margin is not related to the price paid. For example, the margin to short a FTSE100 call @ 5000 is £350. The price of the call is £1115. Basically, don't confuse margin and PnL. Margin is what is required to keep the position open, to protect IG from your credit risk (i.e. you walk away without paying). The PnL on the above trade if it expires out-the-money would be +£1115. As for price changes, you want to look at the delta of the option. Look this up, make sure you understand it. There are online calculators to do the maths for you. Lastly, most options traders do not trade price, they trade volatility. To be clear, they are not explicitly taking a view on price, they are taking a view on the shape of the volatility surface.
  5. If you email them they will increase your allowance temporarily. I was using a demo account too, they might be more friendly if they can see trading/income potential. I used to hit the limit regularly, but now I keep a database of prices, and I only need to update these daily. So I am using much less data. edit: What assets are you looking at? Can you get data from another source? Regarding the IG API in general, its not the best. I really like the web interface, and I used PRT for a while and liked it. But I do have a Oanda account purely because their API is much nicer!
  6. I have a contact who can do some dev work. Depends what your after and what language?!
  7. Hi, Is there a way to determine the exact underlying that IG are using for their prices. I know that they often make an adjustment for the futures roll, which I am okey with. I am after the underlying. With Example: London Sugar No 5. Under the product details, it would be very helpful to list the exchange, the product code etc. There isn't much info on there currently. In this case I believe it is the ICE traded futures contract with code 'W'. Which ICE call 'White Sugar Futures', no mention of London or No.5 that I can see.
  8. All forums have employees, or "friendly" people who get kickbacks. Casey may or may not be one, but i'm sure there are others. It does not mean good advice is suddenly bad advice. Just take it all in and keep a sceptical mind, like with all things.
  9. Happy for lock down to be eased so they can see elderly relatives (who are most at risk of dying). Not so keen for lockdown to be eased so they can go back to work..............
  10. Latest from the yougov poll I get asked. Travel in and out of your local area Latest results... In 6 weeks - 35% Longer - 29% In 3 weeks - 20% Now - 14% Other - 2% Free movement within your local area Results so far... In 6 weeks - 34% In 3 weeks - 25% Longer - 20% Now - 19% Other - 2% Complete lifting of all restrictions Results so far... Longer - 82% In 6 weeks - 7% Now - 4% Other - 4% In 3 weeks - 3%
  11. I think the potential for massive losses outweighs the chance of higher profits. The stats show that the vast majority of people lose at this game. Add in large price swings and things get nasty. Give me a nice gentle trending market any day!
  12. Booooiiinnnnngggggggg
  13. Just participated in a YouGov poll (and it gives your the results so far). 71% of people dont want to rush the ending of the lockdown and want to be cautious. Choices were basically: A) Be cautious, b) Start ending it now slowly, c) end it now.
  14. I think this is one area, where we will have to be patient and see how the numbers play out. The number of deaths is above average for several weeks. But the real picture needs more time to develop, are those deaths displaced from later in the year? From the graph, it looks like we have circa 50k extra deaths over the last few weeks, so far this represents an 8% increase in the 600k annual death rate in the UK. And from all this. Who actually has a trade to take advantage of their view, in either direction? (Please don't suggest buying an index and waiting 2 years!)
  15. Whats everyone's view on the UK government opening up test slots today? Looks like everyone and their dog applied and filled up all the slots. Its very difficult to check if you are a key worker, and you can say someone in your house has symptoms. So basically anyone can get a test?!?! Looking forward to getting the results back as ~75% of tests come back negative already, and those people are being tested because of actual symptoms seen by a doctor. I expect this new batch will have a very low infection rate!
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