Bopperz
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Posts posted by Bopperz
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2 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:
Place your bets; number of deaths by cause in the US so far this year;
RTAs = road traffic accidents.
CHF = chronic heart failure
Was about to ask about CHF, those pesky Swiss!
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6 minutes ago, dmedin said:
All of us should consider ourselves lucky if we can survive that long. 😮
It's okey, I intend on surviving.
Dying does not feature in my trading plan, and I only follow the plan!
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I am very much looking forward to crunching the data on this in a year or two when we have a clearer picture.
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FTSE bouncing off the S1, after a steady drop overnight.
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Hi Chuong,
As the Aus 200 increases, the value of your put decreases. You should seriously think about staying away from options until you have researched how they work.
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Now we are in the middle ground on the FTSE, S+P and DOW. Looks like it could go lower to the daily pivot.
Weekly pp might be a good support though!
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FTSE, 2nd biggest up-day in its history. Bit of optimism about the US package trying to make its way through congress? Or standard dead-cat-bounce?
Thoughts?
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Not looking great for the UK data release at 9:30.
UK Services PMI 45? Sounds far to optimistic to me.
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How far below expectations will we be? France just printed 30 vs 38 (pred) for composite PMI!
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We will see what the European PMI data says about that.....
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@Caseynotes What does the redline represent? The current critical bed capacity in the UK? ~10 bed/100k people?
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FTSE 100 hits eight-year closing low
Newsflash: Britain’s blue-chip stock index has hit its lowest closing level since 2011.
The FTSE 100 has ended the day down 196 points, or 3.79%, at 4993.89 points.
That’s its lowest close since October 2011 (although it was lower during ‘intraday’ trading last week).
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2 hours ago, Caseynotes said:
The question is 'how much more bad news can there be?' with regards to the virus, the western world has locked down for the next 2 weeks with the unemployment and drop in GDP that will cause should already be priced in. Previously on a Fed stimulus announcements was followed by news of escalation on the virus front which promptly swallowed up the stimulus and the selling continued but the virus can't do any more than it's already done can it?, it's enveloped the world and shut every thing down. This may well be the bottom.
There will be rolling extensions past the two weeks, but nobody has any idea how long this thing will go on for.
China imposed lockdown ~20th Jan and by 20th March appeared to have contained the virus. But the European lockdowns arnt working and who knows what will happen as life returns to normal in China. A second wave seems likely.
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I'm really not happy with the scale of destruction. Worldwide infections are at 300k, which means 99.996% of people do not have it.
However... these view are generally unacceptable (and potentially career threatening) so best to keep quiet.....
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I do have a bit of a chip on my shoulder at the moment, but......
The daily death rate of the world is 100,000 people. The current deaths attributed to this virus are 10,000 (in two months). This is ridiculous.
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Apparently the UK treasury will announce some kind of wage support for PAYE staff. Any predictions?
I think the finer details may take a few more days to work out. But if the govt postponed taking tax/NI through PAYE, it would leave a significant portion of cash in the business. Tax can make up 25-50% of a persons pay, so this would reduce the cost of keeping the employee in a job. The employee would still receive the same takehome pay.
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Bringing it back on topic...
The last round of QE didn't cause a large bout of inflation? Not in the "real" economy anyway. The stock market went crazy yes, and houses. British people LOVE houses.
As for paying for it, add it onto the national debt, and keep rolling it till the principle is inflated away.
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15 hours ago, cheviot said:
I see the film of empty streets in big cities.....My local town....I have nt seen it busier....Like Xmas eve....the place was heaving.....Aldi was stowed out...
I think those photos of empty London are taken "strategically". Photographer has to make a living, and a photo with people in it wont pay the bills.
Personally, if I needed to get that photo, I would be down there at the crack of dawn, then give it a bit of exposure in lightroom to make it look like a normal time of day. Job done.
I once spoke to a guy who claimed to have used a model aeroplane in a photo once, and passed it off to a local newspaper as the real thing..... 😝
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I hope you didn't enter a long position after you first post! :s
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Being 6'4", I would be very happy with a bit more leg room!
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11 minutes ago, dmedin said:
No but let us know how you get on, sounds very interesting
Might give it a go in an demo account at some point.
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Nyk Cotton has broken through, now I have to be patient and wait.
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FTSE is circling the daily pivot point.
Has anyone ever tried gamma scalping a support/resistance zone? i.e. buy an option, with a strike on a S/R and try and delta hedge to pay off the premium?
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Also, to clarify my thinking....
NYK Cotton looks like its about to breakout to the downside. So there are two scenarios:
1) Fakeout, the most common. Prices will hit a new low, hit a bunch of sell orders, before a quick reversal back into range.
2) Sustained down move.
If its option 2, I will wait for a pull back to the ~5670 (ish) and enter a short.
Covid and the Economy
in General Trading Strategy Discussion
Posted
If a 70 year old can actually have the virus, recover and be back to work in 7 days.
Maybe the police could go visit some of our bin men/posties/tube drivers who seem to have a 30% sickness rate.....