Thanks 786, I reckon your scenario is pretty sound. I agree that ultimately prices will continue down. What I'm less confident about is whether there'll be a second peak or not before that. The oil price-action now is not far off some very strong support on the daily / weekly chart (although, admittedly, last time I looked RSI indicating not oversold yet), so if it shoots back up I reckon it will be soon.
Thanks for highlighting the victory day thing, as you say - big potential for a price shock if Putin goes Full **** and declares war on the West. Personally I reckon China covid policy will loosen (although it may not be soon), if only because their zero covid policy will quite quickly contain the virus, as it did during the first wave. It will only take one headline about a fall in covid rates to change sentiment and make the price drop down for a few days...