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Bellwether metals down on $200bn US Sino tariffs - EMEA brief 18 Sep


JamesIG

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  • Trump to impose an additional 10% tariff duty on China rising to 25% next year if no deal is reached.
  • China's yuan down on the back of trade war talks, whilst a stimulus package helps support the equity market.
  • Gold's typical 'safe haven' status isn't re enforced this time around, with flow seen into the USD over the precious metal.
  • Nickel, aluminium and bellwether metal copper hit on the LME by the $200bn tariff. Oil drops on the same news.
  • Mining shares also hit as a result and its likely we’ll see some FTSE and European shares gap down on the open..
  • In the EM space political uncertainty is driving down coffee prices, whilst the Indian rupee drops to near record lows despite PMs best efforts.
  • Elon Musk's SpaceX has named a Japanese billionaire as its first tourist they’ll fly around the moon. 
  • Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund has invested $1bn in a Tesla rival, Lucid motors.


Asian overnight: Asian markets performed remarkably well overnight, with the Hang Seng and ASX 200 providing the two sour notes on an otherwise resilient session. Chinese markets rose despite Trump implementing 10% tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese goods which will will start on September 24The decision comes in spite of China's warning that they would not engage in scheduled trade talks if the US implemented these tariffs. This would rise to 25% next year if no deal is reached, and the US has further warned that if China retaliates, it would pursue tariffs on another $267bn worth of imports from China. 

To an extent this largely writes off any hopes of a resolution in the near-term and instead heightens the risk of Chinese retaliation. However it seems today’s news was largely baked into the price, thus muting the effect. While US markets were weaker overnight, US Index futures are trading marginally firmer this morning and Chinese equity markets significantly firmer today. Elsewhere, the RBA minutes pointed towards a bank which has no inclination to raise rates anytime soon.

UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, there are precious few notable economic releases of note, thus shifting the focus back onto the Chinese trade concerns alongside Brexit.

South Africa:  Commodity prices are under some pressure this morning while the rand has managed to claw back some further strength against the greenback. BHP Billiton is trading 0.4% lower in Australia suggestive of a weaker start for local diversified resource counters. Tencent Holdings is up 0.2% in Asia, suggestive of a marginally positive start for major holding company naspers. 

Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

2018-09-18 07_44_36-Forex Economic Calendar.png

Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar

Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades

  • Spire Healthcare said that pre-tax profit fell 7.9% for the first half, to £8.2 million, while revenue was down 1.1% to £475.6 million. Full-year guidance was also cut, to £120-£125 million.  
  • Ocado reported an 11.5% rise in retail revenue for Q3 to £349 million, while average orders per week rose 11.4% to 283,000. 

Centrica upgraded to buy at Goldman
Fresnillo upgraded to top pick at RBC
Merlin upgraded to buy at SocGen
Polymetal upgraded to outperform at RBC

Investec maintain buy on Barloworld with a target price of 14400c
Investec upgrades Distell to buy with a target price of 15000c

CYBG downgraded to hold at Berenberg
NCC downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
Vifor Pharma cut to neutral at JPMorgan
Moody's has placed MTN on review for downgrade 

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    • Natural Gas Commodity Elliottwave Technical Analysis
      Natural Gas



      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



      Natural Gas is currently breaching the previous April low, marking a decisive move as the impulse initiated on 5th March continues its downward trajectory, further extending the overarching impulse wave sequence that commenced back in August 2022. This decline is anticipated to persist as long as the price remains below the critical resistance level of 2.012.



       



      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



      Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.



       







       







       




      Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
       
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