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September 2016 Non-farm Payrolls


Guest TimP

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Hi all

 

Welcome to September's Non-farm Payrolls thread, where we invite you to guess the release figures for NFP. 

 

If you guess closest, you can land yourself the coveted NFP Champion badge for the month! August saw 151,000 jobs added, compared with a revised 275,000 in July.

  

So post your guesses below and good luck!

 

Tim

 

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I am going to take an average, excluding the blip from May of 24k, therefore my estimate is between 131000 as a average and a mean estimate of 181,000. Therefore between 131000 & 181000. If I had to choose I would say possibly stick with 131000 or less. Of which we could see a slight retracement of Gold to the upside and see the cable, euro and aus strengthen.



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Thanks for the guesses so far!

 

Some analysis from  on the upcoming figures below. You can read the full article here.

 

"Friday’s jobs report will be the subject of much speculation within the trading community, with the figures pored over for any sign that the US is more or less able to withstand a rate rise in 2016. At a time when political uncertainty is rife, there are mixed messages going into this release, with the potential for firms to ease off hiring with such a cloud looming over the economic future of the US. By and large, as US unemployment falls, so the expectations gradually fall for the payrolls number as the improvements become more marginal. With that in mind, the ability to post circa 180,000 jobs for the forthcoming months would by and large be perceived as sufficient for a December rate rise. However, the big question is whether we will indeed see such a jobs market as we move into the forthcoming months."

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perhaps this may not be the correct thread for this question however, this NFP number is going to be interesting.

 

The general thoughts around it is that, A higher number means markets will rally and a lower number means not. In this particular situation does a higher number increase the case for an interest rate hike? If so can we see markets crashing further? And, if we see a lower number what does this mean?

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Well that is the $64m question alright .  I'm afraid I don't have the answer.

 

The theory goes that a Fed rate rise is bad for the markets in general these days because assets have been hyper-inflated off the back of ultra low interest rates and QE, globally, in a bid to stimulate the economy after the credit crunch.  The conspiracy theorists have it that the central bank actions were solely to try and inflate away the trillions of debt (though how this is possible by adding trillions more I don't know...) and/or prop up the whole moribund system for political and selfish reasons (AKA crony capitalism).  Either way most right thinking people realise that the asset bubbles are solely as a result of central bank policy and not due to a strong and growing economy (amazingly some people disagree that there are bubbles, Janet Yellen being one of them and Mario Draghi another...  Funny that!).

 

There are 2 schools of thought about how this ends in my view (other than the fantasists in central banks and big business leaders who stand to gain most by fooling Joe Public into continuing to invest in the largest Ponzi scheme the world has even known) and that is with a 1930s style depression of hyper-inflation.  Until we know which it is hard to know what will happen to each market but either way stocks and bonds crater I think.  Not sure about Gold and other commodities and FX remains a reasonable market because it is relative value rather than absolute value unless the whole system crashes and we go back to gold and barter off course...  Bitcoin anyone?  And BTW a lot of the smart money is going into farmland...

 

So as for today well if we get a high NFP number that would suggest Yellen must follow through on her tacit promise to raise USD rates, which would be bullish for the USD and bearish for just about everything else (unless the algo programmers decide that it is bullish for the economy and then stocks go up...LOL!).  Remember all of this will be on the probability of a rate rise not an actual rate rise and I can't see Yellen and the boys actually doing it because they know what will happen (unless the secretly want it to happen - conspiracy theorists of the World unite!).

 

If we get a low print, especially a very low one like last month or worse then the economy is struggling (as we know it is in reality) then Yellen gets a reason not to raise rates and the USD falls.  Maybe more QE comes on the radar and maybe even NIRP.  YaY! stock and bond rally like a MF!!!!  And Gold and Silver also rally because they love low interest and especially NIRP.

 

Seriously though how can anyone A: predict what the number will be and B: predict how the algos will react?  Best to wait and see.  For me I just stick with the technical analysis and hang the rest of it.  After the dust settles there will be more trading opportunities why take the stress and risk of trading NFP unless there is a giant size opportunity at low risk, which I don't see, do you?

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Hi all,

 

Thanks for the estimates and thoughts on NFPs, always interesting to read! 

 

The figures came in at 156k for those who haven't seen yet and , I think your guess may have been the closest we've ever had, so congratulations!

 

Have a nice weekend all!

 

Dan

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