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Early Morning Call: IMF warns price stability should take precedence over financial stability

The IMF adjusted its world growth forecast for 2023 as it warned that the financial system is not out of the woods yet and could still result in a new crisis.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 12 April 2023

Equity market overview

Equity markets traded mostly higher in the Asia-Pacific region on Wednesday following a mixed session in the US.

Japan stocks outperformed the region, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.62% higher. Producer price index in the world’s third largest economy remained flat in March month-on-month (MoM) and rose 7.2% from a year earlier. It follows an 8.3% increase in February.

IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) adjusted its world growth forecast for 2023 as it warned that the financial system is not out of the woods yet and could still result in a new crisis.

The IMF forecast real GDP growth of 2.8% in 2023 and 3.0% in 2024, one tenth of a percentage point lower than it forecast in January for each year. In 2022, the economy grew by 3.4%.

This adjustment reflects weaker performances expected in Japan, Germany, India and Brazil. As for the UK, the IMF expects a shallower contraction but says the UK will remain the worst-performing economy in G7 with a contraction of 0.3% this year before a 1% rebound in 2024.

The IMF also urged member countries to keep tightening monetary policy to fight persistently high inflation. According to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF chief economist, inflation is still the bigger problem. Price stability should be prioritised over financial stability risks for central banks' monetary policy.

Asked whether continued rate hikes were creating bigger stability risks, Gourinchas' assessment was a firm "no". "The financial instability looks very much contained." Adjusting monetary policy now based on stability risks means that "we are not doing enough on the inflation front and that is creating a problem of its own."

Inflation

Inflation is very much what the market is now focused on. This afternoon at 1.30 pm, the US consumer price index (CPI) rise is expected to slow to 5.2% in March year-on-year (YoY), after a 6% rise in February. But Core CPI is forecast to accelerate to 5.6%, a tenth of a percentage point more than the previous month.

A bit later at 3pm, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will publish the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting. Economists anticipate the status quo to remain here. The overnight rate should stay at 4.5% as it has been since January.

At its last meeting in March, the BoC stated that it should continue to hold the rate at the current level should economic conditions develop broadly in line with expectations. The Bank of Canada was the first of the major economies to pause its tightening cycle.

Fed minutes from the March meeting are due to be released at 7pm. Traders will look through it for clues on the monetary path of the central bank as well as the impact of the banking stresses in March.

The turmoil in the banking sector had led some to expect that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates to alleviate some of the stress in the market, but a sticky inflationary environment is unlikely to give the Fed much room.

 

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This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe to open a little weaker after a late sell off on Wall St last night

FX: Watching GBP ahead of UK GDP data out at 7am. USD holds losses after tame headline CPI data yesterday and soft Fed Minutes. Solid jobs data in Australia makes AUD best performer today 

Equities: Earnings – TSCO IMB PZC. Last night LVMH saw sales exceed forecasts for Q1. AAPL continues to build its India output now 7% of global iPhone prod 

Commods: US Crude at a new high for 2023 after strong China demand data. Gold holds recent gains

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: USD remains on back foot after US CPI, Fed minutes

The US dollar remained on the back foot on Thursday, after falling on Wednesday afternoon at the release of a cooler-than-anticipated US CPI.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 13 April 2023 

USD struggling

The US dollar remained on the back foot on Thursday. The greenback fell yesterday afternoon at the release of a cooler-than-anticipated US CPI. US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% in March month-on-month (MoM) last month after advancing 0.4% in February. The market expected a gain of 0.2%. Year-on-year (YoY), the index increased by 5%, its slowest pace since May 2021.

Fed minutes published on Wednesday evening showed that several Federal Reserve policymakers considered pausing interest rate increases after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, but the conclusion was that tackling high inflation remained the priority. The minutes also showed projections of a mild recession later this year, followed by a recovery in 2024-25.

Equity markets

Equity markets mostly fell in APAC overnight. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell the most in the wake of the Nasdaq's performance during Wednesday’s session.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 declined after the release of another strong job report in the country. The unemployment rate held near 50-year lows at 3.5% in March, while net employment rose 53,000 in March from February. The market had forecast a rise of 20,000. Full-time employment surged by 72,200, after a similar increase in February.

Strong job gains could mean a slower return to inflation targets, suggesting that the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) tightening campaign may not be over yet.

In China, exports unexpectedly rose in March, rising 14.8%, ending five months of decline. Economists polled by Reuters had expected exports to fall by 7%. Imports rose by a smaller-than-expected 1.4%, meaning that the trade surplus was much larger than anticipated, at just over $88 billion.

China's crude oil imports rose 22.5% in March from a year earlier to the highest for a month since June 2020. Crude imports averaged 12.3 million barrels per day.

Commodities

Oil prices benefited from US inflation data on Wednesday, rising their highest level since November 2022. US crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week, according to EIA data, helped by the release of US strategic Petroleum Reserves. Crude stocks rose by 597,000 barrels. Analysts had forecast a 600,000-barrel drop.

Stocks of crude oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined 1.6 million barrels, the first drawdown this year.

Gasoline and distillate inventories fell less than expected, respectively by 300,000 and 600,000 barrels.

UK GDP

UK monthly gross domestic product (GDP) was flat in February MoM. The market expected a 0.1% expansion. Industrial production fell by 3.1% YoY, less than the 3.7% decline economists anticipated.

A few macroeconomic indicators are scheduled this Thursday. At 10am, industrial production in the eurozone is expected to rise by 1% in February compared to January, and in the US, the market awaits producer price index for March, and initial jobless claims.

Equities

Tesco reported a full-year adjusted operating profit of £2.63bn, in line with expectations. Statutory revenue was up 7.2% to £65.7bn - including fuel sales which were up 23.3%.

The supermarket chain proposed a final dividend of 7.05 pence per share, taking full-year dividend to 10.90 pence, in line with last year's full-year dividend.

Luxury goods giant LVMH has seen a "significant rebound" in sales in Asia which has helped boost its first quarter (Q1) numbers. The easing of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions, particularly in China, has been a big generator of that climb in sales. Sales were up 17% to €18.5bn.

Bloomberg reported that Apple assembled more than $7 billion worth of iPhones in India last fiscal year, tripling production in the world's fastest-growing smartphone arena after accelerating a move beyond China. The US company now makes almost 7% of its iPhones in India through expanding partners from Foxconn Technology to Pegatron.

Also, according to Japanese newspaper Nikkei, Apple is in talks with suppliers to make MacBooks in Thailand. The group has been mass-producing its Apple Watch in Thailand for more than a year.

 

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Charting the Markets: 13 April

FTSE 100, DAX and Dow push higher. EUR/USD, GBP/USD rally on weaker greenback while USD/CAD slips. And Brent crude oil and gold rise as natural gas slides.

Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Thursday 13 April 2023

 

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Look ahead to 14/4/23: US bank earnings – JPM, C, WFC

The next three weeks could be critical for the markets, depending on what comes out of the first quarter earnings season.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 13 April 2023 15:20

IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the main event on Friday, Q1 earnings from JP Morgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC). All three companies trade all-sessions on the IG platform.

 

 

 

 

 

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Today’s coverage:

Indices: More gains for Europe with the CAC at another record high Dax 15mth high. Wall St all up and gains across much of Asia. China weakness as authorities move to shore up banks with $5.8bln support pkge 

FX: USD weakness persisting pushing EURUSD to more than 12mth highs   

Equities: US Q1 earnings before the bell from JPM C WFC expected to dominate the day. In London HAS Q1. Boeing halts some 737 MAX planes on quality concerns.

Commods: Gold just $30 from a record high. Coffee Robusta record high on supply constraints. Oil holding the recent gains  

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: USD at 1-year low after more soft US data while gold nears record high

US equity markets rose in Thursday’s session, as the dollar continued to weaken after the release of a couple of US indicators.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 14 April 2023 

USD continues to weaken

US equity markets rose in Thursday’s session, as the dollar continued to weaken after the release of a couple of US indicators.

After US CPI on Wednesday, US producer price index for March, released yesterday, dropped the most since April 2020, while initial jobless claims rose more than expected. As the US dollar weakens, gold is on track for a second consecutive week of gains.

Now the market awaits US retail sales at 1.30pm. Economists anticipate the index to fall by 0.4% in March month-on-month (MoM). It will be followed at 2.15pm by industrial production, forecast to rise 0.2% in March compared to February, and Michigan consumer sentiment which should remain at 62 in April.

Asia-Pacific indices followed the US lead overnight and European equity markets opened higher this Friday.

US earnings

US earnings will be the main focus, with reports expected from three of the largest US banks.

JPMorgan Chase, the largest US bank by assets, is scheduled to release its first quarter (Q1) earnings before the US market opens. The market expects the bank to post earnings of $3.41 per share, an increase of about 24% on the same quarter a year ago. Revenue is forecast to rise 14% to $36.13 billion.

As ever, forecasting for the months to come will be key. As the economy is expected to slow later this year, investors will be particularly focused on the amount banks will set aside to cover potential loan losses. In the case of JPMorgan, analysts anticipate a provision for credit losses in the region of $2.25bn.

The flow of deposits will be also closely watched. With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, we saw deposits leaving smaller regional banks for larger ones. But since the same big banks agreed to rescue First Republic Bank, concerns appeared on whether the crisis that hit regional banks had spread to the broader banking system.

Citigroup is also set to report its quarterly earnings before the opening bell. Earnings are expected at $1.70 per share, on revenue of just over £20bn, and Wells Fargo is forecast to post earnings of $1.12 per share on revenue of $20.12bn.

Elsewhere on the equity market, Superdry says it is considering an equity raise, and has withdrawn its profit guidance for the current year of “broadly breakeven”.

Boeing, meanwhile, announced late last night it is halting the production of some 737 aircrafts over supplier issues.

Commodities

On the commodity market, WTI and Brent are poised to post a fourth straight week of gains.

Traders will remain attentive to the evolution of coffee prices. The coffee rally continues as traders express concerns about weather conditions in Vietnam, the world's top robusta producer. London robusta coffee now trades at 11 1/2 year highs.

The market has so far been supported by tight supplies, and there are now concerns that dry conditions in Vietnam could dent the outlook for the 2023-24 crop.

 

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Charting the Markets: 14 April

Softer US PPI inflation data boosted equities with the FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 all resuming their ascents while the US dollar slid to a one-year low, benefitting EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD.

Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 14 April 2023 

Gold and silver reached new one-year highs while the price of coffee also surged as dry conditions hit the output.

 

 

 

 

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This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

VIX dips below 20 for the first time in 6 weeks as risk continues to be the priority

Indices: European markets continue to climb scoring more record highs for the CAC – Europe expected to open a little higher

FX: USD holding Friday’s gains, but GBP is likely to b the focus of attention this week with retail sales, jobs, inflation and consumer confidence

Equities: PAGE Q1 TS

Commods: Gold regroups after biggest drop in 11 weeks. Oil little changed  

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: FTSE 100 opens higher; John Wood Group/Apollo proposal

John Wood Group said it would engage with Apollo Management for a firm offer at a price of 240 pence per share.

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 17 April 2023 09:27

Indices overview

Equity markets in Europe opened higher this morning, as the volatility index dipped below 20 for the first time in six weeks.

Very little is expected today in terms of macroeconomic indicators. In the US, investors await NY Empire state manufacturing index and NAHB housing market data.

Last Friday, GBP/USD set a new 10-month high, before losing ground at the release of growth and industrial output data. This week, the British currency is likely to react to the release of the unemployment rate on Tuesday, expected to remain near a record low at 3.7% in February.

On Wednesday, consumer price index (CPI) growth is forecast to decelerate to 9.8% in March. A month ago, CPI unexpectedly edged higher to 10.4%, recording a seventh month of double-digit growth in eight months.

On Friday, Gfk consumer confidence is expected to fall to -35 in April, which would be a thirteen-month high, but still far from pre-pandemic levels, and retail sales are forecast to decline in March for a 12th straight month.

Equities

Elsewhere in the equity markets, PageGroup posted a first quarter (Q1) gross profit of £262.7 million, down 2.4%, and maintained its full-year (FY) operating profit forecast.

John Wood Group said it would engage with Apollo Management for a firm offer at a price of 240 pence per share. Apollo now has a month to announce its firm intention to make an offer.

After reports from JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo last Friday, the US earnings season will go ahead full throttle from tomorrow with reports from two other major banking institutions, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, as well as Johnson & Johnson and Netflix.

On Wednesday, Tesla, IBM and Alcoa will take centre stage, followed on Thursday by AT&T, American Express and Philip Morris and on Friday by Procter & Gamble and Schlumberger.

Tesla is forecast to post earnings of 86 cents per share, and revenue is set to rise by 20% compared to the same period last year, to $23.3 billion. Any comments on production and deliveries will be welcomed by investors. Earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk considered it possible for Tesla to produce two million cars this year. But given the current economic environment, demand is really what preoccupies the market.

To support demand, Tesla has cut its prices five times since January, raising two questions: for how long will demand slow, and how badly will it affect margins?

Commodities

On the commodity market, oil prices were little changed on Monday, following a fourth consecutive week on gains.

On Friday, Baker Hughes oil rig count showed that the number of oil rigs in operation declined by two to 588, and gas rigs by one, meaning that total rigs were down three to 748.

Gold was down from last week highs but remained above $2000.

 

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Charting the Markets: 17 April

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Nasdaq 100 continue to advance cautiously. EUR/USD, GBP/USD top out and USD/JPY rises as US dollar recovers from one-year low. And gold and copper rise, while oil prices edge back.

Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 17 April 2023

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe looking a little weaker today after more intraday gains on Monday. Some of Asia benefits from China GDP better than expected

FX: AUDNZD 6wk high after RBA minutes showed a rise in rates was discussed, but a pause was the outcome. Watching EURUSD ahead of German ZEW. Watching USDCAD ahead of Canada CPI  

Equities: Earnings EZJ THG JNJ NFLX GS BAC. AAPL announces 4.15% savings account with GS

Commods: Gold back below $2000. Oil broadly holding Monday’s losses 

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: easyJet confident it can beat FY market expectations

Strong demand during the Easter weekend despite French strikes and strong bookings for the summer mean the British airline is confident it will beat market expectations for a £260 million profit.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 18 April 2023 

Indices overview

The Hang Seng index was the underperformer overnight in the Asia-Pacific region.

China's economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the first quarter (Q1). Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 4.5% compared to the same quarter a year ago, faster than the 2.9% in the previous quarter, and beating economists' forecasts for a 4% increase. But China's rebound has so far remained uneven. Consumption, services and infrastructure spending have showed improvement, but factory output has lagged in the face of weak global growth.

Also released this morning, retail sales growth quickened to 10.6%, beating expectations, while factory output growth also rose by 3.9% year-on-year (YoY) but was just below expectations.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 also ended the session lower as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes revealed that Australian policymakers considered hiking rates for an 11th time in April before deciding to pause. The minutes showed that "members agreed there was a stronger case to pause at this meeting and reassess the need for further tightening at future meetings".

Since the decision last month to keep rates at 3.6%, RBA governor Philip Lowe has been repeating that the pause did not imply that the increases were over. Further tightening could prove to be necessary should inflation and consumer demand stay hot.

Earlier this month, retail sales came softer than expected, but strong full-time employment data emerged last week. Full-time employment surged by 72,200, after a similar increase in February, helping to keep the unemployment rate near 50-year lows. Full-time employment is particularly important as it gives visibility to households and gives them the confidence to increase spending.

Now the market awaits the RBA trimmed mean CPI for the first quarter for a further clue on what it could decide at its next meeting on May 2nd.

UK unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.8% in February, from 3.7% he previous month. Later today, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment is expected to improve to 15.1 in April, after 13 in March.

On the other side of the Atlantic, Canada consumer price index (CPI) growth should continue to decelerate. The market forecast a 4.3% rise in March YoY, down from a 5.2% increase the previous month.

Corporate news

On the corporate front, easyJet expects its 2023 profit to be ahead of market expectations. Strong demand during the Easter weekend despite French strikes and strong bookings for the summer mean the British airline is confident it will beat market expectations for a £260 million profit.

THG posted a full-year (FY) operating loss of £495.6m, and a 2.7% rise in revenue to £2.24 billion. THG's shares rose more than 40% after it said it had received a "highly preliminary" buyout proposal from Apollo Global Management. But if you look at a long-term chart the online retail platform was valued at more than £10 billion in early 2021, but its shares lost more than 90% of their value after it issued a string of profit warnings in the last 12 months.

In the US, investors wait to see if Goldman Sachs and Bank of America earnings will match the ones on Friday, when JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all posted better-than-expected reports.

Goldman Sachs' earnings are forecast at $8.24 per share. Revenue is expected at $12.83bn, a partial recovery after the heavy declines of investment banking and asset and wealth management units.

The Street expects Bank of America to post earnings of 81 cents per share on revenue of $25.25bn.

Outside the banking sector, Johnson & Johnson will report before market. Analysts expect earnings of $2.50 per share and revenue of $23.61bn.

And Netflix is scheduled to post its quarterly earnings tonight after market close. The market expects earnings of $2.86 per share or revenue of $8.17bn.

Revenue has now become really important for investors as Netflix announced last October that, from the first quarter of 2023, it would no longer provide subscriber guidance: "Revenue is our primary top line metric, particularly as we develop additional revenue streams where membership is just one component of our growth".

 

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Charting the Markets: 18 April

FTSE 100, DAX and Dow on track for further gains. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP are heading back down again while AUD/USD tries to recover. And Brent crude oil and gold stabilise while sugar remains bid on strong China data.

Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 18 April 2023 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Look Ahead to 19/04/23: UK inflation; Tesla, Alcoa, Morgan Stanley, IBM & ASML earnings

The earnings season ramps up a notch with Tesla, Alcoa, Morgan Stanley, ASML, and Abbot Laboratories releasing quarterly earnings. Watch sterling ahead of UK inflation and retail data.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe continues to knock up against recent highs, more records for CAC

FX: Watching GBP ahead of UK CPI for March     

Equities: Earnings today – ASML JET TSLA IBM MS. Last night NFLX fell 12% on rev outlook, but upbeat presser saw a recovery, stk up 0.2% at all sessions close

Commods: Gold remains around $2000. Oil down a little. Cocoa up again to 6 ½ high 

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: UK inflation remains stubbornly above 10% in March

In the UK, consumer price index remains stubbornly above 10%, at 10.1%, down from 10.4%, but above the 9.8% expected by economists

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023 

Equity market overview

Equity markets in Europe opened little changed on Wednesday, following the path of US indices yesterday.

In the UK, consumer price index (CPI) remains stubbornly above 10%, at 10.1%, down from 10.4%, but above the 9.8% expected by economists. This maintains the pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to keep raising interest rates.

Earnings

ASML Holding reported first quarter (Q1) earnings of €1.96 billion on revenues of €6.75bn. Analysts had forecast net profit of €1.62bn on revenue of €6.31bn.

The key supplier to computer chip makers sees net sales in the current quarter between €6.5bn and €7bn, also topping expectations of €6.42bn, adding that total demand still exceeds capacity for his year.

Just Eat Takeaway orders amounted to 227.8 million in the first quarter, missing expectations of 231.1 million. Still, the group raised its 2023 adjusted core profit outlook. Europe's biggest meal delivery company expects adjusted EBITDA of €275 million in 2023. Earlier in January, the group guided for adjusted EBITDA of €225 million. It also announced a €150m share buyback programme.

Netflix beat Wall Street Q1 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by a whisker on Tuesday evening. The streaming video company posted earnings of $2.88 per share, two cents higher than forecast. Revenue came broadly in line at $8.16bn. From January through March, Netflix added 1.75 million streaming subscribers, missing analyst estimates of 2.06 million additions.

For the current quarter, Netflix came up with lower-than-expected numbers. It forecast $8.242bn in revenue and a diluted EPS at $2.86. Analysts expected on average $8.47 billion for revenue and $3.05 for EPS.

Netflix stock initially dropped in extended trading by around 12%, but completely recovered its losses, lifted by an upbeat post-earnings video interview. "We are growing and we are profitable," said co-chief executive Ted Sarandos, adding "We have a clear path to accelerate growth in both revenue and profit, and we're executing it."

Tesla is scheduled to report earnings tonight after UK market close. The street expects earnings of 86 cents per share, and revenue is forecast to rise by 20% compared to the same period last year, to $23.78bn.

Earlier this year CEO, Elon Musk considered it possible for Tesla to produce two million cars this year. But given the current economic environment, demand is really what preoccupies the market. To support demand, Tesla has repeatedly cut its prices since January. Earlier this morning it did so for a sixth time this year. The group cut the price of its model Y long-range and performance by $3,000, and its model 3 RWD by $2,000.

Tesla started cutting prices in China in January, then more recently in Europe, Israel and Singapore, which certainly will raise concerns about its profit margins.

Also after the bell, IBM reports. The street anticipates earnings of $1.27 per share. Revenue is expected to rise marginally to $14.37bn, but below IBM expectations of $14.58bn.

In detail the group is forecast to post a 1.2% rise in software revenue, and a 3.7% revenue rise in its consulting revenue. Infrastructure revenue is expected to slip 1%.

Commodities

On the commodity market, oil prices were little changed on Wednesday morning. US crude oil and fuel inventories fell last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute report published on Tuesday evening. Crude stocks fell by about 2.7 million barrels in the week ended April 14, they said.

Gasoline inventories fell by about a million barrels, while distillate stocks fell by about 1.9 million barrels.

 

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Charting the Markets: 19 April

FTSE 100, CAC 40 and S&P 500 likely to consolidate. EUR/USD steady, while GBP/USD and USD/CAD rise. And WTI and silver are topping out short-term while cocoa trades in 6 ½ year highs.

Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

16 Candlestick Patterns Every Trader Should Know | IG US

 

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Look Ahead to 20/4/23: Eurozone consumer confidence; WH Smith, AT&T and American Express earnings

The spotlight falls on the consumer both sides of the Atlantic with consumer confidence numbers from the eurozone, and results from WH Smith, AT&T, and credit card giant American Express.

Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Wednesday 19 April 2023

 

 

 

 

 

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Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe expected to open little changed from Wednesday’s close

Equities: TSLA disappointed last night after the bell stk down 7.8%. IBM rose 0.8% after Q1. Earnings today – SMWH RIO ATT AXP PM

FX: Kiwi biggest mover – falling after soft NZ inflation data. USD little move. As expected China keeps rates on hold. JPN annual trade deficit widens to a record as exports slow from 6.5% to 4.3%

Commods: Gold consolidates below $2000. Oil at its lowest point his month 

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: Germany PPI shows lowest increase in nearly two years

In Germany, producer price index fell more than expected month-on-month, and was down 2.6% in March.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 20 April 2023 

Indices overview

Equity markets are little changed around the globe.

Yesterday, the Dow Jones recorded the largest daily variation with a 0.23% fall.

The currency market is equally hesitant this Thursday, apart from the New Zealand dollar, which is down against all major currencies as consumer price index in the country rose 6.7% year-on-year (YoY) in the first three months of the year, slowing from the 7.2% increase in the fourth quarter (Q4).

In China, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) kept its key lending rates unchanged for an eighth straight month earlier this morning. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was left unchanged at 3.65%, while the five-year LPR, which is the reference for mortgages, was kept at 4.3%

In Japan, import growth continued to outpace exports in March, due on the import side to the cost of energy prices, and on the export side to a fall of shipments to China. Exports rose 4.3% in March from a year earlier, logging a 25th straight month of increase. This was more than economists' median estimate of a 2.6% gain, but below the 6.5% increase recorded in February. Exports to China, Japan's largest trading partner, fell 7.7%.

Australia's central bank is expected to get a new specialist board to manage monetary policy that will give independent expert members more responsibility for setting interest rates, a dilution of the bank's traditional power over policy. The review recommended the MPB meet eight times a year, instead of the current 11, more in line with international practice.

In Germany, producer price index (PPI) fell more than expected month-on-month (MoM), and was down 2.6% in March. Economists had anticipated a 0.5% fall. This mean that PPI rose by "only" 7.5% YoY, after a 15.8% rise the previous month, the smallest rise since May 2021.

Also expected today, initial jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index and existing home sales in the US, and at 3pm, eurozone consumer confidence flash is forecast to rise to -18.5 in April, from -19.2 the previous month, which would be a 14-month high for the index.

Equities

Elsewhere on the equity market, Rio Tinto reported a better-than-expected 15.4% jump in iron ore shipments in the first quarter (Q1).

Rio Tinto shipped 82.5 million tonnes of iron ore from Pilbara operations in the period, to be compared with the 71.5 million tonnes of the first tree months of 2022, and beating analysts' 79.8 million tonnes forecast.

Rio reaffirmed its annual iron ore shipments forecast of between 320 and 335 MT and unit cost estimate of $21 to $22.5 per tonne of Pilbara iron ore.

Tesla shares fell by nearly 8% in extended trading after the electric car maker posted its lowest quarterly gross margin in two years. Top and bottom lines were marginally below expectations. Tesla posted earnings of 85 cents per share on revenue of $23.30 billion. The Street anticipated earnings per share (EPS) of 86 cents and revenue at $23.78bn.

Since January Tesla has cut its prices, first in China, then in Europe and the US, in an attempt to spur demand and fend off rising competition. But as expected this had an impact on gross margins, which fell to 19.3%, lower than the 21.2% expected by analysts.

In the conference call following the release, CEO Elon Musk said "It was better to shift a large number of cars at lower margin and harvest that margin in the future as we perfect autonomy."

Investors were also taken aback by Tesla's production forecast. Musk had said earlier this year two million vehicle deliveries were achievable, a number he didn't confirm yesterday evening. Instead, he stood by the company's official target of 1.8 million deliveries.

IBM posted mixed results yesterday evening. Earnings per share came in higher than expected at $1.36, 9 cents, while revenue fell marginally short of expectations, at $14.30bn. Shares initially rose at the release but quickly pared these gains to end the session 0.56% higher.

Set to report earnings today are AT&T, Philip Morris, and American Express.

Commodities

US crude oil inventories last week fell more than forecast. Crude oil stocks fell 4.6 million barrels. Analysts anticipated a 1.1 million barrel fall.

This was due to an increase of refining activity. Refinery utilisation rates rose by 1.7 percentage points to 91%, its highest rate since late December.

Meanwhile gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose on disappointing demand by 1.3 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles fell by 400,000 barrels.

 

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Charting the Markets: 20 April

Indices come under pressure in early trading. EUR/USD, EUR/GBP trade sideways while USD/JPY continues its ascent. And Brent crude oil slides, sugar stalls and gold stabilises.

Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Thursday 20 April 2023

 

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: AUD falls as RBA surprises with 25bp hike

The S&P/ASX 200 fell and the Australian dollar jumped as the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised its interest rates by 25-basis points to 3.85%.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 02 May 2023 

RBA surprises with rate hike

In Australia the S&P/ASX 200 fell and the Australian dollar jumped as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly raised its interest rates by 25-basis points (bp) to 3.85%, and warned that further tightening of monetary policy may be needed, depending on how the economy and inflation evolve.

There are two big rate decisions this week. Tomorrow, the Federal Funds Rates are expected to rise by 25-basis points to a target range of 5%-5.25%. Economic data is now more reflecting the effects of the speed at which rates have been rising in the US, however, while GDP is slowing, with the potential this year that the US economy could go into recession, inflation is still far from under control.

On Thursday, it's the turn of the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver its latest rate decision. A majority of economists expect the ECB's main refinancing rate to rise by 25-basis points to 3.75%. The deposit facility rate is forecast to rise to 3.25%, and the marginal lending rate to 4%.

At the back end of last week, there was some pleasant news around gross domestic product (GDP) in both Spain and Italy, while Germany and France remain close to flat GDP quarter on quarter (QoQ). And, like in other regions worldwide, inflation remains stubbornly high.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) says food prices at British supermarkets rose 15.7% in the year to April, the biggest annual increase in records going back to 2005, but lower prices are on horizon. Overall inflation among BRC members dropped to 8.8% from March's 8.9% as price increases for non-food items slowed due to heavy discounting of clothing, footwear, and furniture. Costlier coffee beans and more expensive packaging and production of ready-meals pushed up food inflation, but prices of butter and vegetable oil were starting to decline.

Business confidence in the UK is up for a fifth month in a row, according to lobby group the Institute of Directors (IoD). The IoD's "economic confidence index", which surveys company directors on issues such as the wider economy and their own plans for hiring and investment, rose to -5 in April, up from -13 the previous month. The reading was -64 in November last year.

This latest reading takes the index back to levels last seen immediately before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 when it was a fraction more positive at -4.

Later today, eurozone consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise by 6.8% in April year-on-year (YoY), after a 6.9% rise the previous month.

In the US, the market awaits JOLTs job openings, factory orders, and API crude oil inventories.

Equities

Elsewhere on the equity market, HSBC posted a pretax profit of $12.9 billion for the first quarter, up 212% YoY, much higher than the $8.64bn average estimate of 17 analysts compiled by the bank.

HSBC's headline profit was boosted by a reversal of a $2bn impairment it took against the planned sale of its French business, as the deal may no longer go through. HSBC announced a dividend of $0.10 per share, its first quarterly dividend since 2019.

BP posted a $5bn profit in the first quarter (Q1), beating expectations of $4.3bn, but a drop on the $6.25bn recorded a year ago. The group also said it will repurchase a further $1.75 billion of shares over the next three months after buying $2.75 billion in the previous three months. BP's dividend remained unchanged at 6.61 cents per share after a 10% increase in February.

In the US, pharmaceutical giant Pfizer is due to report its first quarter earnings before market open. Analysts anticipate earnings of 97 cents per share, on revenue of $16.65bn. The same quarter a year ago, Pfizer posted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.62, and revenue of $25.66bn.

As in the case of its competitors, Pfizer’s top and bottom line will reflect a drop in Covid-related sales. In the case of Pfizer, the combined revenue from its Covid vaccine and antiviral pill in expected at $21.5bn this year, compared to the $57.6bn recorded in 2022.

This set of earnings will be the first since the acquisition of Seagen. The oncology company, acquired in a $43bn deal, is forecast to generate revenue of about $2.2bn this year. Pfizer estimates this could rise up to $10bn by 2030.

Uber Technologies is expected to post a considerably narrower loss of 8 cents per share for the first quarter. The same quarter a year ago, Uber recorded a loss per share of $3.04. Revenue is forecast by some 26% to $8.7bn. Uber earnings are due before market open.

Tonight after the US closing bell, Ford Motor is expected to post earnings for Q1. Analysts expect 40 cents per share, after a loss of 78 cents a year ago, on revenue of $39.25bn, up 13% year-on-year. It would be the fourth straight quarter of sales growth for the US car maker, 'driven' by its North American market.

The market will have a close look at the group's EV division after it cut prices in January after Tesla did the same. Margins are likely to be affected. Tesla posted its lowest gross margins in two years.

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Charting the Markets: 2 May

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD as RBA hikes rates by 25 basis-points with Fed and ECB likely to follow suit. Brent crude oil and gold slip while copper price rises.

 

 

 

 

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage:

Indices: Looking at a higher open across Europe today after the drop yesterday. Technically there’s still a target of October 2022 lows, at some point. Techs worst hit 

FX: USD on the block today ahead of the US rate decision. Fed continues to focus purely on inflation and expected to steer the economy into recession

Equities: Earnings – LLOY HLN MTRO BDEV STLA LHA AIR BNP RYA

Commods:  Gold back up above $2000. Oil and base metals down on renewed recession expectations, copper close to breaking 2023 low support  

 

 

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Early Morning Call: FTSE 100 opens higher as Lloyds beats expectations in Q1

Lloyds Banking Group beat profit expectations for the first quarter, with a pretax profit of £2.3 billion, above the £1.95 billion average of analyst forecasts compiled by the bank.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 03 May 2023 

Equity market overview

Asia-Pacific equity markets fell overnight.

Tech stocks weighed on the Hang Seng and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 for a second day. The Nikkei was closed as Japan celebrated Constitution Day.

Fed on rates

Tonight, the Federal Funds Rates are expected to rise by 25-basis points (bp) to a target range of 5%-5.25%. Stubborn inflation remains the single biggest risk to long-term economic problems. This remains the priority over a recession which is the short-term pain that has to be endured.

Before the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the market awaits latest ADP employment change data and ISM services PMI.

Earnings

Elsewhere on the equity market, Lloyds Banking Group beat profit expectations for the first quarter (Q1), with a pretax profit of £2.3 billion, above the £1.95 billion average of analyst forecasts compiled by the bank. Net income rose 15% to £4.7bn.

In France, BNP Paribas' profit more than doubled in the first quarter compared to a year ago, after the sale of its US division. The sale of Bank of the West yielded about €2.95Bln in capital gains, lifted the bank's net income to €4.44Bln, in line with expectations.

Deutsche Lufthansa expects strong demand for holiday travel this summer and sees significant year-on-year (YoY) improvement in adjusted EBIT for the full-year. The German airline group posted an adjusted quarterly EBIT loss of €273 million, after a €577Mln loss in the previous period. Analysts’ consensus was €-279Mln. Revenues jumped 40% to €7.02Bln, falling short of consensus for €7.57Bln.

Ryanair said traffic increased by 13% in April to 16 million customers. Load factor rose by three percentage points to 94%.

In the US, Ford Motor fell in extended trading last night after being cautious in its outlook. Ford confirmed its full-year guidance but cautioned that "higher industrywide customer incentives as vehicle supply-and-demand rebalances" will be a "headwind" for profitability. T

he carmaker posted better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) were 62 cents, compared with 38 cents a year ago. Analysts had expected 40 cents. Revenue also beat expectations.

Advanced Micro Devices fell 6.2% last night after its sales guidance missed market expectations. The chipmaker posted earnings of 60 cents per share on revenue of $5.40Bln, both lines beating estimates. But AMD missed analysts' estimates for PC and data centre chips sales for the first quarter.

AMD CEO Lisa Su told investors that the first quarter was the bottom of the market for the company's PC business and the industry, and remained confident in the group's ability to grow in the second half of the year.

 

 

 

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Charting the Markets: 3 May

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 take a hit on US bank failure contagion fears. USD weakness lifts EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while USD/JPY falls back after strong gains. WTI drops on recession fears while gold and silver rally.

 Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 03 May 2023

 

 

 

 

 

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Look Ahead 5/3/23: ECB; Apple, Lyft, Apple and Volkswagen results

Soft lending and easing inflation may pave the way for a smaller ECB rate hike. Plus, a deluge of earnings. The key ones to look out for come from Apple, Lyft, Apple and Volkswagen.

Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Wednesday 03 May 2023

 

 

 

 

 

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For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

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Today’s coverage: 

Indices: Fed decision to raise rates with ‘no prospect’ of a rate cut this year, and lingering bank fears as rates rise, leads European mkts down at the start today following a drop on Wall St. Asia gaining overnight 

FX: EURUSD up against 110.96 14mth resistance as USD lost ground again today. Today watching ECB rate decision. GBPUSD 1yr high nearing 126.60 resistance  

Equities: Earnings – SHEL NXT BAE VOW BMW MRNA AAPL LYFT COIN.

Commods: Gold hit a record high in the wake of the Fed rate decision. Oil rebounding today after hitting 18mth lows on recession fears 

 

 

 

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Early Morning Call: gold hits record high, USD, oil fall after Fed decision

As expected, the Fed raised its overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.00%-5.25% range.

 Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 04 May 2023 

Fed raises rates as expected

As expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.00%-5.25% range. The Fed has now boosted its rates by a full five percentage points in 10 meetings since March 2022.

At the press conference following the release, Fed chairman Jerome Powell said inflation remained the chief concern, and that it was too soon to say with certainty that the rate hike cycle is over.

That said, market commentators noticed one change in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement. The phrase "anticipates" further rate increases, has been dropped. It doesn't mean that it is the end of the tightening cycle, but that from now on, each policy decision will be an open question.

Powell also pushed back the possibility of a rate cut this year.

Later today, it's the turn of the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver its latest rate decision. A majority of economists expect the ECB'S main refinancing rate to rise by 25 basis points to 3.75%. The deposit facility rate is forecast to rise to 3.25%, and the marginal lending rate to 4%.

Macroeconomics

At the back end of last week, there was some pleasant news around gross domestic product (GDP) in both Spain and Italy, while Germany and France remain close to flat GDP quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). And, like in other regions worldwide, inflation remains stubbornly high.

In China, factory activity unexpectedly dipped in April. The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in April, from 50 the previous month. Economists anticipated a small rise to 50.3. This marks the first contraction since January.

In Australia, trade surplus widened A$15.27 billion in March. It is the largest trade surplus since June 2022, as exports rose more than imports. Shipments rose by 4%, while imports rose by 2%.

In the US, economists await initial jobless claims, anticipating 240,000 new claimants last week. Yesterday the ADP survey showed that the US private sector created 296,000 jobs in April, almost twice as many as expected.

Now the focus has turned to tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls (NFP). Economists forecast on average 179,000 job creations, while the unemployment rate is seen rising to 3.6%, from 3.5% the previous month, and average hourly earnings should rise by 0.3% monht-on-month (MoM), 4.2% YoY, matching last month’s pace.

Equities

On the equity market, Shell posted a net profit of $9.65 billion in the first three months of the year, beating expectations.

The oil giant kept its dividend unchanged at $0.2875 per share and also announced a new $4bln share buyback programme.

Next maintained its guidance for annual profit after posting a 0.7% decline in first quarter (Q1) full-price sales. The clothing retailer forecast a 1.5% decline in full-price sales and pretax profit of £795 million, down from the £870.4mln it made in 2022-23.

A few companies reported across Europe. Airbus posted its Q1 earnings yesterday after the close of European markets. The aircraft maker reported a lower profit for the first quarter, announcing delays of the freighter version of its new A350 jetliner.

Anheuser-Busch InBev reported higher than expected earnings on Thursday. The maker of Budweiser, Stella Artois and Corona said core profit rose by 13.6% to $4.76 billion, compared with the 5.6% average increase expected in a company-compiled poll.

Volkswagen reported a rise in revenue of 22% to €76bln billion but saw a drop in operating profit to €5.7bln, after last year's first quarter profit was boosted by commodity hedging. VW confirmed its outlook for 2023.

BMW also confirmed its sales guidance, as it posted a fall in pretax profit of €5.1bln, compared to €12.2bln last year, due to the one-time effects from the consolidation of its Chinese joint venture last year. Earnings margins rose to in the first three months of the year, and the group confirmed its outlook for 2023.

In the US, Qualcomm, an all-session stock on the IG platform, fell back 9% in extended trading, after forecasting third quarter (Q3) revenue and profit below Wall Street estimates, saying the smartphone industry would take longer to use up excess chips.

Moderna is due to report before market open. The biotech firm is expected to post its first quarterly loss in two years, as demand for Covid-19 vaccines has dropped. Moderna is forecast to post a loss of $1.75 per share. For the same quarter a year ago it recorded earnings of $8.58 per share.

Vaccine revenue is anticipated to have dropped some 80% to $1.18bln. As the fall in earnings and revenue is a given, the market now wants to know how Moderna's management envisage its future, and how it will get there. Moderna's CFO James Mock told the Financial Times recently that Moderna is not "just a respiratory vaccine business. It's a latent vaccine business. It's a personalised cancer vaccine business. It's a rare disease business."

Yet up to now, it is its only marketable product. It needs to develop these drugs, which has a cost. Research costs are expected to double in the first quarter to $1bln. Thanks to Covid, Moderna has accumulated capital of $18bln, according to its CFO. $6- to $8bln of that is to be spent over the next few years to develop influenza, Covid and RSV vaccines. The plan is to generate $8 to $15Bln in sales by 2027.

Apple is scheduled to publish earnings for its second fiscal quarter tonight after market close. The street expects earnings to come in at $1.43 per share compared to $1.52 the same quarter a year ago. Revenue is poised to reach $92.9bln, almost $4.5bln less that last year.

Analysts will be looking for any indication of how the group performed in China, as the country is now on the path to recovery. Not only is China historically Apple's most volatile market, but the region now accounts for almost one-fifth of Apple's total revenues. While in Europe and the US the market is still trying to assess the impact central banks' tightening policies have had on growth, China has already showed some so-called green shoots. Recently, the IMF said it considered China as one on the regions that would grow the most in 2023.

Also after market close, keep an eye out for Coinbase. The street expects a loss of $1.39 per share on revenue of $655mln, that would be some improvement on the fourth quarter of 2022 when the group recorded a loss of $2.39, and revenue plunged 75% to $629mln.

During its Q4 2022 earnings report, Coinbase noted that crypto markets had improved. In January alone, an increase in volatility resulted in $120 million of transaction revenue. During the first three months of 2025, the price of bitcoin rose about 75%. Bitcoin represents 35% of Coinbase's trading volume and transaction revenue.

Coinbase's userbase is also a key point for investors. It shrunk to 8.3 million users during the fourth quarter, down 25% from a year earlier.

Also look out for Lyft earnings. Analysts forecast a loss of 8 cents per share on revenue on $982mln. Lyft's forecast will also be key. Earlier this week its main competitor, Uber Technologies, posted earnings in line with expectations, and a better than anticipated forecast, which has since sent the price to levels not seen since 2022.

Other US earnings scheduled today: ConocoPhillips, AIG, and Peloton Interactive.

Commodities

US crude oil inventories fell for a third week in a row by 1.3 million barrels, according to the EIA.

Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week by 1.7 million barrels as demand weakened. Distillate stockpiles fell by 1.2 million barrels.

 

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