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[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe expected to open higher, taking 24hr mkts up for a third day in a row. SPX at 6 week highs NKY back up over 200 day SMA 

FX: EURUSD continues to rise. Watching USD EUR & GBP ahead of US, UK and eurozone flash PMI data 

Equities: Earnings – SAGA ABF JNJ MSFT

Commods: Gold up on USD weakness. Oil holding recent gains, same for base metals on continued hopes that China will deliver improved growth this year 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: gold enters bull market as dollar weakness continues

Gold is up on USD weakness while oil is holding recent gains. The picture is similar for base metals on continued hopes that China will deliver improved growth this year.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 24 January 2023 

Equity market overview

While a great part of the APAC region observes Lunar Year holidays, equity markets in Japan and Australia rose overnight, following the lead of US indices.

Yesterday the Nasdaq Composite continued to outperform the Dow Jones and S&P 500, with a gain of 2.01%.

In Australia, NAB business confidence rose for a second straight month to -1 in December, from -4 the previous month. Economists expected the index to increase to 3.

In Europe the FTSE 100, DAX and CAC 40 open today’s session higher, building on the gains recorded yesterday.

Germany Gfk consumer confidence rose to -33.9 for the month of February, after -37.6 the previous month. Later this morning, Eurozone headline manufacturing PMI is expected at 48.5 versus 47.8 in December, services PMI is expected at 50.2 versus 49.8 in December, and the composite is expected at 49.8 versus 49.3 in December.

Later in the day, in the US, none of the PMI readings are expected to have reached the 50 level meaning that the services and manufacturing remain in contraction territory.

Earnings

Elsewhere on the equity markets, Associated British Foods posted a group revenue increase of 20% to £6.7 billion in the 16 weeks to 7 January.

Primark like-for-like sales rose by 11%, total sales by 15%, ahead of group expectations. Adjusted operating profit is forecast to be better than previously expected but lower than the previous year.

In the US, Johnson & Johnson is due to report fourth quarter (Q4) earnings before market open. Earnings are expected at $2.24 per share while revenue is expected to decline by 2.5% to $23.90bn. The group's pharma business is expected to grow as some J&J best-selling drugs are gaining market share, but this should be more than offset by forex headwinds.

Microsoft is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings tonight after the US closing bell. The market forecasts earnings of $2.30 per share, which would be a 6.7% contraction from the previous year, the weakest earnings growth since 2016. Second quarter (Q2) revenue is expected to come in just above $53bn, an increase of around 2.4% year-on-year (YoY), which would be the slowest top-line growth since June 2017.

In detail, Refinitiv estimates suggest that revenue for its 'More Personal Computing' segment may fall over 15.6% compared to the same quarter a year ago. The traditional PC market still faces headwinds, with global shipments still down 28% in Q4 YoY, according to an international Data Corporation survey. This will have a direct impact on Microsoft's Windows operating system businesses and productivity software. Likewise, its 'Productivity and Business Processes' segment is also expected to moderate further to 5.4% growth from previous 9.5%. Both segments account for a combined 59% of Microsoft's overall revenue. Investors will focus on the group's Intelligent Cloud segment, now accounting for 41% of overall revenue, and its fastest-growing business.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 24 January

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq at risk of another move lower. EUR/USD and GBP/USD appreciate while EUR/GBP stalls. And Brent crude oil, gold and aluminium prices push higher.

 

Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 24 January 2023

 

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look ahead to 25/1/23: Aussie inflation; EZJ, TSLA, BA earnings

Inflation remains front and centre and on Wednesday it’s the turn of Australian trimmed mean CPI. We're watching the Australia ASX 200.

The earnings schedule has some interesting numbers to follow including discount airline easyJet (EZJ). IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor also looks at the charts for Tesla (TSLA) and Boeing (BA).

 

Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 24 January 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hustle]

Hi,

Im new here. Hope everyone is well. 

is this the general chat?

 

[OfentseIG]

12 minutes ago, Hustle said:

Hi,

Im new here. Hope everyone is well. 

is this the general chat?

 

Hi @Hustle

Welcome to IG community and thank you for reaching out. You can post any topic or question on any of our forums https://community.ig.com/forums/ 

All the best, OfentseIG

[Hustle]

Thankyou so much!

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe expected to open little changed 

FX: AUD up vs all other main FX pairs as Aussie trimmed mean CPI stronger than forecast. USD holding recent losses EURUSD new 9mth high ahead of German Ifo.  

Equities: Earnings – EZJ JDW ASML TLW BA TSLA IBM. Last night Q2 at MSFT stk down all sessions 

Commods: Gold taking a breather after turning bull yesterday. Oil holding losses from Tuesday after another steep rise in inventories from API

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: Mkts mixed but AUD given a boost by CPI data

The big move in the markets this Wednesday has been the Australian dollar, against a whole basket of FX pairs after string trimmed mean CPI. Meanwhile MSFT down after a clouded outlook.

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 25 January

FTSE 100, DAX 40, S&P 500 stall ahead of major US earnings. AUD/USD leads the way after AU inflation spike, while EUR/USD, GBP/USD follow. Gold, natural gas continue to trend, while Brent reverses lower from resistance.

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe expected up after a late rally on Wall St. Overnight HSI returned after the Chinese new year break and is climbing to near 8mth highs. AUS closed for Australia Day

FX: Mkts eagerly awaiting US Q4 GDP expected to show solid growth BUT economists are still suggesting a recession is possible   

Equities: Earnings – DGE BVIC SAP STM AAL VISA INTC. Last night TSLA rose 8% on record earnings (up 50% in 3wks) while IBM beat earnings ests, stk fell 2.3% on outlook. CVX buyback could push stk to record high ahead of earnings out Friday   

Commods: Gold 9mth high. Oil holding recent lows after inventory build. Lumber breaks higher up 33% in 3wks 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: gold hits fresh 9-month high as market awaits US Q4 GDP

Gold has reached a new nine-month high as markets eagerly await US Q4 GDP, which is expected to show solid growth, but economists are still suggesting a recession is possible.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 26 January 2023 

Equity market overview

Some equity markets reopened in Asia after the Lunar Year holiday.

The Hang Seng and Kospi posted strong gains. In South Korea, fourth quarter (Q4) gross domestic product (GDP) fell for the first time since Q2 2020, by 0.4%.

The market awaits US gross domestic product for the fourth quarter. Economists expect a 2.6% rise in Q4 quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). Also, at 1.30pm, initial jobless claims expectations are for 205,000 new claimants last week.

Durable goods orders are forecast to rise by 2.5% in December month-on-month (MoM). At 3pm, new home sales for the month of December are expected to fall by 2% MoM.

Earnings

The world's largest spirits maker Diageo said net sales rose 9.4% in the six months to 31 December, beating analyst forecasts for a 7.9% rise. Net sales grew 19% in North America, primarily driven by a favourable impact from foreign exchange. European net sales grew 13%.

Britvic recorded strong Christmas trading, with December revenue up 9%, led by the UK which showed a 13.8% increase. Its competitor Fevertree said full-year revenue rose 11% to £344 million and it expects revenue to grow between 13 and 18% in 2023.

In the US, Tesla shares rose by nearly 6% in extended hours. The electric car maker reported earnings of $1.19 per share after the US market close yesterday. That's four cents higher than analysts’ expectations. Revenue was just short of expectations at $24.32 billion.

In a call to investors, CEO Elon Musk said he expected a "pretty difficult recession this year," but demand for Tesla vehicles "will be good despite probably a contraction in the automotive market as a whole", adding that, absent external disruptions, 2023 deliveries could hit two million vehicles.

IBM posted earnings of $3.60 per share in the fourth quarter, broadly in line with analysts’ expectations. Total revenue was flat at $16.70bn in the period, compared with analysts' estimates of $16.13 billion. For 2022, IBM recorded revenue growth of 5.5%, its highest in a decade.

In terms of guidance, the company expects annual revenue growth in the mid-single digits on constant currency terms, weaker than the 12% it reported last year. Besides earnings, IBM announced 3,900 layoffs, or 1.5% of the group's workforce. The layoffs will cause a $300 million charge in the current quarter.

American Airlines is set to report its quarterly earnings before market open today. Analysts forecast EPS at 84 cents, estimates that American Airlines could easily top.

In a filing earlier this month, the airline company said it expected to earn between $1.12 to $1.17 per share in the period, far more than its previous estimate of 50 cents to 70 cents. These earnings will in any case represent a rebound from the $1.42 loss per share recorded in the same quarter last year.

Visa is expected to post its Q1 earnings after the closing bell tonight. Analysts anticipate earnings of just over $2 per share on revenue of $7.70bn.

The market also awaits earnings from Intel, Dow and Comcast.

On Friday, Chevron will report its earnings for Q4, and it is expected to post record profit for 2022, more than $37bn, double what it recorded the previous year. Ahead of its earnings, Chevron announced it was tripling its share buyback programme to $75 billion, with a quarterly dividend of 6%. It didn't set a timetable for the buybacks.

The announcement goes against last year's call by the Biden administration to invest in production to reduce energy prices for consumers and raise investments in renewable energy. Unsurprisingly, the White House wasn't long to express its disapproval. A White House spokesperson said that "For a company that claimed not too long ago that it was 'working hard' to increase oil production, handing out $75 billion to executives and wealthy shareholders sure is an odd way to show it."

Commodities

Yesterday afternoon the EIA reported a small increase in crude oil inventories. Crude stocks rose by 500,000, contrasting with the cumulative 27 million barrel increase of the first two weeks of the year.

Gasoline stocks rose by 1.8 million barrels, distillates stocks fell by 500,000

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 26 January

FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 looking for fresh gains. EUR/USD remains bid ahead of US Q4 GDP while EUR/GBP and USD/CAD stabilise. And gold and natural gas trends remain in play, as Brent builds potential bearish reversal.

Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Thursday 26 January 2023 

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

 

[MongiIG]

Look ahead to 27/1/23: US personal spending; AMEX, CVX earnings

With US Q4 GDP coming in a little stronger than expected, it shows that there is a resilience in the US economy, despite the recent record rise in US rates.

This being the case traders will be wanting to see this repeated in the personal income and spending and inflation data.

Earnings see both American Express (AMEX) and Chevron (CVX) on their respective fourth quarter earnings.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe expected up, but MACD turning down - is the rally fading? Gains pretty much across all APAC, ASX200 150pts from an all time record high

FX: USD up for 2nd day after better than forecast GDP. Today its US cor PCE data and personal spending. JPY up as Tokyo core CPI higher than forecast, keeping pressure on BoJ

Equities: Earnings – HMB CVX AMEX. INTC last night down 8% on poor Q4 and outlook. VISA last night climbed <1% 

Commods: Gold down for a second day. Oil up for a third day 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: earnings update - fashion retailers in the doldrums

Yesterday afternoon, after the European market close, LVMH posted sales of €22.7 billion for the fourth quarter of 2022.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Friday 27 January 2023 

Equity market overview

Equity markets closed higher in APAC region, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 posting its fourth week of gains.

In Japan, Tokyo consumer price index (CPI), seen as a leading indicator of nationwide trends, increased by 4.4% in January compared to the same month a year ago. Core CPI in the capital rose 4.3% in January from a year earlier, accelerating from 3.9% in December, and beating market expectations of 4.2%. It was the fastest annual gain in nearly 42 years.

Price increases are likely to moderate from next month as government's energy subsidies start. Still, inflation is likely to remain above the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% target in the coming months.

In the US, the market awaits core PCE price index at 1.30pm. Economists anticipate a 0.3% rise in December month-on-month (MoM), which would take it to 4.4% year-on-year (YoY).

Also, at 1.30pm, personal income and spending for the month of December, and at 3pm, pending home sales for December. Consensus is for a fall of 0.9% MoM.

Earnings

Yesterday afternoon, after the European market close, LVMH posted sales of €22.7 billion for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022, up 9% on Q4 2021, higher than the 7% increase anticipated by analysts.

This is a deceleration compared to the first nine months of the year when the luxury goods group's sales rose by 20%. That marked a deceleration from the 20% growth recorded in the first nine months of the year, but still to full-year (FY) revenue to €79.2bn, compared to the €64.2bn of 2021. FY net income reached €14.1bn, and the group will propose a dividend of €12 per share.

Intel Q4 earnings took shares down heavily last night. The chipmaker issued fourth quarter results that failed to meet analysts' estimates and gave a weaker-than-expected forecast. The group posted earnings of 10 cents per share, adjusted, versus the 22 cents forecast. Revenue reached $14.04bn vs. $14.57bn as expected by analysts.

Intel's revenue declined 32% year-over-year in the fourth quarter which was the fourth consecutive quarter of falling sales as the market for personal computers fell from the Covid boom. Investors can expect more pain in the first quarter. Intel called for adjusted net loss of 15 cents per share after earlier estimates of 24 cents, on $10.5bn to $11.5bn in revenue. Forecasts recently were for $13.93 billion in revenue.

Visa posted earnings of $2.18bn on revenue of $7.9bn, up 12%, its slowest pace of growth in seven quarters. Analysts had expected earnings per share (EPS) of $2.01 and revenue of $7.7bn.

Cross-border volumes jumped 22% year-over-year, lower than a 40% surge in cross-border volumes in the first quarter of 2021. The group's CFO said that "Year-over-year growth rates are going to moderate as we get past the pandemic recovery."

It will be American Express’ turn to post earnings before market open today. Analysts expect earnings of $2.23 per share on revenue of $14.22bn.

Chevron is also scheduled to post its quarterly report. EPS is expected at $4.42 and revenue at $53.83bn. Earlier this week, Chevron announced it was tripling its share buyback programme to $75 billion with a quarterly dividend of 6%.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 27 January

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow post better-than-expected US GDP numbers. Dollar likely to weaken across EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY. And gold prices decline, while WTI drifts sideways and lumber consolidates around 3-month high.

 

Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 27 January 2023

 

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Mkts start the week on a negative swing with Europe expected to open down – minds refocusing in on rates 

FX: Dominating theme this week is central bank mtgs: Fed 25bps, BoE 50bps, ECB 50bps. Today waiting German Q4 GDP – watching EURUSD

Equities: Earnings – RYA PHIA

Commods: Gold up a small fraction of last weeks losses. Oil down for a second day as confidence ebbs away that demand will be a dominating feature, at least for the time being  

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: busy week ahead with US earnings, central banks and US job report

The dominating theme this week is central bank meetings with rate decisions from the Fed, BoE and ECB.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 30 January 2023 

Central banks

It's a big week for central banks, and things kick off tomorrow, Tuesday 31st January, when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will begin its two-day meeting.

It's expected to deliver another rate hike, after seven in 2022, although at a much slower pace. The market expects a 25-basis point (bp) rise in the Federal Funds rate to between 4.50-4.75%.

The Fed's official stance has recently changed as US inflation seems to have peaked. In December the pace of inflation decelerated for a sixth straight month, rising to 6.5%, its lowest level since October 2021. US central bankers want to continue to raise rates but much more slowly, to see how the economy is responding to the previous hikes, and to make sure not to go too far.

Then on Wednesday 1 February, it will be the Bank of England's (BoE) turn to decide on its rates. With inflation at 10.5% in December, higher than in the US and the eurozone, with wages excluding bonuses rising at their fastest rate since records began in 2001, the BoE is likely to raise its main interest rate for a 10th consecutive time by half a percentage point to 4%.

At its last meeting in December, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for a 50-basis point hike to 3.5%. But the vote was split three ways. Two members voted to end the rate rises, while one backed a larger three-quarter point move. According to Reuters, economists see a similar split next week, because of the uncertainty around inflation. How fast will it fall? Is there a risk of bottoming out above the BoE's target?

The same economists surveyed by Reuters expect the BoE to trim its forecast for end-2023 inflation to 3-4% from over 5% in November. As for the hike cycle, they see just one more rate rise, to 4.25% in March, while financial markets see the end of the tightening cycle mid-2023, at 4.5%.

On Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) is seen hiking by another 50-basis points to 3%. There is little doubt about that, as ECB members made sure in the last couple of weeks to reiterate that they were very much in agreement with Christine Lagarde's scenario of another significant hike.

The ECB is also further away from reaching the limit of its rate hikes. It started its tightening cycle later than many central banks, and only raised its main rate by a total of 250-basis points in 2022, compared with 325 basis points for the BoE, and 425-basis points for the Federal Reserve (Fed).

NFPs

The other big event this week is non-farm payrolls (NFPs) on Friday. Economists anticipate 185,000 job creations in January, following 223,000 in December. The unemployment rate should rise one notch to 3.6%, and average hourly earnings are forecast to increase by 0.3% month-on-month (MoM), 4.3% year-on-year (YoY).

At 9am, we'll know the first estimate of Germany's GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter (Q4). Economists anticipate it to be flat quarter-on-quarter, and a rise of 1.3% year-on-year.

Equities

Elsewhere on the equity markets, Ryanair said it is confident it can sustain its profitable run into next year and beyond. Europe’s largest low-cost airline’s profit after tax in the fiscal third quarter through December reached €211 million, compared with a loss of €96 million a year earlier. That's less than the estimate for €263.3 million by Bloomberg.

The company reiterated its full-year (FY) profit outlook range of €1.325 billion to €1.425 billion, which Ryanair had raised earlier this month.

Philips announced this morning it will part with 6,000 jobs to restore its profitability. This follows the recall of respiratory devices that knocked off 70% of its market value. Philips reported fourth quarter adjusted EBITA of €651 million compared to €647 million a year before. According to Bloomberg, analysts expected €383.1m.

Because of the recall of these ventilators, Philips had to take an impairment charge, which means that in net terms, the group posted a loss of posts of €105m.

Renault and Nissan have found an agreement to restructure of their two decade old alliance. Renault will reduce its stake in Nissan to 15% from around 43%, transferring the 28% stake in the Japanese automaker to a French trust, which will the sell these shares worth around $4.1 billion at current market values. As part of the deal, Nissan will invest in Renault's new battery-electric vehicle unit.

US earnings

US earnings publications continue this week with Pfizer, AMD, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, McDonald's, and General Motors on Tuesday.

Meta Platforms and Altria will report on Wednesday, followed on Thursday by Amazon.com, Apple, Alphabet, Ford Motor, and ConocoPhillips.

Commodities

OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is due to meet virtually on Wednesday. According to Reuters, citing five OPEC+ sources, the organisation is likely to maintain its current oil output policy.

Note that this is not a full OPEC+ meeting. No decisions or recommendations are expected, the JMMC will only discuss the economic outlook and the scale of Chinese demand.

At its last meeting in December, the group left its policy unchanged, and their next full meeting is not scheduled until June.

In other news, Baker Hughes total rig count remained at 771 last week. Oil rigs in operation fell by four to 609.

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look Ahead to 31/1/23: Big data from the US, China, Japan; PFE, XOM, AMD earnings

Ahead of the Fed meeting and the key US jobs report, investors get set to digest retail sales numbers from Germany and Japan. Plus, look out for consumer-related data from China, France, and the US.

Earnings see Pfizer (PFE), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) hand in their Q4 report cards.

 

Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Monday 30 January 2023

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

IMF raises global growth forecasts, but confirms UK is in recession. China and India combined will drive more than 50% of global growth 

Indices: European equity markets to open down - reality bites as traders accept that rates continue to climb as inflation remains high. AUD down as Aussie retail sales down. EU GDP data today 

FX: USD is now on its longest upward streak since October last year as Fed starts its two day rate meeting where rates are expected to climb 25bps

Equities: Earnings – good numbers from UBS. Later today - PFE XOM GM CAT AMD MCD UPS SNAP

Commods: Gold down for a 4th day in a row as USD strengthens. Oil at 3wk lows. Copper 2wk lows 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: IMF raises 2023 global growth forecast, but cuts UK outlook

Overnight, the IMF raised its 2023 global growth outlook to 2.9%, from a previous estimate of 2.7% in October.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 31 January 2023 

Macro overview

Equity markets open lower in Europe, following the path of US and APAC indices.

Overnight, the IMF raised its 2023 global growth outlook to 2.9%, from a previous estimate of 2.7% in October. It remains below the 3.4% global growth recorded in 2022. The IMF revised its expectations after observing "surprisingly resilient" demand in the United States and Europe, an easing of energy costs and the reopening of China's economy.

For 2024, the IMF said global growth would accelerate slightly to 3.1%, a touch lower than the 3.2% October forecast. In detail, the IMF now expects US GDP growth of 1.4%, up from 1.0% predicted in October and following 2.0% growth in 2022.

Also upwardly revised, eurozone GDP growth is now forecast at 0.7% for 2023, versus a previous estimate of 0.5%, and following 3.5% growth in 2022. The UK is the only major advanced economy the IMF predicts to be in recession this year, with a 0.6% fall in GDP.

As for China, the IMF revised its growth outlook higher for 2023, to 5.2% from 4.4% in the October forecast. Economic activity in China bounced back in January according to the NBS survey. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, from 47.0 in December. The 50-point mark separates contraction from growth. Economists anticipated a rise, but only to 49.7.

Non-manufacturing increased to 54.4, a substantial jump from 41.6 recorded in December. This marks an end to contraction that started in September 2022.

After 11 straight months of gains, Australia retail sales dropped by 3.9% in December month-on-month (MoM), the index's largest drop in more than two years. Economists had forecast a drop of 0.3%. November's result, driven by Black Friday sales, was revised up to a 1.7% increase, from an initially reported gain of 1.4%.

Retail sales in Japan rose 3.8% in December 2022 from a year earlier, exceeding forecasts for a 3% growth and following a 2.5% gain in November. This was also the tenth straight month of growth in retail trade.

Industrial production in Japan edged down 0.1 percent month-over-month in December 2022, compared with market forecasts of a 1.2 percent fall and after a 0.2 percent rise a month earlier, and consumer confidence rose to 31 in January, from 30.3 the previous month, beating expectations of 30.5.

In Germany, retail sales fell by 5.3% in December MoM, versus a consensus of a 0.2% rise. Later this morning at 08.55, Germany's unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.5%. And at 1pm, we await consumer price index for the month of January. Forecasts are for a 9.2% rise year-on-year (YoY). France’s economy grew 0.1% in Q4 quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) versus expectations of 0%.

At 10am, the eurozone Q4 GDP growth rate is forecast to contract by 0.1% QoQ.

Over in the US, S&P/Case Shiller home price is expected to increase by 6.8% in November YoY. Chicago PMI is forecast to rise to 45.1 in January, from 44.9 the previous month. And CB consumer confidence is expected to rise to 109 in January from 108.4 in December.

Forex

The US dollar is set for a fourth straight monthly loss in January and it's down to central banks expectations. EUR/USD is up 1.3% this month, and near a nine-month peak. The market expects rates hikes to slow in the US, while there is a longer way to go the the eurozone.

The Japanese yen is poised for a third monthly gain against the greenback as markets anticipate shifts in monetary policy.

Earnings

Elsewhere on the equity market, Pets at Home raised its full-year (FY) pretax profit guidance after record Q3 consumer revenues. The group says that robust trading momentum has continued into Q4, and with eight weeks of the year left to trade, it expects FY23 profit before tax towards the upper end of the current consensus range of £126-136 million, ahead of previous guidance of £131m.

UBS reported a 23% increase in fourth quarter profit, beating analyst estimates. The Swiss bank reported net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.7 billion, versus the $1.3bn expected by analysts surveyed by UBS. Full-year net profit reached $7.6bn, compared with the consensus estimate of $7.3bn.

US earnings season continues with reports from Pfizer, Exxon Mobil, General Motors, Caterpillar, Advanced Micro Devices, McDonald’s, Snap, and UPS among others.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 31 January

FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq consolidate after latest leg higher. EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall back while USD/JPY rallies, ahead of central bank decisions. And Brent, gold and aluminium prices drop ahead of central bank meetings.

Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 31 January 2023

 

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look ahead to 1/2/23: Fed; Caixin; EZ; CPI; GSK, META earnings

The dollar climbs ahead of the Fed. The US central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Ahead of that, watch out for USD/JPY and EUR/USD.

Traders will also have a flurry of economic data including China’s Caixin and inflation numbers from the eurozone.

Report cards from GSK (GSK), Vodafone (VOD), and Meta Platforms (META) provide further trading opportunities.

Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Tuesday 31 January 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: Europe expected up at the start ahead of the Fed rate decision

FX: Watching USD ahead of the US rate decision 7pmUK today and BoE & ECB tomorrow

Equities: Earnings – GSK VOD NOVN. Last night AMD up 5% on Q4. Last night SNAP down 12% on a poor outlook. Tonight META. INTC cuts salaries for snr mgrs incl CEO 

Commods: Gold slightly higher after the small gains yesterday. Oil up off 3wk lows 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: currency market little changed ahead of Fed rate decision tonight

Watching USD ahead of the US rate decision at 7pm UK and BoE and ECB tomorrow.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Wednesday 01 February 2023 

Indices overview

European indices opened higher on Wednesday, following the lead of US and APAC equity markets.

In China, Caixin factory activity continued to shrink in January, although more slowly, according to the Caixin survey. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 49.2 in January from 49 in December, staying below the 50 mark for a sixth straight month. This is a contrast with Official NBS data earlier this week, that showed factory actvity's return to growth.

Forex

There is very little movement on the currency market this morning. The dollar is broadly flat as investors await the conclusion of a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting. The US central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points later today, to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

Also expected today, Eurozone consumer price index is expected to rise 9% year-on-year (YoY).

In the US, ADP employment change is expected at 1.15pm. The private sector is expected to have created 170,000 jobs in January. ISM manufacturing PMI is forecast to fall to 48 in January, after 48.4 the previous month, and JOLTs job openings are expected to fall to 10.23 million in December.

Equities

On the equity market, Vodafone reported a slowdown in its group service revenue growth to 1.8% in the third quarter (Q3) from 2.5% in the second, driven by declines in continental Europe.

GlaxoSmithKline posted higher-than-expected Q4 profit and sales and forecast a 6% to 8% rise in sales for 2023 and a 10% to 12% increase in operating profit.

And Swiss pharma group Novartis expects that core operating income will grow in a "mid-single digit" percentage range in 2023, following stagnation last year.

In the US, Advanced Micro Devices shares rose in extended trading, after posting marginally better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth quarter and expressing confidence in the outlook for 2023. The chip maker earned 69 cents per share. Adjusted fourth-quarter revenue rose 16% to $5.60 billion.

AMD's data centre segment revenue grew 42% to $1.7 billion, offsetting a 51% drop in revenue of the client segment. AMD CEO Lisa Su said she was confident AMD would keep gaining market share this year, adding that the second half of the year would be stronger than the first.

The company forecasts a current quarter revenue of $5.3 billion, plus or minus $300 million. Analysts on average expected revenue of $5.48 billion, according to Refinitiv.

Snap shares tanked as much as 14% in extended trading last night, after the owner of the photo messaging app SnapChat warned that the headwinds the company faced over the past year would persist throughout the current quarter. Revenue for the fourth quarter ended December 31 was $1.3 billion, flat from the prior year and in line with analyst expectations.

Snap posted a net loss was $288 million, versus net income of $23 million the previous year. On an adjusted basis, it reported earnings of 14 cents per share, beating Wall Street estimates of 11 cents. In a letter to investors, Snap said it suffered from a weakening economy, and increased competition from other social media platforms, adding that current quarter revenue could decline by as much as 10%.

Tonight, after the US closing bell, Meta Platforms, the parent company of Facebook, is expected to post earnings of $2.26 per share, which would correspond to a 40% decline on Q4 2021. Revenue is likely to decline by 6% to $31.53bn. Meta lost roughly two-thirds of its value last year, leading the group to part with 13% of its workforce.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Charting the Markets: 1 February

FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow await US Fed decision. And gold jittery ahead of FOMC, as Brent crude and natural gas look at risk of further downside.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.

[MongiIG]

Look Ahead to 02/02/23: ECB, BoE; BT, SHEL, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN earnings

A day after the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to raise interest rates. Watch out for live coverage from IG’s Chris Beauchamp and Axel Rudolph.

Plus, tech, telco and oil earnings dominate, with reports from BT (BT), Shell (SHEL), Infineon (IFXGn), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN).

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK.

Today’s coverage:

Indices: After gains on Wall St, where techs outperformed, and in Asia overnight, Europe expected to open higher. Last night the Dax climbed to a new 50wk high

FX: USD loses ground after Fed… now comes the BoE and ECB rate decisions 

Equities: META last night up 25% after cost cuts & share buyback. Earnings this morning SHEL BT DBK. This evening AAPL AMZN GOOG F. BP rises oil exposure away from renewables 

Commods: Gold spiked to a new higher high last night after the Fed sent the USD down.  Oil down heavily at new 3wk lows 

 

 

 

 

[MongiIG]

Early Morning Call: dollar falls on Fed slowing inflation comments, boosts gold, base metals

Gold spiked to a new higher high while USD slowed after Fed meeting last night.

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Thursday 02 February 2023 

Central banks

The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, as expected, to between 4.5%-4.75%.

Early data shows that the US central bank's aggressive efforts to combat inflation are bearing fruit, but the US central bank continued to promise "ongoing increases" in borrowing costs as part of its still unresolved battle against inflation which it says has eased somewhat but remains elevated.

Fed chair, Jerome Powell, said that the markets should not expect a rate cut in 2023. The US dollar fell on the announcement, sending US indices higher, and gold to a fresh nine and-a-half-month high.

At lunchtime, the Bank of England (BoE) will unveil its decision on rates. With inflation at 10.5% in December, higher than in the US and the eurozone, with wages excluding bonuses rising at their fastest rate since records began in 2001, expectations are for a 10th consecutive rise by half a percentage point to 4%.

At its last meeting in December, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for a 50 basis point hike to 3.5%. But the vote was split three ways. Two members voted to end the rate rises, while one backed a larger three-quarter point move.

Also today, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely seen hiking by another 50 basis points to 3%, as ECB members made sure in the last couple of weeks to reiterate that they were very much in agreement with Christine Lagarde's scenario of another significant hike.

In the US, initial jobless claims will be released at 1.30pm. Economists forecast 200,000 new claimants. Yesterday, the ADP survey revealed that 106,000 jobs had been created in the US private sector last month. Even though the December number was upwardly revised by 18,000, it remains much lower that the expectations of 178,000 job creations.

As for tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls, economists anticipate 185,000 job creations in January, following 223,000 in December. The unemployment rate should rise one notch to 3.6%, and average hourly earnings should rise by 0.3% month-on-month (MoM), 4.3% year-on-year (YoY).

Equities

Elsewhere on equity markets, BT confirmed its full-year (FY) outlook despite the pressure of high energy costs and other inflationary headwinds. It reported a 3% dip in third quarter (Q3) adjusted revenue, just below market expectations. Pretax profit fell 15%.

Shell's annual earnings reached $39.9 billion, doubling from a year earlier and far exceeding the previous record of $31 billion in 2008. Shell also announced a new $4 billion share buyback programme over the next three months and said capital expenditure will be between $23bn and $27bn in 2023.

Deutsche Bank's fourth quarter (Q4) profit exceeded expectations. Net profit attributable to shareholders was €1.803 billion. That compares with a profit of €145 million a year earlier, and is better than analyst expectations for a profit of around €951 million.

In the US, Meta jumped 25% on the IG platform last night. Net income for the fourth quarter fell to $1.76 per share, much lower than the $2.26 expected by analysts. The decline was largely due to a $4.2 billion charge related to layoffs, and office closures. Revenue reached $32.17bn.

Shares rose after CEO Mark Zuckerberg described 2023 as the "Year of Efficiency" and updated the market on a series of cost cutting measures, like its plans for lower data-centre construction expenses this year. In total Meta Platforms will cut costs in 2023 by $5 billion to a range of $89 billion to $95 billion. The group also announced a new $40 billion share buyback programme.

Tonight, after the bell, Apple is forecast to post earnings of $1.94 per share. Revenue is expected at $121.88bn which would be the first decline since Q1 2019. Apple failed to supply the market with enough iPhones during the period leading to Christmas, as its primary Chinese factory was shut for weeks during Covid lockdowns.

Amazon is expected to post earnings of 17 cents per share on revenue of $145.64bn, up about 5.8% YoY. Investors will be attentive to Amazon Web Services' performance as this segment of the business has been taking an increasing share of revenue over the years. In Q3, AWS revenue growth was 27.5% YoY.

Outside the tech sector, analysts expect Ford to publish earnings of 62 cents per share, on revenue of $41.87bn. Investors are eagerly awaiting Ford’s earnings guidance.

On Tuesday, General Motors forecast adjusted earnings per share for the full-year 2023 of between $6 and $7. If still above Wall Street projections, it represents a decline from 2022 profit. According to Refinitiv estimates Ford's 2023 EPS is expected to fall by nearly 16%.

Commodities

Oil prices fell yesterday after the EIA confirmed the oil stock rise announced earlier this week by the API. US crude inventories climbed 4.1 million barrels last week.

Gasoline stocks rose by 2.6 million barrels and distillate stockpiles rose by 2.3 million barrels.

 

This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.