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eurusd happily ranging while awaiting a Draghi sensation but the chart is setting good levels to bear in mind. The problem with pressers is that price can reverse on each sentence and this one usually goes on for 3/4 of an hour. Usually worth holding off til some kind of consensus is reached.

 

 

EURUSD(£)H1.pngEURUSD(£)M5.png 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Slightly off topic but... I never get the logic of MA's or EMA's (admitidly I've never really looked into it much). But why pick arbitry 'x' numbers of days.

 

Why 7 or 21 for example, when the candles will only print on actual market open trading days, so why not 5 or 15 for the '1 week and 3 weeks worth'? Why three weeks anyway, and now 4?

 

Why 100 and 200 days, rather than 252 which is the number of trading days in a year (generally)?

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Hi ,  good question.  MA's are the basis of nearly all indicators you will see on any drop down list, sure they may have been through some convoluted math but the origin of most is the humble MA.

 

MA's are obviously a lagging indicator as most are but they do provide historic and up to the tick information on trend direction, and on momentum by the increasing or decreasing degree of angle of slope. They are often also used as dynamic support lines.

 

Which one to choose is the key question, the answer is to experiment to find a best fit for whatever time frame you are looking at and which market you are trading. As with any indicator you are trying to figure what the market movers are using (and they will be using them) so zoom out and see which ones are being used for support in a trend. Common favourites are 20, 50, 100, 200. SMA's tend to be used by the older traders on established markets such as stocks, EMA's tend to be used by younger traders on newer markets such as FX and crypto. 

 

This is not an exhaustive appraisal of MA's but just thoughts off the top of my head based on my own experience. No indicator will determine the future but if enough large players are using one they will become a sort of 'self fulfilling prophesy'. 

 

So again, the key is to zoom out and see if one is relevant, if not move on and look for some thing else.

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A reversal pattern here would be in keeping with the monthly chart where price has run into trendline resistance. Will probably depend on how the US Dollar scenario plays out which is currently sitting just 100 points below major resistance having looked to have bottomed out over the last 7 weeks.

 

EURUSD(£)Monthly.pngUS Dollar Basket_20180313_08.59.png

 

 

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Interesting break down out of range on the 1 hour chart yesterday, currently retesting the range bottom and trying to decided which why to go. FOMC decision this evening with high prediction of a rate rise so we may see euro test lower in anticipation.

 

 

EURUSD(£)H1.png 

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