Technical Analysis 101

[Guest oilfxpro]

Trader1707

 

I just applied Warren Buffet's thinking and beliefs to Dax and Dow indices , it works  I just go for value.

 

The problem is these guys using mainly technical analysis, on it's own, without learning market behaviors and lack of understanding of "how to profit from trading " , are ending up on in the 95 % club.95% are losing , using technical analysis alone , then there is a problem with the Gurus  who teach.

 

http://besttradingforums.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/95-of-traders-lose-below-confirms-this.html 

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

If  marketing timing is difficult , the application of the underlying technical analysis is redundant.

 

Why technical analysis is shunned by professionals http://www.followingthetrend.com/2014/05/why-technical-analysis-is-shunned-by-professionals/

 

Technical analysis is about market timing, it is difficult to time the markets.

Why market timing doesn't work

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-market-timing-doesnt-work-2013-10-23

 

one in 100 investors will be successful using timing.

Price action relies on market timing , both technical analysis and price action require market timing to work.Both don't work and make money because it is difficult to time the entries and exits.

4 Reasons Why Market Timing Fails as a Money Maker

 

https://jarredbunch.com/investing/4-reasons-market-timing-fails-money-maker/

 

If you can't time the markets on longer term investing, it is certainly more difficult in the short term trading .We are being taught by educators who make money from selling education.

[Guest Trader_1707]

There is another upstanding method for analysing the market - it's the dollar basket chart - US Dollar Index. 

Though the most strong influence this 'basket" makes on EUR/USD as it has the biggest weight in the total proportion between major US pairs, but i think it's possible to apply the chart of dollar basket to other partials: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD and so on. So - called another variant of technical analysis.

[Caseynotes]

There is nothing in what you say or in your links that qualifies the statement 'If  marketing timing is difficult , the application of the underlying technical analysis is redundant'.

 

Neither linked articles on market timing mention technical analysis at all and you also include a link to a piece on technical analysis that doesn't mention market timing.

 

The two things are different concepts and it is difficult to see how this even fits in this thread.

 

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

Most gurus use technical analysis in hindsight after the event, could have would have profits and trades supposedly taken or possible.

 

Here is one showing zero sum game!

 

[Caseynotes]

Most 'people' use technical analysis to actually trade, gurus don't come into it. There are some very good educators on the principles of  TA and that has nothing to do with hindsight or even trading.

[Guest oilfxpro]

The only way to test if all this works is for you to call out trades in advance, like I do and prove that with  live trades and advance calls .

 

I challenge you to post 20 trades in advance, using technical analysis  and prove to us it makes money.

 

I am sure you will not take this challenge, I see a lot of sites singing technical analysis,  but all this singing about technical analysis is of  no benefit to a trader, unless he can use it to make money.

 

An advance call example is 

 

Buy ftse 7605, stop loss 7580, date 27/12/2017 

 

All this should be unedited posts.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Hi , That's right, the pairs that make up the dollar basket though they carry different weighting gives good insight into USD strength and therefore may indicate market direction for dollar pairs not only in but also outside the basket.

[Caseynotes]

Good grief oilfxpro, haven't we been through this before, discretionary traders usually can't post in advance and lets not forget your own record is less than successful and opaque,

 

Lets see, starts the 'set in stone' options dow and dax system in early 2016 but soon trails off and then goes dark.

Comes back with mark 2 (long only).

Then mark 3 (off support long only).

Then Mark 4 (not daily but weekly).

 

Can't wait for Mark 5.

[Guest oilfxpro]

Casey 

 

I am baiting you "to prove you can make money" using technical analysis.

 

Only 20 trades to be called in advance, in a separate thread.

 

Trading industry provides quite luring opportunities to earn risk-free, by teaching new traders. As far as there are wannabe traders who can afford education. But this education goes to the level of qualification of mentor .If you can prove it works, then we will all sign up and could all offer you our million dollar accounts to call signals on.Fink 1000 subscribers @ £100 per month = £100,000 a month  earn risk-free.

 

 

Yachts mansions Porsche

 

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

What's to prove? I've already seen your 'infallible' system fail over a year ago and this year has been no different. I am happy with what I already know.

 

The reason you must constantly adjust your 'set in stone' system is because it can only ever work in very specific market conditions as I have pointed out before. If you applied a bit of basic technical analysis you would see clearly whether or not those specific market conditions were actually present instead of blindly taking options on a daily basis, that was always going to fail and so it's no wonder that after a short spell you stopped posting your trades, again.

 

So I look forward to the Mark 5 version and it's inevitable failure as you continue to reject and deny the very thing that thing that would help. 

[Guest oilfxpro]

The reason you must constantly adjust your 'set in stone' system is because it can only ever work in very specific market conditions

 

 

It means to any reader, it fails frequently.

 

[Guest oilfxpro]

All these forex gurus who made live calls have disappeared, so I know that t/a has it's flaws.

 

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/75186-forex-trading-live-calls-set-ups.html#post922476

 

[Caseynotes]

Do you realise these last two posts don't actually make any sense? But it comes as no surprise that you are taking fx advice from a cafe manager you found on yet another poor forum site though, it explains a lot. Anyone who believes the markets are 'totally random' does not understand how an auction works.

[Guest oilfxpro]

I am learning from Greg Secker

 

[Situation]

Is greg secker any good?

[Caseynotes]

I think you have been suckered by trollboy. Instead learn basic technical analysis, devise a basic strategy, record the findings over  50 trades on demo and you will then see if it has a chance of working live. Don't listen to types who pump 'proven profitable' systems like trollboy.

[Guest Trader_1707]

hi ,  !

have  a look at the FTSE daily chart - if to use the Momentum indicator, it's seen strong divergence and  the price will go down for a several days. So the technical analyses works rather good. 

[Guest paxton64]

If you are trading the FTSE then you do need to keep an eye on cable too! (GBP/USD).  This has a strong correlation, in general (but not always the case)  The FTSE trades in the opposite direction to cable and can be a good lead indicator for the FTSE.

[Guest oilfxpro]

It is likely that ftse may correct, it becomes more expensive for foreign investors, if £ is stronger.

That is really not technical analysis. It is fundamental analysis.Technical analysis alone is unreliable.It is only the road map to the trading gold.

 

We don't know whether to place a short on ftse, in case gbp weakened.If all other indices are  still bullish,shorting ftse can be dangerous.

 

 

[Guest Trader_1707]

That's correct concerning correlation of FTSE and GBP, but what about the momentum divirgence? 

[Guest oilfxpro]

I don't use technical analysis.I looked at correlation on DOW  , S and P , Nadaq and DAX.It is more relevant.

 

More on technical analysis below 

 

Technical analysts suffer from psychological biases, in processing technical analysis information.

 

http://vantharp.com/consulting/vkt_interview.htm

 

Van Tharp" At the most basic level, people must trade by processing information. Unfortunately, we're not very efficient information processors. We have a lot of biases which enter into trading decisions. I've documented 25 of them. However, I think most of those biases can be summarized by realizing that trading/investing are very simple processes and we human beings try to make it into something much more complex. Those biases are all about adding complexity to the world.".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest Trader_1707]

I think this situation must be observed during a time. Because this divergence must work out. Of course I am not the follower of technical analysis, but on my practice momentum divergence works out soon or later.

[Guest paxton64]

In the main I find people try and read into things far too much, the market will do what the market does and the market makers have the dabble too!  In my experience if personally find using Heikin-Ashi provides over 75% confidence in direction and serves me very well.  No other indicators other than those mentioned previously are used.

[Guest oilfxpro]

Casey wrote

There is nothing in what you say or in your links that qualifies the statement 'If  marketing timing is difficult , the application of the underlying technical analysis is redundant'.

 

Neither linked articles on market timing mention technical analysis at all and you also include a link to a piece on technical analysis that doesn't mention market timing.

 

The two things are different concepts and it is difficult to see how this even fits in this thread.

 

If market timing was easy, your technical analysis system, using market structure and wyckoff etc,  would allow you to enter on 3 moving averages, as a result you would get  80 % plus success rate.If you could get a 80 % hit rate you would be very very wealthy.

 

My studies show that market timing is not easy, otherwise I would be doing it.

[Caseynotes]

'Market Timing' is a theoretic concept not related to technical Analysis.

[Guest oilfxpro]

There are plenty of sites sing about technical analysis.I only like analysis that I can use to time the entry in the  trade .If I can't time the t/a entry what good is it?

[Caseynotes]

All TA offers trade entries, a system is not analysis, it is a bot which will always fail in adverse market conditions that where designed for that bot.

[Guest oilfxpro]

So you apply the right system for the conditions, knowing the market conditions.Simple easy!

[Caseynotes]

There is no single system to cope with all changing market conditions, so either have a range of systems or simply wait for the market conditions to change to suit the system you are using, or look for a chart that the system will suit. When the dax started ranging that no longer suited your system, you were right to take a look at the ftse instead.