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I say it again, just short bitcoin, manage your fund well, do not get margin call, you well be rich

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Bitcoin did put in a strong 8 am bar to pass yesterday's high but has been lifeless since.

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 Bitcoin,   after failing to reach the "Red Zone",   Price continues to push up.  The move through the "Blue zone" shows strength     Capture b1.PNGCapture b2.PNG

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Did you bid at all or miss because it didn’t get to that red zone? :( bad luck if you didn’t get a fill elle as it’s been a pretty solid reversal :(

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 the daily chart showing a fairly substantial rejection at around 9500 with a reversal candle yesterday, be interesting to see if it can get any follow through.

 

BTCUSD(£)Daily.png 

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Looking to the future can only be about possibilities and maybe probabilities but if playing a range or an asymmetric range why wait for the move to be half over. Already a bit late for that play but useful to know the triangle is significant.

 

There is also the possibility of Ron William's view that if the triangle bottom breaks then the target is 3000. (Taken from the vid linked in the latest post on TA and market cycles in the TA tread).

 

mc4.PNG

 

 

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, I think on any bad news (regulatory or otherwise) could see Bitcoin go down to high $6000 area for sure. Positive news especially on the regulatory front could see Bitcoin try and clear $10000.

 

Bitcoin seems to be 'treading' price action to keep within a particular range until the direction of travel becomes more clear.

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I don’t get it. So BTC is on the support line in black, well below the 200 day MA, below the mean, has a divergence of 30...

 

Don’t all these indicate a move UP? Why the 3k target?

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Ah, you need to watch the whole video (only 20 min) as he uses this chart to demonstrate how to put all the component parts of TA and market cycles he discusses together for the big picture.

 

So IF support breaks, price is below the 200 day MA, there would also be a break of the first standard deviation and the market cycle shows that within the bearish move since the start of the year there are distinct bearish/bullish phases. From the chart the bearish phases are roughly twice as long as the bullish and the current bearish phase looks like it has some way to go.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Actualy just wanted that video again. It’s really good. I’ve never really been one for TA as a whole and just running the whole strategy on it, more use as a potential entry point and where to slightly trim positions going into and out of a trade.

 

But this seems different. I like the explanation about the 20 / 50 / 200 MA and never really thought about it in the way of it representing 4 weeks worth of trading days, a quarter, almost a years worth (there are about 220 trading days in a year right?).

 

I think this is what I need more of to get behind TA. The WHY each indicator should work, rather than the HOW to use. How must be intuitive once people know the why…

 

Right?

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I think so too which is why I post links to articles that explain how different indicators work, knowing that gives a better understanding of their possibilities and limitations. Every indicator has it's limitations so each needs to be applied appropriately.

 

In the beginning most assume an indicator will just generate signals but that is exactly what they can't do. An indicator can shine a light on a particular aspect of a market and help make an informed decision as to future probabilities.

Most are based on OHLC of a number of time period bars or candles, the candles are the foot prints on the chart of the market movers so only candles generate signals.

 

The best way for us to make money is to spot a move by the market movers early on and get in quick, TA and indicators are there to give forewarning and indicate where to look for that signal. 

 

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators

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Bitcoin took another plunge yesterday to arrive at the previously mentioned 6405. Current retracement looks capped by prior support now resistance around 6610.

 

BTCUSD(£)H1.pngBTCUSD(£)Daily.png

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, Bitcoin is making lower highs and lower lows at the moment which for me is a short all day long with a nice dose of leverage.

 

 

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  the stepwise pattern of the decent is interesting and hints at deliberate, systematic repositioning. 

 

For general amusement I'll add a link to John Ward's blog from Monday where he talks about the number of people controlling bitcoin ~ ' the 1600 bitcoin wiseguys'.

 

https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2018/06/11/crash2-conflicting-signals-in-the-media-but-growing-certainty-in-the-real-world/

 

 

BTCUSD(£)H1.png

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    • Hi everyone,  so, those of you following my FTSE - Daily Trades thread may know, I'm looking for new strategies to tackle the market. Was starting to think about this today and made a few thoughts. First one I came up with in the process is the following and utilises 'Andrew's Pitchfork' a rather odd name for a simple principle.   Thought Process I was going back to the basics and starting to think about the fundamentals of trading: Buy low and sell high. Or go short high, and buy back low later. So the key of my new strategy has to somewhat depended on these fundamental trading principles. Next I was thinking, looking at a chart, in what region can the price considered to be "low" and in what region would I consider it to be "high". I was looking at a 5min chart and looking at the whole day. I was drawing one line at the low of day, one line at the high of day, those are obviously the extremes where everyone can agree prices are low / high. Then I draw a line right in the middle between the two, where the price is neither high nor low. Then I draw a line at 25% and one at 75% and said, if the price is between the low of day (0%) and 25%, I consider the price to be low. If the price is between 75% and high of day (100%) I consider the price to be high. In between (25%-75%), it's neither high nor low. If I'd somehow manage to always buy in the low range and sell in the high range (or go short vice versa), then this could be a decent strategy. The next problem I was facing is, I've done this analysis on the previous day, where we know high and low of day. How can this strategy work out for future price movements, where high and low of day are unknown. Andrew's Pitchfork This is where the Pitchfork comes in. The assumption I'm making is that if I extrapolate the 4 required levels (low of day, high of day, 25% and 75%) from the previous day to the following day, the strategy still works. This is because more often than not, prices move up and down around a certain level, without breaking away from it and moving onto the next level. (This obviously has to be proven with data - more to that later) The way the pitchfork works is exactly how the 4 required levels are drawn up. The pitchfork is defined over 3 points: High, Low and Mid-point. It then draws 5 levels on the chart: High (100%), 75%, Mid (50%), 25%, Low (0%) So how does it work The way I imagine it to work is the following: 1) Identify previous day's high and low 2) Draw the pitchfork in the chart with aligning its high and lows on the daily high and low. The mid point is exactly in the middle of daily high and low. This draws a horizontal pitchfork in the chart. 3) When the price of the asset falls below 25%, place a buy stop order at the 25% level. Once the price rises again and breaks through that level, the order gets executed. (vice versa with shorting above the 75% level) 4) Stop Loss is right below (size of the spread) the low of the pitchfork. Target is somewhere above 50%-75%. You have at least a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Need to calculate target level by asset based on historic patterns. Does it work? Don't know yet. So far I've manually painted a few of those pitchforks in the chart for the past couple of days on FTSE100, NASDAQ, CL and NG and it seems it works more often than it doesn't. Cases where it clearly doesn't work is when there's a strong move to either direction, aka price breaks-out and moves to a different level than it was the day before. Interestingly when this happens, the strategy wouldn't necessarily always result in a loss, but sometimes the entry conditions would never be triggered in the first place. E.g. if we start the day already in the high region (above 75%) and then never fall below it - no order triggered on that day. On the negative side, huge breakout opportunities are missed with this strategy, so worth looking into a complementary strategy which works specifically for break-outs. Next steps Next, I'm trying to backtest the strategy. Will need to pull a whole lot of data and analyse. Hope to have that done over the weekend. Will update the thread accordingly. Data I'm trying to get: Win ratio, Where's the optimum take profit level, Time of day where this usually plays out (my idea is to hook this in with the ATR analysis I've done and trade this pattern at times of high ATR, aka FTSE, DAX in the morning, NASDAQ, NG, CL in the afternoon)  First success First successful example trade taken this afternoon on CL. You see nicely how the pitchfork is drawn on the chart and is derived by the high and low of the previous day. At 14.30 today the price dipped below the 25% level. I set the buy stop order at the 25% level, which got triggered at 14.35. The price afterwards makes a sweep move up to the 50% level, where my limit sell order gets triggered at 15.15. It would've been possible to play it up until the 75% level, but wanted to be safe, without having the data yet. Could've been luck - who knows.   What do you think of this approach?        
    • just to add to bigdeal's reply SBs can be either cash/daily funded bet or futures/forward which have a separate chart accessed from the dropdown box next to the chart title. for cash/dfb there is no expiry but you paid an overnight interest fee, this charge does not apply to futures/forwards which have a larger spread instead. see pic.
    • https://www.home.saxo/insights/content-hub/articles/2019/10/17/emerging-market-stocks-just-break-out-of-a-20-month-downtrend
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