Commodities

[Caseynotes]

Commodities having a strong day especially base metals. Nickel up 10%, Aluminium 5%, Copper 3%.

 

 

[Caseynotes]

.  The strong rise in commodities yesterday (see previous post) seems linked to PBOC reducing RRR (amount banks must hold in reserve) and helped lift  AUS200 over chart resistance.

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-rrr-cuts/china-central-bank-announces-surprise-cut-in-bank-reserve-requirements-idUKKBN1HO2JB

 

[Guest Zero]

I agree 

 

I saw that RRR news yesterday and wondered why it didn't lift our market (Chinese market stronger) - it must have happened after we closed (explaining our strength overnight - that's Wednesday night).  

Can't find where I saw it.  Will have to investigate.

[Caseynotes]

Yes it took the commodities market a little time to take off but was well underway yesterday and AUS200 was rising at the same time to clear the resistance before this last 4 hour bar pullback.

 

I seem to have awarded you with a solutions tag while trying to hit the reply button, never mind.

 

[Guest Zero]

Well, I solved the mystery of my lost article: back on the 17th April so the tick can be for that...

 

The FX market at the time apparently didn't react much. Funny that Trump accused China of devaluing their currency, then they just go right ahead and devalue.  They don't seem to care...

 

The new RRR comes in April 25th, but of course the markets are going to move before that.  

[JamesIG]

[Caseynotes]

"Since the commodities supercycle began unwinding 10 years ago, many investors have been waiting for the right conditions to trigger mean reversion and lift prices."

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/04/24/commodities-are-flashing-a-once-in-a-generation-buy-signal/#72d646787590

 

 

[CyclingTrader]

Some interesting views expressed about the current state of the uranium and copper markets in this podcast, reiterates the below that there is a serious underpricing of commodities as compared to the potential demand over the coming years and the dearth of producers in the case of uruanium or large scale mines which can be easily commercialised in the case of copper.

 

https://www.macrovoices.com/396-marin-katusa-copper-uranium-the-ev-revolution