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Bitcoin longer term - maybe 500MA?


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I've been reading a few posts on this and thought I may as well as my two cents rather than just tacking on to other peoples opinions and statements. Put simply I hope to lay out a couple of simple reasons why I think bitcoin and crypto will go up in the longer term time frame. This has nothing to do with 'believing in' the asset, more that it's just worth having a position when you think of the underlying market plumbing.

Bitcoin will go up for the following reasons.

  • It is a truly truly truly inelastic asset. When gold goes up, people start producing more. When oil tanks, people don't pump as much. Even housing and infrastructure will be able to scale up or down depending on demand. Crypto however has a fixed amount being created which is mathematically restrained and can't be altered. When demand shifts people will gobble up the inelastic asset and supply demand curves will react accordingly.
  • Liquidity is thin. Honestly - don't just take my word for it - have a look at the global volumes. All it takes is a $100,000 dollars odd and you can move the price of some of these assets a hundred dollars or so. Thin liquidity means that prices can move very quickly either way. At the moment we are in a downward trend, but as soon as that turns and people jump on the bandwagon again ... well, we've seen it happen before.
  • Hold. Become rich. Simple. EVERYONE knows about a mate, or a mate of a mate, or at the very least an article somewhere talking about buying crypto, holding onto it, and becoming rich. That's the way things are. It's happened over the last ten years and now the world has it in it's psyche that it's fact. Those who hold wont sell, whilst those on the sidelines are just waiting to get in.
  • Bitcoin halving event in 2020. Over the last two halving events BTC prices have doubled. Again, this is all we have to go on, but people think that it's happened in the past so it's sure to happen in the future. Wait for it ... we'll see parabolic once more.
  • ETF city. People want it. It's coming. It's just a matter of time.

so in my opinion even if you hate it, the above plumbing descriptions support a move upwards. I also notice that we've been bumping off the 500 day moving average and we've very close to the 6000 USD level which has significant historical support. We possibly will break, but we will certainly bounce at some point.

Bitcoin_20180808_16_49.png.6795fa4e25270281f5810e53f8ea108e.png

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