Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  

Bitcoin longer term - maybe 500MA?

Recommended Posts

I've been reading a few posts on this and thought I may as well as my two cents rather than just tacking on to other peoples opinions and statements. Put simply I hope to lay out a couple of simple reasons why I think bitcoin and crypto will go up in the longer term time frame. This has nothing to do with 'believing in' the asset, more that it's just worth having a position when you think of the underlying market plumbing.

Bitcoin will go up for the following reasons.

  • It is a truly truly truly inelastic asset. When gold goes up, people start producing more. When oil tanks, people don't pump as much. Even housing and infrastructure will be able to scale up or down depending on demand. Crypto however has a fixed amount being created which is mathematically restrained and can't be altered. When demand shifts people will gobble up the inelastic asset and supply demand curves will react accordingly.
  • Liquidity is thin. Honestly - don't just take my word for it - have a look at the global volumes. All it takes is a $100,000 dollars odd and you can move the price of some of these assets a hundred dollars or so. Thin liquidity means that prices can move very quickly either way. At the moment we are in a downward trend, but as soon as that turns and people jump on the bandwagon again ... well, we've seen it happen before.
  • Hold. Become rich. Simple. EVERYONE knows about a mate, or a mate of a mate, or at the very least an article somewhere talking about buying crypto, holding onto it, and becoming rich. That's the way things are. It's happened over the last ten years and now the world has it in it's psyche that it's fact. Those who hold wont sell, whilst those on the sidelines are just waiting to get in.
  • Bitcoin halving event in 2020. Over the last two halving events BTC prices have doubled. Again, this is all we have to go on, but people think that it's happened in the past so it's sure to happen in the future. Wait for it ... we'll see parabolic once more.
  • ETF city. People want it. It's coming. It's just a matter of time.

so in my opinion even if you hate it, the above plumbing descriptions support a move upwards. I also notice that we've been bumping off the 500 day moving average and we've very close to the 6000 USD level which has significant historical support. We possibly will break, but we will certainly bounce at some point.

Bitcoin_20180808_16_49.png.6795fa4e25270281f5810e53f8ea108e.png

  • Great! 2
  • Thought provoking 1

Share this post


Link to post

Interesting thoughts. Nice to read somethingtotally divorced from the asset but looking at market structure. 

Fresssh. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post

heyyy - would you look at that :) - I got put in the handpicked section on that front page. Any comments welcome and would love someone who doesn't agree! always good to have your trade thoughts pushed and looking for holes.

  • Great! 1

Share this post


Link to post

Congrats, just need IG to promote it on twitter now to their 24,000 follows and just watch the viewer figure leap up 300 odd within a few minutes. 

Share this post


Link to post
10 minutes ago, Caseynotes said:

Congrats, just need IG to promote it on twitter now to their 24,000 follows and just watch the viewer figure leap up 300 odd within a few minutes. 

Hey - that's not a bad idea ;)

Share this post


Link to post

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Topics
      7,879
    • Total Posts
      41,766
    • Total Members
      52,013
    Newest Member
    trader12341
    Joined 15/12/19 04:38
  • Posts

    • I think those swings were tradeable with a reduced position size on the Nikkei which tends to respect weekly pivots during European and American trading hours.
    • @dmedin, I don't know the answer but there may be others on the IG Community that are more knowledgable than me or even use EWT both successfully and are hugely profitable applying it. They may be aware of certain assets where the probabilities of using EWT are in their favour due to confirmed historical evidence. There may well be evidence that certain assets adhere to EWT more than others on a historical basis. Of course that does not guarantee that the assets will do so in the future but it just increases the odds and the likelihood of it occurring again.  Just because I don't have the knowledge or evidence does not mean such assets do not exist where the application of EWT would be greatly increase your chances of successful and profitable trades. I personally do not use or apply EWT to my trading and it has not hindered me. I would be interested in knowing which assets adhere to EWT more than others and what the percentages are. For example are there any assets which adhere to EWT historically over 70%? Let us put Natural Gas to one side for the moment as I personally think due to the extreme volatility you would have to be a supreme EWT technician to be able to consistently make profitable trades on Natural Gas using EWT. If you put NG to one side then are there any other assets which say adhere to EWT historically from say 50% - 70% of the time? I do not know the answer but if anyone does know then it would be very interesting and helpful to the IG Community, especially for those who are genuinely interested in EWT and applying it to their trading.  Also for those assets which say do adhere to EWT over 50% of the time how does a trader know that it will so on the next trend, next move up or down, etc? How does one establish apart from a failed trade after the event on whether the asset is going to adhere to EWT?
    • S&P has tested that trend line and is now blasting into outer space.  🥳
×
×