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hurricane florence

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I guess this is a two part question

  1. is it ethical to discuss and talk about trading opportunities on the back of what could potentially be a destructive weather pattern?
  2. if you don't think its an issue ... what is your strategy? I put this in commodities because I see this are more a soft commods Q.

I don't know how I feel about this one. I feel almost bad typing it - but should I?

looking for open discussion on this one and very open to moral chat about it all. looking to be convinced either way.

Edited by cryptotrader

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Hmmm, good question @cryptotrader,  I'll just post mine now.

Maybe just look at the markets and take your que from the big boys.

'Terrorist Attack'  SELL SELL SELL. Unless you are happy to sit and hold an increasing loss, out of respect.

Traders don't make the good news or the bad, traders can only react whether that is to capitalise or protect the only thing they have, their assets.

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@cryptotrader / @PandaFace

For me if there is a trend then I am interested. Whether that be because of political unrest, war propaganda and rhetoric, extreme weather conditions (El-Nino) or whatever. 

Have a look at my historical posts on Orange Juice during the Florida Hurricane Irma and the posts should answer most of your questions. I tend to agree with @Caseynotes post. 

For me the most important question is are you doing anything illegal trading soft commodities should their prices be affected by extreme weather conditions? For me the answer is no. In terms of morals and ethics I will leave that for others to discuss. I am interested in trading trends regardless of asset class though I tend to stick to commodities and cryptos with the odd shares. If I have not identified a trend then I am more than happy to patiently wait until I do identify a suitable trend to trade. Sometimes doing nothing is the right option. 

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Guest Bobby Axelrod

This whole concept about this is very similar to what axe cap was dealing with in the series billions. good show and its a hard one to think about. I often think what people say and think are different and this is one of those times. is there anything bad in trading on news? not so much I don't think but where does that end? trading over 9/11 for example? its an interesting one.

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I think I have to be inclined to agree with you all on this one. If the news is there you can either trade it or not, but either way doesn't actually matter to the events directly or indirectly.

If you see an opportunity you have to take it and I don't see anything 'wrong' or immoral about taking the trade. I think it really depends on the frame of mind (for me personally anyway) sort of like ... imagine the storm is bad and you're making your trade decisions, you don't want to be thinking "I hope this is even MORE catastrophic to really hit the market" but rather you just trade on 'it is what it is - lets roll with it and get some trades on'.

nice insight thanks all.

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Quite right @cryptotrader,  "If you see an opportunity"  ... it's your job to take it, and there will be plenty enough that you don't see. 

The other point you site is interesting as it is very like being emotionally attached or wedded to a trade which usually doesn't work out well either. Total emotional detachment is the optimum position when you have no control over events. 

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@cryptotrader, normally when the media starts reporting that a hurricane will be arriving shortly (within weeks) the speculative money starts flowing in (early). This is even before the hurricane has even hit its forecasted target. This was evidenced by the price action of Orange Juice futures when the media were reporting on Hurricane Irma.

From my experience once the hurricane has hit its intended target and the devastation is known you may see further upside if the damage is worse than predicted. However, after this point the selling begins and profits are taken so there is always a healthy correction / drop.

When the damage is not as bad as expected and the predictions are way out then the selling more or less starts as soon as this is known which is pretty quick nowadays.

Edited by TrendFollower

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