Is now the time to get into Emerging Markets?

[trade247]

The whole trump trade war has been crazy, and whilst there was a bit of vol around the announcements, it seems only now are we seeing all these linked companies and indices react and sell off a little. EM have been absolutely hammered and there is a huge huge disparity between the EM and rest of the world. This could means it's an opportunity to load up on some broad based EM ETF's...

reading an article in the FT today it was saying the price to book ratio on EM's is discounted by 36% to other developed countries (which is pretty evident if you look at some of those charts!). The primary issue for me now is deciding if this is the best place to put a few grand which I have in the bank. For example, maybe 2 to 5 which may do better to sit in some sort of low cost ETF with all the div reinvestment malarkey as well.

so is the trade war likely to be a kick off to global recession... or are we good for a bit of a rally over the next 12 months. I'm looking for signs to get in and "fill my boots" as the article says, but something is holding me back.

would be interested to hear thoughts as I can't quite make up my mind.

[Mercury]

@cryptotraderIf there is to be a major global market meltdown, which maybe we have already seen the beginning of, EMs with get absolutely hammered because they are considered more risky.  There is a reason they are discounted.  I'd wait a while and see how the next few months play out.  To be completely transparent my bias is for a major crash across the board and I am all in cash, only trading on my SB accounts.  The only investment worth considering, in my view, is Gold, but be careful you do so in physical gold not ETF as these are typically not 100% physically gold backed.  Also use a reputable dealer.  Frankly for a few grand I'd just use IG SB.

[trade247]

Yes, whilst I do agree we're going to be looking at a major sell off and correction at some point, I don't feel like it can be as soon as people expect. I would doubt the recent trade wars would be enough to kick it off as it's so apparent that all the financial institutions and monetary funds, including those central government and international monetary committees would have a close eye on it and provide assistance as and when required.

I think the effect of the trade war will have is exhaust the options of these bodies and then we're going to be in a massive pile of ...

There is just too much debt, and as soon as that cracks you're going to be a wee boy stood below hoover dam, looking up and seeing the turmoil unfold in slow motion. We're certainly on path for a significant correction but where it comes from Is likely to be unknown. That's why it happens IMO - because we don't have an understanding of it and then it too late.

[trade247]

"buy when there is blood on the streets" is also a favourite, but kinda morbid when you realise it probably relates to bankers jumping from the rooftops when the market crashes...

[LeoTrader]

You might find this article of interest, @cryptotrader. EM might not be the best investment if the USD continues to appreciate, according to this guy: 

The Dollar Is The New VIX - Forbes

[Mercury]

true, a lot of EM growth was fueled by debt denominated in USD.