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14/01/21 09:51
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By Caseynotes · Posted
oh, Fauci 'not sure' why Texas doesn't have COVID uptick after nixing masks (nypost.com) I can help out there, it's because there never was any science that backed mask wearing and the mandates are solely for psy-ops and conditioning purposes. Meanwhile study covering 10 million shows no Covid asymptomatic spread. Asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 didn’t occur at all, study of 10 million finds | News | LifeSite (lifesitenews.com) And next, actually only a minimal chance of surface contamination after all. CDC just announced on Monday that there is less than 1 in 10,000 chance of surface contamination. That is 0.0001 Guy Wadas @GuyAWadas As the whole house of cards comes tumbling down here's a very well researched and referenced blog piece on the mRNA vaccines. Spoiler alert, you should be very worried; 18 Reasons I Won't Be Getting a Covid Vaccine (deconstructingconventional.com) Meanwhile Matt has a chat with the boss; Matt Hancock @MattHancock Great to speak to @wef today regarding the UK vaccine rollout. I set out why government, academia & enterprise have been crucial to our deployment success. As I’ve said many times before all roads in this lead back to Davos & the @wef. Western govts are following the WEF’s #GreatReset agenda. ‘Vaccine passports/‘Covid certificates’ - the gateway to a Chinese style social credit system, are a key part of this agenda. Neil Clark @NeilClark66 . -
A Better Way To Go About Technical Analysis I have never been a chartist. I knew nothing about moving average crossovers, chart patterns, candlesticks and oscillators. Matter of fact in all honesty I still don't. One of my role models is Anton Kriel; the man manages almost 100 million in assets, runs an online academy, manages 1000 traders and is active on tweeter he is simply a beast! In his educational talks to students, technical analysis is the last 10 percent of his investing process and he only knows basic patterns ! I did that at first ( support and resistance patterns) and I was relatively successful before using other indicators and TA , didn't do too bad but returns were not out of this world either. I did however I noticed that recently, my losses began to accelerate whilst using them. Not that there is anything wrong with indicators per say, its just that there is no standardised indicator that can capture the behaviour of price at granular/deep level ( for me at least) . I have always been obsessed with tinkering with things and exploring ideas about their inner workings. Problem with doing this with a live account is education in the form of losses can be psychologically draining, Taking losses with large positions whilst experimenting, comes with sleepless nights and short tempered flareups with family members. This is why I thought there has to be a better way to do this. A way that bears the least emotional and personal toll. So after 1/3rd of my account got wipped-out I turned to math. More on this later. In 1854 there was an outbreak of cholera in London. Nasty disease . It was thought to have been spread through "miasma" ; which is some sort of vapour or smell like entity or something. But a man called Jon Snow was skeptical. His skeptisism was so pronounced that he measured and mapped out all sightings / points where the disease was reported and came the realisation that the water supply in soho was the source of infection. The story goes that he marched into soho and broke the handle of the pump that supplied water to the area. Soon after the pump was destroyed the infection stopped . Upon investigation, it was realised that the water supply was within close proximity to a cesspit hence the source of the cholera outbreak. Jon was able to come to that conclusion by deliberately measuring , mapping and taking copious notes on the cases of cholera the he came upon. This is part of my process. I measure and map EVERYTHING that is relevant to my portfolio/ positions /ideas views outlook forecast etc. WRITE S&^$ DOWN . If it has a number, write it down somewhere. A note book is preferable but write it somewhere on something. Get into the habit. After writing things down calculate the % change on a historical basis. i.e. how has this number changed vs where it has been in the past ? it doesn't have to be organised at first, that will come later but get into the habbit. Be cognisant of the numbers and how the numbers change. It could be price, economic data points name it . Just write it somewhere you will be surprised the insights you come up with yourself before they become the narrative. Top things I like to have in my note book ( I have at least 30-40) is the prices or change in prices of common macro drivers: 1) The Dollar 2) The Move Index ( bond volatility) 3) The Vix ( spy vol) 4) Commodities / Oil 5) VXN ( nasdaq vol) 6) OVX ( oil vol) 7) Major market Indexes. These are the things that you should at least be watching. If you notice there are a few volatility drivers up there. That is deliberate. Before I explain why let me dive into a personal anecdote from my time as a child. I skipped school a lot as a teenager and as a result my grades deteriorated , as function of that my annual school report was abysmal as a function of that my mother seeking answers came to the school and found out that I was skipping classes which ended in her beating the dogS%$% out of me in from of my teachers and friends. That embarrassment I felt was the 6th derivative of a bad decision I made 6 months prior. 1st derivative was me skipping classes 2nd was deteriorating grades 3rd was my mum getting pissed off because private school is expensive 4th was her coming down to school 5th was the beating and 6th was the embarrassment . As an investor you have to start thinking in derivatives ie what will be the knock on effect if x happens ? I always did this when I thought about running my business but I never thought to do this when looking at prices. Which brings me to volatility . VOLATILITY IS THE FIRST DERIVATIVE OF PRICE. This is why it is very important to keep it on your dash board. The standard deviation of volatility or the VOL of VOL is the 3rd derivative of price. Understanding how that derivative behaves has gotten me out of a lot of trouble and put me on the path to slowly making my money back. Did you know that since 1999 the S&P500 price moves have a 96% correlation with the calculation of volatility for the Implied volatility of options that are at or near the money in the option market? Well I didn't know this either ..... MATH! . Understanding volatility is crucial as a risk management tool. It is the keys to the city. I have attached a paper below that you can all read to get more understanding so that you can build you own models. My model is built around the principles in this paper. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-financial-and-quantitative-analysis/article/unknown-unknowns-uncertainty-about-risk-and-stock-returns/6E0E98349D20C1DCF67F3A0452361B80 Good Luck CA -
By Caseynotes · Posted
Hi, you need an econ calendar, take your pick; Top 11 Forex Calendars in 2020 (earnforex.com)
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Question
RWw 4
Hello!
So I was looking through the charts the other day and noticed something a bit odd. Well actually that IG MT4 platform is showing faulty price action. Something quite different from the Online platform but also other brokers.
The screenshot attached shows IG MT4, IG Online Platform and IC Markets MT4. In that order.
I added the trend line, in black, to highlight even further how the prices and candles don't add up. Notice how the trend line only touches two highs in IG MT4 but on the online platform it touches three tops and does so also in IC Markets MT4.
To highlight further the part where the price action is wrong in IG MT4 I added a red square in IG MT4 chart and a blue square in the charts where the price action is the same(which is also the correct one).
What is going on and how often does this happen?
Edited by RWwLink to post
7 answers to this question
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