Macro Market Analysis Help

[Guest RichB-Trader]

Hello,

 

I am currently on a Demo account (and have been for 6 months) whilst I learn the ins and outs of trading. I have got decent consistent returns now, some losers but with Risk:Reward my winners keep me profitable.

 

I am using technical analysis, mostly price action/volume with pattern analysis for my triggers, with MACD/RSI and MA’s providing a strength of the move risk to allow me to vary my size of trade. 

 

My question is other than the stock and the indicie such as FTSE or S&P 500 analysis is there anything else I should look at? 

 

I keep an eye on the news, Bloomberg/CNBC etc. Analysis the indicie, but I am keen to try to spot the macro trends and turning points. Thinking looking at things like market breadth for indications, which I can get from Barrons for U.S stocks but not UK (?)? Anything else worth taking a look? Thanks all!

[Caseynotes]

18 hours ago, RichB-Trader said:

Anything else worth taking a look? Thanks all!

Take a look at my reply to a similar question in this thread.

 

[Guest RichB-Trader]

15 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

@RichB-Trader,

You could look at Commodities. They can offer some really good trends to trade and follow.

Why are you keen to spot macro trends and turning points? Are you someone who is going to trade on news? 

You need to ask yourself how you are going to use any information you obtain from spotting macro trends and turning points? You will need to include this in your trading plan. 

Commodities can offer some really good trends to trade so you may want to just start looking at the price action of certain commodities and see if it is something that interests you.

Hello,

 

Thanks for your questions. I am 100% equity trading, and don’t intent on trading from the news as I am not sat infront of the computer all day in order to do this, nor do I have instant news feeds from paid subscriptions. My thinking is other than looking at price,volume and patterns what else should I look at. 

 

I use news feeds to inform me of sentiment etc. For example Facebook is very much in a bull flag however news this week means getting out of a long position may be worthwhile as the risk is mounting up.

 

I guess the question is what else should I look at, such as COT index which @Caseynotes kindly pointed me too. Perhaps Advance/Decline (breadth) data would be another?

[Guest RichB-Trader]

5 hours ago, TrendFollower said:

@RichB-Trader,

Ok. I only invest in equities and do not tend to trade them. Do you trade UK equities, US equities, Asian equities or European equities? Or all of them? The other consideration is whether you trade large cap, mid cap or small caps?

I have historically trades equities such as banks, etc. What I used to do is just focus on a few specific equities and just trade them. Obviously due to time constraints I have focussed mainly on Commodities and Cryptocurrencies. Commodities more so. 

With equities do you look at the fundamentals of the company? Or do you just trade on technicals or a combination of both? If you put news to one side then are you trading strong trending equities which have volatility? How do you select which equities to trade?

When I used to trade equities I basically only focussed on a few equities I had identified which were trending either long or short, the volume was supporting the price action and volatility existed. I only focussed on a few so that I could live and breathe those stocks and really get into tune with its price action. If you try and trade too many different equities and cannot allocate the time required to conduct intensive research then I find it becomes too much. Focus is key so I just picked a few stocks and stuck with them unless they started trending sideways in which case it was discarded from my trading portfolio. 

 

Hi,

 

I trade US and UK equities in the FTSE, Nasdaq and S&P 500 (so all large cap) generally companies I understand there business without having to research. So typically anything from Lloyds bank, to nVidea, MGM and Persimmon. I look at around 40 stocks every day. They are all cyclical and non cyclical stocks, defensive and growth so I can see how they are all trending. 

My entries are based on technicals only, Patterns and volume but with a few of my favourite indicators overlaid. The main reason for my initial question is of course news and overall market sentiment influence the equity market. Generally happy with my trades but wondering if any other good data points should be included like Advance/Declines, COT Index. Trying to get ahead of those days where a trade goes “the wrong way” without notice but in hind sight there were some clues. 

 

So I guess an open question to all, what things (other than Price/Volume) do you look at?

 

Hope that all makes sense, and thanks for your help!

[Guest RichB-Trader]

On 18/03/2019 at 09:22, TrendFollower said:

@RichB-Trader,

The different things a trader looks at depends on their personal trading style and methodology. What one trader looks at may not be relevant to another trader.

I think you need a defined trading plan. Your trading plan will tell you what you need to look at and more specifically why. Do you have a trading plan? As failing to plan is a plan to fail! 

If you do not then I would suggest stopping all live trading until you have come up with a trading plan. You will also need a trading strategy. You must have a trading strategy as otherwise you really are speculating / gambling. You must also have a trading system. Until you have these three things I would not conduct any live trades. That is just my personal opinion but it is your decision to make. 

Hello,

Thanks. I have a full 50 page trading plan, overall stratagy and spreadsheet auto calculating what risks there are as well as a full trading diary. However I am still demo account as I want to fine tune my system before I go live.

 

Maybe my question is badly phrased, maybe it should more be, does anybody have any useful sites or sources of data that give a perspective on the macro market. Breadth, sentiment, news etc?

[andysinclair]

12 minutes ago, RichB-Trader said:

Hello,

Thanks. I have a full 50 page trading plan, overall stratagy and spreadsheet auto calculating what risks there are as well as a full trading diary. However I am still demo account as I want to fine tune my system before I go live.

 

Maybe my question is badly phrased, maybe it should more be, does anybody have any useful sites or sources of data that give a perspective on the macro market. Breadth, sentiment, news etc?

Hi @RichB-Trader

Would you mind sharing your risk spreadsheet (just the structure with any data blanked out)? I am working on building a risk and trading history spreadsheet and am interested to see how you have approached it.

Thanks.