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What are some of the key events to watch next week? Source: Bloomberg Inflation Federal Reserve United States Interest Interest rates Interest rate Written by: Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore Publication date: Friday 16 February 2024 08:15 This week’s overview Despite some inflation jitters brought by a hotter-than-expected US consumer price index (CPI) print this week, Wall Street managed to regain its footing with the S&P 500 setting yet another record high. It seems like the risk rally has been left unscathed, as market participants recalibrated their rate expectations to be more in line with the Federal Reserve (Fed). Japan’s Nikkei stole the limelight in Asia, briefly topping the 38,800 mark for the first time since January 1990 and leaving it just than 2% away from a new record high. The ASX 200 is flirting with previous record-high territory as well, while closer to home, the Straits Times Index (STI) has also seen renewed signs of life, rebounding by close to 4% since Wednesday to reclaim its 200-day moving average (MA). As we head into the new week, here are six things on our radar. US earnings season: Walmart, Home Depot, NVIDIA, Berkshire Hathaway The US earnings releases next week will leave spotlight on Nvidia’s results as the key risk event for markets. With Nvidia accounting for the bulk of the market rally through 2023 and into 2024, high expectations are in place, which leaves little room for error. Thus far, corporate earnings momentum has been robust. As of 16 February 2024, 79% of S&P 500 companies have released their results, with 80% delivering an earnings beat. This rate of outperformance towers above both the 5-year average (77%) and 10-year average (74%). Source: Refinitiv 20 February 2024 (Tuesday, 8.30am SGT): Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes In its February meeting, the RBA maintained the official cash rate at 4.35% in line with expectations. The Bank observed that elevated interest rates are effectively moderating inflation and fostering a balanced supply-demand equilibrium. "Higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between aggregate demand and supply in the economy." The RBA highlighted its data-driven approach, maintaining a slight tightening bias. "The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks, and a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out." Analysts will meticulously analyse the minutes for insights into the RBA Board's deliberations in February, indicators for future policy adjustments based on its tightening stance for 2024, and any indications towards a shift to a more neutral policy outlook. Source: Refinitiv 22 February 2024 (Thursday, 3am SGT): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes In its January session, the Fed kept the Fed Funds target rate steady at 5.25%-5.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting. The Fed updated its policy stance, indicating rate cuts are on the horizon, though not immediate. "The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent." Analysts will thoroughly examine the minutes for insights into the Fed's balance sheet strategies, potential timing for rate reductions, its perspective on recent US economic data exceeding expectations, and perceived risks to the global economy. Source: Refinitiv 22 February 2024 (Thursday, 10.45pm SGT): S&P Global flash US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Last month, the US PMI numbers from S&P Global have revealed a stronger upturn in economic activities, with the manufacturing sector delivering its highest read since September 2022 at 50.7. Growth in services has been robust as well, delivering its fourth straight month of increase to 52.5. Overall, this brought the US composite PMI to a six-month high at 52.0. The takeaway from the sub-components over the past months is one of lukewarm economic growth and waning cost pressures, which may be encouraging for soft landing hopes and impending rate cuts, currently priced to be leaning towards the June meeting. The upcoming read for February is expected to reinforce more of the same, with the manufacturing sector expected to ease to 50.1 from previous 50.7, while the services sector PMI may ease to 52.0 from previous 52.5. Source: Refinitiv 22 February 2024 (Thursday, 5pm SGT): Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Eurozone PMI While economic conditions in the Eurozone have been in contraction territory for the eighth straight month, there are slight signs of improvement lately. From its January PMI figures, the manufacturing sector has turned in a softer contraction at 46.6, while the services side continue to stabilise around the 47-48 range, following a sharp moderation since April 2022. The improvement is set to continue into January, with expectations for manufacturing PMI to improve to 47.0 from previous 46.6. Services PMI is expected to turn in a lesser contraction as well at 48.7 versus 48.4. The still-subdued economic conditions may likely help in the current disinflation process, potentially raising optimism about getting inflation back to the European Central Bank (ECB)’s 2% target and support upcoming cuts, potentially in June. Source: Refinitiv 23 February 2024 (Friday, 1pm SGT): Singapore’s inflation rate Singapore’s headline and core inflation rate has seen a surprise uptick in December 2023, attributed to a faster pace of increase in private transport costs and services inflation. While the persistence in pricing pressures is likely to continue into early 2024 to reflect the latest Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate increase, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and Ministry of Trade & Industry (MTI) still expect a “gradual moderating trend” in core inflation over 2024. With that, authorities may look beyond any near-term uptick in inflation as long as it continues to fall within its projected range for 2024 (3%-4% for headline, 2.5%-3% for core). For the upcoming read, consensus is for Singapore’s headline inflation to tick higher to 3.9% from previous 3.7%. Source: Refinitiv IGA, may distribute information/research produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the IG Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, IGA accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact IGA at 6390 5118 for matters arising from, or in connection with the information distributed. The information/research herein is prepared by IG Asia Pte Ltd (IGA) and its foreign affiliated companies (collectively known as the IG Group) and is intended for general circulation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Please see important Research Disclaimer. Please also note that the information does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update.

The Nikkei 225 has been performing well, trading close to its record high from 1989. Despite Japan slipping into recession and losing its position as the world's third-largest economy, the stock market has continued to rally. The weakening yen has been beneficial for large Japanese companies with global operations, boosting their profits and supporting the export-reliant economy. However, a soft yen also raises the prices of food and energy imports, impacting consumers. The Bank of Japan is facing the challenge of balancing its monetary policy to support economic growth while considering the potential risks of maintaining negative interest rates for an extended period. U.S. stocks have also been performing well, reaching record highs, driven by expectations of rate cuts later in the year and the growth of the tech and AI sectors. Today's data includes the latest US producer price inflation and the preliminary Michigan confidence survey for February.

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Upcoming mid-April Bitcoin halving: What to expect? Delve into the Bitcoin halving's impact on mining rewards and its historical trend of triggering price surges. How might this event shape Bitcoin's future market value? Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Price Bitcoin network IG Analyst Publication date: Thursday 15 February 2024 05:09 The Bitcoin halving event is due in mid-April – what does this mean? Bitcoin halving is a scheduled event that occurs approximately every four years, or after 210,000 blocks have been mined. During this event, the reward for mining new blocks is halved, meaning miners receive 50% fewer bitcoins for verifying transactions. Halving is hard-wired into the Bitcoin protocol to ensure that the total supply of the currency is capped at 21 million, thereby introducing scarcity into the ecosystem. The next Bitcoin halving event is expected in mid-April this year. Bitcoin mining is a critical process that underpins the functionality and security of the Bitcoin (BTC) network. Mining involves solving complex mathematical problems to validate transactions; and add new blocks to the blockchain. This process is carried out by powerful computers, often referred to as miners, which compete to solve these problems in exchange for rewards in the form of newly minted bitcoins, and transaction fees. Balancing act: How mining difficulty and market prices shape Bitcoin's economy Mining difficulty adjusts approximately every two weeks, to ensure that the time between blocks remains around 10 minutes, irrespective of the number of miners and their computational power. This difficulty adjustment can influence miner profitability. When prices are high, more miners are incentivised to compete, increasing the hash rate (the total computational power used to mine and process transactions). Conversely, if the price drops and mining becomes less profitable, miners may exit the market, which can decrease the hash rate. If the price of Bitcoin falls below the cost of mining, miners may choose to hold onto their bitcoins rather than sell at a loss, potentially creating a supply crunch. Bitcoin halving events historically lead to bullish market behaviour. The first Bitcoin halving occurred in November 2012, reducing the mining reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Following the halving, Bitcoin experienced a significant surge in value, going from around $13 to over $1,100 in the next year. The second halving took place in July 2016, when the reward dropped from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC after the halving. Bitcoin reached a high of around $20,000 by December 2017. The third halving, in May 2020, reduced the block reward to 6.25 BTC. Bitcoin surpassed its previous all-time high and traded at just over $69,000 in November 2021. Historical Bitcoin halving price action November 28th 2012 Halving Price - $13 --- 2013 Peak Price - $1,125 July 16th 2016 Halving Price - $664 --- 2017 Peak Price - $19,798 May 11th 2020 Halving Price - $9,168 --- 2021 Peak Price - $69,000 With two months to go before the next halving event, Bitcoin is pushing higher, helped in part by the recent launch of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs. The strong demand for these ETFs has not only underpinned the spot price of Bitcoin but is also driving the price higher as the halving event nears. Bitcoin has regained the $50k level and may look at testing the all-time-high around $69k after the halving event reduces mining rewards by 50%. Bitcoin weekly price chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Dive into the latest moves in the tech-heavy index following a slight pullback in yields and gains for heavyweight Nvidia. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Federal Reserve Inflation Nasdaq Price Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai Publication date: Thursday 15 February 2024 07:27 Light on data, Fed comments, and a slight pullback in yields There was little to process in terms of economic data out of the US, with the weekly mortgage applications from the MBA falling 2.3%. This shift meant attention was focused on Federal Reserve (Fed) members speaking. The Fed's Barr discussed the potential "bumpy" path to their 2% inflation target following Tuesday’s higher CPI (Consumer Price Index) readings, stating it's "very early to say whether we end up with a soft landing or not". Goolsbee expressed opposition to "waiting until inflation on a 12-month basis has already reached 2% before beginning to cut rates". As for Treasury yields, they closed the session lower, reversing some of Tuesday's gains and falling back in real terms, which is seen as a positive for risk appetite. Breakeven inflation rates edged slightly higher, and market pricing (CME's FedWatch) anticipates the US central bank will maintain its current policy in May, even if by a slim majority that isn’t too far from a coin toss. More Fed members are scheduled to speak today, alongside the 10-year TIPS auction, but there's also a significant amount of US data on the docket, including retail sales for January, which are forecasted to show a slight contraction. Important data is also expected tomorrow with producer prices and the University of Michigan's (UoM) preliminary readings for consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Sector performance places tech near the top, Nvidia overtakes Alphabet Most sectors concluded yesterday's session positively, with industrials leading, closely followed by communications, technology, and consumer discretionary. This resulted in gains for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which outperformed both the S&P 500 and Dow 30 for the session. By the close, component performance saw Illumina and Netflix leading, with AMD close behind. On the other end, Kraft Heinz suffered the most due to a revenue miss, and after hours, Cisco's cautious guidance sent its share price tumbling. It was a session where Nvidia surpassed Alphabet to become the third most valuable company on the US stock market, with notable gains for other major players like Meta and Tesla. Nasdaq technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels Price eventually settled above Wednesday’s daily 2nd Resistance level favoring conformist buy-breakouts and stopping out contrarian sell-after-reversals, but that hasn’t meant caution on pullbacks in price after what was witnessed last Tuesday even if the catalyst then was a significant fundamental event. The technical overview remains ‘bull average’ in both daily and weekly time frames. Source: IG IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Nasdaq In terms of sentiment, retail traders are predominantly short, having reduced their sell bias to 63% rather than increasing it as is typical following significant price gains. They started the week with a substantial 70% sell bias, with some traders exiting their short positions after last Tuesday's price drop. Since then, they have been cautious about selling into price gains. In contrast, CoT speculators hold a majority buy position. The latest positioning data indicates they are choosing to decrease their long bias at these price levels. Source: IG Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day. **CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The tech-fuelled rally in Asia, led by TSMC, has given a boost to equities in the region. Taiwan stocks reached a record high, with chip shares catching up with their global counterparts. Nvidia's surge in value, surpassing Google-parent Alphabet and becoming the third-most valuable US company, has also contributed to the positive sentiment in the tech sector. TSMC, a major supplier to Nvidia, experienced a significant increase in stock price, while the IT stocks index in Asia-Pacific outside Japan jumped 3%. The Nikkei continued to climb, supported by chip stocks, despite data which showed the Japanese economy fell into recession, contracting by 0.1% after Q3's 0.8% fall. The data from Japan has raised doubts about the timing of the Bank of Japan's exit from ultra-loose policy. The yen strengthened slightly but remains in the 150 per dollar region. In Europe, the afterglow of Nvidia's rise may also lift bourses, with futures indicating a higher open. The UK economy slipped into recession in Q4, shrinking by 0.3% after Q3's 0.1% fall. Interest rate futures are currently pricing in a 50% chance of a Bank Rate cut in June, but today's data will likely push that number higher.

We’ve launched a new video series titled "Technical cheat sheet", where one of our top-traded markets is selected for an in-depth analysis of its technical aspects, including key indicators, an overview, levels, and strategies. Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai Publication date: Tuesday 13 February 2024 09:53 We examine the main fundamental events that might challenge shorter-term technicals, as well as sentiment amongst IG clients and CoT speculators. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

This month’s consumer price inflation (CPI) is expected to show a further slowing of inflation pressures, but a March rate cut is still very unlikely. Source: Bloomberg Shares Inflation Consumer price index Federal Reserve Price Interest Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 12 February 2024 16:53 Price growth to slow Consumer price inflation (CPI) is projected to slow in January when the data is released on 13 February, bolstering the Federal Reserve's (Fed) view that cuts will happen this year, though it is unlikely to do much for hopes of a March rate cut. The headline CPI rate (year-over-year) is expected to dip below 3% for the first time in nearly three years (since March 2021). Most of that deceleration should come from retreating energy prices and a further slide in food inflation. Home rents drive core inflation Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected at 3.8% year-over-year in January, down slightly from December's 3.9%. But a disproportionate share of that increase still stems from higher home rents. Shelter cost growth will keep slowing as lower market rents gradually pass through into leases. Price increases for goods have fallen back to around zero, as the impact of severe global supply chain strains earlier continues to ease. Markets are no longer expecting any action from the Fed in March, and even weaker inflation is unlikely to push the chance of a March cut much higher. The CME Fed Watch tool shows just a 15% chance of a March cut, down from 77% a month ago: Source: CME Fed Watch In January, the CPI report is expected to show a moderation in inflation, which could instil confidence among economists. The decline in energy prices and a slowdown in food inflation are likely to contribute to a reduction in the overall inflation rate. However, the persistently high rent increases may prevent a significant drop in the "core" CPI, which excludes food and energy. Core inflation measures are important indicators for policymakers as they provide insights into future price trends. The upcoming inflation data will be crucial for financial markets, as they hope for relief from the Fed's benchmark interest rate, which has remained at a 23-year high since July. The Fed's rate hikes, initiated in March 2022, were aimed at curbing inflation but led to interest rates on various loans reaching multi-decade highs. Market participants are eagerly looking for signs of a substantial slowdown in inflation to bolster expectations that the Fed might pause or even reverse some of its aggressive tightening measures. If there is more evidence indicating that underlying price pressures are easing, it could reassure investors that the central bank will not need to maintain restrictive interest rates for as long as previously anticipated. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

An ongoing bullish technical overview in both time frames ahead of the fundamental event. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Consumer price index Federal Reserve Inflation S&P 500 Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai Publication date: Monday 12 February 2024 07:17 CPI revisions, Fed members speaking, and the S&P’s 5,000 breach There were a few items to digest late last week, including the revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was slightly higher for October and November but lower for December. More Federal Reserve (Fed) members speak, with Logan discussing the “tremendous progress” in bringing down inflation but “not seeing any urgency to make any additional adjustments at this time” and to “take time here to continue to look at the data”. Prior to that, Barkin also favored patience, relying on the buffer of “robust demand and a historically strong labor market”, giving “time to build that confidence before we begin the process of toggling rates down”. Key US equity indices finished higher again for the week, and this time around, small-cap also enjoyed gains, though it was the S&P 500 taking most of the attention with the breach of its 5,000 level. Over in the bond market, Treasury yields finished the week higher and, on the further end, reversing losses from the week before that, in real terms averaging closer to 2% for the 5Y through 30Y, and market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) anticipating the first rate cut out of the US central bank in May via an unhealthy majority. Week ahead: CPI, retail sales, PPI, and more earnings As for the week ahead, it starts off very light with little to get excited about later today aside from more Fed members speaking, but picks up tomorrow with a heavyweight as we get January’s CPI readings. Expectations are for year-on-year (y/y) growth to drop from 3.4% headline to 3%, month-on-month (m/m) to rise by 0.2%, and when excluding food and energy, to see increases of 3.8% and 0.3%, respectively (Cleveland Fed’s ‘nowcasts’ at 2.94%, 0.13%, 3.81%, and 0.32%). Trade pricing data will be released on Thursday, where you can expect the attention to be on retail sales, already enjoying six consecutive beats, but forecasts are for a slight drop this time around. Producer prices for the same month will be on Friday, an ongoing story of sub-2% headline and core readings y/y, and forecasts are for m/m growth of just 0.1% for both. Consumer inflation expectations out of UoM (University of Michigan) have been trending in the right direction and not too far off pre-pandemic averages, and while consumer sentiment rising has been an added plus, it still requires a climb to touch 100 as it did in early 2020. The preliminary readings will also be released on Friday, preceded by a couple of items out of the housing market. For those trading energy, the weekly API, EIA, and Baker Hughes figures will be on offer on their respective days, but add to it OPEC’s monthly report tomorrow and IEA’s on Thursday, and whether the gap in demand forecasts for this year between the two will remain wide. It’ll be relatively quieter on the US earnings front and includes Coca-Cola on Tuesday, Cisco on Wednesday, and Coinbase on Thursday. Dow technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels The intraweek highs and lows were within its previous weekly 1st levels, lacking a play for conformist and contrarian strategies, but where key technical indicators and its overview remain unchanged in this time frame. As for the daily time frame late last week, Thursday's 1st Resistance held on Friday, causing conformist buy-breakout strategies to fail and lacking a trigger for contrarian sell-after-reversals, though nowhere near derailing the ‘bull average’ technical overview there. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Gold, Brent and natural gas prices all struggle Commodity prices have been unable to make much headway this morning, with even oil prices seeing their recent rally begin to falter. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 12 February 2024 12:09 Gold clings to trendline support Gold’s period of disappointing performance continues, though it has been able to hold rising trendline support from early December. A close back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) would open the way to another test of recent highs at $2060, and then on to $2070 and then the December high at $2086. A close below the trendline would mark a bearish development and suggest a move towards $2000, or down to the December lows. Source: ProRealTime Brent rally stalls After four days of gains, the price has returned to the 200-day SMA. Friday saw the price move above this level and just about hold above it, but the 100-day SMA appeared to act as a resistance. A close back below $80 could signal that the price has formed a lower high, and that a return to the lows of last week could develop. A close above the 100-day SMA would help maintain the bullish outlook and open the way to the $84, the late January high. Source: ProRealTime Natural Gas slumps The major decline in natural gas prices goes on. The price has broken through the early 2023 lows, and now further declines towards the 1644 support level beckon, while beyond this lies the 1517 low from mid-2020. After such sharp losses over the past week, a rebound could develop, but for now trendline resistance from early January stands in the way of any further upside. Source: ProRealTime

Gold, Brent and natural gas prices all struggle Commodity prices have been unable to make much headway this morning, with even oil prices seeing their recent rally begin to falter. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 12 February 2024 12:09 Gold clings to trendline support Gold’s period of disappointing performance continues, though it has been able to hold rising trendline support from early December. A close back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) would open the way to another test of recent highs at $2060, and then on to $2070 and then the December high at $2086. A close below the trendline would mark a bearish development and suggest a move towards $2000, or down to the December lows. Source: ProRealTime Brent rally stalls After four days of gains, the price has returned to the 200-day SMA. Friday saw the price move above this level and just about hold above it, but the 100-day SMA appeared to act as a resistance. A close back below $80 could signal that the price has formed a lower high, and that a return to the lows of last week could develop. A close above the 100-day SMA would help maintain the bullish outlook and open the way to the $84, the late January high. Source: ProRealTime Natural Gas slumps The major decline in natural gas prices goes on. The price has broken through the early 2023 lows, and now further declines towards the 1644 support level beckon, while beyond this lies the 1517 low from mid-2020. After such sharp losses over the past week, a rebound could develop, but for now trendline resistance from early January stands in the way of any further upside. Source: ProRealTime

FTSE 100 struggles while DAX and Dow hold steady The FTSE 100 remains under pressure in early trading, while both the Dax and Dow hold on near their previous highs. Source: Bloomberg Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Monday 12 February 2024 11:45 FTSE 100 under pressure The index has fallen back for several days, retreating from 7700 and the lower high of early February. Having broken above trendline resistance from the 2023 highs during the course of late January, the price may now retest the broken trendline from above. This would also coincide with the 200-day simple moving average (ISMA). A recovery above 7600 might yet signal that a low has been formed. Additional declines target the late January low at 7400, and below this down towards 7250 and the support zone that lasted throughout 2023. Source: ProRealTime DAX holds near 17,000 The Dax continues to consolidate around 17,000, but remains above trendline support from the October low. Mid-January weakness found buyers at the 50-day SMA, and in the short-term a push to a fresh record high seems likely. A near-term retracement requires a close back below the 50-day SMA to open the path to January’s low at 16,345, with some possible support before this at the previous record high of 16,532. Source: ProRealTime Dow drifts through trendline support In what might be seen as a portentous development, the Dow is testing support from the mid-January low. In the short-term, further weakness could follow, potentially clearing the way to another test of the previous highs at 37,825. Below this lies the 50-day SMA, and then down to 37,125, the lows of December. Source: ProRealTime

Explaining the significance of semiconductor companies, and a rundown of some of the best semiconductor stocks to watch. These are the five largest semiconductor stocks in the world by market capitalisation. Source: Bloomberg Shares Semiconductor Nvidia TSMC Integrated circuit Manufacturing Written by: Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London Reviewed by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Semiconductor companies are those involved in the design, manufacturing, and distribution of semiconductor devices and related technology. Semiconductors — or microchips — are essential to the functioning of electronic devices and have seen particular investor interest in 2023 given the rise of the AI sector. Without semiconductors, there would be no computers, smartphones, gaming, or a hundred other applications, all of which are essential to 21st century living. OpenAI’s revolutionary ChatGPT chatbot, the growing political importance of AI development, and Nvidia’s dizzying rally are all testament to the importance of the sector. With significant growth in AI interest expected through the next decade and beyond, investing in semiconductor stocks within a diversified portfolio could be an attractive proposition. For context, giants including Intel and ASML consider that annual global spending on semiconductors will rise to $1 trillion by 2030, up from just $570 billion in 2022. It’s also worth noting that China and the US are both attempting to harm each other’s ability to use advanced semiconductors to develop AI technology; the US through export bans of certain semiconductors and China through export bans of certain critical minerals. Best semiconductor stocks to watch Before delving into some of the most popular individual semiconductor shares, it’s worth highlighting that there are many popular, diversified ETFs which offer exposure into multiple companies on a low cost basis. For example, the Vaneck Vectors Semiconductor UCITS ETF holds 25 of the world’s largest semiconductor companies and is a common choice for investors who want broad exposure to the sector without the need to conduct additional research. In terms of individual shares, the five stocks listed below are widely considered to be the largest AI companies in the world by market capitalisation right now. However, analysts disagree on what exactly constitutes a semiconductor stock, and further, these may not be the best value opportunities. Nvidia Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Broadcom Samsung ASML Nvidia Nvidia shares have been on a dizzying rally to a $1.77 trillion valuation, rising by 1,720% over the past five years. This is more than the entire Chinese stock market. The microchip behemoth was arguably the most popular semiconductor stock of 2023 — though of course, popularity does not mean it is the best investment available. Q3 results were remarkable; revenue came in at $18.12 billion compared to the LSEG analyst consensus of $16.18 billion, a rise of 206% year-over-year. The al-important data-centre revenue rose by a whopping 279% to $15.51 billion — with half of this cash coming from cloud infrastructure providers including Amazon. And Nvidia also expects to generate 231% revenue growth in Q4 — equivalent to $20 billion. On the other hand, it has a huge price-to-earnings ratio, alongside significant exposure to a faltering Chinese economy and rising Sino-US export tensions. Q4 results are expected on 21 February. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company While Nvidia is touted as the ‘picks and shovels’ semiconductor stock for 2023, this crown could arguably belong to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Most chip producers — including Nvidia — outsource actual production to the Taiwanese company, with the country responsible for making circa 90% of the world’s most advanced chips. TSMC shares have did well in 2023, and have continued to rise in 2024, given the AI-driven demand, its colossal manufacturing capacity and the wide economic moat surrounding starting up any sizeable competitor. However, Taiwan’s complex political status, including its relationship with China remains a long-term risk. The company recently announced plans to build a second semiconductor manufacturing plant in Japan. Broadcom Broadcom may not be the most fashionable name in the semiconductor world, but the company’s designs and manufacturing acumen underpins masses of data centre, networking, software, broadband, wireless, storage, and industrial markets. The company’s 2023 fiscal year served up many highlights: revenue grew by grew 8% year-over-year to a record $35.8 billion, driven by investments in accelerators and network connectivity for AI by hyperscalers. President and CEO Hock Tan enthused that ‘the acquisition of VMware is transformational. In fiscal year 2024 we expect semiconductor to sustain its mid to high single digit revenue growth rate, with the contribution of VMware driving consolidated revenue to $50 billion, and adjusted EBITDA to $30 billion.’ And the company delivered a record adjusted EBITDA margin of 85%, delivering $17.6 billion in free cash flow. Broadcom shares now up by 115% over the past year. Samsung Samsung is a South Korean titan that is well-known as one of the world’s largest producers of electronic devices — ranging from appliances to digital media devices, semiconductors, memory chips, and integrated systems. In recent fiscal 2023 results, it reported KRW 258.94 trillion in annual revenue and KRW 6.57 trillion in operating profit — and in the current quarter is focusing on improving profitability by increasing sales of high value-added products. The company further indicated that the second half of this fiscal year should show ‘more significant improvement.’ Samsung also signed a supply deal with Nvidia in September, and further collaboration remains a key opportunity in the new year. ASML ASML is a world leader in chip-making equipment. It’s a common misconception that the company actually makes semiconductors; it does not. It designs and manufactures the lithography machines that are an essential component in microchip manufacture and is therefore indispensable within the wider supply chain. You could argue that ASML is an even more crucial to the manufacturing line than TSMC, but the stock has only risen by a comparatively small 43% over the past year. In 2023 full-year results, the semiconductor stock delivered €27.6 billion in net sales, on a gross margin of 51.3% Accordingly, it delivered a significant €19.91 of earnings per share. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

The AUD/USD ends its losing streak buoyed by a hawkish RBA and record credit growth in China, setting the stage for Australia's pivotal job report. Source: Bloomberg Forex AUD/USD United States dollar China Australian dollar Unemployment Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 12 February 2024 06:20 Last week saw the AUD/USD snap a five-week losing streak, following a more hawkish than expected RBA meeting, and as China credit data beat expectations. Despite the RBA keeping the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, and revising down its forecasts for core inflation (3.1% by end-24, from 3.3% previously), the RBA retained its tightening bias, noting that “a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out”. Data released on Friday in China showed that Chinese banks extended CNY 4.92 trillion in new yuan loans in January, a record high since records began in 2004. At the same time, Total Social Financing (TSF), a broader measure of credit and liquidity, reached a record high of CNY 6.5 trillion in January, well above forecasts for CNY 5.55 trillion. The stronger-than-expected credit data will provide much-needed support from the embattled Chinese economy. This week's critical local economic event for the AUD/USD is Thursday's labour force report for January. What is expected from this week's Labour Force Report (Thursday, February 15th at 11.30pm) Last month, the Australian economy lost a sizeable 65.1k jobs in December vs. the 15k gain expected. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.9% due to a significant drop in the participation rate from 67.1% to 66.8%. David Taylor, ABS head of labour statistics, said: "The fall in employment in December followed larger than usual employment growth in October and November, a combined increase of 117,000 people, with the employment-to-population ratio and participation rate both at record highs in November." This month, the market is looking for the economy to add 37.5k jobs and for the participation rate to increase to 66.9%. This would see the unemployment rate rise to 4.0%, the highest since February 2022 and keep intact our view for two 25bp rate cuts in 2024, the first in August. AU unemployment rate chart Source: TradingEconomics AUD/USD technical analysis Recently, we have been looking for the AUD/USD to stabilise and move higher based on the idea that the pullback from the December .6871 high is part of a correction, rather than a reversal lower. However, last week's break below .6500c has created a degree of technical damage and cast doubt over this interpretation, leaving us with a more neutral bias. To restore a more positive outlook, the AUD/USD must see a sustained move above last week's .6540 high and then above the 200-day moving average at .6570. Aware that while below the .6540/70 resistance zone, the risks are for a test of support at .6400/.6380. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView Source:TradingView. The figures stated are as of 12 February 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

With a history marked by robust FY23 results and recent controversies, all eyes are on the new CEO, Vanessa Hudson, and her team's ability to navigate challenges, enhance customer service, and capitalise on strong travel demand. Source: Bloomberg Shares Qantas Airline Company Executive compensation Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 12 February 2024 03:46 When will Qantas report its latest earnings? Qantas Airways Limited (QAN) is Australia's flag carrier and the third oldest airline in the world. It reports its half-year figures on Thursday, 22 February 2024. Key financials Revenues of $10.61 billion expected Underlying Profit of $1.16 billion expected A Statutory Profit of $711 million expected EPS of $0.52 Soaring high: Qantas' record-breaking FY2023 performance Qantas reported bumper FY2023 earnings in late August, benefiting from strong demand for travel, a slimmed-down cost base, and high ticket prices. The report showcased the following highlights: The Group achieved an Underlying Profit Before Tax of $2.47 billion. A Statutory After-Tax Profit of $1.74 billion. This compares with $7 billion in accumulated statutory losses over three prior years. Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.93. Qantas revenue chart Source: TradingEconomics Turbulence ahead: controversies cloud Qantas However, the first half of 2024 was one of turmoil for Qantas. Beset by several controversies, including accusations of greed, misuse of power, and arrogance, the once much-loved company lost the trust of the public, acknowledged by outgoing Chairman Richard Goyder in the Qantas 2023 Annual Report: "As we move through our recovery, management and the Board are acutely aware of the need to rebuild your confidence in Qantas. We're also conscious of the loss of trust that has occurred because our service has often fallen short of expectations, compounded by a number of other issues relating to the pandemic period. Despite the apology, the company's annual general meeting in November turned heated as shareholders rejected the executive pay deal and criticised management for issues ranging from ghost flights, poor customer service, and preferential treatment to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's son. Hopes that 2024 would provide a fresh start have been dashed following a report by former ACCC chairman Alan Fels, who accused the company of price gouging and recommended airport prices be formally regulated and restrictions on domestic and international aviation removed. Flight path to recovery: Qantas's operational overhaul After former CEO Alan Joyce's early departure, this will be the first set of results for the new CEO, Vanessa Hudson. Ms Hudson has made changes to the executive team and appointed consultant McKinsey for a major overhaul of its operations, focusing on improving its on-time performance. In its last trading update in September, the company noted that travel demand remains robust for the Qantas Group and that the first quarter of FY24 mirrors the strong trading conditions witnessed in the final quarter of FY23. While analysts expect to see higher spending on customer service to repair its tarnished image and higher fuel costs, Qantas is expected to unveil another set of robust earnings numbers. Source: Bloomberg Qantas technical analysis The Qantas share price and the company's reputation took a substantial hit in 2023, falling over 30% from a high of $6.94 in April to a low of $4.67 in October. Since that point, the share price has reclaimed about half of those losses to be trading at $5.72, just below resistance at $5.80, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the $6.94 high to the $4.67 low. Above $5.80, there is a formidable layer of horizontal resistance at $6.00/$6.20 before the March 2023 $6.94 high. On the downside, near-term support is viewed at $5.50 before weekly uptrend support at around $5.00, coming from the March 2020 $2.03 low. Be aware that a sustained break of uptrend support would open the way for the price to test the October $4.67 low before a band of horizontal support at $4.20. Qantas weekly chart Source: TradingView Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 12 February 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Boosted by tech giants, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reach new highs. Investors await crucial economic data, including Jan's inflation figures, to discern the US economy's trajectory and Feds' next steps amid a lively earnings season. Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia Publication date: Monday 12 February 2024 05:26 On Friday night, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit new record highs, buoyed by mega-tech companies including Nvidia, Amazon, and Alphabet. The Nasdaq increased by 1.81% for the week and is up 6.75% CYTD (Calendar Year To Date). The S&P 500 closed 1.37% higher for the week, at a 5.38% increase CYTD, while the Dow Jones finished the week flat, up 2.61% CYTD. Following a series of stronger-than-expected data this year, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q1 predicts growth at 3.4%, prompting discussions on whether the US economy is slowing down or reaccelerating. Further insights will be provided by this week's key macroeconomic events, including inflation and retail sales reports for January and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February. The economic calendar also includes eight Federal Reserve speaker events, and the Q4 earnings season continues with reports from companies such as Coca-Cola, Airbnb, Lyft, Cisco, Robinhood, AMD, Dropbox, and Coinbase. What is expected from January’s inflation report Date: Wednesday, 14 February at 12.30am AEDT With stronger-than-expected data and less dovish Federal Reserve commentary, the market has almost completely discounted the possibility of a Fed rate cut in March. However, around five rate cuts are still priced in for 2024 compared to the three cuts suggested by the Fed, largely based on the ongoing disinflationary trend. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.2% in January, bringing the annual rate down to 2.9% YoY (Year on Year) from 3.4% previously. Core inflation is anticipated to increase by 0.3% MoM (Month on Month), which would see the annual core inflation rate ease to 3.7% from 3.9% YoY. The risk lies in potentially firmer-than-expected numbers. US headline CPI chart Source: TradingEconomics S&P 500 technical analysis After capitalising on the strong rally in the S&P 500 at the end of 2023, we entered the New Year with a more cautious and neutral mindset—a stance that has not been rewarding as the mega-tech frenzy pushed the market higher. Nonetheless, our assessment is that the S&P 500 is in the final stages (Wave V) of its rally from the low in October 2023, with continued evidence of bearish Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence on the daily chart. Bearish RSI divergence occurs when prices hit new highs, but the RSI does not. Moreover, the S&P 500 cash level has now encountered trendline resistance at 5030, drawn from the December 1st high of 4100, as shown in the chart below. Therefore, we are not inclined to pursue the market at these levels and maintain the perspective that a pullback is imminent. S&P 500 daily chart Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical analysis After witnessing the remarkable rally in US equity markets in the final months of 2023, we approached the new year with increased caution—a strategy that has not yielded expected returns as the Mega Tech frenzy propelled the market upwards. Despite this, we maintain the perspective that the Nasdaq is approaching the final stages (Wave V) of its ascent from the low in October 2023. A decisive break or daily closure below the uptrend support at 17,300, originating from the October lows, would indicate that the Nasdaq has reached its peak and a more substantial retracement towards support levels at 16,200/16,000 could be imminent. Until such a break occurs, the Nasdaq's rally is likely to persist. Nasdaq daily chart Source: TradingView Source:TradingView. The figures stated are as of 12 February 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

easyJet, Royal Mail, PZ Cussons, Wizz Air and Crest Nicholson could be the five best FTSE 250 stocks to watch next month. These shares have been selected for recent market news. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Royal Mail EasyJet Inflation FTSE 100 Written by: Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London The FTSE 250 has fallen by 2.1% year-to-date, 5.9% over the past year, and by more than 5,000 points since September 2021 to circa 19,100 points today. Unlike its older brother — the FTSE 100, whose constituents derive the majority of their income from overseas — the FTSE 250 is far more domestically focused. And on the question on whether the UK will see the desired soft landing — the jury is still out. In terms of fiscal policy, the spring budget is due to be announced on 6 March. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has intoned that the scope for tax cuts is limited, a position also held by the International Monetary Fund. On the other hand, a general election must be held within the next 11 months, the Conservatives are trailing in the polls, and tax cuts can be popular with voters. In terms of monetary policy, there appears to be good news on the horizon. While the Bank of England has kept the base rate at 5.25% since September 2023, it now expects CPI inflation to fall to 2% by May. For context, Governor Andrew Bailey has specifically noted that ‘we need to see more evidence that inflation is set to fall all the way to the 2% target, and stay there, before we can lower interest rates.’ There is a danger that inflation could resurge later on in the year, as the impact of above-inflation pay rises and new supply chain challenges in the Red Sea poses fresh problems. But the markets are pricing in rate cuts in 2024, and this in theory will help the best FTSE 250 shares to grow. Of course, this potential advantage must also be weighed against recession risk, making investing decisions increasingly more complex. Top FTSE 250 shares to watch These shares have been selected for recent market news and are not investment advice. Crest Nicholson PZ Cussons Wizz Air easyJet Royal Mail Crest Nicholson Crest Nicholson's 2023 full-year results may make for poor reading — but for perspective, the UK housing market slowed drastically last year in response to rising mortgage costs and falling sales volume. Consequentially, the housebuilder saw revenue fall by 28% year-over-year to £657.5 million, reflecting ‘weakness in the housing market.’ And completions fell steeply from 2,734 in 2022 to just 2,020 in 2023 — with pretax profit falling from £137.8 million to just £41.4 million in the year. Profitability has been hit by increased costs at legacy sites including its Brightwells Yard regeneration scheme in Farnham, alongside a possible £13 million legal bill to settle costs arising from a 2021 fire at one of its apartment sites. Issuing its third profit warning in six months, outgoing CEO Peter Truscott noted that these were ‘a disappointing set of results in FY23.’ However, the company is getting a new CEO in the form of Persimmon’s chief commercial officer Martyn Clark. And the Barratt-Redrow merger could spark further interest in the company — especially at its current valuation. PZ Cussons PZ Cussons is also in hot water. The consumer goods titan’s half-year results saw the stock slump as it slashed adjusted operating profit forecasts for the full year to between £55 million and £60 million — down from previous expectations of between £61.5 million and £68.2 million, and also a significant drop from the £73.3 million generated in fiscal 2023. For context, revenue fell by 17.8% to £277.1 million between June and November — and the interim dividend was almost halved to just 1.5p per share. The key problem is arguably the devaluation of the Naira (Nigeria’s currency) as the country is responsible for more than a third of the company’s revenue. However, PZ Cussons still retains significant brand labels including Carex and Imperial Leather, and the current weakness may feel attractive to investors who are prepared to accept the risks. Wizz Air Wizz Air's recent Q3 results made for better reading: revenue jumped by 16.8% to €1,064.8 million, while passenger ticket revenue increased by 19.2% to €553.9 million. Meanwhile, the airline saw Available Seat Kilometres (multiply available seats on any given aircraft by the number of kilometres flown on a given flight) rise by a significant 26.9% year-over-year. And it saw record traffic of 15.1 million passengers in the quarter compared to just 12.4 million the year before. CEO József Váradi enthuses that ‘Wizz Air continued to deliver industry-leading capacity growth during the third quarter…while financial performance in the last quarter was materially affected by the suspension and reallocation of Israel capacity, we maintain our expectations for F24 net income.’ easyJet easyJet's Q1 results also appeared to be positive — while it made a headline loss before tax of £126 million, this was an improvement on the £133 million of a year ago. Passenger numbers grew by 14%, and easyJet Holidays remain a highlight, with profit more than doubling to £30 million. Perhaps most importantly in a forward-looking market, the airline reported ‘strong turn of year bookings with seats sold and yield ahead YoY.’ Further, is expects to see more than 25% year-on-year customer growth in easyJet Holidays for FY24. CEO Johan Lundgren enthuses that ‘we delivered an improved performance in the quarter which is testament to the strength of demand for our brand and network. The popularity of easyJet holidays also continues to grow, with 48% more customers in the period.’ However, the airline did take a £40 million hit from the Middle East conflict. Royal Mail Royal Mail’s parent International Distribution Services has seen adjusted operating losses in its recent half-year results rise by 45% year-over-year to £319 million. This was driven by lower parcel volumes and the cost of the pay settlement agreed with the Communication Workers Union. For context, the parent was fined £5.6 million recently for missing first and second class delivery targets over the 2022-23 financial year. However, regulator OFCOM is considering allowing Royal Mail to reduce its letter delivery service from the current six days a week to as little as three days a week — which could see profitability rise sharply. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Asian stocks saw a mixed performance, with the Nikkei 225 and ASX 200 flat, while mainland China indices saw strong gains and the Hang Seng suffered fresh losses. The Nikkei 225 crossed the 37,000 mark for the first time in 34 years, as a weak yen lifted exporter stocks, and the broader Topix index also made a new high. A quiet end to the week sees European futures pointing to a muted open, while crude oil is calm after a 3% gain yesterday. Markets face a light economic calendar, with just Canadian job numbers on the agenda for the session.

We look at market breadth and its uses for traders and investors when looking at stock market indices. Source: Bloomberg Indices Stock market index Market trend S&P 500 Stock market Trader Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Thursday 08 February 2024 14:48 Understanding Market Breadth Market breadth is a powerful analytical tool used by traders to assess the health and direction of the overall market. It is a concept that looks at the number of stocks advancing versus those declining within a specific index such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or the Nasdaq. Market breadth is a form of technical analysis that provides insights into the underlying strength or weakness of market moves that are not always visible from the index's price chart alone. When more stocks are advancing than declining, it indicates a bullish sentiment, suggesting that investors are confident and are driving up prices. This scenario is often seen as a confirmation of a broad market uptrend. On the flip side, a greater number of declining stocks points towards bearish sentiment, which could be indicative of a potential downtrend in the market. Volume is a key factor that is sometimes included in market breadth indicators. The rationale behind this is that price movements with higher volume are deemed more significant as they represent a larger consensus among investors about the value of a stock. The Significance of Market Breadth Indicators Market breadth indicators come in various forms, each providing unique insights. These indicators are utilized to identify confirmation and divergence. Confirmation occurs when both the market index and the breadth indicator are moving in the same direction, which strengthens the case for the current trend. Divergence, however, is a situation where the market index and the breadth indicator move in opposite directions, signalling the possibility of a trend reversal. One commonly used market breadth indicator is the Advance-Decline Index, or A/D line, which shows the net difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks. This indicator can be particularly telling; for instance, if the S&P 500 (S&P 500) is on an uptrend while the A/D line is trending downward, it could imply that the uptrend is not supported by a broad base of stocks and may soon weaken. The New Highs-Lows Index is another tool that compares the number of stocks hitting 52-week highs to those touching 52-week lows. This indicator can suggest a bearish or bullish market depending on whether more stocks are at lows or highs, respectively. Additionally, the S&P 500 200-Day Index measures the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average. A reading over 50% suggests that the market is generally bullish. Extreme readings on this indicator can also help traders spot overbought or oversold conditions. The Cumulative Volume Index is an example of a volume-based indicator that adds up the volume from advancing stocks and subtracts the volume from declining stocks. The result is a cumulative total that helps traders gauge overall market sentiment. Leveraging Market Breadth for Trading Decisions Traders often rely on market breadth indicators to make informed decisions. These indicators can provide early warnings of a potential drop or rise in the index. However, it is crucial to note that market breadth indicators are not perfect timing tools. They can sometimes provide premature signals or fail to predict market reversals. Market breadth should be one of the tools in a trader's arsenal, but not the only one. It is important to use these indicators in conjunction with other forms of analysis, such as price movements and economic data, to create a more comprehensive trading strategy. The Role of Market Breadth in Investor Sentiment Market breadth is closely tied to investor sentiment. A market where more stocks are advancing demonstrates confidence among investors, while a market with more declining stocks may indicate uncertainty or fear. By analysing market breadth, traders can get a sense of the prevailing mood in the market, which can be a valuable piece of information when making trading decisions. Conclusion Market breadth indicators are vital tools for traders looking to understand the underlying movements of major stock indices. These indicators can reveal divergences and confirmations that are not immediately apparent from price charts. While they should not be the sole basis for trading decisions, they provide valuable context that, when combined with price analysis and other market data, can help traders navigate the complexities of the stock market with greater confidence. By understanding and utilizing market breadth, traders are better positioned to identify potential trends and make trades that align with the overall market momentum. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Technical overview remains bullish, and retail traders’ short bias rises into heavy sell territory. Source: Bloomberg Indices Federal Reserve Market trend Nasdaq S&P 500 Technical analysis Written by: Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai Publication date: Thursday 08 February 2024 07:46 Sector performance puts tech on top Most sectors finished yesterday's session in the green, with defensives generally at the bottom. On top were tech, consumer discretionary, and communication—the exact trio needed to power the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 higher to a record close, outperforming both Dow 30 and S&P 500. It was a record close for key large-cap equity indices, with added attention on the S&P 500 as it approaches 5,000. Light on data, heavy on Fed member speak There wasn’t too much impactful economic data out of the US: the trade deficit for December was not far off forecasts, consumer credit change for the same month plummeted to just $1.56 billion after the big and unexpected jump for November, potentially signifying a tested consumer in the next phase. Weekly mortgage applications were up 3.7%. But it was heavy on central bank member speak, with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Barkin on policy "very supportive of being patient to get where we need to get to," Kugler "pleased with the disinflationary progress thus far" expecting it to continue but any stalling in that progress means holding "the target range steady at its current level for longer," and Kashkari on interest rates expecting only "two or three cuts" and that there are "compelling arguments to suggest we could be in a longer, higher rate environment going forward." Treasury yields finished the session only slightly higher, and so did real terms. Market pricing (CME's FedWatch) still anticipates the first rate cut in May after holding in March. More Fed member speak is on offer today, along with the 30-year auction after yesterday's decent 10-year results. Nasdaq technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels Its price eventually went beyond its previous 1st Resistance level, stopping out contrarian sell-after-reversals and favoring conformist buy-breakouts, even if the follow-through beyond it didn't reach its previous 2nd Resistance. The higher highs and record close have kept most of its key technical indicators bullish, and its ADX (Average Directional Movement Index) still in trending territory. In all, it remains a bullish technical overview, with added caution for conformist strategies only when buying on dips to key support levels. Source: IG IG client* and CoT** sentiment for the Nasdaq As for retail traders, they have upped their majority short bias to a heavy 67% from 63% yesterday morning, as fresher longs got enticed into closing out while shorts initiated. CoT speculators are an opposite heavy buy 65% according to last Friday’s report. Source: IG Nasdaq chart with retail and institutional sentiment Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 7am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day. **CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft results have highlighted the growing importance of AI integration. Source: Bloomberg Shares Amazon Meta Platforms Microsoft Apple Inc. Artificial intelligence Written by: Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg Publication date: Wednesday 07 February 2024 16:53 Key Takeaways: Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) have surpassed market expectations with their quarterly earnings and outlooks Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has posted its strongest revenue growth since 2022, thanks in part to the impressive performance of its Azure AI services, which continue to attract new customers. Apple Inc. (AAPL) has returned to revenue growth despite challenges in the Chinese market, while Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) faces concerns about the sustainability of its growth and the impact of price cuts on profit margins. Alphabet's enterprise cloud and workspace services have seen substantial adoption, but its ad revenue has not met expectations. The current US reporting season has seen recent earnings releases from some of the biggest names in technology, namely: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, Meta and Microsoft. These companies make up six of the ‘magnificent seven’ tech shares, with the seventh (NVIDIA) still to report. Meta, Microsoft and Amazon results impress Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) have set a high bar with their quarterly earnings and outlooks surpassing market expectations. Meta has seen a substantial uplift in profitability, announcing its maiden dividend, a move that signals confidence in its long-term revenue streams. This comes on the heels of Meta incorporating advanced AI into its algorithms, enhancing ad targeting across its suite of social apps, which has led to increased ad impressions and a higher price per ad. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has also been a standout, posting its strongest revenue growth since 2022. The tech behemoth's success is partially attributed to the impressive performance of its Azure AI services, which continue to attract new customers. The enterprise business segments of these tech giants have been particularly robust, with corporate customers investing in cloud services, software platforms, and devices to enhance their operations. Microsoft and Amazon have benefited from their cloud offerings, with AWS experiencing a 13% growth in revenue and Microsoft's cloud business growing by 20%. Apple and Tesla economic cautions Despite a mixed global economic outlook, Apple Inc. (AAPL) has managed to return to revenue growth, although it has faced challenges in the Chinese market. Meanwhile, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has been a topic of intense debate, with concerns about the sustainability of its growth in the face of potential declines in electric vehicle demand and the impact of price cuts on profit margins. Alphabet Ad revenue under pressure Alphabet's enterprise cloud and workspace services have seen substantial adoption, although its ad revenue has not met expectations. Nonetheless, Alphabet's commitment to AI innovation remains steadfast, as evidenced by the development of its new AI model, "Gemini." AI integration helping drive revenue Similarly, to Microsoft’s’ success of its Azure AI services, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), through its subsidiaries Google Workspace and Google Cloud, and Amazon with its Amazon Web Services (AWS), have made significant strides by integrating AI-powered services, which have been instrumental in driving revenue. The ongoing AI revolution is reshaping the tech landscape, with Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet and NVIDIA at the forefront. Their strategic investments in AI have not only enhanced their product offerings but have also led to more efficient operations and new revenue opportunities. However, these companies may face more regulatory challenges regarding their AI and cloud partnerships. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Trading the trend: long USD/JPY USD/JPY is seeing a minor retracement lower which could be used to enter a long trade in the direction of this year’s uptrend. We would thus like to go long USD/JPY with a stop loss below ¥145.90 and an upside target at ¥152.00. Written by: Angeline Ong | Financial Analyst, Presenter and Content Editor, London Publication date: Wednesday 07 February 2024 14:28 Previous Arabica coffee trading outcome In this week's "Trading the trend" video, Axel Rudolph reflects on his recent trades and talks about their current positions. He started by betting on the price of Arabica coffee to go up. He entered the trade when the price was around 186 and watched it climb to 194. However, things took a turn and the price went down, causing them to sell at his entry level. Current New York cotton futures trading progress Next, he moves on to his current trade in New York cotton futures. He entered at about 85.70 and are currently making a profit. To protect his gains, he raised the level at which he would sell if the price goes down, so he doesn't lose anything. He has set his sights on a target price of 90, which he sees as a strong resistance level based on previous market behavior. This week's trading opportunity For his trade this week, he plans to jump on the upward trend of the USD/JPY. He sees a temporary drop in the price as an opportunity to buy. He bases his decision on the difference in interest rates between the US and the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan has a cautious approach, while the US is more optimistic. He believes the upward trend will continue in the upcoming days and weeks, particularly if the price breaks through recent highs between 148.80 and 18.90. With all of this in mind, he suggests buying USD/JPY at its current price, and setting a level at which he would sell if the price drops further. He also set an upside target at around 152, meaning he expects the price to go up to that level. By carefully managing his trades and considering market trends, he aims to make successful trades and achieve profits. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Overnight, stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed following the fresh record levels seen on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 came within a whisker of 5000, though the Nikkei 225 managed a 2% gain. Soft Chinese data ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday kept sentiment in check overall. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected, and maintained its stance of remaining focused on the withdrawal of accommodation. European equity futures are indicating a slightly higher open, taking their cue from a positive session on Wall Street. US jobless claims are the main event scheduled for today.