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Gold looks to break higher as oil price consolidates following gains Gold is looking to make headway while oil is consolidating following its recent surge. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 26 July 2021 Gold tests trendline support The gold price dipped into the zone below $1800 last week but found buyers, providing a floor, but a firm break above the downtrend line seen since 15 July has yet to take place. It is however testing the line in early trading, and above $1815 the price takes on a more bullish view. Sellers will be shut out of the picture unless they can get the price back below $1790. Source: ProRealTime WTI at a crucial point Having surged from last week’s low the price is now edging back down, as the sequence of lower highs from earlier in the month comes back into play. A move back above $72.70 would be a bullish development, and then open the way to more gains towards $75 and $77. Sellers will look for a move back below $70 that opens the path towards the recent lows. Source: ProRealTime See opportunity on a commodity?

Indices look for further gains after recent bounce The week has begun with small losses, but the uptrends of the past few sessions are firmly intact. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 26 July 2021 FTSE 100 The FTSE 100 has fallen back from the high seen on Friday, but the bounce from last week’s low is intact. A renewed move higher heads to 7040 and then on from there, while a drop back towards 6950 and then below 6900 could signal that the bounce has run its course and that a test of 6800 is in the offing. Source: ProRealTime DAX The strong bounce from the DAX's lows of last week is still in place, despite some initial weakness overnight. This dip appears to be stabilising around the 50-hour simple moving average (SMA) of 15,583. Given the powerful rebound in risk appetite this past week it looks like the buyers still have the upper hand. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 A new record high for the S&P 500 has confirmed the bullish trend once again. Some weakness overnight seems unlikely to last, although a drop back below 4340 could signal a retracement is at hand. Source: ProRealTime

TOKYO (Reuters) - The safe-harbour yen and dollar started the week firmer against riskier currencies like the Aussie as rising COVID-19 cases and a decline in Asian equities set a cautious tone ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting this week. The yen rose about 0.5% to 81.08 per Australian dollar on Monday, while the dollar gained 0.2% to $0.7351 per Aussie, approaching an almost eight-month high of $0.72895 reached last week. Against the dollar, the yen added 0.2% to 110.32, helped by a decline in U.S. Treasury yields. The euro rose 0.1% to $1.17795, stabilizing after its drop last week to the lowest since early April at $1.1752. The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, slipped slightly to 92.833 due to pressure from the euro and yen, but was still close to last week's 3-1/2-month high of 93.194. It has gained nearly 4% from a recent low on May 25 as an improving U.S. economy bolstered the outlook for the Fed to start paring asset purchases as early as this year. Commonwealth Bank of Australia projects the dollar can continue to strengthen this week on the possibility of the Fed moving a step closer to tapering at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. "We expect the FOMC to drop 'substantial' from 'substantial further progress'," in its guidance on the necessary conditions for the labour market before removing monetary support, CBA strategist Joseph Capurso wrote in a client note. "Removing 'substantial' will signal the FOMC believes it will soon be appropriate to taper asset purchases," setting up a possible announcement of a taper in September, he said. The risk to such an outlook is the rise in COVID-19 cases in the United States, coming after the Fed at its last meeting on June 16 dropped a reference to the coronavirus as a drag on the economy. "Overall, the Fed is expected to hold a rather neutral stance before the Jackson Hole symposium in late August, while risks are biased to dovish side given the Delta variant spread," Mizuho Bank strategist Ken Cheung wrote in a report. The dollar index eked out a 0.2% gain last week, benefiting from a safe-haven bid on fears a surge in infections of the fast-spreading Delta variant could derail the global recovery, but paring those gains as strong U.S. earnings lifted stocks to record highs. The risks from the Delta variant continue to rise globally, with top infectious disease official Anthony Fauci saying some Americans may need booster shots amid new mask mandates and a surge in new cases. China reported its highest number of cases since the end of January, while new infections have also spiked in Japan, where Tokyo is currently hosting the Olympics. Australia's most populous state of New South Wales, home to Sydney, reported a rise in new COVID-19 cases on Monday despite a weeks-long stay-at-home order. Meanwhile, MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks excluding Japan sank 2% on Monday, as Chinese blue chips slumped 3.8%. However, cryptocurrencies were buoyed on Monday after London's City A.M. newspaper cited an un-named "insider" on the weekend as saying that Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is looking to accept bitcoin payments by year-end. The report followed Twitter boss Jack Dorsey's comment on Friday that the digital currency is a "big part" of the social-media firm's future. Bitcoin extended its gains from near $29,000 last week to push back to the cusp of $40,000 on Monday for the first time since mid-June. It last traded about 8.5% higher at $38,455. Smaller rival ether was last up 6.8% at $2,344.08, recovering from as low as $1,717.17 last week. By Kevin Buckland, 26th July 2021. Investing.com

Oil prices fell on Monday as concerns about fuel demand from the spread of COVID-19 variants and floods in China offset expectations of tight supplies through the rest of the year. Brent crude futures for September fell 44 cents, or 0.6%, to $73.66 a barrel by 0432 GMT while U.S. Texas Intermediate crude was at $71.62 a barrel, down 45 cents. Coronavirus cases continued to rise over the weekend with some countries posting record daily increases and extending lockdown measures that could slow oil demand. China, the world's largest crude importer, has also seen a rise in COVID-19 cases while the nation battled severe floods and a typhoon in central and eastern parts of the country. Also, Beijing's crackdown on the misuse of import quotas combined with the impact of high crude prices could see China's growth in oil imports sink to the lowest in two decades in 2021, despite an expected rise in refining rates in the second half. "The delta variant is still spreading and China has started to clamp down on teapots so their import growth would not be that much," said Avtar Sandu, a senior commodities manager at Singapore's Phillips Futures, referring to independent refiners. He added that investors are looking ahead to the next Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. oil inventories data later this week for price direction. However, strong U.S. demand and expectations of tight supplies are underpinning prices, enabling both contracts to recover from a 7% slump last Monday to mark their first gains in 2-3 weeks last week. "Bargain hunters came in droves when Brent got below $70 and the economic demand for energy looks robust," Howie Lee, an economist at Singapore's OCBC Bank said. "Demand data especially from the U.S. continues to be strong and has reduced those concerns." Global oil markets are expected to remain in deficit despite a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies to raise production through the rest of the year. The prospect of a swift return of Iranian supplies is diminishing as talks to revive a 2015 nuclear deal have been pushed back to August. Meanwhile, the United States is considering cracking down on Iranian oil sales to China as it braces for the possibility that Tehran may not return to nuclear talks or may adopt a harder line whenever it does, a U.S. official said. In the United States, the recovery in oil drilling has been modest as producers restrained spending. U.S. oil rigs rose by seven to 387 last week, their highest since April 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said on Friday. By Florence Tan, 26th July 2021. Investing.com

The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week Week commencing 26 July Chris Beauchamp’s insight US earnings season is in full flow, but we have plenty of UK news as well on the corporate front. Companies from a range of sectors provide updates, but key ones this week include FANG stocks like Apple and UK banks. Economic data is busy too, with durable goods orders in the US and the first Q2 GDP readings for the US and Germany. Plus the world’s most important central bank, the US Federal Reserve, meets to decide on policy. While no change is expected some discussion about the course of the asset purchase programme may take place. The week ahead video. Economic reports Weekly view Monday 9am – German IFO index (July): expected to rise to 102.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 3pm – US new home sales (June): sales to fall 1.2% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses Tuesday 1.30pm – US durable goods orders (June): orders to rise 2.1% MoM, and 0.8% excluding transportation orders. Markets to watch: USD crosses 3pm – US consumer confidence (July): index to fall to 125.3. Markets to watch: USD crosses Wednesday 2.30am – Australia CPI (Q2): prices to rise 1% QoQ and 4% YoY. Markets to watch: AUD crosses 7am – German GfK consumer confidence (August): expected to fall to -2. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1.30ppm – Canada CPI (June): prices to rise 0.5% MoM. Markets to watch: CAD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 23 July): stockpiles rose by 2.1 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI 7pm – FOMC rate decision: no change in policy expected, but some discussion on a change to QE may take place. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Thursday 8.55am – German unemployment rate (July): expected to hold at 5.9%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1pm – German CPI (July, preliminary): expected to rise 3.1% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US GDP (Q2, first reading), initial jobless claims (w/e 24 July): growth expected to be 8% QoQ from 6.4%, claims to fall to 390K from 419K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – US pending home sales (June): expected to fall 1% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses Friday 12.30am – Japan unemployment rate (June): forecast to fall to 2.9%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses 7am – German GDP (Q2, flash): growth to be 1.5% from -1.8% QoQ and 9.2% from -3.1% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 10am – eurozone inflation (July), GDP (Q2, flash): prices to rise 2.6% YoY and GDP to grow 1.5% QoQ and 12.6% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US personal income & spending (June), PCE prices: spending to rise 0.5% and income to rise 0.2% MoM, while PCE prices rise 0.6% MoM and 4.2% YoY. Markets to watch: USD crosses 2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (July): index to edge down to 66. Markets to watch: USD crosses 3pm – US Michigan confidence (July, final): expected to fall to 81.3. Markets to watch: USD crosses Company announcements Monday 26 July Tuesday 27 July Wednesday 28 July Thursday 29 July Friday 30 July Full-year earnings Half/ Quarterly earnings Ryanair, Tesla Reach, Reckitt Benckiser, Apple, Microsoft, AMD, Alphabet ITV, British American Tobacco, Barclays, Aston Martin Lagonda, GSK, Rio Tinto, Deutsche Bank, Facebook, Boeing National Express, Diageo, Weir Group, BT Group, Anglo American, BAE Systems, Schroders, AstraZeneca, Compass, Rentokil Initial, Lloyds Banking Group, Smith & Nephew, Amazon Pearson, Natwest, Caterpillar, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Procter & Gamble Trading update Cranswick Sage Group Q3 TS Dividends FTSE 100: Royal Mail, SSE FTSE 250: Qinetiq, Monks Inv Trust, Bankers Inv Trust, BB Healthcare Trust, Hipgnosis Songs Fund Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days. Index adjustments Monday 26 July Tuesday 27 July Wednesday 28 July Thursday 29 July Friday 30 July Monday 2 August FTSE 100 2.51 Australia 200 Wall Street US 500 0.02 0.04 0.52 0.34 0.02 0.00 Nasdaq 0.37 0.25 Netherlands 25 0.14 EU Stocks 50 China H-Shares Singapore Blue Chip 0.10 Hong Kong HS50 South Africa 40 Italy 40 Japan 225 1.5

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage: Indices: Despite Wall St indices all either ending at or intraday at record highs, markets in Europe expected down after China tech hammered as authorities clamp down, HSI at 7mth lows FX: Watching EURUSD still challenging 177.72 support ahead of Fed meeting on Wednesday. GBPUSD little move despite EY Item Club saying UK economy growing at fastest in 80yrs Equities: Earnings – RYA flies on a FY loss of €272.6mln as expected. PHIA Q2 €532mln weaker than forecast BUT has €1.5bln buyback. Awaiting MC and TSLA later today Commods: Gold up, Nickel at 5mth highs, Copper challenges 9635 resistance. Oil down after strongest 3-day run since March https://community.ig.com/igtv/

Hi, @PLawlor thanks for your review. The platform you’ll use for automated trading will depend on your trading preferences. At IG, we have several automated trading options available to our clients, which are ProRealTime, MetaTrader 4 and APIs. Kindly visit this page https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-platforms/compare-trading-platforms for more information to compare features on the trading platforms that offer automated trading. All the best - Mongi

A better than expected trading statement from Vodafone is met with investor favour. Source: Bloomberg Shares Vodafone M-Pesa Revenue Europe Money Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Friday 23 July 2021 Vodafone Q1 2021 Trading Statement Vodafone the Europe, Africa, Middle East and Asia Pacific telecommunications provider has seen revenue rebound in quarter one (Q1) 2022, as Covid-19 restrictions ease, signaling improving economic conditions particularly in Europe. The group has also highlighted gains in its African operations, most notably from the M-Pesa mobile money offering. For Q1 (of fiscal year 2022), Vodafone has guided via a trading statement that revenue had increased by 5.7% year on year (YoY) to €11.1 billion. Service revenue for the group increased by 3.3% over the period Vodafone has also guided that for the financial year 2022 (FY22), the company expects to achieve full-year targets of €15 billion to €15.4 billion in adjusted earnings as well as a minimum of €5.2 billion in free cash flow. Find out more on how to buy, sell or short Vodafone shares. Vodafone performance across Europe mostly improved In Europe, the group has managed to achieve marginal growth of 1.4% in its operations across Germany. The UK and Spanish markets saw a quarter on quarter (q/q) return to growth, while the group’s Italian operations saw a revenue contraction of around 3.6%. Vodafone’s mobile money offering in Africa gains traction In countries Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, Lesotho and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the group has seen significant growth through its M-Pesa platform, which allows users to facilitate peer to peer transactions. The platform has seen a surge in usage with transactions via the platform having increased by 45% to 4.5 million from the prior year’s comparative period. This service is now looking to extend into new financial products such as loans, payrolls and savings. Vodafone share price – technical analysis Source: IG charts The share price of Vodafone has reacted favorably to the Q1 trading statement release, rebounding off the 112.30 support level. The price reversal off support is accompanied by the Stochastic oscillator moving out of oversold territory. These are short term bullish indications suggestive of continued gains with 131.80 the next upside resistance target considered. In summary Q1 2022 revenue increased by 5.7% year on year to €11.1 billion Service revenue for the group increased by 3.3% over the period. Vodafone has seen revenue growth in across most of Europe, with the exception of Italy In the group’s African operations, the M-Pesa mobile money platform has seen a 45% increase in transactions The share price of Vodafone is currently rebounding off support and from oversold territory

With Q2 earnings season in full swing, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and Coca-Cola provide us with potential trading opportunities. This article looks at some of the big movers off the back of recent earnings announcements to try and find stocks that seem to provide a good trading opportunity. Typically, earnings announcements and trading statements will drive a shift or enhancement of market sentiment. While many see earnings as a significant risk when holding a stock, placing trades in the wake of such events allows for greater confidence that all market knowledge has been factored into current prices. Netflix Netflix shares have been on the back foot after an earnings release that saw the firm fall short on earnings. That decline came despite the fact that the streaming service beat estimates on both revenues and paid subscriber numbers. Interestingly, this pullback brings a potential buying opportunity, with price falling into the 76.4% Fibonacci support level of $502.22. The continued creation of higher lows over the course of the past year brings a strong potential that price will rise from here. As such, a bullish view holds unless price falls back below the most recent swing-low of $482.21. Source: ProRealTime Johnson & Johnson Johnson & Johnson managed to beat estimates for their second quarter, with a massive jump in net income coming thanks to a 27.1% rise in sales. Looking at the chart, we can see that price is approaching the apex of an ascending triangle formation. The ongoing uptrend points towards a bullish breakout before long, with a fall back below $165.32 required to bring a more bearish short-term outlook. Until that happens, this gradual ascent looks likely to provide a bullish breakout through the $171.44 resistance threshold. Source: ProRealTime Coca-Cola Coca-Cola shares have pushed upwards after the firm posted better-than-expected earnings and revenues figures for the second-quarter. With revenues topping their 2019 level, investors were cheered by improved forecasts for the full-year earnings per share (EPS) and revenues. Nonetheless, the pop seen on Wednesday could represent a peak for now, with the recent trend seeing an ascending trendline limit upside moves. However, whether we see a short-term pullback or not, the uptrend and positive earnings report highlight the fact that this stock remains attractive as long as price remains above the $53.55 swing-low. Source: ProRealTime Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 23 July 2021

The dollar pushed higher in early European trading Friday, with attention turning to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting after the European Central Bank’s dovish performance on Thursday. At 2:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher at 92.865, but still below Wednesday’s 3 1/2-month high of 93.194. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 110.28, GBP/USD fell 0.1% to 1.3754, despite retail sales rising 0.5% in July, more than expected, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.1% to 0.7370. Additionally, EUR/USD was flat at 1.1770, having slipped during Thursday’s session after the ECB strengthened its forward guidance on interest rates, tying them more closely to inflation, suggesting an even longer period of steady or lower policy interest rates. “The ECB’s Staff currently projects that inflation will reach just 1.5% by the very end of its horizon, which runs until 2023,” said analysts at ABN Amro, in a note. “In addition, the trajectory of inflation is very modestly upward sloping … This would be consistent with policy rates remaining where they are through 2024.” There are a slew of surveys on the manufacturing and services sectors in both Europe and the U.S. later Friday, which are expected to show a slight softening of activity, albeit from high levels, but the market's next major focus is likely to be the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. Coronavirus cases have started to rise again in the regions of the U.S. where there has been a low vaccination pickup since the previous meeting in mid-June, but the meeting is still expected to produce some advancement in the discussions for a tapering of stimulus. Also of interest, the Bank of Russia meets later Friday and is expected to lift its benchmark interest rate as it struggles to combat surging inflation. The central bank has already raised rates by 125 basis points this year. But with annual inflation at a five-year high of 6.5%, way above the 4% target, a further hike of as much as 100 basis points is likely. At 2:55 AM ET, USD/RUB traded 0.4% lower at 73.744, with the ruble remaining one of the top four emerging-markets performers this year. By Peter Nurse, 23 July 2021. Investing.com

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD expected to reverse lower after retracement EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD look likely to head lower following a period of counter-trend gains. Video link click here. Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 23 July 2021 EUR/USD grinds lower after brief ECB pop EUR/USD managed to pop into a brief 76.4% retracement after yesterday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, providing a fresh selling opportunity for those with a keen eye. The downtrend does still remain intact despite that brief spike, with the price falling short of the key $1.1851 swing-high. With that in mind, further downside looks likely from here. A break up through the $1.1851 level would be required to negate that bearish view. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD rolling over after upward retracement GBP/USD is on the back foot this morning, with the pair looking at risk after a period of gains seen throughout Wednesday and Thursday. The downtrend remains in play unless price breaks up through the $1.391 level. As such, there is a good chance we see the bears come back into play following this 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Source: ProRealTime AUD/USD weakening from trendline resistance AUD/USD has similarly been trying to regain ground of late, with price rising into a somewhat mid-sized retracement level. Despite that, we have seen a move into a descending trendline, which does highlight the potential to move lower once again here. There is a good chance that we will see the bears come back into play here, with any short-term upside perceived as a retracement unless the price rises through the $0.7503 swing-high. Source: ProRealTime

Gold price attempts to bounce as oil maintains upward move Gold is aiming to recover lost ground while oil is targeting further gains. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 23 July 2021 Gold The continued defence of the area around $1800 points to a possible recovery for gold that will target $1830 and higher. It will be hard to develop a more bearish view unless the price does manage to clear $1790. Source: ProRealTime WTI Like indices, crude seems set for further gains, with some resistance from the July high unlikely to last long. Above $73 the price targets the month’s high at $76.47. Source: ProRealTime

Indices’ rally to continue into another day Indices on both sides of the Atlantic are still in strong form, as the bounce in the wake of Monday’s selloff enters its fourth day. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 23 July 2021 FTSE 100 Further gains seem likely here as the FTSE 100 looks to move on above 7000 and target 7200. Having bounced from the low of the week it looks like further upside is on the way, with the bearish view out of the picture unless we see a reversal back below 6900. Source: ProRealTime DAX Having recovered the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 15,567 and moved on above it, the DAX now targets 15,800 and new record highs. The uptrend has reasserted itself strongly this week, and has cancelled out the nascent bearish view from Monday’s session. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 New record highs for the S&P 500 seem likely after the bounce from earlier in the week, cancelling out the bearish outlook unless a reversal below 4260 takes place. Source: ProRealTime

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (AMD) performance over the past year came in at 55.6%. Can its upcoming Q2 results drive further upside? Source: Bloomberg Shares Advanced Micro Devices United States Central processing unit Intel Personal computer Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Thursday 22 July 2021 When does AMD report earnings? Advanced Micro Devices Inc (All Sessions) is set to release its Q2 financial results on 27 July, after market closes. At the time of writing, Refinitiv estimates its Q2 earnings per share to be US$0.54, a 3.8% increase from the previous quarter. What to expect AMD has largely benefited from the Covid-19 pandemic, seeing strong demand across all its products in the likes of consoles, PCs (CPUs and GPUs) and server CPUs. Revenue from Q3 2020 saw a surge, which continues into 2021, although one may note that growth sequentially may have slowed slightly as economies shift towards normalisation. In the PC space, its revenue is growing significantly faster than the overall market, potentially suggesting some gains in market share against its competitors such as Intel Corp (All Sessions). Its strength in seven nanometre-based processors, manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd - ADR, may continue to draw a competitive edge from Intel with its focus on the premium segments, rather than low-end units. This may have been reflected in its gross margins, which have increased steadily over the past three quarters, a potential result of higher average selling prices for its premium products. Investors will be on watch for whether the growth momentum continues into the upcoming results, as demand continues to outstrip supply. Revenue breakdown and overall gross margin Source: AMD Management expects the upcoming Q2 revenue to be approximately US$3.6 billion, plus or minus US$100 million, which marks an approximately 86% growth year-on-year and 4% increase from the previous quarter. AMD’s recent approval to conduct US$4 billion in share repurchases may be a validation of management’s confidence in the businesses growth ahead, as operating cashflow seems to notice a huge improvement since Q2 2020. A further boost in cashflow in the subsequent quarters may point towards more capital distribution back to shareholders, after its first major step in share purchases. Want to trade AMD? Create an IG trading account or log in to your existing account to get started now. Cash from operating activities Source: AMD For growth catalysts ahead, AMD has recently received an unconditional EU antitrust approval for its US$35 billion bid for Xilinx Inc. A successful acquisition may boost AMD’s competitiveness against peers such as Intel Corporation and NVIDIA Corp, at a time where Nvidia is facing some resistance from authorities in its acquisition of ARM Ltd. While the impact from the potential deal may not materialise in the coming quarter, expectations were for the acquisition to close by the end of the year, which will be immediately accretive to AMD’s margins and EPS through the synergies. The forward guidance in the upcoming results may be expected to remain positive, as AMD begins to ramp up production of its next-generation Instinct GPU in the second half of the year to support its push into high-performance-computing, including Frontier International Inc (potentially the world’s fastest supercomputer). This may continue to be reiterated in the upcoming earnings call. Valuation AMD’s current forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 34.0, commanding a significant premium over the semiconductor industry average of 17.2 and overall technology sector of 17.6. The valuation premium may come as AMD’s forward-looking growth may be higher than its peers, with its five-year historical earnings per share growth at 39.8%, compared to semiconductors industry average of 15.9%. Its revenue growth of 19.6% for the past five years also towers over the industry average of 5.0%. Company name Market cap in USD Forward P/E EV/EBITDA Long-term EPS growth Advanced Micro Devices Inc 104.4 billion 34.6 46.1 32.4% Qualcomm 157.6 billion 16.5 15.6 27.3% Nvidia Corporation 452.6 billion 43.9 63.1 26.8% Skyworks Solutions, Inc 31.1 billion 17.5 17.1 16.9% NXP Semiconductors N.V. 52.4 billion 18.5 21.3 16.8% Intel Corporation 222.0 billion 12.0 6.8 10.0% Texas Instruments Inc. 171.9 billion 24.2 22.6 10.0% Broadcom Inc 192.0 billion 15.9 17.1 - Currently, the stock has 25 ‘buy’ recommendations, 15 ‘holds’ and three ‘sells’. The Bloomberg 12-month consensus target price of US$102.35 suggests a potential 17.5% upside from current price. Technical analysis From its technicals, AMD is finding support at an upward trendline, which has connected a series of higher price lows since May. This follows with a slight rebound off its 200-day MA. Near-term, the US$90.00 may be a resistance level to overcome, where a previous horizontal support line may now serve as resistance. Near-term support to watch may remain as the upward trendline, whereby a break below it may point to a shift in sentiments. Source: IG charts Trade AMD with IG Create an IG trading account or log in to your existing account to get started now.

European stock markets are expected to open higher Friday, ending a volatile week on a positive note, helped by a supportive tone from the European Central Bank. At 2:10 AM ET (0610 GMT), the DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.2% higher, CAC 40 futures in France climbed 0.4% and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 0.4%. The ECB, as was largely expected, did not adjust its benchmark interest rate or its commitment to purchase 1.85 trillion euro in bonds through March 2022 at its latest meeting on Thursday. However, it did tie its new forward guidance on interest rates more closely to inflation, suggesting they aren't likely to rise anytime soon. “With an inflation projection currently of 1.4% YoY for 2023 and the new forward guidance, interest rates will remain low for even longer,” said analysts at ING, in a note. This policy update suggests the ECB is now one of the more dovish members of the central bank club, likely supporting the recovery the market has made from Monday’s rout following concerns surging Covid numbers, caused by the highly-transmissible delta variant, would stall the nascent global economic recovery. The tech sector is likely to be in focus in Europe Friday following strong second-quarter reports by U.S. social media giants Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) and Snap (NYSE:SNAP) after the close on Wall Street Thursday. Thales (PA:TCFP), Europe's largest defense electronics company, raised its full-year revenue target after posting first-half revenues up by 9.8% on a like-for-like basis. Other earnings from the likes of Signify (AS:LIGHT) and Lonza (SIX:LONN) will be of interest, while U.K. telecoms giant Vodafone (NASDAQ:VOD) issued a trading update ahead of expectations. The economic data slate includes a slew of surveys on the manufacturing and services sectors in Europe later Friday, which are expected to show a slight softening of activity, albeit from high levels. Additionally, U.K. retail sales rose 0.5% on the month in July, a welcome improvement after the previous month’s 1.4% slump, climbing 9.7% on the year. Elsewhere, oil prices edged lower Thursday, stabilizing after a volatile trading week. The crude market has posted gains of around 8% over the last three days, largely recouping Monday’s slump, when sentiment was hit by worries over rising Covid cases and an agreement between top producers to add supply. At 2:10 AM ET, U.S. crude futures traded 0.4% lower at $71.64 a barrel, while the Brent contract fell 0.4% to $73.50. Additionally, gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,803.35/oz, while EUR/USD traded largely flat at 1.1769. By Peter Nurse, 23 July 2021. Investing.com

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage: Japan Olympics starts today as parts of the country are in a state of emergency because of Covid. No spectators in any of the events Indices: Expecting a slightly stronger start in Europe after a record high for Nasdaq and S&P currently 14pts from a record high Equtities: Earnings last night - TWTR up 9% SNAP up 13% INTC down 2%. UK earnings today VOD & PFD. DiDi hits new low in US after a slew of punishments by China FX: EURUSD breaks 117.72 again, will it hold today? Watching GBPUSD after confidence data back to pre-pandemic levels, awaiting retail sales Commods: Oil up for the first week in three. Nickel at 5mth high up after TSLA signs supply deal with BHP. Iron Ore breaks support https://community.ig.com/igtv/

Find out what to expect from Amazon’s earnings results, how they will affect Amazon share price, and how to trade Amazon’s earnings. Source: Bloomberg Shares Amazon Price Bollinger Bands Market sentiment E-commerce Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 22 July 2021 Amazon share price: forecasts from Q2 results It’s been a decent year thus far for Amazon’s share price, though nowhere near as good as last year when the Covid-19 pandemic forced more into making purchases online and ensuring the e-commerce giant was a clear beneficiary. The reflation trade has relatively outperformed since the start of the year, and that has meant the gains since January for the tech giant lag relatively. But, while companies tied to the reopening trade may have enjoyed decent share price gains, it’s been a struggle on the earnings front. It’s here where Amazon hasn’t been one to worry about, consistently beating estimates by sizable amounts. Expectations (figures according to finance.yahoo.com) have been moved higher for the second quarter (Q2) from a previous $9.54 to $12.22, which means if the tech giant can match last quarter’s stellar $15.79 results and it’ll have already beaten estimates comfortably. Revenue has been on a consistent climb, a theme expected to persist and aided by Prime Day held earlier this year (as opposed to Q4 2020, and Q3 prior). Its Q3 outlook will also be of great importance and will be the first quarter without Jeff Bezos at the helm. Most analysts recommend a buy to a strong buy, by a big margin, with the average price target well above where its share price currently resides. Trading Amazon’s Q2 results: technical overview and trading strategies As always, technicals in the face of fundamental events hold less relevance, but a glance at the chart and key technicals show a bull trend technical overview. Further, prices reflect the following: They are well above the key moving averages (MAs) on the weekly chart A positive directional movement index (DMI) An average directional movement index (ADX) that isn’t just showing an ongoing propensity to trend but with a reading that’s rising They are retracing partially off the upper end of the Bollinger Bands However, the lack of follow-through beyond key levels on some weeks and the partial pullback has meant that its overview has been stalling somewhat, at times giving contrarian sell strategies an edge. With any significant fundamental event where volatility could rise, levels are less likelier to hold, and could result in a breach or break when the figures are released. Those expecting the technical overview to remain bullish, and fresh highs in the price, can consider conformist buy strategies either buying on the breach of a level to the upside or buying but after a reversal on a break in key support levels. Those expecting the technical overview to stall further, if not suffer, can entertain contrarian sell strategies by either selling at the resistance levels (though with increased volatility ideally after a reversal) or selling at support levels on a breakout. Learn more on how to buy, sell and short Amazon shares Source: IG Amazon weekly chart with DMI, ADX, MA, and Bollinger bands Source: IG charts Amazon weekly chart with IG’s client sentiment Source: IG charts IG client sentiment* and short interest for Amazon shares When it comes to sentiment amongst IG clients, it has been a consistent extreme buy bias, usually above 90% (blue-dotted line in the above weekly chart), and in turn significant beneficiaries of the latest bullish moves even after factoring in prices partially retracing off of record highs last week. And, they have upped that majority long bias from 91% to 94% as of this morning. Short interest (according to shortsqueeze.com) shows a very small amount as a percent of float, at only 1.04% and where the number of shares shorted – 4,520,000 – has dropped from 4,830,000 prior. Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day. Client sentiment on the weekly chart (blue-dotted line) is calculated at the start of the week.

The Clover Health share price is down 50% year to date as the company finds itself under a SEC investigation and loses SPAC appeal. Source: Bloomberg Special-purpose acquisition company Health care Company Investment Chamath Palihapitiya United States Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Thursday 22 July 2021 Who is Clover Health Investments Corporation? Clover Health Investments Corp, is a healthcare technology company providing medicare advantage (MA) insurance plans to seniors. The groups offering includes hospital coverage, doctor visits, drug coverage, vision, dental, and hearing coverage. The group also offers a software platform called the Clover Assistant, provide American seniors with highly affordable, 'obvious' healthcare plans. The company’s flagship software provides physicians with data-driven, personalised insights at the point of care. Is Clover Health a SPAC? Clover’s listed debut was through a merger with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp III late in 2020 Why has the Clover Health share price under pressure? A share price surge in the middle of the year (2021) appears to have dovetailed with moves in so called ‘meme’ and ‘SPAC’ stocks. The unprecedented gains can largely be attributed to speculative investments from retail traders coordinated on forums such as Reddit (WallStreetBets). These short term gains were however quickly unwound. The Clover Health share price is down more than 50% year to date (as of 21 July 2021). The company boasts exciting propositions to help better a widely criticised US healthcare system, although the group remains unprofitable at present. While the company originally forecast ambitious membership numbers in 2021, these numbers have been revised lower as the year has progressed. Clover Health is now also under investigation by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on allegations that the company and its promoter, Chamath Palihapitiya, misled investors while promoting the business. Clover Health share price – technical analysis Source: IG charts The share price of Clover Health has been in a sharp downtrend since June this year. The aggressive decline now sees its historical low at 6.20 as the next support target from the move. The Stochastic labouring in oversold territory is suggestive that short-term traders should not look to bet on a rebound just yet from current levels. Traders hoping for a rebound might prefer to see the price at least starting to trade above the dotted trend line on our chart, accompanied by a sharp move out of oversold territory. Summary Clover Health is a healthcare technology company providing MA insurance plans to seniors The group also offers a software platform called the Clover Assistant, provide American seniors with highly affordable, ‘obvious’ healthcare plans Clover’s listed debut was through a merger with SPAC Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp III late in 2020 The unprecedented gains mid-year can largely be attributed to speculative investments from retail traders coordinated on forums such as Reddit (WallStreetBets) The share price is down more than 50% year to date (as of 21 July 2021) Clover is under investigation by the SEC on allegations that the company and its promoter, Chamath Palihapitiya, misled investors The share price has been in a sharp downtrend since June 2021

Investing.com - Bitcoin rebounded strongly yesterday and last night, after spending approximately 24 hours below the key psychological threshold of $ 30,000, peaking at $ 32,800 yesterday, after an increase of more than 9% in about 15 hours. Bitcoin's gains yesterday morning could only be explained by a rebound against cheap buying after Bitcoin fell below $ 30,000, but they were then heightened by an intervention by Elon Musk, the boss of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) (NASDAQ: TSLA ). On the occasion of the B World conference on cryptocurrencies which was also attended by Jack Dorsey, the boss of Twitter (NYSE:TWTR), and Cathie Wood, the manager of Ark Invest, Musk certainly declared that Tesla will undoubtedly accept Bitcoin as a means of payment again, thanks to the growing proportion of renewable energies used by Bitcoin mining. Elon Musk, Tesla and Space X have invested in Bitcoin He also confirmed that he owns Bitcoins in a personal capacity, along with Tesla (which we already knew) and Space X (which was expected but not confirmed). "I do own Bitcoin, Tesla owns bitcoin, SpaceX owns bitcoin, and I personally own some Ethereum and Dogecoin of course." He also assured that these investments are there for the long term: "We don't sell bitcoin, I don't sell anything personally, and SpaceX doesn't sell bitcoin either," he said. “If the price of bitcoin goes down, I lose money. I can pump but I don't dump,” Musk said. “I absolutely don't believe in pushing the price up and selling or anything like that. I would love to see bitcoin succeed,” he also said. While there were other factors behind yesterday's Bitcoin rebound, these comments by Elon Musk undoubtedly helped Bitcoin. Despite everything, the graphical context calls for caution, as Bitcoin has failed to maintain above $ 32,000, and a downtrend line visible in hourly data since June 29 is currently located towards $ 33,000, a threshold that must therefore be crossed for the technical profile of BTC / USD to really improve. Investing.com Cryptocurrency News 2021-07-22

McDonald’s are expected to post another set of bumper earnings, with the Q2 results predicted to show further growth despite wider struggles in the industry. Source: Bloomberg Shares McDonald's Stock Fast food Food COVID-19 pandemic Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 22 July 2021 When is McDonald’s earning’s date? McDonald's reports earnings on Wednesday 28 July. McDonald’s earnings – what to expect McDonald’s comes into this latest earnings season with the stock trading around record-highs, with having enjoyed a welcome recovery throughout 16-months since the March 2020 Covid-19 pandemic lows. Despite the volatility and worries evident throughout the world in the face of ongoing Covid-19 restrictions, the fast food giant has remained on a strong footing thanks to its delivery and drive-through model. That ability to outperform at a time when their competitors have struggled, does provide hope that the firm will have been able to gain market share and expand in the face of wider struggles. McDonald’s are expected to report revenues of $5.6 billion, up 48% compared with quarter two (Q2) 2020. Meanwhile, earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise 320% to $2.11. With Q2 2020 marking the worst quarter of the pandemic, this report promises to deliver some impressive year-on-year (YoY) figures thanks to the base effects involved. However, aside from those annual comparables, forecasts also point towards quarter-on-quarter (q/q) growth for sales, revenues, pre-tax profit, and EPS. Importantly, the notion that McDonald’s has taken advantage of their relative strength through the past year can be highlighted by expectations of a record number of franchised and company owned restaurants. McDonald’s earnings – valuation and broker ratings At 34 times earnings and with a yield of 2.20%, McDonald’s is evidently a mature stock that perhaps doesn’t offer the kind of value other less developed companies do. However, it is a trustworthy and stable name that has a proven track record that estimates signal should continue. McDonald’s remains popular with brokers, with 29 ‘strong buy’ or ‘buy’ recommendations and nine ‘holds’, with no sell recommendations. McDonald’s shares – technical analysis The McDonald’s chart highlights what a solid performer this is, with each post-surge retracement period providing relatively shallow pullbacks to reflect the stability associated with the stock. The latest period of consolidation has seen the stock trade within $224.70 and $237.86 for much of the past three-months. That range provides us with a key area which needs to be broken to bring a sign that we are going to move into a more directional phase. Certainly the preference is for a bullish breakout given the uptrend in play. With that in mind, a break below $224.70 would signal a deeper retracement of the rally from $200.90 rather than a wider reversal signal for the stock. Source: ProRealTime A reliable performer looking to go from strength to strength McDonald’s does remain a consistent performer despite the perceived shift towards healthy food options. While the pandemic hurt many in the sector, this report is expected to highlight how the fast food giant has taken advantage to further solidify its position at the top of the food chain.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD muted as USD/JPY moves higher Today’s ECB meeting could provoke some volatility in euro pairs, while USD/JPY has benefited from revived risk appetite. Source: Bloomberg Forex Euro United States dollar USD/JPY Japanese yen Pound sterling Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 22 July 2021 EUR/USD cautious ahead of ECB Today’s the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting could well provoke some volatility, with a more hawkish view bolstering EUR/USD and helping it to make further headway after stabilising above $1.175. A move higher targets $1.188 and then on to $1.194. A renewed bearish view requires a move back below $1.175. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD struggles to bounce GBP/USD witnessed a small recovery yesterday, bouncing back above $1.36, and recovering the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) $1.37. Further, gains head towards $1.38 and then $1.39, the latter being the peak from mid-month. For now, the bearish view is weakened, and would need a move back below $1.365 to suggest a new move lower is beginning. Source: ProRealTime USD/JPY makes further gains The recovery of USD/JPY continues, with the price rallying over the past two sessions and bolstering the bullish view. Yesterday saw the price move back above trendline resistance from the July peak, suggesting further bullish momentum is at hand, targeting ¥111.00 and then ¥111.65. Source: ProRealTime This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Gold declines as oil price makes headway Gold is still edging lower but oil is enjoying strong gains. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 22 July 2021 The gold price continues to drop back, although without much enthusiasm. A move below $1795 is still needed to develop a more bearish view, while a recovery above $1810 would begin to suggest another push towards $1830 is in the offing. Source: ProRealTime Brent Yesterday’s sharp rebound carried the price back to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $71.99, and was accompanied by a bullish stochastic crossover which reinforces the bullish view and the higher low from earlier in this week. Further gains head towards trendline resistance from the July high. The bearish view has been negated with Wednesday’s bounce for the time being. Source: ProRealTime This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Indices still looking for further gains after recovery Wednesday’s rally solidified the bounce seen on Tuesday, and overall further gains are expected. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 22 July 2021 FTSE 100 The FTSE 100 has reclaimed all its losses from Monday and is still looking to make further headway. The bearish view is now firmly cancelled out thanks to the gains of the past two days as 7040 and then 7200 come into view. Intraday dips will continue to be buying opportunities so long as the price holds above 6950. Source: ProRealTime DAX The DAX is now targeting the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 15,564 once again, and from there the previous record highs come into view. The strong bounce of the past three days restores the uptrend, and leaves the bearish view out of the picture for the time being. Source: ProRealTime Dow After the swift drop and equally swift recovery the Dow is back on course for new record highs, supported by a bullish stochastic crossover from an already-high level. Now 35,000 and higher comes into view, as the brief shakeout and dip to the 100-day SMA (33,933) prompts more buyers to enter. Source: ProRealTime See opportunity on an index? This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asia's stock markets headed for their best day in two months on Thursday though growth-sensitive currencies struggled to rally, pointing to nagging doubts about the recovery as investors looked to the European Central Bank for their next cue. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was last up just over 1%, its largest daily jump since late May, with markets green from Seoul to Sydney. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. Asia's positive mood followed a rebound on Wall Street though S&P 500 futures were flat during the session suggesting the rally's momentum is fading. FTSE futures rose 0.1% and Euro STOXX 50 futures were up 0.4%. There was no obvious catalyst for the recent rebound in stocks, or for the drawdown on Friday and Monday, though a study on Wednesday showed both Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) vaccines were effective against the Delta coronavirus variant. "Every now and then investors look for reasons to take some profits off and that's what we saw," said Jun Bei Liu, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners in Sydney. "The market suddenly became worried about the Delta variant and how it might affect the path to recovery," she said. "But what we have compared with 12 months ago is quite a few viable vaccines...eventually we will be coming out of this and we are much closer to the end than we were 12 months ago." Hong Kong led Asia's gains with banks HSBC and Standard Chartered (LON:STAN) off multi-month lows to lift the Hang Seng by 1.7%. Heavily-indebted Chinese property developer Evergrande jumped about 9% after it said it had resolved legal disputes with a lender. Yet elsewhere risk-sensitive assets found the going tough, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars weighed down by lockdowns while the U.S. dollar hovered close to year-to-date highs on the euro. The dollar index sat at 92.770, off Wednesday's three-month peak of 93.194 and the euro was steady just above recent lows at $1.1796. The safe-haven yen nursed small losses across the board. ON LAGARDE WATCH With a data calendar bare on Thursday, save for U.S. jobless claims, the European Central Bank's policy-setting decision, due at 1145 GMT, and the subsequent press conference from President Christine Lagarde are the main focus for markets. Lagarde infused traders with a sense of anticipation after flagging an adjustment to the bank's rates guidance to reflect a new and more flexible inflation-targeting strategy. Any changes to the pace or outlook for bond purchases will also be closely parsed. "Overall we expect the message to be dovish and we are tactically short euro (vs yen) into the meeting," said RBC Capital Markets' chief currency strategist Adam Cole. Rates markets idled in Asia, with trade thinned by Tokyo's holiday, leaving the yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries close to Wednesday highs at 1.2884%. Investors have one eye on a brewing partisan showdown in Washington over the U.S. debt ceiling, as the U.S. Treasury is projected to exhaust its borrowing authority in October, which put upward pressure on short-end rates overnight. In commodity markets, oil hung on to most of Wednesday's sharp price rise, its biggest one-day gain in three months. Brent crude futures were last 0.4% softer at $71.94 a barrel, but had gained more than 4% on Wednesday. Gold was steady at $1,800 an ounce and cryptocurrencies were firm after bouncing from lows when Tesla boss Elon Musk said the carmaker would likely restart accepting bitcoin payments after due diligence on its energy use. Bitcoin last bought $31,928. By Tom Westbrook, 22 July 2021. Investing.com

FRANKFURT (Reuters) -The European Central Bank is all but certain to promise an even longer period of stimulus on Thursday to make good on its commitment to boost inflation, but the debate among policymakers is likely to be tense and no new measures will be announced. The Governing Council will meet for the first time since the ECB unveiled a tweaked inflation target earlier this month, the culmination of an 18-month strategic review of its roles in an array of areas from inflation to climate change. Among its conclusions, it said longer periods of ultra-low inflation such as the current one require "especially forceful or persistent" support -- an ambiguous formulation that is proving difficult to convert into actual policy. Rate-setters squabbled in early July over how to tailor their policy guidance to fit that commitment and eventually put off making any change in order to maintain unanimous support for the ambitious new strategy document. The same differences are set to resurface on Thursday and conservative policymakers like Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann are unlikely to relent, so ECB chief Christine Lagarde will either have to compromise or forego her desire for unanimity. This forward guidance is vital as it will signal the ECB's approach to fundamental decisions that must be made at coming meetings, including how to wind down its 1.85 trillion euro ($2.18 trillion) pandemic support package and whether to ramp up more traditional support measures as it does so. The core of the debate is whether the ECB should try to push inflation temporarily above its 2% target after a decade of misses, a politically risky exercise for inflation-wary Germans who are already skeptical about the ECB's stimulus efforts. Inflation in Germany is already set to surpass 2% this year and it is way higher than that in parts of Central and Eastern Europe that do not use the euro. In Hungary, the central bank said on Thursday it would continue raising rates until inflation returns near its 3% policy target. Signaling a potential compromise, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel argued that actual consumer price growth -- not just expectations -- would need to rise before the ECB tightens policy, and that inflation overshoots would be a sign of patience rather than a goal. "Higher inflation prospects need to be visibly reflected in actual underlying inflation dynamics before they warrant a more fundamental reassessment of the medium-term inflation outlook," Schnabel, who is German, said this month. Markets have already started to position for a more patient ECB. The first ECB rate hike since the euro zone debt crisis is priced in for 2024 and the euro (EUR=) hovered just below $1.18 on Thursday after falling steadily since late May. The ECB expects inflation in the euro zone to hit 1.9% this year before falling back to 1.5% in 2022 and 1.4% the year after. POLICY MOVES The new guidance will set the stage for a series of decisions, with the first, on the future of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP), possibly coming as soon as September. Conservative policymakers argue that the COVID-19 emergency is winding down so the ECB needs to give up its extraordinary powers and revert to more traditional measures, bound by stricter rules and a narrower focus on getting inflation back to target. "We suspect that there will have to be compromises between doves and hawks," Pictet strategist Frederik Ducrozet said. "One possibility is that the PEPP is phased out and wrapped up entirely by March 2022 while the Asset Purchase Programme is expanded by the end of 2021 to compensate for lingering downside risks." Another possible compromise is to maintain some but not all of the flexibility of the emergency bond buys. Under the PEPP, the ECB can buy bonds wherever it deems it necessary and without preset volume quotas. The longer-established APP, however, requires purchases in proportion to the size of each of the 19 euro zone economies, known as the capital key, at pre-set volumes, and excludes heavily-indebted Greece because its credit rating is too low. BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP) economist Luigi Speranza expects some additional flexibility to be carried beyond the pandemic. "This would imply at the very least flexibility on size such as a commitment to purchase 'at least' a certain amount of bonds," he said. The ECB is also expected to change how it communicates policy, with Lagarde promising "shorter, crisper" statements with less jargon. The ECB announces its policy decision at 1145 GMT, followed by Lagarde's news conference at 1230 GMT. ($1 = 0.8481 euros) By Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa, 22 July 2021. Investing.com