MongiIG

Gold and Brent crude likely to find support following period of weakness Gold and Brent crude fall back down towards key support, with bulls expected to come back into play before long. Source: Bloomberg Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 05 August 2021 Gold continues to consolidate above Fibonacci support Gold has been consolidating above the $1806 Fibonacci support level over the course of the week thus far. That level is going to be key as we see the precious metal head back down towards $1806 once again. Below that point, we would look for support to come into play around $1800 and $1790. Only with a break below that lower level would see us break out from this month-long period of consolidation. Until then, the weakness we have seen recently looks likely to provide us with a another turn higher before long. Source: ProRealTime Brent crude tumbles back towards key Fibonacci support level Brent crude has been hit hard over the course of the week, with price falling back below the 61.8% Fibonacci support level to bring the 76.4% Fib level into play. The wider trend of higher lows does provide expectations that we will see the bulls come back into play before long. With that in mind, watch out for a potential bullish reaction from the 76.4% Fibonacci level around $69.07. Long positions are favoured until price breaks back below the $67.06 low. Source: ProRealTime See opportunity on a commodity?

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD pullback unlikely to last EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD weakness proves brief, with the bulls likely to come back into play. Source: Bloomberg Forex Market trend EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD Euro Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 05 August 2021 EUR/USD weakens, yet bulls could yet come back into play EUR/USD fell below the $1.185 support level yesterday, with the price falling back into the prior resistance level of $1.183 which now provides support. The original break through $1.1881 did signal the potential for a bullish reversal of the downtrend seen in June and July. Thus, this recent breakdown could yet be a retracement before we head higher once again. With that in mind, watch for the bulls to potentially come back into play here, with a break below the $1.1752 low required to bring a continuation of that bearish trend. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD respecting 76.4% Fibonacci support once again GBP/USD looks to have found support on the 76.4% Fibonacci support level once again, with the pair on the rise from that $1.3876 level in early trade. With the recent trend of higher lows still in place, this somewhat drawn out retracement phase still does look like a buying opportunity. That bullish view holds unless the price falls below the $1.3843 swing low. Source: ProRealTime AUD/USD turning higher once again within rising channel AUD/USD is turning higher once again this morning, following a 61.8% retracement that came after a rise back into trendline resistance. The recent rising channel remains in play here, with the price looking likely to push back up into trendline resistance. As such, while there is a risk of a breakdown from this channel at some point, we would need to see a decline through $0.7329 to bring about a bearish signal. Until then, this channel points towards further upside for the pair. To the upside, keep an eye out for Fibonacci resistance in the form of $0.7421 and $0.7452. Source: ProRealTime

FTSE 100, DAX and Dow likely to bring buying opportunity FTSE, DAX, and Dow consolidating, with a bullish opportunity coming into play as we await a directional breakout. Source: Bloomberg Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 05 August 2021 FTSE 100 pullback brings potential buying opportunity The FTSE 100 has drifted lower overnight, with the index weakening from trendline resistance. While the existence of both trendline support and resistance does highlight a rising wedge formation, we would only take a bearish lead from that if price falls back below the 7050 swing-low. Until then, this pullback brings a potential for another long entry around the ascending trendline and deep Fibonacci support zone (7072-7086). Source: ProRealTime DAX consolidates below resistance as we await potential breakout The DAX looks to be consolidating below the key 15706 resistance level this morning, with the index pausing in a bid to break out from this recent period of sideways price action. A rise up through 15706 from here would point towards a breakout and likely push towards the prior high of 15816. As such, the ability to break resistance or simply remain within the consolidation zone will be key for the day ahead. Source: ProRealTime Dow Jones back into key support after Wednesday decline The Dow slumped back towards the key 34761 support level yesterday, with the index remaining within a fairly tight range over the course of the past fortnight. A break out of this 34761-35176 zone will provide us with a fresh directional signal. Nonetheless, with price close to the lower boundary of that range, a bullish short-term outlook is favoured for a move back towards the top of this pattern. Source: ProRealTime See opportunity on an index?

GOLD, US DOLLAR, XAU/USD, FED BETS, DEATH CROSS – TALKING POINTS Gold prices took hit after Fed’s Clarida fueled tightening bets Friday’s non-farm payrolls report likely vital to gold’s direction XAU/USD sees a possible Death Cross formation on the horizon Gold was on the run this week until it stumbled on a surge in the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve’s Vice Chairman, Richard Clarida, caused Fed rate hike bets to strengthen on Wednesday. Mr. Clarida’s commentary suggested that economic conditions are on track to strengthen considerably, so much so that a possible taper timeline announcement is likely warranted later this year. The seasoned economist did acknowledge the growing threat posed by the highly transmissible Delta variant. Still, market participants pushed the US Dollar higher as already hawkish Fed bets intensified. The Greenback’s strength dragged gold prices lower. The yellow metal typically weakens when the Greenback strengthens due to higher holding costs for foreign investors. Gold is also seen as an inflation hedge to some, although that function is still up for debate in many circles. Consider that true, however, and the accelerated view of Fed tightening likely works to the detriment of gold prices. That is because higher interest rates typically tame rising prices. The current focus for gold likely isn’t on inflation, though. Besides, the market has largely capitulated to the Fed’s transitory view on rising prices. The big driver on the horizon for gold prices, and markets overall, is this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report (NFPs). Analysts are expecting a print of 870k jobs for July. Given the Fed’s focus on the labor market, the data print relative to the consensus view will likely be vital to monetary policy bets. With this in mind, a better-than-expected NFP print is likely to weigh on gold prices by driving USD strength. Alternatively, a miss may benefit the yellow metal. GOLD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK XAU prices were looking higher earlier this week but failed to sustain above the 50- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). The falling 50-day SMA has capped the upside over the past couple of weeks, and now a Death Cross appears to be on the horizon. That would likely put bearish technical pressure on gold and possibly drag it back below the psychologically imposing 1800 level. GOLD DAILY CHART Chart created with TradingView Written by Thomas Westwater, 5th August 2021. Analyst for DailyFX.com

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, DELTA VARIANT, CHINA, RBA - TALKING POINTS Cycle-sensitive Australian Dollar at risk as clouds of doubt brew over global recovery COVID-19 Delta variant may shake up markets as state-enforced lockdowns are imposed Rising Australia-China tension could compound medium-term bearish outlook for AUD The Australian Dollar may continue to fall against the haven-linked US Dollar and anti-risk Japanese Yen as fundamental risks continue to mount. AUD/USD and AUD/JPY have been sliding since early May, but mid-June is when the selloff began to accelerate. Given the outlook both geopolitically and medically - as it pertains to the virus - there may be more pain ahead. AUD/USD, AUD/JPY - Daily Chart AUD/USD, AUD/JPY chart created using TradingView COVID-19 DELTA VARIANT UNDERMINING CONFIDENCE The COVID-19 Delta variant is the newest iteration of a fundamental risk that has been plaguing markets and the global outlook since March 2020. This new strain - that was initially identified in India - has policymakers concerned due to the increased rate of transmissibility relative to the Alpha variant that was detected earlier this year in the United Kingdom. According to the director of the CDC, the Delta variant is now estimated to make up over 80% of “all sequenced Covid-19 cases in the U.S.”. It is not fully established how much more severe this new strain may relative to prior iterations. However, worries about evidence suggesting that it is especially transmissible and the possibility that it could more lethal have already triggered renewed lockdowns in some parts of the world. If the situation worsens, pressure to reimpose restrictions more broadly will increase. Such policies would likely derail what was a cautiously optimistic but still precarious growth outlook. The fickle nature of the virus and the follow-on volatility in public health policy translate into a clouded path for fiscal and monetary economic strategy, leaving markets suspended in an environment of intensified uncertainty. It is understandable then why the US Dollar and Japanese Yen have risen at the expense of currencies like AUD. Officials will have to wrestle with balancing transmissibility-reducing policies - e.g. lockdowns and reduced capacity for restaurants and other venues for social gatherings - and maintaining economic integrity. Early data suggests that easing restrictions - prompted by high vaccination rates and an urgency to reopen businesses - has contributed to higher rates of infection. While officials say the vaccine does reduce the risk, it does not eliminate it entirely - and this last point is key as it pertains to the growth outlook. If the vaccine proves to be more effective than anticipated, markets may breathe a sigh of relief, consequently leading investors to raise their risk threshold. The flow of capital in the aforementioned dynamic would then likely reverse and push sentiment-linked assets higher. However, the Aussie’s enthusiasm may be curbed as it contends with geopolitical tensions at home. AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR AT RISK FROM CHINA TENSIONS Tension between Australia and China surged during the pandemic after Canberra called for more international investigations into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic. Australia has generally had to perform a balancing act between its military/foreign policy alignment with the US and the practicalities of its economic relationship to China (see more below). However, under Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, the center-right government has taken a harder stance in its relations with Beijing. For example, it helped Telstra Corp, an Australian-based telecommunications company, acquire “mobile networks in six Pacific nations” as pushback against market penetration by China’s state-championed telecom giant Huawei. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and uses key commodities like iron ore - of which Australia is the largest producer of in the world - as a key input into its economic engine. Escalating tensions between Canberra and Beijing have led to the latter imposing tariffs on the former and threatening to restrict the flow of Chinese nationals. Source: Budget Direct This includes limiting tourists - who account for the majority of foreign visitors - and students. Cumulatively, Chinese nationals make billions of dollars’ worth of expenditures per year in Australia. The pandemic has already decimated the tourism industry, and a growing political fissure may further restrict the flow of people and their spending power. This economic drought by itself is worrying. However, the shaky fundamental backdrop from the pandemic and the emergence of new strains compounds the impact of these geopolitical developments. Consequently, unless China and Australia can reach some sort of reconciliation, worsening relations may cap AUD’s gains even in a best-case Covid management scenario. RBA OUTLOOK Last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its interest rate decision and released its monetary policy statement. Officials decided to maintain the 3-year yield target at 0.10% and left the cash rate unchanged at 10 basis points. The RBA expects that the conditions necessary to begin raising rates will not be achieved before 2024. Authorities recognized that the new virus strain and outbreaks have added uncertainty to the outlook, with wage and inflation indicators remaining subdued. Having said that, officials acknowledged that spending habits and generally household consumption has a tendency to sharply rebound after a lockdown period. Furthermore, the surge in commodity prices has buttressed exports with “more Australians [having] jobs than before the pandemic”. You can see the full statement here. However, if global demand tilts to the downside amid the outbreak of the Delta variant, this reversal in sentiment could further dampen the outlook for the Australian Dollar. Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst, 5th August 2021. DailyFX

CRUDE OIL, COVID-19, FED, IGCS, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - TALKING POINTS: Growth-linked crude oil prices weakened alongside energy stocks on Wall Street Rising global Covid-19 cases, speech from Fed’s Clarida dented energy prices WTI at risk of developing bearish technical signals as retail traders go long WTI crude oil prices fell by the most in over 2 weeks on Wednesday, succumbing to fundamental forces that did similar damage to energy stocks and the cyclically-oriented Dow Jones Industrial Average. Rising Covid-19 cases amid the spread of the more contagious Delta variant have been denting global growth prospects. China, the world’s largest consumer of the commodity, recently placed millions into lockdown to help contain the virus. A softer ADP employment report in the United States may have contributed to the sour mood on Wall Street, weakening oil prices too. This was then compounded by relatively hawkish commentary from Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida, who noted that conditions for raising rates could be met by the end of next year. The EIA’s report of an unexpected 3.6-million-barrel draw in crude oil inventories last week also weighed on prices. Prior to Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report, oil prices could remain vulnerable to swelling Covid cases. The focus over the remaining 24 hours likely turns to more Fedspeak. Governor Christopher Waller and Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari are slated to speak. The former could reiterate his rather hawkish views on monetary policy while the latter may counter with his relatively dovish opinions of late. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Crude oil prices may be at risk in the near term after a bearish ‘Death Cross’ emerged between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The 67.94 – 66.37 inflection zone is in focus after the commodity paused its drop on the outer boundary of the range. Pushing deeper into the zone and breaking under risks opening the door to further losses. In the event of a bounce, keep a close eye on the SMAs which may act as key resistance points. WTI DAILY CHART Chart Created Using TradingView CRUDE OIL SENTIMENT ANALYSIS According to IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), about 62% of retail traders are net-long crude oil. Upside exposure has increased by 22.59% and 45.80% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment. The fact that traders are net-long hints prices may continue falling. Recent shifts in sentiment are further reinforcing this outlook. *IGCS chart used from August 4th report Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, 5th August 2021. Strategist for DailyFX.com

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage: Team GB 4th in medals table at Tokyo 2020 Indices: CAC hits 20yr high as Europe overall expected to open mixed. Asia mostly up, ASX200 new record high. FTSE250, yesterday hi t a new record high FX: Watching sterling ahead of Bank of England rate decision at noon. USD received a boost as more Fed commentators indicate bullish commentary Equities: UBER multi-month low as costs outweigh good Q2 earnings. SIE raises guidance. Watching RR AIG today Commods: Brent tests $70 support https://community.ig.com/igtv/

The UK’s third most valuable bank received stock target price upgrades from Credit Suisse, JPMorgan and UBS analysts. Lloyds Banking Group (LON: LLOY) shares have fallen 1.9% since reporting H1 results Nevertheless, a trio of research firms are now eyeing higher target prices The group reported a statutory profit before tax of £3.9 billion for the period, up from a loss of £0.6 billion It also reintroduced a ‘progressive and sustainable ordinary dividend policy’ Interested in trading LLOY shares? Open an account with us to get started. LLOY stock price: what are analysts’ latest targets? Credit Suisse, JPMorgan and UBS analysts raised their target prices on Lloyds shares, following the bank’s latest earnings update. The FTSE 100 money lender was named as Credit Suisse analyst Omar Keenan’s top UK stock pick last week. He maintained an ‘outperform’ call on the stock and lifted the price target on LLOY to £61 from £60 a share, on the back of higher revised earnings for the rest of 2021, 2022 and 2023. ‘Repayment rates remain higher than average and travel spend is yet to return, so we would expect improvements in sequential trends with further lifting of restrictions,’ the analyst said, adding that the banking sector continues to look ‘attractive’ as a whole. UBS also raised its price target to £55 from £54 previously alongside a ‘buy’ rating, while JPMorgan, which continues to recommend ‘outperform’, is now eyeing a fair value estimate of £60, up from £59 before. Lloyds currently has a mean consensus of ‘buy’ from 25 analysts and average target price of £53.23, according to the latest S&P Global Market Intelligence data. The target price equates to a potential 14.3% upside from the stock’s most recent price of £46.59 on Wednesday. What’s your view on Lloyds? Take a position on the stock today Go short and long with spread bets, CFDs and share dealing on 16,000+ shares with the UK’s No.1 platform.* Learn more about trading shares with us, or open an account to get started today. * Best trading platform as awarded at the ADVFN International Financial Awards and Professional Trader Awards 2019 How did Lloyds fare in its H1 2021 results? Last Thursday, the group reported a statutory profit before tax of £3.9 billion, a significant increase from the £0.6 billion loss during the same period a year ago. The group attributed this to ‘solid business momentum’ and a net impairment credit of £333 million in the second quarter alone. Net income came in 2% higher year-on-year and slightly ahead of analyst expectations at £7.6 billion. This was alongside increased average interest-earning assets of £441 billion, a ‘strong’ banking net interest margin of 2.5% and other income of £2.4 billion. The board also reintroduced what it called a ‘progressive and sustainable ordinary dividend policy’ as it announced an interim ordinary dividend of 0.67 pence per share. This was ‘given the strength of the capital position and the regulator’s clarification that banks may resume capital distributions’. Subsequently, Lloyds was able to hit a CET1 ratio of 16.7% after dividend accrual, which is ‘significantly ahead’ of both the ongoing target of around 12.5% and regulatory requirement of 11%. The group enhanced its guidance for the rest of 2021 on the back of these results. It now expects net interest margin to be around 250 basis points and operating costs to be at an estimated £7.6 billion for the full year. Kelvin Ong | Financial writer, Singapore | Publication date: Wednesday 04 August 2021. IG

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD on the rise once again EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD gain ground, but key resistance remains up ahead as the dollar weakens. Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares United States dollar Euro Australian dollar EUR/USD Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 04 August 2021 EUR/USD consolidates after recent rise EUR/USD continues to consolidate above the $1.185 support level, with the pair seemingly taking a break after the rally seen in late-July. There is a good chance that this is simply a pause before we head higher once more, and thus it makes sense to watch for a rally through $1.1893, to bring about a fresh bullish outlook for the index. To the downside, a break below $1.185 would bring a more bearish short-term picture. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD on the rise from 76.4% Fibonacci support GBP/USD has been slowly building momentum after a retracement into the 76.4% Fibonacci support level. Yesterday’s initial rise failed to gain traction, yet we are pushing upwards once again today, in a bid to maintain the recent uptrend. With that in mind, a bullish outlook holds here, with a break below the $1.3843 swing-low required to negate that view. Source: ProRealTime AUD/USD rallies back into key resistance AUD/USD has continued its ascent following, with a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) statement earlier in the week. That has taken us back into a confluence of trendline and Fibonacci 61.8% resistance, raising questions over whether we could see the price retrace lower once again. With the stochastic into overbought territory, it makes sense to keep an eye out for a potential break back below the 80 thresholds as a signal that price is set for another move back towards trendline support. As such, keep an eye out for the reaction to this resistance level as a gauge of where we go from here. Source: ProRealTime

US DOLLAR, ADP EMPLOYMENT, FED, NFP, EUR/USD – TALKING POINTS: US Dollar little-changed since last week’s Fed-inspired selloff ADP jobs data eyed as preview of Friday’s official NFP release EUR/USD struggling to make good on bullish Wedge breakout The US Dollar has been little-changed on net since slipping in the wake of last week’s FOMC policy announcement, seemingly underscoring that move’s limited scope for follow-through. This is because the central bank’s cautious inching toward tapering QE was on-boarded as ‘dovish’ by investors that just recently balked at the idea of even considering conversation about stimulus withdrawal. This probably signals to Fed officials that their “forward guidance” campaign is succeeding. The markets have seemingly acclimated to the inevitability of tightening, and even to its gradual onset in the foreseeable term. Chair Powell and company may now have room to escalate again, with the annual Jackson Hole symposium mere weeks away. The gathering is frequently a venue for previewing big policy changes. The tone of incoming economic data now seems critical. If Fed is to convince markets to come along peacefully as it plants the seeds of normalization, investors will need to be reassured that the economy can stomach it. With the Delta variant of Covid-19 triggering at least some slowing of reopening global efforts – from tightened masking rules in some places to full-scale lockdowns in others – the threat to growth is palpable. The highest-profile piece of data steering this narrative on this week’s calendar is surely Friday’s official US employment report. Today’s docket offers a bit of a preview with the private-sector estimate of jobs growth from ADP. It is expected to show that job creation in July will add 695k to payrolls, nearly matching June’s 692k rise. If hiring outpaces forecasts – as telegraphed in ISM survey data – the Greenback may rise. EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – EURO STRUGGLING TO EXTEND ADVANCE The Euro is struggling to make lasting headway against the US Dollar after bouncing from 10-month chart support to break the bounds of a bullish Felling Wedge pattern. Prices are idling in the 1.1836-95 congestion area. A break upward eyes further resistance close by in the 1.1952-90 region. Taking out near-term support with a daily close below 1.1750 exposes the 1.17 figure on route to the key 1.1600-30 zone. Written by Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, 4th August,2021. APAC at DailyFX.com

GBP PRICE, NEWS AND ANALYSIS: GBP/USD is continuing its modest climb higher that began a fortnight ago, and could hit the psychologically important 1.40 level soon. That, though, is dependent on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee sounding hawkish when it announces its latest decisions Thursday. GBP/USD WAITING FOR BANK OF ENGLAND GBP/USD continues to advance modestly, extending the rise that began on July 20 when the pair hit a recent low at 1.3572. The clear near-term target remains the psychologically-important 1.40 level, and Thursday’s announcements by the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee could prove to be the catalyst for that level to be reached and perhaps breached. When the MPC reports, the focus will be on whether it drops any hints that a monetary policy tightening is on the way, either through a reduction of its asset purchases or even through higher UK interest rates. Note that it will not actually change any of its settings tomorrow but it could begin to warn the markets that a tapering of its assistance program is now being considered – a positive for GBP/USD. GBP/USD Price Chart, Hourly Timeframe (July 20 – August 4, 2021) To the downside, if the BoE shrugs off stronger UK inflation and economic growth, there is support at 1.3840 from the downward sloping trendline shown on the chart above that previously acted as resistance and is now supporting the price. As for the US Dollar, that side of the equation is also relatively stable Wednesday, with traders waiting for Friday’s US labor-market report. Forecasters polled by the financial news agencies are predicting an increase of 880,000 in non-farm payrolls in July, up from the previous 850,000. Written by Martin Essex, Analyst. 4th August, 2021. DailyFX DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. DISCLOSURES

Gold and Brent crude on the rise after recent weakness Gold and Brent crude attempt to regain ground, with recent losses likely to result in another move higher before long. Source: Bloomberg Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 04 August 2021 Gold continuing to stabilize around 61.8% retracement Gold remains above the 61.8% Fibonacci support level, following the decline seen on Friday. The ability to remain above that level is key here, with a move through the $1820 threshold bringing a bullish breakout signal. As such, keep an eye out for a potential recovery for this market, with a break back below $1790 required to bring a more bearish picture into play. Source: ProRealTime Brent crude attempts to regain ground after recent selloff Brent crude has been on the back foot over the course of the week thus far, with the break below $72.14 providing a bearish signal yesterday. However, this pullback is viewed as a likely retracement of the wider rally from $67.06. As such, the bulls are expected to come back into play before long, but there is still a risk of further short-term downside. With that in mind, the rise seen this morning remains at risk of fading, with a break up through $73.42 required to bring a more reliable bullish signal into play. Source: ProRealTime

FTSE 100, DAX and Dow rally back into key resistance FTSE, DAX, and Dow are on the rise once again. However, with key resistance up ahead, questions remain. Source: Bloomberg Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 04 August 2021 FTSE 100 rising back towards key resistance as recovery continues The FTSE 100 has continued the ascent which has been playing out over the course of the past two weeks. With price rising back into a confluence of trendline and horizontal resistance, there is a significant region of resistance up ahead around 7151. With that in mind, the ability to break through the 7151 resistance level will be key to continuing this bullish trend. To the downside, a break below the 7050 level would be required to bring a more bearish near-term outlook for the index. Source: ProRealTime DAX reverses back up towards top end of consolidation zone The DAX has started to regain ground once again, in a move that looks to push the index towards the top end of the consolidation zone seen over the past two weeks. With a wider bullish trend in play, there is a good chance we are going to see a bullish breakout when price does exit this pattern. However, bulls would probably want to await a break and close above 15692 before taking any fresh positions, with the risk of further consolidation obviously still in play until then. Source: ProRealTime Dow Jones back into resistance after latest rise The Dow has been on the rise after a brief foray below 34760 support yesterday. That takes us back into a key 35175 resistance level, with a break above this point bringing about a fresh bullish signal for the index. With that in mind, it makes sense to watch out for a potential breakout through 35175 to continue the bullish trend. Until that happens, there is a good chance we will see price drift lower to remain within the recent consolidation zone. Source: ProRealTime See opportunity on an index?

The Tencent share price is off more than 40% from February’s highs due to regulatory headwinds, but is now the time to buy? Why is the Tencent share price under pressure in 2021 Tencent the Chinese tech giant sees its share price down more than 20% year (more than 40% down from February’s highs) to date as investors react to a regulatory crackdown furthered by media pressure. Chinese officials clamping down on major tech companies within the region has been due to what it deem threats to national data as well as financial security. This has been followed up by the Chinese government targeting anti-competitive practices particularly within the e-commerce space. The list of Tencent services which have been affected includes private education service, WeChat, online music streaming services and mobile/online gaming. In the short term Chinese State Media has commented that online gaming is like ‘spiritual opium’. The comments have seen a sharp selloff in gaming stocks such as Tencent, in lieu of further regulatory pressure that could follow. Tencent has been quick to react to the State Media’s comments offering further solution to the problem by limiting gaming hours for minors. Is Tencent still a buy at current levels? The decline in Tencent’s share price this year accompanies the uncertainty pertaining to future earnings due to regulatory actions current and possibly ongoing. Chinese authorities are removing some barriers for entry for competitors while also disrupting earnings streams through limiting usage. Compliance with regulations will also incur increased development costs for the group. However, Tencent remains a well-diversified, capitalised and cash generative business. The companies dominance in the online internet and gaming segments as well as industry leading platform such as WeChat should ensure that the company is well placed to weather the current regulatory headwinds Source: Refinitiv A Refinitiv poll of 54 analysts maintain a long-term investment rating of ‘buy’ for Tencent Holdings (as of 3 August 2021) with a target price (mean of estimates) of 725.73 (Hong Kong dollars). The price target suggests the current share price to be trading at a 63% discount to a perceived fair value. Source: IG charts The share price of Tencent has started a new downtrend in 2021 and is currently testing support at the 444.30 level. A break of the 444.30 level would consider 404.50 as the next support target from the move. Traders who are still looking to instead get long on Tencent, might prefer to look for entry on a price rebound and close above both trend line and horizontal resistance at the 559.60 level. Summary The Tencent share price is down more than 20% year to date The decline follows the Chinese governments clampdown on data and financial security issues as well as anti-competitive behaviour particularly in the e-commerce space In the short term Chinese State Media has commented that online gaming is like ‘spiritual opium’ to further weigh on the Tencent share price The decline in Tencent’s share price this year accompanies the uncertainty pertaining to future earnings Tencent remains a well-diversified, capitalised and cash generative business The average broker rating for Tencent remains ‘buy’ The share price is currently testing a key level of support Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Wednesday 04 August 2021. IG

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage: ASIA: Caixin China services index surged to 54.9 in July from a 14-month low of 50.3 in the previous reading. Nikkei underperforming in Asia. US: Robinhood behaves like a meme stock, rallying 24% on no notable news, surges beyond IPO price EARNINGS: Lyft Q2 revenue +125% you, Uber earnings tonight Commerzbank H1 Oper results EUR 570mn vs loss 74 mn you, revenue slight miss Next TS, Taylor Wimpey, Legal and General at 7 COMMODS: Brent crude drifting lower heading towards support at $72 https://community.ig.com/igtv/

The Bank of England grows steadily more hawkish, but questions remain over whether rising inflation will force its head towards a tapering stage. Bank of England meeting: when and where? The Bank of England (BoE) will commence their latest monetary policy announcement at midday, on Thursday 5 August 2021. Tune in to IGTV’s live BoE announcement and analysis at 11:55 AM BST on Thursday in the IG platform. Inflation concerns remain prevalent Rising inflation has been a key concern for central banks with confidence fading that this above-target period is going to be transient in nature. Undoubtedly, the losses experienced by many companies throughout the world have increased the need for some to raise prices, with rising demand helping to justify those gains. The latest inflation data available to the BoE highlights the fact that we remain on an upward trajectory, with the headline consumer price index (CPI) figure of 2.5% representing the highest level since February 2018. That markets the second consecutive above-target CPI reading, which is likely to slightly turn up the heat on those MPC members that have viewed the rise as transitory. Source: ONS Looking at the inflation breakdown, we can see that much of the recent rise has been attributed to transport and housing costs. Interestingly, transport costs have been heavily influenced by the rise in fuel prices over the past year, although second-hand cars have also provided one area of notable growth which may actually have a link to the rock-bottom interest rates. While much of the demand seen over the course of the Covid-19 pandemic has come as people seek their own means of transport, that is expected to ease as vaccinations allow greater confidence to use public transport. Vaccinations look to be working as Covid-19 cases subside One key issue that will have raised concern amongst MPC members at last month’s meeting was the rapid rise in Covid-19 cases. However, while the halving in Covid-19 cases over the past fortnight will be welcome, the committee will want to see a protracted move lower for deaths before they can say with confidence that the vaccine will help avoid the need for further economic restrictions. Nonetheless, with cases and deaths typically exhibiting a two-week lag, evidence of a decline in deaths may come in the days around the BoE meeting. It is perhaps a little too late to gain enough confidence that the worst is over. Source: data.gov.uk On the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) front, we have seen both services and manufacturing surveys decline significantly, driving the composite reading down from 62.2 to 57.7 in July. However, much of the weakness we have seen recently comes off the back of growing inventories difficulties as firms struggle to obtain materials. Meanwhile, the so-called ‘pingdemic’ has added to staffing troubles as the NHS Covid-19 app informs thousands of the need to isolate. While the government has made adjustments that should alleviate some of those troubles, firms are clearly struggling to fill roles in a bid to take advantage of increased demand. Source: Markit What to look out for at the meeting Recent hawkish tones from Andy Haldane and David Ramsden does point towards a split decision on tapering at Thursday’s meeting, but the remaining members are likely to hold strong to result in a 6-2 vote. The breakdown of that vote on tapering will likely provide one key element that traders will be watching closely as a driver of volatility. Tapering will be a key element of forthcoming meetings, and the ongoing work being done to lay out greater detail on how it will be undertaken could bring an area of interest. There is no guarantee that it will be approached this meeting, yet the bank will likely have to provide a blueprint for tapering before too long. Interest rates are unlikely to change anytime soon, with tapering the first concern. That can be seen by the fact that market pricing points towards a first rate hike in mid-2022. Nonetheless, markets will be adjusting to any changes in this outlook given the decisions and commentary provided by Andrew Bailey and co. Source: Eikon With Covid-19 fears seemingly easing, there is a good chance that the MPC will want to wait in a bid to understand whether the vaccine has truly mitigated much the risks for the UK economy. Traders will be watching out for growth forecasts, although strong jobs data and weakening PMI figures highlight the fact that an upgrade is far from a given. With the furlough scheme winding down, there will also be some concerns over how the jobs market could look in the months ahead. The rise in inflation is obviously a key concern for the bank, and markets will be keeping a keen eye out for the banks tone around whether they still this rise as being transitory in nature. As we have seen some of the inflation pressures are down to factors such as energy which will be largely out of the bank’s control, while other drivers are likely to fade as things return to normality. Where now for the pound? EUR/GBP looks an interesting pair as we head into the meeting, with the pound weakening after a drive that took the pair into trendline support. While there is a chance we could see a hawkish stance, there is a good chance we see further upside for the pair as it builds on this recent bounce. Should we see less than two members vote to taper, it could spark another rise for EUR/GBP. However, it is worthwhile noting the direction of travel over recent months, with short-term upside likely to be sold into before long. Source: ProRealTime Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 03 August 2021. IG

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD gain ground in early trade EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD on the rise, but questions remain for the Australian dollar despite hawkish RBA stance. Source: Bloomberg Forex United States dollar Australian dollar Euro EUR/USD GBP/USD Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 03 August 2021 EUR/USD awaits breakout from continuation pattern EUR/USD is trading within a pennant formation, with the pair pausing after the gains seen last week. To the upside, we do need to keep an eye out for a potential break through the $1.1897 level as a signal that we are set for another leg higher. Meanwhile, a drop back below $1.185 would point towards a deeper pullback coming into play. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD turning higher after 76.4% pullback GBP/USD has started to regain bullish momentum following a retracement into the 76.4% Fibonacci level at $1.3876. The ongoing uptrend points towards a bullish session ahead, with a positive outlook in play unless the price drops below $1.3843. Source: ProRealTime AUD/USD back into confluence of resistance AUD/USD has been on the rise overnight, with a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stance bringing gains for the Australian dollar. However, that takes us into the confluence of 61.8% and trendline resistance. With the trend of lower highs in place, this recent grind higher still looks like a potential precursor to further weakness unless the price breaks up through the $0.7503 swing-high. Source: ProRealTime

Gold and Brent crude start to regain ground after Monday weakness Gold and Brent crude look to regain ground after recent weakness, but do recent losses point towards further downside to come? Source: Bloomberg Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 03 August 2021 Gold attempting to regain ground after 61.8% retracement Gold has started to steady itself after the recent decline into the 61.8% Fibonacci support level at $1806. Coming off the back of a rally into the $1834 region, there is a chance we could see the bulls come back into play before long. Greater confidence comes into play with a rise through $1819 bringing greater confidence that this pullback is over. Ultimately this current pullback does look like a retracement and precursor to further gains unless price drops back below the $1790 support level. Source: ProRealTime Brent crude starts to gain strength after decline into key support Brent crude has been on the back foot in the beginning of the week, with price falling back down into the $7214 support level established last Monday. The decline through $73.12 does raise question marks over the potential for further downside following the recent breakdown. A break below the $72.14 level would bring greater confidence in a more protracted breakdown. Nonetheless, for the time being, we are seeing the bulls come back into play as price aims to regain ground lost yesterday. Source: ProRealTime See opportunity on a commodity?

Hello IG Community We are writing to you inform you this Stock Request forum will be used to make a request for a stock to be traded. Your request will be sent through to our share dealing desk and can expect a response on request within 24 hours. We will keep you updated on all stock requests made. When making a stock request please kindly give the following information: Name of stock Name of Stock Exchange Leverage or Share dealing Ticker Country of the stock Market Cap If the stock trades on OTC then we are unable to offer, we do not deal in OTC stocks. If you search on Google Finance or Yahoo Finance it will tell you what exchange the stock trades under the stock name and the market cap. All the best - MongiIG

FTSE 100, DAX and Dow expected to gain ground despite consolidation FTSE, DAX, and Dow struggle to maintain bullish momentum, but will we see the bulls come back into play before long? Source: Bloomberg Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 03 August 2021 FTSE 100 falls back towards trendline support within recovery phase The FTSE 100 has been on the rise over the course of the past week, with price rising up through the 7100 level yesterday. However, we are seeing some consolidation below that level, with price moving back towards ascending trendline support. A break below trendline support would raise questions over the ability to maintain this bullish recovery. Ultimately, however, we would need to see a break below 6995 if we were to negate the current bullish outlook for the FTSE. Source: ProRealTime DAX continues to consolidate after recent gains The DAX has been consolidating over the course of the past week, with yesterday’s early spike failing to hold as price fell back into the consolidation zone. We remain within that zone and await another break higher. To the downside, a decline through 15437 support would bring a more bearish short-term outlook into play. Source: ProRealTime Dow Jones selloff brings potential buying opportunity The Dow has been on the back foot since yesterday’s rise back into the key 35176 resistance level. With price starting to rise, it is worthwhile watching for another rally back towards the top end of this recent consolidation phase. A break back below the 34761 support level would be required to bring a more bearish short-term picture. Source: ProRealTime See opportunity on an index?

Spot prices and future prices have some things in common, but it’s essential to understand the differences between futures vs spot when trading any asset. Learn more in this guide. What’s on this page? The difference between spot and futures: an overview What is a spot market and spot pricing? What is a futures market and futures pricing? Futures vs spot pricing: three key differences How to trade futures and spot markets The difference between spot and futures: an overview Spot and futures markets are two different ways to trade popular markets. The key difference is in their costs and expiries. Spot markets (also known as cash markets) have low spreads but overnight fees. They don’t expire. Futures markets (also known as forwards markets) have higher spreads but no overnight fees. They expire on a set date in the future. This makes spot markets more attractive to day traders, and futures markets more attractive to longer-term traders. With us, you can trade both spot and futures with spread bets and CFDs. Both are traded using leverage, which means you’ll put down a deposit (percentage of the value of the trade) to get started. This deposit is called margin. While margin lowers the cost of entry for your trade, it magnifies any profits and losses, which means you could lose more than your initial deposit. Read more about how to manage your risk. What is a spot market and spot pricing? A spot market is simply a market where you can buy or sell assets at the current rate – called the spot price. When trading the spot market, your position will be opened immediately, or ‘on the spot’. For day traders, spot pricing is the most straightforward way to buy and sell an asset. You simply track the price over time, set your personal entry and exit point, and then buy at your desired price. You can then hold on to your trade over the your chosen term, selling it only once the price has risen to a value that aligns with your trading goals. This is a popular strategy for day traders, as they can open positions with low spreads and no expiry date. By trading on the spot market, you can gain exposure to shares, ETFs, indices, forex and commodities via derivatives such as spread bets and CFDs. Spot trading example Let’s say you expect the price of wheat to rise from its spot price of 885 over the next couple of days. You decide to open a spread bet, so you go to our platform and you see that the buy price is 884 and the sell price is 886. You could open a position to buy the market at £5 per point of movement. Every point of movement in the underlying market is now worth £5 to you – so if the wheat price rises by 20 points, you’d make a £100 profit but if it falls by 12 points, you’d make a £60 loss. Alternatively, if you thought the wheat price would fall, you could open a spread bet to sell the market. If it did fall in price, you’d profit – but if it increased instead, you’d make a loss. What is a futures market and futures pricing? A futures price is a quote for a contract that will be executed at a certain point in the future. The value is linked to the spot price, but whereas spot pricing is used to make immediate trades, futures pricing is used by traders who hope to make a profit by locking in the price now and finalising the sale at some point in the future. A futures contract obligates the buyer and seller to trade a particular asset at a pre-determined price. This allows traders to take both long and short positions on their preferred market, based on their own price movement predictions, or market analysis. When following futures prices, it is important to choose a trading platform that has deep liquidity. This will ensure that you can exit your trade or open a new position at the moment of your choosing. Futures trading example Suppose the current market level of US Crude – our WTI market – is £6500. We’re offering a sell price of £6497 and a buy price of £6503 due to the spread of six points, which we wrap around the underlying level. You think the market will rise and decide to buy ten ‘Oil – US Crude (£1)’ futures CFDs. Each is worth £1 per point of movement, and expires at the end of the month. As CFDs are leveraged, you’ll only have to put down a 10% deposit to open this position. In this example, you’ll deposit £6503 for a position worth £65,030 [(6503 x 10 futures CFDs x £1 per point) x 10%]. Please note, however, that while leverage can magnify your profits, it can also amplify your losses. Some of our oil futures CFDs are quoted in US dollars. In these cases, your profits or losses will be realised in dollar terms, and then converted into pounds at the prevailing rate of exchange At the end of the month, the price of oil has risen by 50 points, up to 6550 – with a sell price of 6547 and a buy price of 6553. You decide to close your trade. As the price has risen, you’ll make a profit of £440 [(6547 – 6503) x 10 contracts x £1]. However, if the price of oil had declined by 20 points, you would have lost £260 [(6477 – 6503) x 10 contracts x £1] = -£260. Futures markets vs spot markets: three key differences Cost Timing and expiry Hedging Cost Futures prices are based on spot prices, but that’s where the connection ends. Futures prices are centred around the anticipated supply and demand for the underlying asset. For instance, if crude oil market production has stalled, this may indicate some scarcity in the future, which could see the futures price of crude oil spike. Futures prices are also subject to a cost of carry. This fee covers the cost of storing the underlying asset until the point of sale, and it may also include any interest fees, or insurance. When trading with us, you can expect lower spreads on spot markets, but you’ll pay overnight funding to keep a position open. Futures contracts, on the other hand, have higher spreads but no overnight fees. Timing and expiry The second difference between the futures market vs the spot market is the timing of the trade, and expiry. Spot markets are set up to allow trades to take place ‘on the spot’. The spot price relates to the current market value of a particular asset, and will go up or down in real time based on market demand. By contrast, futures markets rely on contracts between traders, which determine the price of the underlying at a set point in the future. The price is agreed in advance of the trade, with the buyer hoping for a price rise over time, and the seller hoping to exit their trade with a profit. Lastly, spot trades don’t have an expiry date, while futures expire at a set date Hedging Hedging means holding two or more positions at the same time with the aim of offsetting any losses from the first position with gains from the other. So, you could hedge a spot position with a futures position. For instance, if you believe that the price of gold is going to go down, you may wish to short your position on the gold markets by selling it on the futures market. If you believe the price of gold is going to rise, you might choose to buy and hold your position over time. How to trade futures and spot markets Research spot and futures Open an account Choose your market to trade Choose between spot and futures Place your trade Before deciding whether you want to trade spot vs futures markets, you should ensure that you have a good understanding of the potential risks involved. You can learn more about how to trade spot markets and how to trade futures markets here. The next step is to open a trading account with a platform that has deep liquidity and offers both spot market and futures market access. CFD market Spot Futures Shares Yes No ETFs Yes No Indices Yes Yes Forex Yes No Commodities Yes Yes Bonds and rates No Yes While some of the markets in the table above aren’t available for CFD futures, they might be available for spread betting futures or forwards within our platform. Here’s how our spread betting offering matches up. For ease of understanding, within our platform our futures and forwards offerings are technically the same. Spread bet market Spot Futures/forwards Shares Yes Yes ETFs Yes Yes Indices Yes Yes Forex Yes Yes Commodities Yes Yes Bonds and rates No Yes Then, you have to choose the market that you want to trade. It’s generally best to choose a market that you have some familiarity with, as any specific market knowledge can help you to make more informed decisions about your trades. When choosing your market, be sure to take into consideration their volatility. Some traders enjoy the excitement of trading on volatile assets, while others prefer the lower-risk markets. Finally, simply log into our trading platform and select a market. Choose to access either futures pricing or spot pricing, and then you can start buying, selling and trading as you wish. Spot market vs futures market summed up Spot prices relate the current value of an asset Futures prices are linked to spot prices, but they may also include a fee for storing the trade until the deal is executed, at a point in the future To trade on the spot market, simply open an account, choose your market and execute your trade To trade on the futures market, open your account and decide whether you are going to buy or sell, then place your trade with an execution date at some point in the future Open a live account to start trading spot markets or futures markets Kathryn Gaw | Financial Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 02 August 2021. IG

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage: ASIA: RBA sticks with tapering plan, forecasts conditions for rate rises won’t be met until 2024 Tencent slumps 10% amid regulation concern as state-backed media describes gaming as ‘opium’ US: Dow swing to loss into close reversing from an intraday record on weaker US ISM manuf. PMI EARNINGS: Greggs, BP out at 7am, Stellantis due later StanChart resumes dividend, announces share buyback after H1 profit beats. SocGen ups 2021 FY guidance, Q2 net income beats COMMODS: Oil continues decline after shedding 3% on Monday as OPEC supply hit 15-month high and China demand concerns weigh https://community.ig.com/igtv/

The dollar edged lower Monday, just above a one-month low, in tight trading ranges ahead of the release of key U.S. employment data later in the week which could influence Federal Reserve policy. At 3:05 AM ET (0705 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower at 92.102, just above Friday’s low of 91.775, the weakest since June 28. USD/JPY edged lower to 109.67, GBP/USD drifted higher to 1.3905, and EUR/USD traded largely flat at 1.1867, even with German retail sales surprising to the upside, growing 4.2% in June. . The dollar index dropped close to 1% last week after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated, following the central bank’s July meeting, that interest rate increases were still a long way away and more economic progress was needed, particularly in terms of jobs being created, before the central bank started tapering its huge bond-buying program. Fed board member Lael Brainard restated the central bank's focus on further labor market progress at the weekend, while Minnesota Fed President Neal Kashkari warned that the spread of the delta variant of Covid-19 could slow the economy in the second half. This puts Friday’s July nonfarm payrolls release firmly into focus, with economists looking for an increase of 900,000 jobs, which would be the biggest increase for 11 months, after a forecast-beating 850,000 in June. “A strong US jobs report is anticipated, and it will support speculation that at the Jackson Hole conference at the end of August, Chair Powell will provide more guidance about the pace and composition of the Fed's bond purchases,” said Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. Also of interest will be the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia early Tuesday, with this central bank under pressure given the Covid-19 lockdowns currently affecting much of the country. “The lockdown in Sydney has been extended until the end of August, and the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely abort plans to reduce its bond-buying. Instead, it will likely provide more support, probably via increased bond purchases,” Chandler added. At 3 AM ET, AUD/USD traded marginally lower at 0.7342, with the Australian dollar having been the only major currency to fall against the U.S. dollar last week. USD/CNY rose 0.1% to 6.4645 after China’s factory activity growth slowed sharply in July, with the Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers’ index falling to 50.3, its lowest level since April 2020. By Peter Nurse (Investing.com), 2 August 2021.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD on the rise after recent retracement Dollar weakness expected to play out as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD turn higher following a recent retracement phase. Forex Shares United States dollar Australian dollar EUR/USD GBP/USD Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 02 August 2021 EUR/USD turning higher from key support EUR/USD has seen the previous high of $1.185 turn into support, with the pair moving higher in early trade. The recent rally took us into the deep Fibonacci zone and thus it is worthwhile watching the $1.189 and $1.1923 levels as potential resistance on the way up. For the short term we can see the potential for further upside as we build on the trend of higher lows. As such, a positive outlook holds unless the price falls back below the $1.185 support level. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD starts to regain ground after recent pullback GBP/USD is back on the front foot this morning, as it looks to regain its positive momentum after a deep pullback on Friday. That retracement provides us with a buying opportunity given the recent uptrend, where a bullish outlook holds unless the pair drops below the $1.3842 swing-low. Source: ProRealTime AUD/USD on the rise from trendline support AUD/USD has been lacking momentum of late, with the pair falling back into trendline support on Friday. That trendline has held up, with the price on the rise in early trade today. That is likely to continue as we move through the day, with the dollar expected to weaken as stocks rise. With that in mind, short-term gains look likely to take us back towards trendline resistance, with a break back below the $0.7329 swing low required to negate that bullish outlook. Source: ProRealTime

Gold and Brent crude weaken after recent gains, but bullish structure remains Gold and Brent crude weaken after recent gains, but the bullish momentum may not be over quite yet. Source: Bloomberg Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 02 August 2021 Gold pullback brings questions around Fibonacci support Gold has been on the back foot since Thursday’s peak, with the precious metal falling back into the 61.8% Fibonacci support level at $1806. The recent rise back into the $1834 level does point towards a potential continuation of the recent bullish phase, although the break through $1789 would instead provide a bearish double top formation. As such, there is an argument on either side, with the respect or lack of respect shown to the Fibonacci levels at $1806 and $1799 proving key in telling us where we go from here. Source: ProRealTime Brent crude pullback unlikely to last Brent crude has weakened in early trade today, with price falling into the 61.8% Fibonacci support level at $74.97. The ongoing uptrend points towards the bulls coming back into play around these levels, with a break below the $73.12 swing-low required to bring a more negative look into play. Until then, further upside looks likely to take hold in a bid to push back into the key $76.30 resistance level. Source: ProRealTime