MongiIG

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage: Indices: Rebound short lived. Europe expected to slip at the start. FX: DXY haven builds on 3½ mth high pushing GBPUSD down to January levels. AUDUSD & USD NOK at levels not seen since November 2020. EURUSD holds 117.72 support for a second day Equities: NFLX little moved missed earnings. Awaiting RMG trading statement and earnings from JNJ & KO. ASML raises its sales growth target Commods: Gold/Silver ratio at highest since November as AG slips, supporting a risk-off attitude to trading. Oil holds 2mth lows https://community.ig.com/igtv/

Cryptocurrency News The price of Bitcoin dropped below $30,000 for the first time since 22nd June on Tuesday morning as the selloff in cryptocurrencies deepened. Other major cryptocurrencies were also trading lower with Ethereum below $1,800 and XRP below $0.53. There was no major fundamental catalyst for the move lower in the cryptocurrency space but some analysts have cited the broad risk-off tone in the market as the reason for the latest leg lower. Yesterday saw heavy selling pressure in equity markets across the globe, with the Dow Jones falling 2.1% and the FTSE 100 lower by 2.3%. However, European indices have shown some signs of recovery on Tuesday morning, with the FTSE 100 up 1.1% and the DAX up 0.9%. Fears over the strength of the global economic recovery, amid the continued spread of the Delta variant, continues to weigh on riskier assets and there are few assets that are more risky than Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. When Bitcoin dropped below $30,000 last month, the retreat below the level lasted just a few hours before bouncing and returning above that level. On a technical basis, the next level of support to the downside could be the $29,000 level before a test of the 22nd June low at $28,900. Below that and some analysts are calling for a drop to as low as $20,000. However, some have argued that the lower price of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies might attract increased institutional investment. At 08:50BST, Bitcoin was trading at $29,800, down 5.8% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum was trading at $1,760, down 7% and XRP at $0.53, down 9%. By Samuel Indyk, 20 July 2021. Investing.com

Gold and Brent crude weakening after initial rebound Gold and Brent crude are losing traction following a period of stabilisation in the wake of Monday’s declines. Source: Bloomberg Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 20 July 2021 Gold losing traction as it attempts to recover Gold fell back into the 76.4% Fibonacci support level yesterday, with the price turning upwards from marginally above the prior swing-high of $1791. While that managed to stave off a bearish breakdown signal, there is a risk of another move lower as price turns lower here. As such, the outlook will be better determined by a break through either $1791 (bearish) or $1834 (bullish). Source: ProRealTime Brent crude easing back after initial Fibonacci support rebound Brent crude found support on the 76.4% Fibonacci support level yesterday, following a sharp decline at the start of the week. While that rebound did start to gain some traction at first, we are seeing some selling pressure come into play here. As such, the ability to remain above that $67.60 level will be key to determining where we go from here. Source: ProRealTime

Delta variant worries but markets mostly watch monetary policy and inflation While the Delta variant has been spreading for several months now, investors now seem to be worried about the consequences for the recovery of economic growth. Indeed, the number of cases in Asia but also in the United Kingdom or in other countries where vaccination campaigns are going well, could lead governments to order new restrictions, or even targeted lockdowns. Australia has also just announced that a third region is entering lockdown and that the one decided in Sydney will be postponed, although it was due to end today. The number of daily cases at the global level published yesterday shows a high since last May, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Beyond the epidemic, it is the inflation data that worries investors, as the general rise in prices continues to accelerate and should lead, sooner or later, central banks to act to prevent an explosion of it. To this end, we will follow the monetary policy decision of the European Central Bank on Thursday. Christine Lagarde will have to try to reassure the markets about the transitional effect of the rise in inflation, in order to justify a monetary policy that is still very accommodative, essential to the continuation of the upward trend in the markets over the past year. The next FOMC will take place next week, followed by household consumer price data. A tense week is to be expected for markets. This week other data will be closely monitored, with the manufacturing PMIs in both Europe and the United States and these could show a slight slowdown, although still firmly in expansion territory. In the oil market, yesterday's sharp drop due to investor concern about the rise in the number of cases of the Delta variant coinciding with the announcement of the agreement on the Opec+ production increase seems to be calming down today. But if the risks regarding the epidemic continue, it could lead to a further decline, as supply increases (OPEC+ agreement) and demand could find itself under pressure (Variant Delta) naturally leading to a downward price balancing. On another topic, we will be paying attention to earnings season, as many S&P500 companies will release their figures for the first half of this week, including Netflix and Philip Morris on Tuesday, Johnson and Johnson, Coca-cola and Verizon communications on Wednesday or Intel, AT&T, American Express and Twitter on Thursday. But next week will be the most intensive regarding earnings, with nearly 50% of the S&P500 in terms of capitalization publishing their results. Remember that next week will also be the week of the Fed's monetary policy decision and the PCE figures. Finally, the cryptocurrency market will be monitored with great attention. The break of the $30,000 threshold, which kept hope of a possible rebound in the short term, has just been broken and this could lead to a sharp acceleration towards the $20,000 target. The break of the $ 28,800, which served 2 times of support on the BTC, will be the important test and its crossing should lead to a return to the old historical high observed in 2017. Vincent BOY Market Analyst Paris, 20 July 2021 IG France

FTSE 100, DAX and Dow regaining ground after sharp selloff FTSE, DAX, and Dow are back on a more positive footing after a sharp decline yesterday. However, risks remain after breakdown below key support. Source: Bloomberg Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 20 July 2021 FTSE 100 rebounds from key support The FTSE 100 saw dramatic losses yesterday, with the index falling to a three-month low in the process. However, we are currently seeing a rebound from the key 6811 region, which represents both the March peak and May low. Despite this, the recent break below 6946 does provide a warning sign that we could see further weakness despite this current rebound. As such, while we could see further short-term upside, a break through 7151 would be required to bring about a more reliable bullish outlook. Until then, this current rebound could falter as we move towards horizontal (69.46) and Fibonacci (7020-7070) resistance. Source: ProRealTime DAX rebounds from Fibonacci support The DAX has similarly experienced a bout of selling of late, with the index hitting a two-month low yesterday. However, that selloff has taken us back into the 76.4% Fibonacci support level which held up as new support. Much like the FTSE, the subsequent rebound has now taken us back into the previous breakdown level (15304). This will be a key line in the sand for us to break through if the index is going to continue its ascent. A break up through that level would signal a potential protracted move higher towards the 15522-15634 deep Fibonacci zone. Source: ProRealTime Dow Jones on the rise after sharp slump into Fibonacci support The Dow fell back below the 34113 support level yesterday, with price retracing into the wider 61.8% threshold at 33838. With a clear long-term uptrend still in play, this latest pullback looks likely to resolve with a move higher unless we see a break below the June low of 33060. As such, there is a good chance we could see the index bottom out here. However, we should also be aware of the risk that price falls back towards the 76.4% Fibonacci support at 33540. For now, it looks likely we will see further upside to retrace more of the ground lost since Friday’s peak of 35093. Source: ProRealTime

IBM Earnings, Revenue beat in Q2 © Reuters. IBM Earnings, Revenue beat in Q2 Investing.com - IBM (NYSE:IBM) reported on Monday second quarter earnings that beat analysts' forecasts and revenue that topped expectations. IBM announced earnings per share of $2.33 on revenue of $18.75B. Analysts polled by Investing.com anticipated EPS of $2.32 on revenue of $18.29B. IBM shares are up 9% from the beginning of the year and are trading at $140.75 , down-from-52-week-high.They are under-performing the S&P 500 which is up 13.46% from the start of the year. IBM shares gained 1.96% in after-hours trade the report. IBM follows other major Technology sector earnings this month IBM's report follows an earnings missed by Taiwan Semiconductor on Thursday, who reported EPS of $0.929 on revenue of $13.35B, compared to forecasts EPS of $0.9296 on revenue of $13.23B. Accenture had beat expectations on June 24 with third quarter EPS of $2.4 on revenue of $13.26B, compared to forecast for EPS of $2.24 on revenue of $12.81B Investing.com

LONDON (Reuters) - Seven in 10 institutional investors expect to invest in or buy digital assets in the future, although price volatility is the main barrier for new entrants, a study by Fidelity's cryptocurrency business found. More than half of the 1,100 institutional investors surveyed globally by Coalition Greenwich on behalf of Fidelity Digital Assets between December and April said they had digital asset investments. Around 90% of those interested in investing in future said they expected their company's or their clients' portfolios to include digital asset investments within the next five years, the research found. This included direct cryptocurrency investments or exposure through stocks of cryptocurrency companies or other investment products. Those surveyed included high net worth investors, family offices, digital and traditional hedge funds, financial advisors and endowments. Launched in 2018, Fidelity Digital Assets is the cryptocurrency business of Boston-based Fidelity Investments and offers institutional investors custody and execution services for assets such as bitcoin. The company was one of the first mainstream financial services providers to embrace cryptocurrencies, which increasingly have attracted established financial institutions. TP ICAP (LON:NXGN) the world's biggest inter-dealer broker, late last month said it was launching a cryptocurrency trading platform with Fidelity and Standard Chartered (LON:STAN)'s digital assets custody unit. Despite the mainstream interest, cryptocurrency prices and trading volumes have slumped. Bitcoin has fallen around 50% since its high in April. The firms surveyed cited price volatility as the biggest obstacle for new investors, followed by the lack of fundamentals needed to assess value and concerns around market manipulation. In a survey last month JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), found only 10% of institutional investment firms trade cryptocurrencies, with nearly half labeling the emerging asset class as "rat poison" or predicting it would be a temporary fad. By Anna Irrera, 20 July 2021. Investing.com

Gold rose as the spread of the delta coronavirus variant threatens the world’s exit from the pandemic, boosting haven demand. The dollar was up on Tuesday morning in Asia, with investors turning to safe-haven assets as concerns over the impact of COVID-19 outbreaks involving the Delta variant on economic recovery remain. The greenback remained near multi-month highs against its riskier Australian counterpart and the pound, alongside the Japanese yen. New waves of Covid-19 are challenging previous optimistic assumptions about the pace of the global economic recovery. Highlighting the change in investor mood, long-term Treasury yields plunged to the lowest levels since February on Monday -- aiding non-interest bearing gold -- and the S&P 500 fell the most in two months. The U.S. on Monday warned citizens against travel to the U.K. and Indonesia, while hospitalizations in Texas rose the most since April and Southeast Asia reels from a wave of infections. The resurgent virus threatens to delay re-opening plans, and gives central banks more incentive to extend ultra-easy monetary policy. Bullion has rebounded in the past month to trade above $1,800 an ounce after a volatile year tied to shifting expectations for economic prospects and the pace of monetary tightening. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,818.25 an ounce by 10:27 a.m. in Shanghai. Platinum gained 1%, while palladium and silver steadied. ©2021 Bloomberg L.P. 20 July 2021. Investing.com

WHAT IS THE NUMBER ONE MISTAKE TRADERS MAKE? Big financial market volatility and growing access for the average person have made active trading very popular, but the influx of new traders has met with mixed success. There are certain patterns which may separate profitable traders from those who ultimately lose money. And indeed, there is one particular mistake that in our experience gets repeated time and time again. What is the single most important mistake that led to traders losing money? Here is a hint – it has to do with how we as humans relate to winning and losing Our own human psychology makes it difficult to navigate financial markets, which are filled with uncertainty and risk, and as a result the most common mistakes traders make have to do with poor risk management strategies. Traders are often correct on the direction of a market, but where the problem lies is in how much profit is made when they are right versus how much they lose when wrong. Bottom line, traders tend to make less on winning trades than they lose on losing trades. Before discussing how to solve this problem, it is a good idea to gain a better understanding of why traders tend to make this mistake in the first place. A SIMPLE WAGER – UNDERSTANDING DECISION MAKING VIA WINNING AND LOSING We as humans have natural and sometimes illogical tendencies which cloud our decision-making. We will draw on simple yet profound insight which earned a Noble Prize in Economics to illustrate this common shortfall. But first a thought experiment: What if I offered you a simple wager based on the classic flip of a coin? Assume it is a fair coin which is equally likely to show “Heads” or “Tails”, and I ask you to guess the result of a single flip. If you guess correctly, you win $1,000. Guess incorrectly, and you receive nothing. But to make things interesting, I give you Choice B—a sure $400 gain. Which would you choose? EXPECTED RETURN Choice A 50% chance of $1000 & 50% chance of $0 $500 Choice B $400 $400 From a logical perspective, Choice A makes the most sense mathematically as you can expect to make $500 and thus maximize profit. Choice B isn’t wrong per se. With zero risk of loss you could not be faulted for accepting a smaller gain. And it goes without saying you stand the risk of making no profit whatsoever via Choice A—in effect losing the $400 offered in Choice B. It should then come as little surprise that similar experiments show most will choose “B”. When it comes to gains, we most often become risk averse and take the certain gain. But what of potential losses? Consider a different approach to the thought experiment. Using the same coin, I offer you equal likelihood of a $1,000 loss and $0 in Choice A. Choice B is a certain $400 loss. Which would you choose? EXPECTED RETURN Choice A 50% chance of -$1000 & 50% chance of $0 -$500 Choice B -$400 -$400 In this instance, Choice B minimizes losses and thus is the logical choice. And yet similar experiments have shown that most would choose “A”. When it comes to losses, we become ‘risk seeking’. Most avoid risk when it comes to gains yet actively seek risk if it means avoiding a loss. A hypothetical coin flip exercise is hardly something to lose sleep over, but this natural human behavior and cognitive dissonance is clearly problematic if it extends to real-life decision making. And, it is indeed this dynamic which helps to explain one of the most common mistakes in trading. Losses hurt psychologically far more than gains give pleasure. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky published what has been called a “seminal paper in behavioral economics” which showed that humans most often made irrational decisions when faced with potential gains and losses. Their work wasn’t specific to trading but has clear implications for our studies. The core concept was simple yet profound: most people make economic decisions not on expected utility but on their attitudes towards winning and losing. It was simply understood that a rational person would make decisions purely based on maximizing gains and minimizing losses, yet this is not the case; and this same inconsistency is seen in the real world with traders… We ultimately aim to turn a profit in our trades; but to do so, we must force ourselves to work past our natural emotions and act rationally in our trading decisions. If the ultimate goal were to maximize profits and minimize losses, a $500 gain would completely offset a $500 loss. This relationship is not linear, however; the illustration below gives us an approximate look at how most might rank their “Pleasure” and “Pain” derived from gains and losses. PROSPECT THEORY: LOSSES TYPICALLY HURT FAR MORE THAN GAINS GIVE PLEASURE Figure 3. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons The negative feeling experienced from a $500 loss can be substantially more than the positive feeling experienced from a $500 gain, and experiencing both would leave most feeling worse despite causing no monetary loss. In practice, we need to find a way to straighten that utility curve—treat equivalent gains and losses as offsetting and thus become purely rational decision-makers. This is nonetheless far easier said than done. Figure 4. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons A HIGH WIN PERCENTAGE SHOULD NOT BE THE PRIMARY GOAL Your primary goal should be to find trades which give you an edge and present an asymmetrical risk profile. This means your primary objective should be to achieve a robust “Risk/Reward” (R/R) ratio, which is simply the ratio of how much you have at risk versus how much you gain. Let’s say you are right about 50% of the time, a reasonable expectation. Your gains and losses need to have at least a 1:1 risk/reward ratio if you stand to at least break even. To tilt the math in your favor, a trader making money on roughly 50% of his/her trades needs to aim for a higher unit of reward versus risk, say 1.5:1 or even 2:1 or greater. Too many traders get hung up on trying to achieve a high win percentage, which is understandable when you think about the research we looked at earlier regarding loss aversion. And, in your own experiences you almost certainly recognize the fact that you don’t like losing. But from a logical standpoint, it isn’t realistic to expect to be right all the time. Losing is just part of the process, a fact that as a trader you must get comfortable with. It is more realistic and beneficial to achieve a 45% win rate with a 2:1 R/R ratio, than it is to be right on 65% of your trade ideas, but with only a 1:2 risk/reward profile. In the short run the gratification of “winning” more often may make you feel good, but over time not netting any gains will lead to frustration. And a frustrated mind will almost certainly lead to more mistakes. The following table illustrates the math well. Over the course of a 20 trade sample, you can see clearly how a favorable risk/reward profile coupled with more losers than winners can be more productive than an unfavorable risk/reward profile coupled with a much greater number of winners. The trader making money on 45% of trades with a 2:1 R:R profile comes out ahead, while the trader with the 65% win rate, but making only half as much on winners versus losers, comes out at a slight net-loss. Who would you rather be? The trader who ends up positive 7 units but loses more often than they win, or the one who ends up slightly negative but gets the gratification of “being right” more often. The choice appears to be easy. USE STOPS AND LIMITS – GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT Humans aren’t machines, and working against our natural biases requires effort. Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading. A great way to do this is to set up your trade with Stop-Loss and Limit orders from the beginning. But don’t set them for the sake of setting them to achieve a specific ratio. You will want to still use your analysis to determine where the most logical prices are to place your stops and limit orders. Many traders use technical analysis, which allows them to identify points on the charts that may invalidate (trigger your stop-loss) or validate your trade (trigger the limit order). Determining your exit points ahead of time will help ensure you pursue the proper reward/risk ratio (1:1 or higher) from the outset. Once you set them, don’t touch them. (One exception: you can move your stop in your favor to lock in profits as the market moves in your favour.) There will inevitably be times a trade moves against you, triggers your stop loss, and yet ultimately the market reverses in the direction of the trade you were just stopped out of. This can be a frustrating experience, but you have to remember this is a numbers game. Expecting a losing trade to turn in your favor every time exposes you to additional losses, perhaps catastrophic if large enough. To argue against stop losses because they force you to lose is very much self-defeating—this is their very purpose. Managing your risk in this way is a part of what many traders call “money management”. It is one thing to be on the right side of the market, but practicing poor money management makes it significantly more difficult to ultimately turn a profit. GAME PLAN: TYING IT ALL TOGETHER Trade with stops and limits set to a reward/risk ratio of 1:1, and preferably higher Whenever you place a trade, make sure that you use a stop-loss order. Always make sure that your profit target is at least as far away from your entry price as your stop-loss is, and again, as we stated previously, you should ideally aim for an even larger risk/reward ratio. Then you can choose the market direction correctly only half the time and still net a positive return in your account. The actual distance you place your stops and limits will depend on the conditions in the market at the time, such as the volatility, and where you see support and resistance. You can apply the same reward/risk ratio to any trade. If you have a stop level 40 points away from entry, you should have a profit target 40 points or more away to achieve at least a 1:1 R/R ratio. If you have a stop level 500 points away, your profit target should be at least 500 points away. To summarize, get comfortable with the fact that losing is part of trading, set stop-losses and limits to define your risk ahead of time, and aim to achieve proper risk/reward ratios when planning out trades. DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. Article by Paul Robinson (Strategist), 19 July 2021. DailyFX

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage: Volatility hits 2mth high as markets crushed by Covid fears Indices: Europe & US trading today’s 24hr mkts at yesterday’s closing lows NKY and ASX initially fell but now seeing some buying FX: USD safety choice at 3½ mth high. EURUSD testing 117.72 support. GBPUSD testing 136.70 support. Cmdty FX continue to break new short ground Equities: BLT down 2% in Aus on update, UBS beats Q2 ests. Awaiting EZJ. IBM stk up 4% on strongest rev in 3yrs. NFLX today. AAPL delays return to work on Covid. COIN the way to play BTC below $30k Commods: Brent crashes below $70 on demand worries. Gold initially down but ended holding its ground. Base metals and Lumber up https://community.ig.com/igtv/

Alphabet has made huge gains over the past year, and has found a new lease on life as money flows back into growth names. But will earnings meet already-high expectations? Source: Bloomberg Revenue Price Dividend Valuation Dividend yield Moving average Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 19 July 2021 When does Alphabet report earnings? Alphabet publishes its most recent earnings on 27 July. Alphabet earnings – what to expect Revenue is expected to rise 46% to $56 billion, while earnings per share (EPS) are forecast to rise 90% to $19.26. Advertising revenue continues to be the main slab of revenue for Apple, allowing it to fund loss-making expansion in areas such as cloud-computing, in which it competes with Amazon and Microsoft. For Alphabet, regulatory scrutiny continues to loom large, and will continue to be a major headache in coming quarters. But while fines may keep coming, they still amount to a drop in the ocean in terms of Alphabet’s revenue, and if not accompanied with real regulatory action, will represent only a passing trouble in the longer term, an excuse for regular selloffs but not a fundamental change in direction. Alphabet – valuation and broker ratings Like others in the growth/tech space, Alphabet continues to trade on a relatively high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, at 32.11, with no dividend yield at present. Brokers rate Alphabet highly, with 16 ‘strong buys’ and 28 ‘buys’, and just two ‘hold’ recommendations. Alphabet share price Alphabet seems unstoppable, having enjoyed a tremendous rally since September. Dips have been bought repeatedly, and since May a steady and quiet rally has provided very little chance for dip buyers to get involved. The price sits close to a new record high, having bounced in early May from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $2470. It is unlikely that this quiet rally will go on forever, so some caution might be warranted now, but with a clear eye on the steady trend. Source: ProRealTime Alphabet strides ahead Fundamentals and technicals continue to back Alphabet, with the ad business powering expansion elsewhere. Growth stocks are still in high demand, and the recent inflow back into tech stocks since May seems to suggest a return to growth stocks after the ‘value’ mania of the early part of 2021.

Find out what to expect from Boeing’s earnings results, how they will affect Boeing share price, and how to trade Boeing’s earnings. Source: Bloomberg Shares Boeing Price Airline Boeing 787 Dreamliner Market sentiment Monte Safieddine | Market analyst, Dubai | Publication date: Monday 19 July 2021 When is Boeing’s results date? Boeing is expected to report its second quarter earnings on Wednesday, 28 July, before the market open. Boeing share price: forecasts from Q2 results The focus since the start of the year has been on the reflation and reopening trade, and while the second quarter (Q2) saw fresh record highs for the Wall Street, it hasn’t translated into price gains for Boeing, the aircraft manufacturer whose share price is hardly up since the start of the year and definitely down since the start of last quarter, and as of late an underperformer of the key index. International travel, while picking up in comparison to last year remains tested globally, and more specifically in regions that have yet to fully re-open, and that’s not including current (or future) Covid-19 variants keeping lockdowns in place, or forcing governments into increasing restrictions. There’s plenty to digest that’ll be factored into future earnings, as the latest hasn’t been positive for the airplane maker, cutting its delivery target for the 787 Dreamliner planes and reducing production rates temporarily on a new defect that will force it to spend more time on those within its inventory yet to be delivered. There’s also the partial cancellation of the 737 MAX order from flydubai. The positives for the past quarter have been that deliveries have no doubt improved with the first half 156 planes, nearly the amount for all of last year, also picking up on the orders front thanks to the 270 order from United Airlines, 200 of which going to Boeing’s 737 MAX. Big orders don’t translate into bigger profit margins however and especially when significant bulk orders from a few key airlines gives the latter the negotiation power, a theme to note in what remains a tested industry that’s still very much vulnerable. So what about the numbers? Earnings per share (EPS) haven’t been positive since the last quarter of 2019, and that trend of negative figures look set to continue for an EPS reading averaged at -$0.72, not as bad as losses suffered in recent quarters, but a figure below zero nonetheless. And, there have been plenty of cases where actual numbers veered far from expectations. Revenue is expected to move higher from $15.2 billion to nearly $18 billion. Its share price is near the lower end of price targets from analysts, testing their majority buy recommendations (source: finance.yahoo.com). Trading Boeing’s Q2 results: technical overview and trading strategies Technicals hold far less relevance when it comes to fundamental events, and that means levels likelier than not to break even if we’re looking at the mid-term weekly overview as opposed to the short-term daily, the latter having little chance of levels holding on any volatile moves. A brief glance at the weekly chart below and its looking weak, prices beneath its key long-term moving averages (MA), which is the 50, 100, and 200-day MA’s, and at the lower end of the Bollinger band, its average directional movement index (ADX) not trending just yet with a reading that’s been dropping. It’s looking far worse on the short-term daily technical overview, most of its key technical indicators in the red and with an ADX that has tilted into trending territory, a classification more befitting of a stalling bear trend. More bearish movement will be needed to shift the overview in the weekly time frame to match that of shorter-term time frames, for now consolidatory but with negative technical bias. Fading strategies are at greater risk of getting stopped out and puts one of the conformist strategies into the riskier category, and those looking to sell into price gains can consider selling after a reversal due to volatility from the fundamental event, contrarian breakout strategies on any persistence in the move outperforming should it translate into a trend move thereafter. Source: IG Boeing weekly chart Source: IG charts IG client sentiment* and short interest for Boeing shares Retail bias has been a consistent extreme buy and unchanged since the start of last week at a staggeringly high 97%, overall beneficiaries on the recovery from sub-$100 pandemic lows but tested as of late on the pullback in its price from over $273 a month ago to below $220 at the end of last week. When it comes to short interest (according to shortsqueeze.com), its far less than that of say Tesla, for Boeing at only 1.61% of the float on 9,410,000 shares shorted from a total of 584,090,000 shares floated, dropping from 10 million prior. Source: IG *The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of this morning, 8am, for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.

After a stellar year, Microsoft looks well-positioned for further growth and further gains in its shares. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 19 July 2021 When is Microsoft earning’s date? Microsoft reports earnings on 27 July. Microsoft earnings – what to expect Microsoft is expected to report revenue of $44 billion, up 16%, while earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise 30% to $1.90. Earnings season this time rolls around when Microsoft stock has already hit a new record high. The last set of quarterly results beat forecasts, accompanied by strong guidance for the remainder of its year, together with the largest overall growth in revenue since 2018. Growth prospects for its key cloud computing division look good, after a year in which its share of the SaaS market rose to 19.7%. Other parts of the group, including its Dynamics business, are also increasing market share and projecting a further shift towards a subscription-based model. Microsoft earnings – valuation and broker ratings At 38 times earnings and with a yield of 0.8%, Microsoft is hardly a bargain. But it is still a quality stock, with good growth in earnings expected, and solid momentum behind the share price. Unsurprisingly, Microsoft remains popular with brokers, with 37 ‘strong buy’ or ‘buy’ recommendations and just two ‘holds’, with no sell recommendations. Microsoft shares – technical analysis After the plunge of early 2020, Microsoft shares have recovered their poise, rallying steadily since April and showing no sign of slowing down. Repeated higher highs and higher lows have maintained the trend, and the price is still holding firmly above the 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages (DMA). Trendline support from late September is some distance away, and after a 17% rally from the May low some consolidation and weakness might not be surprising. Source: ProRealTime A solid performer, with more to come This is a market that looks for quality in its winners, and Microsoft falls squarely into this category. Revenue growth is strong, the group has a solid plan for the quarters to come and the stock price continues to rally. So far, there seems little sign of a major shift in performance or sentiment.

Register to seminar here. Register to seminar here.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY head lower, as havens gain ground EUR/USD and GBP/USD head lower as the dollar strengths, although USD/JPY is also on the back foot as traders favour yen as a haven. Source: Bloomberg Forex United States dollar Japanese yen USD/JPY EUR/USD GBP/USD Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 19 July 2021 EUR/USD heading lower after recent retracement EUR/USD is heading back down towards the $1.1772 support level this morning, with the pair building on the recent downtrend to post yet another deep retracement and subsequent sell-off. With that in mind, we are looking for further short-term downside here, with a break up through the prior swing high of $1.1881 required to negate the ongoing bearish outlook. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD breaks support to bring three-month low GBP/USD has slipped below $1.3731 this morning, with the selling pressure seen on Friday carrying into a new week. That break brings us a fresh three-month low, although we could go further than that if price manages to break below $1.367. That support level represents the next major threshold to overcome, below which we would be looking t a five-month low. For now, the break below $1.3731 provides a bearish continuation signal, with a rise through $1.391 required to bring a more bullish view. Source: ProRealTime USD/JPY falls back towards key support USD/JPY has slipped back into trendline support, following a failed rebound which ended at the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. The subsequent pullback has taken us back down into a confluence of ¥109.71 and trendline support. That looks likely to bring another bout of significant losses if broken. As such, watch for a move back below the ¥109.71 level to provide a fresh bearish outlook for the days ahead. Conversely, a break up through the ¥110.70 level would be required to bring a more positive outlook for the pair. Source: ProRealTime See an FX opportunity?

Gold stumbles as oil edges down Gold prices are attempting to recover from the recent downward move, while oil’s current pullback has reached the 50-day moving average. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 19 July 2021 Gold Gold's rally has encountered a serious check, stalling at $1830 and dropping back towards $1800. This is a possible lower high, but it may still be too early to tell. Further declines below $1800 would reinforce the negative view, while a bounce back above $1815 would begin to provide hope that the brief pullback is at an end. Source: ProRealTime WTI Oil has returned to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $69.90, after a run higher from late May that saw it reach fresh three-year highs. This retracement establishes a potential higher low in due course, since the uptrend is firmly intact. Further declines below $69.90 would head towards $67.85 and then $65.46. Source: ProRealTime

Indices still on the back foot after recent losses Stock markets are struggling as a new week gets underway, with European markets in the red in early trading. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 19 July 2021 FTSE 100 Friday’s decline has resumed today, with the FTSE 100 at its lowest level since mid-May. After stalling below 7200 since mid-June there is now a full-blown retracement underway. The first area of support to watch is 6875, a region crucial in April and May. Below this 6600 could potentially come into play. Dip buyers will want to see a recovery above 7000 to establish a higher low. Source: ProRealTime DAX Three days of notable losses still leave the DAX heading towards the 15,278 lower bound of the recent trading range. A break below this brings 15,000 into view, with dips just below this around 14,950 finding buyers back in April. As yet the buyers do not appear to have any ability to hold back this market from further declines. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 The S&P 500 has gapped lower and is looking to push back towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at 4244. Since late January pullbacks have either found support at the moving average or have briefly pushed below it before rebounding. Buyers will be watching to see if the same thing occurs this time. Source: ProRealTime

IBM, Netflix, Twitter Earnings Eyed as Nasdaq 100 Faces "Reality Check" NASDAQ 100 FORECAST: BULLISH The Nasdaq 100 index pulled back from record levels as earnings season arrives Investors are anticipating a 64% YoY earnings growth rate for the broader market IBM, Netflix, Intel and Twitter results are in focus this week. What will markets look for? A slew of upbeat bank results kicked off a robust Q2 earnings season, sending the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices to record highs. 22 S&P 500 companies have reported results so far. Among them, 21 have beaten the Street’s forecasts with an average earnings surprise of +19%. According to Factset, the S&P 500 is expected to deliver an earnings growth rate of 64% YoY for the second quarter, marking the best season in over a decade. The actual growth rate could be even higher as the majority of corporate America tends to give conservative EPS forecasts and deliver positive surprises. Higher EPS readings may effectively bring down the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for major US indices, paving the way for them to drive deeper into record territory. Big tech firms will start to release their results this week, with IBM, Netflix, Intel and Twitter in focus. Here is a brief preview. MAJOR TECH EARNINGS EPS FORECAST – WEEK 19-23 JULY Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX IBM: EPS of $2.275 and revenue of $18.26 billion expected for Q2 The global trend toward digitalization is expected to drive the Cloud and Cognitive Software segment, which has already grown 4% in the first quarter. The acquisition of Red Hat is likely to contribute to cloud revenues too The Global Business Services segment may benefit from rising client investment in digital technologies The departure of Jim Whitehurst, IBM’s former president, may be a focal point on the earnings call NETFLIX: EPS of $2.248 and revenue of $7.323 billion expected for Q2 After a year of booming subscriber growth, Netflix may see some moderation due to a high watermark set during the pandemic Most analysts are anticipating less than 2 million new users added for the quarter Recent price hikes and pent-up demand for outdoor entertainment may feed into uncertainties in Q3 guidance Netflix has attempted to shift away from a subscriber-focused narrative towards more stable average revenue per user (ARPU) metrics INTEL: EPS of $1.065 and revenue of $17.84 billion expected for Q2 Intel is expected to see lower EPS and revenue on a YoY basis While PC and server shipments may be a bright spot, growth in its semiconductor segment remains lagging behind competitors such as Nvidia and AMD TWITTER: EPS of $0.064 and revenue of $1.058 billion expected for Q2 The resumption of live events and sports could drive engagement trends and boost daily active user figures, while advertisers may increase spending amid reopening from Covid lockdowns Stay tuned for more earnings update from DailyFX. Click HERE to download out quarterly equity forecasts. Source: Bloomberg, DailyFX Written by Margaret Yang, 19th July 2021, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Earnings will take center stage in the week ahead as some of the largest U.S. companies from different sectors report Q2 2021 earnings. As the U.S. economic recovery accelerates after the successful rollouts of COVID vaccines, investors will focus on inflationary pressures and whether they are squeezing corporate margins. Riding on earnings optimism, all three major U.S. indices continued their upward trajectory this year, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 Index trading near their record levels. Below, we've short-listed three stocks from different sectors we’re monitoring as Q1 earnings season ramps into full swing: 1. Netflix Streaming entertainment giant Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) reports Q2 earnings on Tuesday, July 20 after the market close. Analysts are expecting $3.1 a share profit on sales of $7.32 billion. NFLX Weekly TTM After rebounding strongly during the COVID-19 pandemic, Netflix stock is losing some steam as subscriber growth slows and competition in the streaming market heats up. In April, the Los Gatos, California-based company reported that the number of net new members during Q1 was 2 million short of its own forecast. As of Friday's $530.31 close, Netflix's shares are down 2% this year, compared with the tech-heavy NASDAQ’s 12% expansion over the same period. This coming week’s earnings report will be crucial if the stock is to break this sluggish cycle and move higher. Netflix has to show it’s well-positioned to outperform its rivals even when the pandemic-triggered surge in user growth is cooling fast. 2. Johnson & Johnson Global healthcare giant Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) will be reporting Q2 earnings before the market opens on Wednesday, July 21. According to analysts’ consensus forecast, the company is forecast to report $2.29 EPS on sales of $22.5 billion for the period. JNJ Weekly TTM Besides the quarterly numbers, investors will be eager to know more about the rollout of its COVID-19 vaccine and its efficacy in protecting against the fast spreading Delta variant. J&J’s shot has struggled to get broad traction amid production problems and after a brief pause in use as regulators investigated reports that some people suffered dangerous blood clots after receiving it. The pause was lifted after 10 days on Apr. 23. Despite the vaccine setback, J&J’s underlying business remains strong as the U.S. economy reopens and hospitals gradually increase elective surgeries after the COVID-19 disruption, which hurt the company’s device business in 2020. Shares of J&J are up 7% this year. They closed on Friday at $168.10. 3. IBM International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) will report its latest quarterly numbers on Monday, July 19, after the market close. Analyst consensus on IBM is for EPS of $2.32 on revenue of $18.29 billion for the quarter ended June 30. IBM Weekly TTM Big Blue, which is in the middle of a major turnaround, is showing some signs that it is succeeding at bringing additional sales from its cloud business. IBM posted its first revenue gain in 11 quarters in April, driven by demand for cloud services. IBM also reported revenue from Red Hat—which it bought in 2019 for $34 billion—had increased 17% in the first quarter. Arvind Krishna, who took over as CEO from Ginni Rometty last April, is focusing on artificial intelligence and the cloud to revive growth. Krishna has reorganized the company’s business around a hybrid-cloud strategy, which allows customers to store data in private servers and on multiple public clouds. Shares of IBM, which closed Friday at $138.90, have gained 10% this year. By Investing.com (Haris Anwar/Investing.com) 18th July 2021.

Oil was down Monday morning in Asia, with prices falling more than 1%. Investors continued to digest the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) agreement to boost output that was reached over the weekend. Brent oil futures fell 1.16% to $72.74 by 11:41 PM ET (3:41 AM GMT) after falling nearly 3% during the previous week. WTI futures slid 1.17% to $70.72, after rolling over to the Sep. 21 contract on Jul. 18. Under the agreement reached on Sunday, the cartel will add 400,000 barrels a day every month from August 2021 onwards until all the output that was halted due to COVID-19 is revived. The agreement also gives Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq, Kuwait and Russia higher baselines against which their output cuts are measured starting in May 2022. Investors breathed a sigh of relief as the dispute between Saudi Arabia and the UAE that saw the last OPEC+ meeting end without an agreement was resolved. Additionally, other longstanding grievances that threatened the cartel’s unity were also resolved. "This agreement should give market participants comfort that the group is not headed for a messy breakup and will not be opening up the production floodgates anytime soon," RBC Capital Markets said in a note. The market also avoided a price war not unlike the one between Saudi Arabia and Russia that saw the black liquid enter negative territory in April 2020. On the supply side, Iran’s first crude export from outside the Persian Gulf and beyond the Strait of Hormuz is also on investors’ radars. The shipment will leave from Jask in the Gulf of Oman, said Vahid Maleki, director of the Jask Oil Terminal. Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases involving the Delta variant continue to increase and cloud the fuel demand outlook as some countries, including Australia and South Korea, reintroduced restrictive measures to curb their latest outbreaks. The U.K. on Saturday reported the highest number of daily COVID-19 cases since January 2021 ahead of England lifting of most restrictive measures on Jul. 19. By Gina Lee, 19th July 2021. Investing.com

The Week Ahead Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week Week commencing 19 July Chris Beauchamp’s insight We are now in the midst of the flood of US earnings, as reporting season moves into high gear. Companies from across the stock market issue earnings, including Netflix, IBM and American Airlines. Economic news includes a rate decision from the ECB and flash PMIs on Friday from around the globe. With stock markets in the US at record highs, and the dollar still looking strong, the focus remains on the US economic recovery and the outlook for inflation and central bank policy, with the latter in focus at the ECB meeting. Week ahead video. Economic reports Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Weekly view Company announcements Monday 19 July Tuesday 20 July Wednesday 21 July Thursday 22 July Friday 23 July Full-year earnings Mulberry Half/ Quarterly earnings Sthree, IBM UBS, Chipotle, Netflix, Halliburton St Modwen Properties, Verizon, Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson Centrica, Unilever, Moneysupermarket.com, Twitter, Intel, Snap, American Airlines Beazley, Schlumberger, Honeywell Trading update Carr's Group easyJet, Wise Royal Mail Wickes, Britvic, Daily Mail & General Vodafone Dividends FTSE 100: Persimmon FTSE 250: Cranswick, Ninety One, Investec, Pennon, Micro Focus Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage: 16mths on from 1st lockdown UK ‘celebrates’ Freedom Day with a certain amount of trepidation Indices: Europe expected down after declines in US and in Asia NKY on for lowest close since January FX: Commodity currencies short trade continues. This week minutes from BoJ & BoC. ECB rate decision on Thursday Equities: ZOOM buys FIVE9 for $14.7bln. Earnings IBM ahead of a big week for tech Commods: Oil down as OPEC+ agrees to supply market with more oil. No let up in short trade around Lumber. Gold little moved from Friday’s lows https://community.ig.com/igtv/

crowded longs in crude oil - might signal a difficult time in the short term for further gains

OPEC Shoots Itself In The Foot OPEC’s non-action leaves the world wondering and production policy in question - Three reasons the oil price may still head a lot higher OPEC cannot get its act together. With no agreement on production policy for the coming months, the cartel members appear to be on their own. While discussions will continue, the gulf between the UAE and other members, including Russia, could be too wide to bridge. The cartel’s future could hang in the balance of a compromise at a time when the United States handed the group the pricing power in the petroleum market on a silver platter. Crude oil’s price action in the wake of OPEC’s discord is impressive. At least three factors could send the price a lot higher over the coming months and years: The Fed may continue to call inflationary “transitory,” “temporary,” or anything else other than what it is, the legacy of a tidal wave of central bank liquidity and a tsunami of government stimulus. Inflation is bullish for all commodities, and crude oil is no exception. The conflict between the UAE and other OPEC members and Russia is a microcosm of the turbulent state of the Middle East. The region is home to over half the world’s petroleum reserves. With US output declining because of the greener path for US energy policy, any events that disrupt supplies, refining, or logistical routes in the area could dramatically impact oil’s price. Crude oil has become a lot more sensitive to events in the Middle East with the Biden administration in the Oval Office. NYMEX crude oil futures moved marginally above the October 2018 to the highest price since 2014. The price remains a stone’s throw away from the highs, which could be a gateway to triple-digit oil prices. OPEC tried to shoot itself in the foot at the latest biannual meeting, but US energy policy pushed the foot out of the line of fire. OPEC looks likely to squeeze US consumers with higher prices despite the cartel’s incompetence. Meanwhile, on July 14, news that OPEC+ reached a provisional agreement to taper the production cuts by 400,000 bpd with a compromise that allows the UAE to increase output from 3.2 mbpd to 3.65 mbpd starting in April 2022 weighed on the oil futures market. While crude oil is overdue for a downside correction, the strength of demand is likely to lead to a higher low. US producers have been increasing output, but the shift in US energy policy likely created a supply ceiling as fossil fuel production runs contrary to the Biden administration’s green path. By Andy Hecht, 16th July 2021. Investing.com

Indonesia overtakes India as Asia's new Covid-19 epicenter. Becoming one of the highest in the world with daily Covid cases. Indonesia reported 54,517 new cases of Covid-19, authorities said Wednesday, a single-day national record and dire warning sign for the world's fourth-most populous country. For more on this news article click this link here, CNN By Masrur Jamaluddin and Joshua Berlinger, CNN. 16th July 2021.